Thursday, February 20, 2025

2025's Future of Local TV

 

Tom Buono, founder and CEO of BIA Advisory Services, shared insights into the future of local advertising at the annual TVB Forward Conference in New York. In a presentation to broadcast executives, Buono revealed shifts in ad spending patterns, key business categories investing in local television, and the prospects of mergers and acquisitions in the broadcast industry in 2025. Television And Digital Convergence.

BIA’s local television advertising forecast — which rolls up linear TV, TV digital and connected TV/Over-the-Top — projects local revenue will reach $21 billion in 2025, a 3.6% increase from 2024 when examining the industry without political advertising. CTV/OTT is the largest growing segment of local television, bolstering the industry’s digital growth.

“Our review of this year’s spending and our latest forecast for 2025 indicates a pivotal moment in local advertising, with digital media continuing its robust growth trajectory,” Buono said. “While traditional television viewing remains resilient, the surge in streaming services is reshaping the media landscape.”

BIA’s analysis reveals an evolving television landscape where traditional and digital platforms are increasingly interconnected:

  • Traditional TV over-the-air (OTA) revenue continues to demonstrate stability at approximately $16.5 billion (with political) in 2024, though its overall share of wallet has declined from 11.4 percent to 9.6 percent from 2019 to 2025.
  • TV Digital (i.e., owned and operated mobile apps & websites) grew steadily from 2019 to 2024. CTV experienced rapid growth during this same timeframe.
  • Legal Services is the largest category spender for local TV at $1.85 billion across TV OTA, TV Digital and CTV/OTT.

“The local broadcast television ecosystem is evolving beyond traditional metrics,” Buono said. “We’re seeing local broadcasters successfully adapt their strategies to encompass both conventional and digital delivery methods, creating more diverse revenue streams.”

One of the key categories for local television, automotive, is projected to maintain a dominant advertising position in local television with Tier 1 – Automotive Manufacturers (OEMs) spending $1.1 billion, Tier 2 – Local Automotive Dealers Associations spending $863.7 million, and Tier 3 – New Car Dealers spending $750.1 million.

Another key consideration for local television in 2025 will be the new administration. Buono anticipates the Trump Administration and its nominee for FCC chair, Brendan Carr, will foster a more business-friendly environment for mergers and acquisitions. This shift could empower broadcasters to explore strategic ventures and partnerships, bolstering their position against streaming and tech giants. Additionally, if the new administration addresses Big Tech’s market dominance, broadcasters may gain a more competitive playing field.

Tough Visit Over the Holidays....Why LeNoble's Media Sales Insights Went Away

 Hi All: I'm so apologetic for not sending you your weekly dose of media happening as I've done since 2008 with several notices of pauses in LeNoble's Media Insights during vacations and or lack of viable and interesting information.

Most recently, I had an injury falling on my back trying to play Pickleball during Thanksgiving with the wrong shoes that lasted through January while visiting our family in Nevada that required medical attention.

Now, I'm back to what I enjoy doing to share with you all the latest goings-on in media marketing to date. 

I do this because I've enjoyed an amazing media career since 1967 when I was just a young pup in the business and loved the days when I'd go out in the field and help local businesses use local media to gain a wonderful connection to their most desired customer base every day! 

After 17 years selling early media marketing on radio in the streets and having traveled the ranks of sales management from east to west and had a blast and making a great living for my family, I wanted to do something for others without asking anyone for money! 

So....,LeNoble's Media Sales Insights was born in 2008 and I love doing it for you! 

And, we know that retransmission fees don't make up the losses of revenue that owners and managers are seeing unfold. Nor does national or regional revenue placed on linear TV! 

The best net profit for stations revenue growth is and has always been, local-direct! So... what I do is help you all know what's happing in our daily media marketing world of TV. It's a service I enjoy providing with LeNoble's Media Sales Insights. 

All I request is letting me know what you would like to see more of and any comments you may have for us. So! All is good now and let's have some more fun in 2025.

Let me know what you think! 

Peace!


 

Back in Action with LeNoble's Media Sales Insights

 Greeting this chilly day in February. Spring is in the air....and a warm air shift is scheduled for Sunday thru end of next week.

After pulling our weekly update during the election period knowing there was so much going on, I just spoke to 4 GSMs who prompted me to get back to the action of weekly updates now that February is coming to an end, they always enjoyed the weekly updates!  

So..here we go again! What I'd like is a simple note from you sharing what else you'd like to see.

Hope each of you had a wonderful holiday season with your families and look forward to a healthy, happy and prosperous 2025!   


Monday, December 9, 2024

The Rise and Fall of YA TV: How Creators & Development Execs Are Appealing to Gen Z In The Age of TikTok

 An Extra Special Report on the youth Generation: Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Just found this to be an excellent article to share with your local-direct businesses or as an intro to what's coming up for sales meeting.

The Rise and Fall of YA TV: How Creators & Development Execs Are Appealing to Gen Z In The Age of TikTok

By Katie CampioneLynette Rice

December 6, 2024 7:00am

Is anyone even watching young adult TV anymore? 

As the entire television ecosystem has been upended in recent years, dedicated spaces for YA content have all but disappeared. The CW swiftly cancelled nearly all of its scripted series, many of which targeted this audience, over the last few years. Freeform has done the same. 

The streamers have largely taken up the mantle on speaking to young audiences, but still questions remain. With the rise of short-form content thanks to TikTok and YouTube, does this new generation of teens and young adults even care for longform, scripted content? How can streamers compete for Gen Z’s attention in such a fractured landscape?



 

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“I don’t think the demand is dwindling,” Greg Berlanti, who has produced some of the most culturally relevant YA content of the past two decades from Dawson’s Creek to Riverdale, told Deadline. “There will always be a place for great YA. In fact, I think there is a huge opportunity for one of the current platforms to become the place people expect to find the best of it.”

Deadline spoke with several creators and development executives who agreed with Berlanti that, while the landscape looks different than it used to, there’s still a bustling marketplace for young adult television.

The Rise and Fall of YA TV

During its heyday, the CW (and its predecessors, the WB and UPN) was the unequivocal home for young adult television that included faves like One Tree Hill, Gossip Girl, The Vampire Diaries, and more. The network spent more than 20 years servicing the audience before a regime change in 2022 led to a shift away from that programming toward unscripted and sports content that appeals to a larger (see: older) viewership.

With the end of Superman & Lois earlier this month, just one YA scripted series remains on the network: All American. But what may have seemed like the death knell on young folks TV was really just another round in a never-ending pattern, argues Julie Plec.

“The story remains the same. For a cycle, everyone swears they’re not buying YA. Everyone. Then one show hits big, and suddenly folks are hungry for it,” The Vampire Diaries creator told Deadline, citing 13 Reasons WhyThe Summer I Turned Pretty, and Outer Banks as a few recent examples of YA hits that rejuvenated the marketplace. 

It’s a cycle that is all too familiar to creators like Plec, who have been championing the genre for decades.

“Then a couple don’t work, and the market seals up tight again,” she continued. “Never give up on your great YA idea, but definitely expect that you’ll have to survive the cyclical aspect of the buyers’ appetite for the genre.”

It’s not just the CW, either. The landscape for young adult TV became much more fragmented over the years, as is also evidenced by the rise and fall of Freeform (formerly known as ABC Family), which appealed to that audience with hits like Pretty Little LiarsThe Fosters, and Good Trouble.

“I think what [those shows] really taught me was how broad young adult content is [and] the breadth of the age range of viewers that just always connects to these deep relationship stories,” Disney exec Simran Sethi, who previously led scripted development at Freeform from 2015-2017 and had a hand in some of the network’s YA hits, including grown-ish and The Bold Type.

Now, leading scripted development and content strategy for Hulu Originals, ABC Entertainment and Freeform, Sethi says that she hasn’t given up servicing that audience, even if that type of content has lost its dedicated homes. Sethi points to Hulu’s Tell Me Lies as an example of a recent streaming series that has succeeded in attracting a young audience.

That’s thanks in part to TikTok, where the first season went viral, helping it reach those younger viewers. This has been the case with many recent young adult series, like The Summer I Turned Pretty and Heartstopper, whose resonance on social platforms has translated to impressive streaming audiences.

TV in the Age of TikTok

Gen Z, those born between the 1990s and early 2010s, is the first generation to be raised in an age dominated by rapidly advancing technology. Most of them have never known a world without social media or smart phones. 

With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that YouTube remains, by far, the most-watched streaming platform in the world. According to Nielsen’s November report, YouTube comprised 10.6% of all streaming viewing, with Netflix coming in second place at 7.5%. There is no other competitor that even comes close. 

Also take into consideration the dominance of TikTok, which has more than 1B monthly active users, over half of whom are under 30. 

This begs the questions: Have social media platforms eclipsed traditional TV? Do young people even want to watch longform, scripted content anymore? 

Fortunately, Gen Z has not entirely abandoned traditional TV, even if they are more fickle and harder to attract than teens previously were. This is evidenced in part by the consistency with which young people watch library titles on streaming, like Grey’s Anatomy and Gilmore Girls, both of which are constantly on Nielsen’s weekly streaming rankings. At the start of November, Gossip Girl also soared back onto the Nielsen charts after returning to Netflix, with 10% of viewers aged 12-17 and 37% in the 18-34 range.

“This audience is willing to watch dozens and dozens of episodes of library titles. I don’t think they’ve abandoned the form,” Amazon Studios Head of TV Vernon Sanders said. “I do think as media companies, we have to be really thoughtful and fresh in our approach to communicate with them.”

Sanders, like Sethi, stresses the importance of viewing social media platforms as a tool to help build an audience, rather than a direct competitor.

In some cases, brands have opted to put entire episodes on YouTube and TikTok in hopes of catching young peoples’ attention and drawing them to a specific service, as Disney recently did with the premiere of Wizards Beyond Waverly Place.

In the case of Prime Video, Sanders points to Jury Duty as a series that drew a massive audience and, because of traction on Instagram and TikTok, “the young people led the way there.”

Not only can social media serve as an avenue to introduce young audiences to content, it can also be a way to build a lasting community that returns season-over-season. Prime Video’s greatest example of this phenomenon is undoubtedly The Summer I Turned Pretty, which thanks to author Jenny Han already had a dedicated social presence that only grew with the release of the show.

Sethi notes that, while social media can help gain the attention of Gen Z, it only works if development executives can find “stories that speak to [young people] directly.”

“It’s about how we capture them, be patient with them, finding these shows and really, really just constantly presenting them with stories that are avatars for their own lives and what they’re going through,” she said. 

That sounds simple enough, but as viewing habits for younger generations have changed, so, too, have their tastes.

Speaking to a New Generation of Teens

In October, a UCLA study found that teens these days prefer more depictions of friendship and platonic relationships in film and TV, rather than focusing so heavily on sex or romance. Of the 1,500 young people surveyed across the U.S., more than 63% are more interested in this  “nomance”-related content.

Overwhelmingly, every purveyor of YA content who Deadline spoke to agreed that, while they certainly don’t ignore these studies, their goal isn’t to cater to these ever-evolving preferences, opting instead to aim for content that can transcend the current generation of teens. In their eyes, young adult stories are for everyone.

“It’s hard to balance that piece of demographic information against the hungry YA audience that is not Gen Z,” Plec explained. “That’s where a lot of buyers/developers get confused, I think. Because YA content is not exclusively adored by YA-aged audiences. If you only make a show for one age of the audience, you’re closing doors to an extraordinary amount of fans of the genre.”

This is the approach that Justin Noble and Mindy Kaling have taken with their Max original, The Sex Lives of College GirlsSeason 3 debuted in November, thrusting the main characters into their sophomore year of college and all the messiness that comes with it. 

“I think for some reason we’ve conditioned ourselves into thinking that it’s coming-of-age content, and I think that the implication of that is that, by the end…you figure out exactly who you are, and you’re done. I think that’s so not true,” he said.

While the characters he’s writing are just coming into adulthood, Noble doesn’t care much whether the viewer came of age last month, last year, or last decade.  

“I’ve learned new things about myself this week, probably this morning. I think it’s interesting to examine that content that we aspire to see where people are learning more about themselves …and that doesn’t need to stop because you’re out of high school, or you’re out of college, or you’re out of your young adult years, or whatever,” he added. “We can always be figuring out who the happiest, best versions of ourselves are. It’s inspirational TV at the end of the day to see characters figuring it out.”

In fact, trying to appeal solely to one specific generation more often than not hurts rather than helps.

Last month, Max dropped a collegiate romcom called Sweethearts, about a pair of freshmen (played by Kiernan Shipka and Nico Hiraga) who vow to drop-kick their high school sweeties over Thanksgiving break. Director Jordan Weiss, who co-wrote the made-for-Max movie with Dan Brier, acknowledges that it’s harder these days to reach a younger audience, but she’s not ready to abandon the genre just yet.

She won’t, however, be bending over backwards to appeal to the TikTok generation by incorporating their unique lexicon into the dialogue.

“Trends change so frequently that it was a big priority of ours to give the movie a timeless sort of feel, and we were pretty intentional to avoid the use of a lot of modern social media slang,” she said. “We really didn’t want to put any of that on screen because you never know what is going to date a project, and I love being able to rewatch Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. One of our goals with this is to make it something that teens will find relatable, but that also is going to have a bit of that evergreen quality. We hope.”

That’s definitely what creators Phoebe Fisher and Sara Goodman tried to keep in mind when crafting the debut season of Cruel Intentions, Prime Video’s reboot of the classic 1999 movie that starred Reese Witherspoon and Sarah Michelle Gellar. “Sometimes when you try and incorporate that language that’s so flash in the pan or popular on the internet, it quickly dates you,” acknowledges Goodman of the series, which also kicked off in November. 

The series that stars Sara Catherine Hook,  Zac Burgess and Savannah Lee Smith faces a unique challenge — faithful fans of the movie may not want to see anyone mess with their cult fave while Gen Z’ers probably don’t even recognize the Roger Kumble movie, much less have any appreciation how it starred the likes of Ryan Phillippe, Selma Blair, Joshua Jackson and the great Christine Baranski.

Fisher and Goodman see some benefit in that, even though they do try to appease the OG fans by dropping lots of Easter eggs into the premiere that harken back to the movie. 

“Teenagers have to come to it on their own, based on its own merits,” admits Goodman. “I think so far they’re very open, at least to the trailer and to what we’ve been seeing … We felt like this is what’s missing from television. There’s an escapist quality to living in a world of great privilege where people behave badly. It’s funny and sexy and boundary pushing and irreverent. We’re not trying to send a message or be precious about anything. We’re just having a good time in this world that we don’t usually get to go into. And I think that’s still relevant in terms of entertainment and in terms of what people want to see.”

Passing the Torch

The best way to keep YA content alive is by continuously looking for fresh voices to bring new perspectives to the genre, the development execs agree, as is exemplified by the Cruel Intentions reboot.

At Prime Video, Sanders says the team often looks to its own young employees to chart help the path forward in this space.

“We’re constantly reminding ourselves not to make assumptions, and one of the things we spend a lot of time doing is actually talking to the young people inside our company and really giving them a big voice on, how are they responding to things out in the world, and how are they responding to our slate of choices?” he said. “Oftentimes, it’s their voices behind something that makes us go, ‘Okay, let’s give a shot to this.’”

The young adult genre also lives and dies by the studios’ effort to find and uplift new writers and actors who can speak directly to the next generation, Berlanti adds. Whether it’s a reboot, an adaptation, or an entirely original idea, there needs to be new voices to tell them.

“In my almost 30 years of doing YA material, the best and the ones that have stood out have all come from a younger voice with something to say about the world and the way they perceive it,” he said. “We are always looking for and supporting those voices — whether in books or tv or film writers, that’s where the next great batch will come from.”

 


AM/FM Still Outpaces Streaming for Top US Music Platform

 


AM/FM Still Outpaces Streaming for Top US Music Platform

3

Despite the growing buzz around podcasts and spoken-word content, music remains the dominant draw for US listeners – accounting for 74% of their average daily audio time – and even while it sits on a razor-thin margin, radio is the top platform to listen to music.

The findings, captured by Edison Research, show AM/FM and its streams lead as the top source for music among listeners aged 13 and older, capturing 32% of daily listening time. Streaming platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon, Pandora, and YouTube Music follow closely, accounting for 28%.

YouTube for music and music videos contributes another 18%.

Additional breakdowns show 9% of music listening is dedicated to SiriusXM, while another 9% is spent on owned music, such as vinyl, CDs, or downloaded files. Music channels on TV, such as Music Choice or Stingray, account for the remaining 3%.

Yet, when Edison clipped out the oldest users on the chart, it captured the shifting digital paradigm. For younger audiences aged 13-64, streaming edges out AM/FM by a slim margin. Streaming platforms claim 31% of daily music listening time in this demographic, while radio follows at 30%.

Edison Research’s full Q3 Share of Ear study highlights radio’s full reign as the leading audio platform in the US, capturing 37% of total audio time among adults 18+. Music videos on YouTube and podcasts followed with 13% and 10%, respectively. Radio dominates ad-supported audio with a 69% share, outperforming competitors across all major demographics, including Millennials and Gen Z.

In the car, AM/FM secures 86% of ad-supported listening, including 82% among 18-34s. Thirteen percent of radio listening occurs via streaming, with smart speakers contributing significantly, whereas radio leads ad-supported platforms with 50%. Podcasts, while growing among younger audiences, account for 33% of ad-supported audio time among 18-34s and 48% among Hispanic listeners in the same age group.

GroupM: Ad Industry to Surpass $1 Trillion in Revenue for the First Time

 

GroupM: Ad Industry to Surpass $1 Trillion in Revenue for the First Time

The WPP media investment firm released its 2024 Global End-of-Year Forecast today

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ADWEEK House is headed to Las Vegas on January 8! Our house is your house to unwind, recharge and network during the industry’s largest consumer tech moment. RSVP.

GroupM projects that the global advertising industry will surpass $1 trillion in total revenue for the first time this year.

In its This Year Next Year 2024 End of Year Global Forecast, released today (Dec. 9), the WPP media investment firm estimates that global advertising revenue will increase 9.5% this year, up from the 7.8% growth estimate it made in its mid-year forecast in June.

GroupM predicts that advertising revenue in the U.S. specifically will grow 9% in 2024, to $379 billion, and 7% in 2025. 

The firm projects global ad revenues will reach $1.1 trillion in 2025, with pure-play digital advertising, including extensions like streaming TV, digital out-of-home (DOOH), and digital newspaper and magazine revenue, accounting for 81.7% of the total.

TV and out-of-home (OOH) will also grow next year, while audio and print revenues will remain flat and decline, respectively.

GroupM excluded the impact of U.S. political advertising in its forecast due to its skewing effect on the data. In 2024, U.S. political ad revenues reached $15.1 billion.

Digital channels drive global ad revenue

Digital channels, excluding extensions of traditional media like CTV and DOOH, were the strongest drivers of ad revenue growth in 2024. Pure-play digital advertising, including search, retail media, and social media, is expected to grow 12.4% globally this year and 10% next year, per GroupM.

Kate Scott-Dawkins, global president, business intelligence at GroupM and author of the forecast, said as digital investment grows, it will be challenging for advertisers to maintain a consistent brand perception across fragmented channels, so it’s crucial to build recognition so consumers search for a product by the brand’s name, versus by generic product names.

As platforms like Google, Meta, ByteDance, and Amazon cross over into channels like search and e-commerce, competition is driving overall growth of the market. Along with Alibaba, these five are expected to earn more than half of all ad revenue in 2024.

Looking ahead, streaming TV ad revenue is slated to grow 19.3% in 2025, per the forecast. In the U.S., streaming TV ad revenue is expected to rise to account for 35.8% of the total share of TV ad revenues.

TV Ads, Tariffs, Payment Plans: Disengagement or Pricey Buys?

 American made products will be key to saving money for consumers beginning in 2025! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Commentary

TV Ads, Tariffs, Payment Plans: Disengagement or Pricey Buys?

Future TV advertisers -- under the Trump administration -- will need to have some new advertising copy when it comes to the all-important holiday shopping season.

Worried about 100% tariffs leading to high prices on products coming from China and elsewhere? Some new ad copy might be a good idea, to think ahead: “New holiday shopping deadline -- for the next four years -- coming January 20th!”

Hey, don’t worry. Just keep your 2017 car running just another 40,000 miles or so. That’s right -- no new Tesla for you!

No doubt this could warm the heart of Tesla founder Elon Musk and his goal for U.S. consumer, business, and governmental efficiency.

Well, perhaps it's not all bad. President-elect Donald Trump might just pick and choose those industries in certain countries that he favors (or is against) or where he or his friends have no vested interest. Or not.

A tariff is a tax that will be borne by consumers on imported goods, according to a wide range of economists. So the price for a mobile phone will almost assuredly rise, for example.

Think that will make you now buy a totally U.S.-manufactured mobile phone -- and not one from Apple, Samsung or Google, where devices are entirely or through parts produced overseas? Maybe -- if you can find one. And if so, tell us about that purchase -- in 2029.

Executives at retailer Best Buy now say tariffs could force the retailer to raise prices -- especially consumer electronics, which are virtually all imported. Best Buy executives say around 60% of all the products it sells comes from China.

How does that affect Best Buy? Possibly less TV marketing -- or at least more strategic marketing that goes to other media.

Other categories -- automotive, consumer mobile/broadband communications companies, and quick-service restaurants -- might also experience some issues.

If consumers drastically cut out some luxury products and services they do not need immediately due to high prices, what then?

Will brands keep advertising -- at least from an awareness level?

During recessionary times, media executives believe this type of marketing at a minimum needs to continue.

Perhaps engagement-oriented TV campaigns will tout more monthly payments -- with no interest attached.

Truly, under this administration, some new TV advertising copy might read: “Buy now. Pay later.”