The New TV Season: Reboots and Reality Shows Are Sinking.
Fallon Counters a Move by Colbert.
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By John Koblin
·
Nov. 25, 2018
Two months into the new television season, there’s big ratings news: The N.F.L. is back!
Then there’s … everything else.
Viewership for entertainment programming on the broadcast
networks continues to fall as audiences flock to streaming services like
Netflix, Hulu and Amazon. Among adults under the age of 50, the number of
viewers for network shows has tumbled an additional 10 percent this season.
Leadership changes at the four major broadcast networks
have added to the uncertainty. Fox, ABC and NBC have all announced new heads of
entertainment since September, and CBS ousted its longtime leader, Leslie
Moonves, after multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct.
As for the shows themselves, medical dramas have made a
comeback, reboots and reality shows have lost some of their luster, a veteran producer
has proved his mettle yet again and a new front in the late-night wars has
opened between Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Fallon.
Oh, and football. Viewers still can’t get enough, which
has come as a relief to network executives.
Even with the internal upheaval and the continued
migration of viewers to streaming services and premium cable outlets, the
networks can still point to one sign of relevance: Their collective audience,
while shrinking, is still huge. With several prime-time series moving into
midseason hiatus, let’s look at the highlights and lowlights so far.
Reboots Are No Longer a Sure Bet
The good news for the “Murphy Brown” revival on CBS? Its
audience is stable.
That’s about it.
The reboot of the classic sitcom has largely been a
ratings dud. In the 18-to-49 age bracket, “Murphy Brown” ranks 43rd among
entertainment programs, drawing roughly the same number of viewers as “The Cool
Kids,” a Friday night comedy on Fox about retirees.
The show, which returned Candice Bergen to a role she
inhabited through much of the 1990s, faced several built-in
challenges. Many of its stars had been off the air for more than a
decade, and episodes from its original run, which ended in 1998, are not
available online, meaning it had not been able to cultivate a new audience.
Perhaps more important, the series has failed to generate
the kind of buzz it had in the days when Vice President Dan Quayle
attacked it for “mocking the importance of fathers” after the title character
gave birth to a boy in the 1992 season finale.
Networks have employed the reboot strategy in recent
years as a way to give viewers shows that are at once new and familiar. But as
the tactic has lost its novelty, it has become less of a sure thing.
“Magnum P.I.” — which returned to CBS with the
stubble-faced Jay Hernandez taking over the role once played by the mustachioed
Tom Selleck — is performing at about the same level as “Murphy Brown.” And
“Will & Grace,” the groundbreaking sitcom that NBC brought back with much
fanfare in 2017, has lost more than half its audience from a year ago.
Fox has seen solid returns from “Last Man Standing,” a
comedy starring Tim Allen that was revived this season after it was canceled by
ABC in May 2017. And even without Roseanne Barr, “The Conners” has done well
for ABC, generating numbers that suggest it is a sustainable draw. Through five
episodes, its ratings are on a par with the CBS hit “Young Sheldon,” good
enough for seventh place among entertainment programs. It is also ABC’s
highest-rated sitcom.
It’s Morning in Late Night
The audience for late night is smaller than that of prime
time, but the battle between “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” on CBS and
“The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” on NBC is perhaps fiercer than ever.
Viewers made their decision on which of the two late-night
leaders they preferred in the opening weeks of the Trump administration, when
Mr. Colbert, whose monologues regularly skewer the president, leapfrogged the
fun-and-games-minded Mr. Fallon in total audience. Mr. Colbert has since become
the runaway winner, typically leading his main rival by more than a million
viewers a night.
But while the CBS show was on the rise, “The Tonight
Show” managed to cling to something valuable: A lead in the 18-to-49 age
bracket prized by advertisers.
Mr. Colbert has lately cut that lead to a mere 1,000
viewers. In an effort to keep him from further loosening Mr. Fallon’s grip on
younger viewers, NBC made a big move last month, installing Jim Bell,
a former longtime executive producer of “Today” and the current maestro of the
network’s Olympics coverage, as the new “Tonight Show” boss.
In handing the show to Mr. Bell, NBC seemed to mimic a
strategy employed by CBS in 2016, when it placed Chris Licht, a former producer
of “CBS This Morning,” in charge of “The Late Show.” Under Mr. Licht’s
guidance, the show made its steady climb to late-night ratings dominance.
Mr. Bell will have his work cut out for him. Nearly all
of the late-night shows have had ratings decreases, but none have dropped like
“The Tonight Show.” In the two years since President Trump was elected, Mr.
Fallon has lost 28 percent of his audience, according to Nielsen. More worrisome
to NBC, Mr. Fallon has lost 41 percent of adults under 50 in that time.
The host’s fortunes seemed to change in September 2016,
when he playfully tousled Mr. Trump’s hair during an interview segment, a
moment that has come to haunt Mr.
Fallon. Mr. Bell will be waiting for another moment that sets social
media aflame — but in a way that brings wayward viewers back to the venerable
NBC franchise.
Dick Wolf, Broadcast Savior
As young viewers flee to streaming services, network
executives are running to Mr. Wolf, the 71-year-old producer.
He accounts for an entire night of programming on NBC,
with his three Chicago-based dramas on Wednesdays. Another of his NBC shows,
“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” continues to deliver consistent
results. And Mr. Wolf has a new series showing promise on CBS, “FBI.”
Mr. Wolf’s five dramas are among the 21 highest-rated
shows on network television. “FBI” is the sixth-most-viewed drama of the
season, with over 12 million viewers a week, according to Nielsen’s
delayed-viewing data.
His empire is likely to grow. CBS is considering
expanding the “FBI” franchise, with the chances of a spinoff series looking
better each week.
Harsh Reality for Reality TV
One thing that is almost totally absent among
television’s top-rated series: reality programming.
Barely squeaking into the top 10 is “The Voice,” the NBC
singing competition whose numbers have slid. “Dancing With the Stars” has
stumbled for ABC, down more than 31 percent this year. Add in a loss of 33
percent in the audience for ABC’s “Shark Tank,” and you have a trend that is
keeping producers of so-called unscripted television awake at night.
“The importance of
reality and competition shows is waning,” said Preston Beckman, a former
executive at NBC and Fox. “None of these shows are the biggest shows on
television anymore. And they were once the drivers.”
The biggest bomb was an ABC talk show hosted by Alec
Baldwin, which seems headed toward cancellation. The network moved it from
Sunday to the prime-time boneyard of Saturday night.
There will be some attempts to reverse the trend. NBC
plans to air a summertime hit, “America’s Got Talent,” in January, to see if
its success can be replicated. “Survivor” keeps chugging away on CBS and
will be back in the spring.
CBS will also debut “The World’s Best,” a talent
competition show from the reality TV masterminds Mark Burnett and Mike Darnell,
immediately after the broadcast of the Super Bowl in February. Mr. Darnell, who
oversaw “American Idol” at Fox, is confident that the genre has not worn out
its welcome.
“You can still get a big smash hit,” Mr. Darnell said.
At this point, the results may suggest otherwise.
Need Viewers? Call a Doctor
A Fox procedural series about emergency medical workers
starring Angela Bassett, “9-1-1,” was a sleeper hit when it arrived at the tail
end of last season.
Co-created by Ryan Murphy, the drama lacks the critical
and cultural cachet of “Pose” or any of Mr. Murphy’s limited series, like
“American Crime Story,” but it has continued to deliver. The show has scored
the fifth-highest ratings among network entertainment programs and is the top
scripted show on Fox.
NBC has scored hits with two new shows, the thriller
“Manifest” and its medical drama “New Amsterdam.” “Manifest” is in third place
among all entertainment shows, but it requires viewers to track intricate
twists and turns, and its numbers have started to slide in recent weeks.
“This Is Us,” also on NBC, is again the No. 1
entertainment program among adults under 50, although its ratings are down from
last year. “The Big Bang Theory,” the CBS stalwart that is scheduled to end its
run next year as the longest-running multicamera
comedy series ever, holds the No. 2 slot.
A notable development: One of television’s sturdiest
genres, the medical drama, is resonating anew. In addition to NBC’s “New
Amsterdam,” ABC has two medical shows, “Grey’s Anatomy” and “The Good Doctor,”
among the ratings leaders. That trend will not be lost to network executives,
said Mr. Beckman.
“There’s a very quiet, subtle increase in medical
dramas,” he said. “And you’ll see more of them. Everybody is getting a little
bit away from the procedurals. And everything’s a trend. Imitation is the
greatest form of flattery in television.”
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