DENVER STATION SWEARS OFF SEATTLE MUSIC

FLASH!
Radio Ink

January 27, 2014

With the Denver Broncos playing the Seattle Seahawks in the Superbowl, Entercom's 99.5-FM The Mountain is banning all Seattle bands and musicians from its airwaves until, the station says, "Denver wins the BIG GAME next Sunday." Morning man Mike Casey, is spearheading the ban. “This is a crucial prep week for the Broncos and I figured that Denver fans want to get all their positive mojo going in that direction. So how could I, in good conscience and good mojo, saturate the Mountain airwaves with Seahawk fan-bands like Heart, Pearl Jam, Hendrix and Nirvana this week? No way!”

Yeah guys...you go! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D. Your Littleton, Colorado neighbor!

Digital Shoppers Expect Cross-Channel Consistency

Monday, Jan. 27, 2014   It's vital to make sure your media marketing department help the local-direct client gain access to your ability to help them with SEO and SEM as it will make their sites more viable. Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.   According to the findings of a new IBM study of more than 30,000 global consumers, the percentage of consumers willing to share their current location via GPS with retailers nearly doubled year-over-year to 36%. 38% of consumers would provide their mobile number for the purpose of receiving text messages and 32% would share their social handles with retailers.   Jill Puleri, IBM Retail Global Industry Leader, says "… today's consumer… conditioned by multiple industries… from healthcare to travel… expects personalized interactions across different channels… " The study found that the five most important omnichannel capabilities to consumers are, in order: Price consistency across shopping channels Ability to ship items that are out of stock in the store directly to their home Option to track the status of an order Consistent product assortment across channels Ability to return online purchases in the store The report says that consumers fall into four distinct groups differentiated by their interest in and use of social, location and mobile technologies while shopping; 19% of consumers surveyed lag behind the majority of the population when it came to using technology to shop 40% of shoppers use social, location and mobile technologies for information gathering, but are not likely to use them to purchase products 29% use social, location and mobile much more extensively, for everything from researching products to ordering goods 12% of consumers surveyed are classified as "Trailblazers," those who use these technologies across channels and base their choice of retailer on whether they make that possible Consumers are increasingly shopping online, says the report. In 2013, 84% of shoppers surveyed chose the store to make their last non-grocery purchase. This year, that figure dropped to 72%. Surprisingly, showrooming is not behind this online growth. While more respondents showroomed this year (8% versus 6% last year), only about 30% of all online purchases actually resulted from showrooming, a drop from nearly 50% last year. 70% of online purchases were made by shoppers that went directly to the web.

'Cultural Relevancy'?

By Juan Aceves Monday, Jan. 27, 2014

Whenever the topic of reaching Hispanic consumers is brought up, we are constantly reminded of the importance of cultural relevancy, even thought I’ve written extensibly about the subject. But exactly what does it mean? And how does a brand empower cultural relevancy as part of their strategy? According to an article in Forbes, “Hispanics are more inclined to build trustworthy relationships with people and companies that take the time to understand who we are and what we represent morally, ethically and culturally.” Of course, knowledge like the technology usage trends amongst Hispanics or about whether Spanish over English is more effective in marketing efforts is undeniably important. Insight into how to use this knowledge as an opportunity to engage Hispanics through the issues that affect them is, perhaps, invaluable. One of the main issues affecting Hispanics is, and has always been, immigration. However, this could be a difficult or even taboo subject to incorporate into a brand’s strategy. On the other hand, in-depth knowledge of not just the topic but of the whole picture could help a brand “empathize” with the community and, as a result, gain their trust and loyalty on a deeper level. For example, a recent study by PEW Research Center shows that in 2012 a whopping 419,384 deportations of undocumented Hispanic immigrants were executed, a record to date. Further research into the subject yielded the surprising fact that Hispanics see unauthorized immigration into the country as having a positive impact in the overall community. Why? Could it be that Latinos see their growing numbers —whether through authorized immigration or not— as a way to achieve a stronger voice? Could this also be a mitigating factor for the prevailing sentiment that they don’t have any clear national leaders? These questions are not answered in the study. And anyone looking to do so would, perhaps, have to conduct a followup survey or even multiple ones. As we know, surveys can be expensive, take time and sometimes lead to more questions than answers —thus requiring more research and involvement on the part of an interested brand. Which could easily be seen as unnecessary and cumbersome by someone just looking for quick answers and a cursory knowledge on how to “connect with Hispanics.” It is common knowledge that many elements are necessary when trying to earn someone’s trust and loyalty. Not unlike a one-on-one relationship, a brand must show genuine interest, deep knowledge about the issues that affect the community, and the willingness to engage in them and take action, in order to build a lasting and mutually beneficial partnership with Hispanics. So. No matter how “sticky," complex, or politically charged these issues may be, an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of them — and their impact in the community as a whole — will lead to the realization that they cannot be separated  from it nor ignored. This is not “optional information.” The brands that understand this and are willing to engage in a holistic way will be, in effect, empowering the community. In fact, many of them already have in place foundations and organizations that could, through outreach efforts, be opening dialogue and contributing to the community’s overall health, thereby making the company’s commitment evident. Brands that act this way, could gain more loyal consumers than the ones that are simply focusing on how to “sell more to” or “capture more” of this group’s tremendous buying power. Perhaps cultural relevancy is on a very basic level nothing more than good, old empathy

What B2B Marketers Need To Know For '14

Marketing Daily

by Elizabeth Chambers, Yesterday, 8:02 AM

While some social networks will bow in the next few years others will decline..but the fact that media sales execs still think they are TV, radio and cable business and all they have to do is compete with one another and tip their hats to the ad agencies read below as we enter an exciting new frontier of media marketing capturing consumer attention and wallets. The game is rapidly changing and your game...if you sell ads to other businesses such as local merchants...is B2B. Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

With new social media platforms and measurement tools appearing around every corner, it’s often difficult for marketers to pinpoint where their time and money is best spent. The new year will see social media becoming a key aspect of B2B marketing, and those working to create the perfect strategy will be pulled in more directions than ever before. The following are nine predictions to stay on top of if you want your social media program to not only stay afloat in 2014, but to thrive.

 

1. Businesses will increase investment in social media. Companies will recognize that social media is not just something to consider. It is a must-have. As a result, those who can afford it are likely to hire social media managers, coordinators or specialists to take on the task. Big organizations that refuse to fully embrace social media marketing will fall behind competitors when it comes to credibility and visibility.

 

2. The importance of image-based networks will skyrocket. In 2013, it became clear that visual content majorly trumped text-only in terms of social media engagement and shareability. In 2014, text-only news will be solidified as old news, and stimulating visuals will be essential to the success of content strategies. Sites that were made for such material, including Pinterest, SlideShare and Tumblr, will stop being seen only as spots to pass along cutesy photos and will gain respect as platforms on which to display industry ideas and insights. Image-centric campaigns reminiscent of Buick’s car design contest orNational Poetry Slam’s social scavenger hunt will thrive under the ease of creating and sharing rich media, and businesses will leverage customer-generated visual content.

 

3. The use of online video for business will rise. Visual content won’t end with photos. As it becomes increasingly easy for the Average Joe with zero film experience to create decent video clips, we’ll see companies increasingly show, not tell, their brand messages. 

 

4. LinkedIn will continue to dominate. This professional network will keep gaining momentum, particularly among B2B marketers. While about half of LinkedIn members surveyed earlier this year noted they spend between zero and two hours per week using the network, according to Social Media Today, activity will likely increase with an improved mobile experience. Content will improve from both a brand and consumer standpoint with options for more focused material, such as Showcase Pages.

 

5. Google+ will gain momentum. Though things were quiet on Google+ for the network’s first few years, it made strides in 2013 and is now, ZDNet reports, the second largest social network globally, boasting 343 million users. The dark horse will continue to surprise critics as game-changing capabilities such as Google Authorship and Google Author Rank build popularity and lift the network to necessity status, giving companies that want a competitive edge in SEO no choice but to jump on board with both feet.

 

6. Twitter will be bigger and better than ever. Now that Twitter is public, streams are likely to be clogged with advertisements and sponsored content. However, users can look forward to a more graphics-based, mobile-friendly experience that allows for richer engagement and more shareable content. Hopefully, the exciting will outweigh the annoying.

 

7. MySpace will make a comeback – for some, at least. The ultimate social media throwback, though until recently only a “mirror-selfie”-riddled memory, is back with a whole new look, feel and purpose: connecting musicians to their fans and industry influencers. Artists will use the network to reach listeners, and, perhaps more importantly, to get their work in front of potential managers and record labels. It won’t be a major player for most industries, but the guys in charge of the makeover – including Justin Timberlake – believe that for the right folks, it will be instrumental. No pun intended.

 

8. Blunders will be rampant. With more companies embracing social media and more channels becoming available, there will be plenty of disasters alongside the successes. Expect many social media screw-ups and apologies, and avoid being one of them by not stretching your digital marketing team too thin.

 

9. Presentations will precede papers. Say goodbye to lengthy white papers and text-crammed SlideShares. B2B marketers will find that they get much further reach from content that is designed to present in engaging and real-time ways. While it will be beneficial to repurpose presentations as written reports, interactive content should be first priority. Think less writing, more webinars, and ask yourself: Could someone live-tweet this? 

 

Is Facebook Headed For Collapse?

The Social Graf

 

by Erik Sass, Yesterday, 12:57 PM

If your marketing team is fraught with the thought of social media overpowering your media ad budgets read the essay below and breath easier! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Facebook may be headed toward the same unhappy fate as its predecessors, Friendster and MySpace, according to a provocative new study from researchers at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, who predict that Facebook will lose 80% of its user base by 2017.
 
Sound crazy? Maybe, maybe not. 

The study, titled “Epidemiological Modeling of Online Social Network Dynamics,” which has not been peer reviewed, applies statistical techniques for the study of contagious diseases to social networks. The model basically treats an online social network like Facebook as a disease that spreads between individuals: an individual is “infected” (becomes a user) after exposure to a certain number of other “infected” people, meaning people who are already using the site.
 
The same principle is then applied, in reverse, to the “recovery” phase: Someone who is using the social network will “recover” (stop using the network) after exposure to a certain number of other non-users, including people who stopped using the network or never joined in the first place. 

The researchers draw their data from Google Trend search query data to provide a measure of the level of Web traffic for a given online social network, focusing on active users rather than mere registered (possibly inactive) users.
 
This model resembles one proposed in a previous study, “Social Resilience in Online Communities: The Autopsy of Friendster,” which identified a “cascade” phenomenon in both the growth and decline of social networks. Similarly, in that model, the probability that an individual will stop using a social network increases with the number of people they know who have left that social network. Both models suggest that the rate of decline can accelerate very quickly once users begin abandoning the social network, leading to a snowball effect finally resulting in mass desertion.
 
There are a few obvious issues about using the infectious disease model to analyze online social networks, which the researchers readily admit they do not address. For example, while recovery from a disease is a biological phenomenon, the decision to leave a social network is social-psychological. That raises the question of what sets the process in motion: The first individuals to recover from a disease do so as a natural function of their immune systems, but why do the first users choose to abandon the social network? 

(As the researchers point out, the model also requires a small “initially recovered” population, meaning a group that never converted in the first place, otherwise, there would be no possibility of general recovery).
 
Nonetheless, assuming the basic approach is valid, the implications are clear, according to the researchers, who believe “the search query data suggests that Facebook has already reached the peak of its popularity and has entered a decline phase, as evidenced by the downward trend in search frequency after 2012.” 

Looking ahead, “Extrapolating the best fit into the future shows that Facebook is expected to undergo rapid decline in the upcoming years, shrinking to 20% of its maximum size by December 2014,” and eventually “losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.”

Why The Big 3 Need To Worry About No. 5

TV Blog

 

by Joe Mandese, 61 minutes ago

The other day I broke a news story reporting that Google is now one of Madison Avenue’s “Big 5.” That’s an old school Madison Avenue reference, for sure, and used to be used by agencies to refer to their biggest suppliers -- the Big 3 TV networks (ABC, CBS and NBC), and then the Big 4 when Fox joined the club. I used that reference on purpose to show that Google is now one of Madison Avenue’s biggest suppliers, because previously, it was seen mainly as a paid-search supplier, and mostly for the the long-tail (smaller advertisers). So why am I bringing this up in TV Blog? Because based on a briefing Google’s top ad execs gave this morning with the New York ad trade press, they’re becoming more like a TV supplier than a search supplier.

 

Not surprisingly, much of the conversation focused on the subject of video, especially Google’s YouTube, but it also covered the Super Bowl, and ways Google is enabling brands to tap into the kind of reach that previously was afforded only to broadcast television networks -- 1.8 billion unique users, to be precise. But Google is also talking a different kind of reach -- and frequency -- game, that I think requires a new way of thinking, and maybe even measuring its audience value.

 

According to Lucas Watson, Google’s vice president of global brand solutions, Google reaches each one of the 1.8 billion users an average of seven times per day, and each of those reach points represents an opportunity to serve a unique ad message to them based on what they are doing at that moment. Interestingly, that may not even be consuming video content on YouTube, but accessing it through another platform that Google can serve an ad to via AdSense.

 

Watson gave the example of a new campaign Procter & Gamble broke for Old Spice, not on YouTube, but on rival video platform Vimeo. Or maybe on ESPN.com, or even Old Spice’s own video channel. By enabling marketers to serve video ads into other destinations, Watson said Google can dramatically expand a brand’s potential reach.

 

“Very little is destination-based,” Watson said, noting that regardless of which destination the user was on, they were experiencing Old Spice’s content and advertising.

I asked Watson whether Google was thinking of developing a new reach planning metric for this approach -- something akin to the TV syndication market’s “gross average audience ratings,” which are generated by repeat airings of the same show, but he said the business isn’t quite there -- yet.

 

While Google may reach its average user seven times per day, unless that user is logged into a registered Google platform, he said Google must rely on third-party audience trackers, such as comScore, and now Nielsen too.

 

Google’s push into video isn’t just impacting the way agencies plan and buy media, added Karen Sauder, industry director for the food, beverage ad restaurants categories at Google, but the way they -- or should I say their clients -- create ads too.

 

Sauder cited a recent campaign Taco Bell developed using 50 YouTube “creators” to develop different versions of campaign executions for its “Fiery DLT” that would be relevant to subscribers of their YouTube channels. One version by YouTube star FreddieW used a 3D printer to replicate a Taco Bell restaurant.

“It was done in a way that was authentic and relevant” to the audience, Sauder said, noting that FreddieW reaches 6 million users. Aside from the cumulative reach across the 50 creators, Taco Bell also got 50 unique creative executions -- something both creative and media shops might want to think about.

 

Location-Based Mobile Ads Forecast To Hit $10.8B In 2017

MobileMarketingDaily

 

by Gavin O'Malley, Jan 16, 2014, 4:44 PM

Delivering on mobile’s full potential, location-based ad targeting is finally ready for the big time.
 
By 2017, spending on location-targeted mobile advertising will reach $10.8 billion, which would represent a 52% share of all mobile ad dollars.
 
That’s according to a new forecast from BIA/Kelsey, which reports that marketers spent $1.4 billion on location-targeted mobile campaigns in 2012.
 
More remarkable, however, is the finding that post-engagement attribution tracking is “already here as a competitive imperative for mobile advertisers, publishers, networks and ad tech providers,” Mike Boland, vice president of content, at BIA/Kelsey, told Mobile Marketing Daily.
 
“Smartphone penetration combined with myriad behavioral and location signals enable better attribution, while advertiser demand for tighter ROI further compels it,” Boland explained. “Tying conversions back to specific ad campaigns is the holy grail of advertising, which will make campaign attribution the mobile battleground of 2014.”

Still, BIA/Kelsey’s forecast is extremely optimistic, considering the nascent state of location targeting and arguably, attribution methods. For example, mobile ad network Thinknear by Telenav recently compared ad exchange-supplied location data with its own location data and found that 26% of exchanges reported locations that were off by more than 10,000 meters. Brands hoping to connect with consumers in a particular retail location would fail miserably a quarter of the time.

These and similar findings partially explain why mobile still only sees 3% of ad dollars, while U.S. consumers currently spend about 12% of their “media time” on mobile devices, according to BIA/Kelsey.
 
Worldwide, Juniper Research recently predicted that spending on smartphone and tablet advertising and marketing programs would grow from $13.1 billion in 2013 to 39.3 billion in 2018.
 
In the Juniper report, author Sian Rowlands noted: “By harnessing Big Data and location information, mobile ads are being better targeted to users.”
 
Attribution -- the marketing model that attempts to attribute sales to multiple touchpoints rather than the last ad consumers click or view -- remains a sore point for many brands and agencies.
 
It is a problem that Chris Knoch, vice president of Strategic Solutions at attribution expert IgnitionOne, knows all too well. “I think people want to kill [attribution] because it’s getting more complicated,” recently told OMMA conference attendees. “If you’re still doing last-click attribution, you are light years behind!”

Teens Up Usage For Connected TVs, Mobile

MediaDailyNews

by Wayne Friedman, Jan 16, 2014, 10:58 AM

Teens' online use of tablets, smartphones and connected TVs, is growing -- now it's up to some four hours a day.

Research company GfK’s MultiMedia Mentor report says that for teens 13-17, time on online grew 37% in the spring of 2013 compared with the first months of 2012. By contrast, online usage in terms of minutes remained essentially flat for other consumers: 18-64, 18-54, and 18-49.

Time on tablets grew 157% to more than a half-hour a day for teens; smartphone time was 72% higher to over an hour a day; and connected TV usage added 86% to 13 minutes a day.

Teens' smartphone ownership jumped to 55% from 35%, with tablet ownership improving to 37% from 18% on year-to-year comparisons.

GfK says much of the growth has been due to inexpensive pricing on tablets and smartphones, as well as a broader array of capabilities for those devices -- streaming video, music, and shopping. In addition, it says laptop/desktop computer usage is also a major device area for teens.

The GfK study tracked eight key media platforms and demographic information from 2,642 online interviews of people 13 to 64 between February and July 2013.

Why TV Ad Spend Will Grow More Than Digital Spend In The Next Five Years

OnlineSpin

 

by Dave Morgan, Yesterday, 4:46 PM

TV ad spend in the U.S. will grow more each year for the next five years than digital video ads will (yes, you read that correctly.)

At the closing panel of  Gridley & Company’s 13^th Annual Marketing, Internet, Financial Technology and Outsourcing Services Conference, -- one of my favorite ad tech banking conferences, held Tuesday in New York -- I predicted that television advertising spend in the U.S. would grow more in real dollars than spend on video ads on the Web, mobile and over-the-top combined, every year for the next five years. To make sure that the digitally biased audience knew that I was serious about my prediction, I said if I was wrong, I would pay for the conference cocktail party after any year in which I wasn’t right.

 

The crowd, a bit taken back by my bet, didn’t agree with me (nor did my fellow panelists). I’m quite confident I won’t be paying for those drinks at any time between now and 2019. Here’s why:

TV advertising and audiences are not shrinking. The average American watches more than 34 hours of TV programming every week. That number has gone up, not down, over the past 20 years, and has only begun to show signs of plateauing over the past two years. Time on the Internet and tablets and mobile devices has gone up, but TV usage hasn’t gone down. That’s why total TV ad spend has been growing between 4% to 8% per year -- $3.5 billion to 4 billion -- over the past five years, and is expected to grow similarly over the next five years. According to eMarketer, U.S. digital video ad spend has been growing fast, but only by $1 billion to $2 billion per year.

 

TV advertising works. Sight, sound and motion on 60-inch, high-definition screens deliver results every day for brands like McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Walmart, State Farm, Kellogg’s and Ford. Audiences are massive. They are passive audiences. And they show up in unmatched numbers predictably every day. Those ads deliver results at the cash register. That’s why the TV industry spends $35 billion per year in new investments in content.

 

Demand outstrips supply. While lots of marketers and agencies have talked for years about rotating their ad spend out of TV, total TV ad spend has increased every year but one for the past 10 years. If some are pulling out, more are jumping in. Marketers in categories with a "moveable purchase," like quick service restaurants, retail, automotive, insurance, movies, know that if they lose share of voice on TV to their competitors, they will lose sales and market share (and stock price and perhaps their jobs). The only other place that happens in the ad business today is search. That’s why the upfront works. Until that changes, TV ad spend will keep going up.

 

TV ads are getting better. TV has always been fully electronic, but only now is it fully digital. Today, TVs have computers for set-top boxes, many TVs are connected to the Internet, set-top-box viewing data is widely available for measurement and targeting, and lots of media folks who were trained in the online world are looking at TV and starting to apply Web-like ad approaches to TV.

 

TV and Internet Protocol video aren’t likely to converge until around 2020. As much as ma

ny of us believe  we will eventually have a converged video world, where all video programming on TV is delivered over IP networks and is available on-demand with dynamic, addressable ads, that reality is still a long way away. One-third of America (100+ million people) does not have broadband in the home. Netflix on Saturday and Sunday nights in Manhattan buffers and slows down, and wouldn’t even rate as a top ten TV network. We still have a ways to go.

 

Digital video still coming of age. Video over the Internet and on mobile devices has an extraordinary future, but it still has a lot of growing to do. As compared to TV, it is still subscale. There is a limited amount of premium content ad avails, and TV companies control much of that. It has emerging fraud issues, not unlike its banner ad brethren. It’s just getting a more mature measurement framework in place with products like Nielsen’s OCR and ComScore’s vCE.

 

Lots will change in this market over the next 10 years, but probably not as much over the next five as many would like to believe. The law of large numbers and slow and steady growth is on my side on this bet. I feel very good about winning over the next five years. After that, I’m likely to take the other side of the bet. What do you think?

 

Q4 Broadcast Ads Up 4.7%, Early 2014 Scatter TV Down

MediaDailyNews

 

by Wayne Friedman, Jan 14, 2014, 10:52 AM

 

Declines in scatter market dollar volume will continue in the first quarter of 2014 -- partly as a result of NBC's Winter Olympics siphoning dollars away from other TV networks, as well as heavy upfront sales made last year.

Michael Nathanson, media analyst of MoffettNathanson Research, writes that “for the first time in recent memory, some media executives, blaming softer scatter and weak ratings trends, publicly talked down fourth-quarter advertising expectations.” He said that first-quarter advertising and ratings could also sink to some extent.

Overall, fourth-quarter national TV advertising is now projected to be up 4.7% versus an earlier estimate of 5.9%. Broadcast networks -- excluding NBC -- are expected to be up 2.8%, says Nathanson. Fox will be 5% higher; CBS, 4.0%; and ABC down 1%.

Looking at cable networks, he expects national advertising on these networks to rise 4.7%. The leaders here: AMC, up 32%; Disney, 7% higher; Scripps Networks Interactive, improving 6.5%; 21 Century Fox, up 6%; Discovery, adding 5%; NBCUniversal, gaining 4%; and Time Warner, adding 3%.

“While we expect slowing scatter to limit future earnings surprises and cause the gap between advertising and target demo ratings to shrink, we believe that fourth quarter is somewhat protected because of layering of upfront increases on a seasonally low scatter inventory,” Nathanson says.

Adding to this is the deferral of makegood inventory into latter quarters of the broadcast season.

Looking at fourth-quarter C3 ratings (commercial ratings plus three days of time-shifting, for adult 18-49 viewers in primetime) broadcast networks were up slightly year-to-year 0.8%, with organic cable network growth down 1.5%, says Nathanson.  

Fox’s World Series programming, as well as higher NFL programming overall, were the main reasons for broadcast’s gains. Fox grew 10.7% during the period among 18-49 viewers in C3 ratings, while NBC gained 1.1%; ABC was down 2.1%; and CBS dropped 4.3%.