Tariff Reversal Could Trigger More Ad Dollars

• by Laurie Sullivan , 5 hours ago

Consumer technology and automotive sectors have been cited as having "pulled back" the most on digital ads, but today's U.S. Supreme Court ruling could remove the immediate cost pressures that prompted companies to make those cuts.

The ruling found some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs illegal, but stopped short of saying whether or how the federal government must refund businesses for duties they have paid. The law is intended for use in national emergencies. The shift could have major implications for the global economy. 

The justices ruled 6-3, and conservative Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion for the ruling.

The ruling upheld a lower court's decision that Trump's use of this 1977 law exceeded his authority. The law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), did not grant Trump the power he claimed to impose tariffs.

Roberts cited a prior Supreme Court ruling, writing that "the president must 'point to clear congressional authorization' to justify his extraordinary assertion of the power to impose tariffs," according to Reuters. 

The ruling removes one primary roadblock to infuse investments in digital advertising.

Time reports that companies that had to pay tariffs might have an opportunity to seek a refund from the Treasury Department, but Justice Brett Kavanaugh, writing in dissent, noted that “refunds of billions of dollars would have significant consequences” for the U.S. economy, and warned that the “process is likely to be a ‘mess.'"

The Court also said nothing about whether -- and if so, how -- the government would return the billions of dollars that it collected from importers, he told Time.

U.S. tariffs implemented in 2025 by the Trump administration have disrupted every industry, but none as much as retail and automotive.

"While the decision provides some near-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainty facing retailers and brands," said Emarketer Analyst Zak Stambor. "We expect the ruling to create a modest tailwind for retail sales beginning this year, though that benefit will gradually fade by 2028."

Emarketer revised its forecast on Friday for retail, estimating sales will grow 3.5% to $7.78 trillion this year, roughly $13 billion higher than its previous outlook.

A report published in September 2025 from Emarketer expected retail and automotive to take the biggest hit and cut the most ad spending.

Emarketer across all sectors expected U.S. digital ad spend to reach $338.27 billion this year, representing a 9.5% year-over-year growth. An earlier forecast predicted 11.5% growth in 2025.

The Interactive Advertising Bureau had already forecast that U.S. marketers overall would spend 9.5% more in 2026 compared with 2025 on digital advertising.

The growth, forecast through polling domestic buy-side ad buyers at agencies and brands, is partly due to “major cyclical events” including the midterm elections, Winter Olympics, and the FIFA World Cup. Excluding those events, the IAB said, growth still wavers between 7.1% and 7.8%.

The News/Media Alliance, applauding Friday’s U.S. Supreme Court Ruling, shared its views on how tariffs hurt publishing.

“We support strong trade enforcement to protect U.S. industries and U.S. jobs," Danielle Coffey, president and CEO of the News/Media Alliance, wrote in prepared remarks. She called tariffs "counterproductive and unnecessary."

Further implementation of tariffs would result in the loss of thousands of jobs in the already-stressed U.S. publishing, printing, and paper industries, leading to less quality journalism available to the American people, Coffey wrote.

The U.S. Constitution grants Congress -- not the president -- the authority to issue taxes and tariffs, although Trump turned to a statutory authority by invoking IEEPA to impose the tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner without the approval of Congress, according to Reuters.

Trump did impose additional tariffs under other laws that are not at issue in this case, Reuters explained. Based on government data from October to mid-December, those represent about one-third of the revenue from tariffs.

 Just to best understand a rather new term, "proprietary  media"....Proprietary media (or inventory media) is ad space a media agency buys upfront with its own funds, acting as a principal rather than an agent. The agency owns this inventory, often reselling it to clients at a markup without disclosing the original price or allowing audits. Key synonyms include inventory media, principal-based buying, or principal media. Another reason, why I always have liked calling on local-direct clients and saving them lots of unnecessary revenue losses: Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Commentary

Are You an Advertiser -- Or Just Your Agency's Favorite Customer?

• by Maarten Albarda , Featured Contributor, 4 hours ago

If there’s one thing that never changes, it’s the industry's ability to dress up a potential conflict of interest as a "strategic solution” or a “competitive advantage.”  Proprietary or principal media is the current poster child for this.

Lately, many agency media pitches include these "exclusive" bundles. The story is compelling: better pricing and increased agility. And: “It’s the media you would buy anyway, but now we have bought it for our clients and you can get it at our exclusive price.”  But let’s be honest: When your advisor is also the seller, the line between "best for the client" and "best for the agency’s margin" becomes a mess.

The U.S. market is leaning into principal media hard. Recent forecasts for 2026 suggest proprietary media will continue to be a massive revenue engine for agencies as they look to offset declining traditional margins. We’re seeing a "K-shaped" media economy where the top holding companies are leveraging their massive scale (like the recently merged Omnicom and IPG) to obtain and market proprietary bundles in fragmented spaces like Retail Media and CTV.

The ANA has been sounding the alarm on transparency for years, and while we’ve seen some wins like advertisers significantly tightening the transparency and media audit language in their contracts, there is still a massive $26.8 billion lost annually to inefficiencies.

That’s because many advertisers have not addressed the various elephants in the room. Proprietary media, mixed in with standard media buys and shielded by limited audit rights, makes it nearly impossible to tell if what you pay is what you should be paying -- or even should be buying in the first place.

ISBA in the UK is what the ANA is in the U.S. It has just released a major governance paper on the topic of proprietary media, because U.K. advertisers are seeking ways to push back.

Don’t get me wrong, and I’ve said this before: Proprietary media isn’t inherently "evil." It can offer genuine value, especially in accessing premium inventory that’s hard to get. But it’s a tool that requires a very sharp set of guardrails. Without them, you’re not an advertiser; you’re just a customer of your agency’s inventory business.

So if you’re going to play in this sandbox, don’t do it on the agency's terms, but create your own set of rules, enforced by third-party audit rights. For instance, create an internal strategy that defines exactly when proprietary media is allowed, and what kind of approvals are needed to include them in the mix.

Demand campaign-level transparency. If it’s proprietary, it needs to be its own line item, have its own reporting, and its own performance metrics. Do not accept "bundled" reporting that hides the markup. Put a hard cap on what percentage of your total budget can go into proprietary solutions and only deviate from that cap with approval in advance.

And most importantly: Update your contracts to ensure you have the right to see the data. If the agency says, "you can't audit this because it's proprietary," that’s a red flag you need to discuss.

Proprietary media is a reality in 2026. You can use it to find value, or it can be used to extract value from you. The difference is entirely in your governance.

 A little education re: AI...learning what to believe and what may be less believable!  Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Commentary

The Hidden Risk In AI-Driven Marketing: Not Knowing the Data Behind the Model

• by Danyelle Horrillo , 4 hours ago

AI is involved in every step of the media process, generating output faster than a human ever could. The risk isn’t AI itself; it’s how much we rely on it without understanding the data behind the models shaping decisions.

What “AI Data” Actually Means

When marketers hear “AI uses data,” it’s easy to assume it means campaign results alone. It’s far more layered than that.

Most AI-driven tools rely on some combination of:

• Training data: Historical datasets used to teach the model, often a mix of public, platform-level, or proprietary datasets.
• Input data: Briefs, targeting parameters, budgets, performance metrics, and prompts.
• Reference or enrichment data: Benchmarks, modeled audiences, third-party datasets, or performance trends.
• Feedback loops: Past results that influence future recommendations, sometimes reinforcing old patterns.

Every tool has its own nuances, and vendors vary in transparency levels.

Why This Matters

Knowing AI data sources isn’t a technical exercise for the ops team; it has implications for how media strategies are built and optimized. AI models learn from patterns, and those patterns shape strategy. If the underlying data over-represents certain platforms, formats, or attribution models, recommendations will naturally skew in that direction, even if it’s not the best strategic move. The output may look like “optimization,” even when it no longer aligns with business goals.

Optimization Without Context Is Still Optimization

AI is good at optimizing toward whatever it’s instructed to value. But KPIs are incomplete without human interception:

• CTR doesn’t equal brand impact.
• Cheap conversions don’t equal quality.
• Short-term efficiency doesn’t equal long-term growth.

Without context, incrementality, offline performance, seasonality, or real-world constraints, AI can confidently optimize in the wrong direction, without understanding why those decisions matter.

Bad Data Gets Scaled         

AI can scale bad data. Inconsistent naming conventions, incomplete UTMs, blended attribution models, and platform-analytics gaps will still produce an output: “garbage in, garbage out faster and at scale.”

The Transparency Gap with AI-Powered Tools

Many AI-powered tools operate as black boxes - recommendations without rationale, or insights without clarity into inputs. There isn’t always a clear breakdown of training data sources, data influencing results, or how frequently models are updated. Yet marketers are expected to act on and defend those outputs.

What We as Marketers Should Be Asking About AI

Knowing the data sources is part of the job. Ask vendors:

• What data sources train this model?
• How are attribution methodologies handled?
• Can recommendations be audited?
• How frequently is the model updated?
• Is there any data intentionally excluded?
• Can we customize this data used?

Vague answers are a red flag.

AI Is An Assistant, Not A Strategist

AI is a powerful tool, but it’s still a tool. AI processes data, marketers provide meaning. Human judgement sets the objectives, applies business context, and pressure tests recommendations.

Understanding where AI gets its data is a strategic responsibility. Marketers who get ahead won’t be the ones who use AI blindly. They’ll be the ones who question it, validate it, and use it intentionally, knowing the data behind the model.

 

Commentary

Super Bowl Advertising In the Age of Fear, Nostalgia, And Very Expensive Feelings

• by Matthew Cook , February 13, 2026

This year’s Super Bowl made one thing painfully clear. Advertising is having an identity crisis, and it is playing out in real time on the most expensive stage in the world.

On one end of the spectrum, brands are terrified. They are afraid of saying the wrong thing, offending the wrong group, or being dragged into a conversation they did not intend to have. On the other end, a few brave brands are remembering that advertising is supposed to mean something, not just avoid scrutiny.

Rocket’s decision to hire Lady Gaga to sing the "Mister Rogers" theme over a story about community and belonging felt almost radical. “Be a good neighbor” should not be a brave message. In 2026, it is. In a country that can barely agree on what those words mean anymore, Rocket chose to say them anyway. Brands that are not afraid to have a perspective will always gain more fans than they lose. Playing it safe is the fastest way to be forgotten.

At the same time, this Super Bowl was drenched in nostalgia. Millennials are officially running the world, and they are spending eight million dollars at a time to recreate their childhoods. Green Day. Backstreet Boys. Mister Rogers. Dunkin’ ads that feel like they wandered in from a ‘90s sitcom. Somewhere, a CMO is pitching Topanga with a Skip-It for next year.

Nostalgia works because it is comfortable. It reminds us of a time before everything felt so complicated. But when every brand is pulling from the same cultural scrapbook, the work starts to blur together. Familiarity alone is not a strategy. It is a shortcut, and shortcuts rarely lead to anything memorable.

Nowhere was this tension more obvious than in the AI category. Subscription-only platforms spent Super Bowl money to mock the idea of ads, even though most consumers still do not understand what separates one AI platform from another. Perception mattered more than nuance. When OpenAI floated the possibility of ads, Anthropic seized the opportunity to position itself in contrast. Meta continues to run AI ads for its smart glasses. This is a land grab. While understanding is still low, these companies are racing to claim attention and trust before consumers fully know what they are choosing.

Then there were the brands that actually understood how culture moves now. Fanatics did not treat the Super Bowl as the moment. They treated it as the finale. Instead of another yelling ex-athlete shouting odds, they let Kendall Jenner roast her exes for 90 seconds. The spot was already driving massive app downloads before the game even aired because it launched on social first and went viral organically. The Super Bowl buy was the exclamation point, not the starting line.

That is the lesson most brands still refuse to learn: The Super Bowl is not a strategy, it is a stage.

In a country that feels like a dumpster fire most days, advertising still has the power to make people feel something. Sometimes that something is laughter, like Ben Stiller crashing through a drum set. Sometimes it is something stranger and deeper, like a horse, an eagle, and "Free Bird" reminding us we are still in here somewhere, or a collection of backsides in Levi's doing effortlessly cool in a way only they can do it. That is not escapism. That is connection.

And connection, when done honestly, is still undefeated.

 

Are We Done with Generational Marketing Yet?

• by Elisa Becker , 4 hours ago

I’ll admit it: I used to love personas. I’d spend hours crafting profiles like “Lauren, the 39-year-old suburban mom who buys oat milk on Tuesdays” and feel like I’d cracked the code of human behavior. It felt smart, surgical, genius even. But now I’m cringing thinking about it.

In hindsight, we were kidding ourselves. Those personas were rarely as useful in the wild as they were in the pitch deck. And when the industry got tired of micro-targeting fatigue, we swung hard in the opposite direction: lumping millions of people into generational buckets.

Suddenly, whole campaigns were built on clichés like “Gen Z loves authenticity” or “Boomers don’t get tech.” It’s a clean shortcut, sure—but at best it creates watered-down work, and at worst it alienates the very people we’re trying to reach.

The Myth of Generational Homogeneity

Take millennials. At age 38, I’m one. But I’m a remarried city-dweller with no kids on the horizon, while most of my closest millennial contemporaries live in the suburbs, juggle kids’ schedules, and spend their weekends on baseball diamonds and trampoline parks. Same “generation.” Diverging priorities and buying behaviors.

That’s the problem. When we treat a generation as a monolith, we erase the nuances that actually matter. We end up with one-size-fits-none marketing -- and waste money chasing a phantom audience that doesn’t exist.

Culture already proves this. Gaming is a $200-billion industry spanning teenagers to retirees, with the average gamer now 34. Pickleball went from a retiree stereotype to the fastest-growing sport in America, played by college kids, mid-career professionals, and retirees alike. Passions don’t stay locked in one generation.

If marketers ignore that, we’re not just missing the mark, we’re leaving money on the table.

Beyond Generations: What Really Connects People

The strongest connections today are happening across age lines. A 22-year-old and a 62-year-old can bond more over pickleball, side hustles, or the same Discord community than with anyone who just shares their birth year.

The communities driving culture right now are age-agnostic: BookTok, fantasy football leagues, craft mocktail clubs. They’re defined by what people care about and how they show up.

And when brands show they “get it,” they don’t just gain relevance. They create belonging. That’s a stronger currency than generational cool points.

A New Playbook: Beyond Birth Year Buckets

Before your next brief, strike “Gen Z” from the target audience slide. Replace it with a passion, mindset, or habit.

This post was previously published in an earlier edition of Marketing Insider.

 Whilst the following was published back in November, it wasn't available for us to grab for you until today. Enjoy! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Insights

November 28, 2025

2026 TV Advertising Predictions: What to Expect

Trends, technologies, and opportunities to watch in the coming year

The TV advertising landscape is changing faster than ever. What worked in 2024 looks different from 2025, and 2026 promises even more evolution.

For small businesses, these changes are largely good news. The trends reshaping TV advertising are making it more accessible, more measurable, and more effective for businesses of all sizes.

Here are seven predictions for TV advertising in 2026, and what they mean for your business.

Prediction 1: AI-Powered Creative Goes Mainstream

The biggest barrier to TV advertising has always been production cost. Professional commercials required expensive agencies, video production crews, and weeks of development.

That's changing fast.

In 2026, AI-generated commercials will become the norm, not the exception. Tools that can create professional-quality video ads from text prompts, website content, or simple inputs will mature significantly.

What this means for small businesses:

• No production budget required to get started

• Faster iteration on creative concepts

• Personalized ads for different audiences become feasible

• The playing field levels between small businesses and big brands

Platforms like Adwave are already demonstrating this future. Provide a website URL, and AI generates a broadcast-ready commercial in minutes. By 2026, this will feel as normal as creating a social media post.

Prediction 2: FAST Channels Continue Explosive Growth

Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV (FAST) channels are booming. Services like Tubi, Pluto TV, and Freevee are attracting massive audiences who want free content with ads rather than paid subscriptions.

The numbers are dramatic:

• FAST revenue is projected to exceed $12 billion by 2027

• More than 80% of streaming households use at least one FAST service

• Ad loads on FAST channels are typically lower than traditional TV

What this means for small businesses:

• More premium inventory available at accessible prices

• Audiences accustomed to ads during streaming content

• New channels opening up for local targeting

• CPMs remaining competitive as supply grows

In 2026, expect FAST to become a primary channel for CTV advertising, not just a secondary option.

Prediction 3: Attribution Gets Easier (and More Expected)

"Half my advertising is wasted. The trouble is, I don't know which half."

That classic quote is becoming less true every year. TV advertising attribution is improving rapidly, and 2026 will bring significant advances.

What's improving:

• Cross-device tracking connecting TV views to digital actions

• QR code scanning becoming more normalized

• Brand lift studies becoming more accessible

• Real-time dashboards showing campaign performance

What this means for small businesses:

• Clearer picture of what's working

• Better ability to optimize campaigns in real-time

• Stronger case for TV in the marketing mix

• Reduced "leap of faith" for first-time advertisers

Platforms like Adwave already provide dashboards showing impressions, reach, and audience geography. Expect these capabilities to expand significantly.

Prediction 4: Interactive TV Ads Become Standard

The passive TV ad experience is evolving. Interactive elements are becoming more common:

• QR codes linking to websites, offers, or apps

• Voice commands ("OK Google, learn more about...")

• Click-to-action on smart TVs

• Shoppable ads with direct purchase capabilities

What this means for small businesses:

• Shorter path from impression to conversion

• New creative possibilities

• Better tracking through interactive engagement

• More direct response capabilities from brand campaigns

In 2026, including a QR code in your TV ad won't be innovative. It will be expected.

Prediction 5: Local Advertising Gets More Programmatic

Local TV advertising has historically been messy: different systems for different markets, manual negotiations, limited targeting options.

That's changing as programmatic buying expands to local markets:

• More inventory available through self-serve platforms

• Better geographic targeting at the ZIP code level

• Easier to run multi-market campaigns

• Simplified pricing and buying processes

What this means for small businesses:

• Easier access to local TV without agency relationships

• More precise targeting around your locations

• Ability to test in one market before expanding

• Better budget control and flexibility

The technology making national programmatic CTV possible is trickling down to local markets, making small business TV advertising more accessible than ever.

Prediction 6: SMB Adoption Accelerates

The biggest trend may be who's advertising, not how.

Small and medium businesses have historically avoided TV advertising, assuming it wasn't "for them." That assumption is breaking down:

• Lower minimum budgets (starting at $50 on platforms like Adwave)

• Simplified creative production through AI

• Better targeting reaching relevant local audiences

• Clearer ROI measurement

What this means:

• More businesses competing for attention (act now before it's crowded)

• Platform improvements driven by SMB needs

• More case studies and success stories from businesses like yours

• TV advertising becoming a standard part of SMB marketing mix

If you've been waiting to try TV advertising, 2026 may be the year your competitors stop waiting.

Prediction 7: New Entrants Shake Up the Market

The TV advertising technology market is attracting significant investment and innovation. Expect:

• New platforms making buying even simpler

• Better creative tools for non-experts

• More pricing competition benefiting advertisers

• Innovative targeting and measurement capabilities

The dominance of traditional TV ad buying is eroding as new players prove there are better ways to serve small business advertisers.

How to Prepare Your Business for These Changes

These predictions aren't just interesting, they're actionable. Here's how to position your business:

Start Now, Not Later

The best way to understand TV advertising in 2026 is to have experience from 2025. Start with a small test campaign:

• Learn how targeting works in your market

• Understand your audience's response

• Build baseline metrics to measure against

• Get comfortable with the tools and processes

Plan for AI-First Creative

As AI creative improves, plan to take advantage:

• Ensure your website and assets are high-quality (AI pulls from them)

• Document your brand guidelines clearly

• Build a library of images and messaging

• Be ready to iterate quickly on creative concepts

Embrace Measurement

When attribution improves, you want to be ready:

• Set up tracking on your website now

• Train your team to ask "how did you hear about us?"

• Define success metrics before you need them

• Build the habit of reviewing performance data

Stay Informed

The landscape is evolving quickly. Stay current:

• Follow industry publications

• Connect with your advertising platforms

• Watch what competitors are doing

• Test new features as they launch

Make 2026 Your TV Advertising Year

The trends are clear: TV advertising is becoming more accessible, more measurable, and more effective for small businesses. The question isn't whether these changes are coming, it's whether you'll be ready for them.

Adwave is built for this future. AI-powered creative generation, low minimum budgets, simple self-serve buying, and clear performance dashboards. Everything that's coming mainstream in 2026 is available today.

Don't wait for the future to arrive. Create your first TV ad now and enter 2026 with experience, insights, and momentum.

Related Resources:

Key Sales and Sales Management Trends (As of 2/17/2026):

 

As of February 17, 2026, the broadcast television sales landscape is defined by an urgent, AI-driven shift from "experimentation" to "execution" in a "Total TV" (linear + streaming) model, aimed at maximizing reach and accountability in a landscape where streaming viewership has surpassed combined cable and broadcast, say reports. 

Key Sales and Sales Management Trends (As of 2/17/2026):

• "Total TV" Implementation: Broadcasters are breaking down silos between linear and digital teams to sell audiences, not just channels, treating streaming and linear as a unified inventory source.
• AI-Driven Performance: Sales management is adopting AI to automate workflows, reduce production costs for SMBs, and enable real-time campaign optimization, moving away from "set-it-and-forget-it" models.
• Speed as a Competitive Moat: Sales teams are accelerating internal workflows to meet advertiser demands for rapid, data-driven proofs. Delayed approvals are causing missed opportunities, with competitors winning on speed and personalization.
• First-Party Data Necessity: Building and using direct viewer data is no longer optional but foundational to competitive, outcomes-based measurement.
• Localism via Technology: Local ad sales are shifting to programmatic, allowing for ZIP-code level targeting, with high-stakes, local sports content on broadcast driving revenue, while political advertising continues to utilize digital/streaming tools.
• Content and Commerce Convergence: Broadcasters are developing shoppable TV experiences (QR codes, interactive ads) to prove ROI, making TV a direct-response driver.
• Industry Consolidation: Major networks (like Hearst) are actively exploring deals to build scale to compete with tech giants. 

Technological and Operational Shifts:

• IP-Native Infrastructure: The transition to IP-based workflows has moved from pilot projects to required, "essential" technology in 2026, allowing for more flexible, software-defined operations.
• "Agentic" AI in Ad Ops: Sales ops teams are evolving from "doing" to "directing" by using AI agents to handle repetitive tasks, enabling human sales management to focus on higher-order strategy. 

Key 2026 Media Events Driving Revenue:

• Super Bowl LX (Feb 8, 2026): Reached $8–10 million for 30-second spots, with NBCUniversal selling out inventory across NBC, Peacock, and Telemundo.
• Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics & NBA All-Star Game: Managed via hybrid IP/digital infrastructures by partners like Comcast Business.