Local Direct is the Best Way to Preserve Growth in New Business Revenue Attainment for 2018+Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

• by Wayne Friedman , 4 hours ago

In a recent report, Moody’s says: “Over the next 12-18 months, we expect declines to be in the mid-single-digit percent for the entire sector, in the aggregate.” This comes after a 2.2% decline for 2017.

A saving grace for TV station groups, Moody's says, has been retransmission fees, which climbed by about 23% in 2017 “for a sample of our rated companies, nearly 10% higher than our projection a year ago.”

Moody’s expects “at least mid-teens percent” gains in the next 12 to 18 months for retransmission fees. Still, all this will result in weak cash flow -- earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization -- for TV/radio station owners of the next year to year-and-a-half -- with average growth of 1.8%.

Overall, the researcher says the industry is “stable but [the] weak sector depends more on pricey subscription fees to offset ad decline.”

Of the TV-based media companies that own TV and/or radio stations, Moody’s says the average revenue mix forecasts a company earning 55% of its revenue from advertising; 30% from retransmission fees; 5%, radio; and 10%, digital media.