TV Stations Looking for
Big Ad Rebound In 2026?
Sep 29, 2025| Paige Albiniak|
Mid-term
elections, Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup expected to boost TV station
fortunes as they continue to battle industry headwinds.
The story of
spot TV is cyclical, with boom years benefiting from ever-increasing political
spending across a divided and heated environment as well as major sporting
events. Next year will certainly be a boom year: the mid-term elections are
expected to set spending records while excitement is already building for the
2026 Winter Olympics in Italy and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with matches to be
played across North America.
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In 2025, an
off-political year, TV station core spot advertising revenue is projected to
decline 0.2% to $17.49 billion with local spot revenue increasing 1.5%,
national spot revenue decreasing 4.3% and digital revenue up 2.8%, according to
S&P Global Market Intelligence. The 2025 decreases are due to a lack of
major events, such as a presidential election or Olympics, turning 2025 into a
sort of reset year. In addition, national advertising holding companies are
increasingly side-stepping local broadcasting when it comes to choosing
platforms because digital alternatives, such as CTV and Google and Meta, are so
much easier to buy.
But the
biggest impact will come from the 2026 mid-term elections, which are expected
to hit a record-setting $10.8 billion, up more than 20% fro“It’s a good thing
to be flat if you are in the TV station advertising business, which is really
shifting from a national ad buy market to a locally and digitally focused one,”
says Justin Nielson, head of Kagan research at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Overall,
total local TV station revenues should be down 12.5% to $21.81 billion in 2025.
That all
changes come 2026, when S&P Global anticipates total local TV revenue to
rebound 13.1% to $24.67 billion. In a particularly optimistic take, BIA
Advisory Services forecasts that core over-the-air TV advertising will increase
11% in 2026 due to settled tariff agreements, improved consumer confidence and
the Olympics and World Cup.
Midterms
In 2026 To Set Spending Records
m 2022’s
$8.9 billion, according to market intelligence firm AdImpact. Of that $10.8
billion, nearly half — or $5.3 billion — will go to broadcasters, AdImpact
says. Some view that number to be high, with S&P Global estimating
political spend on broadcast TV at $3.77 billion and BIA coming in even lower
at $3.2 billion.
Connected TV
(CTV) will be the big gainer in 2026, with AdImpact predicting that $2.5
billion in political spend will go to the country’s fastest-growing media type,
up 2% from 2024 to 23% of share, representing $124 million in revenue growth.
Closely
contested gubernatorial and Senate primaries in several states, as well as
heavy spending on issues, mean that spending will be more spread out over the
entire year instead of happening mostly in the fourth quarter, which is the
typical pattern of political years.
States
expected to have contested races include Georgia, which will see a tight race
between Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and a field of Republican candidates,
including former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, Rep.
Buddy Carter and Rep. Mike Collins. The Georgia governor’s race is also wide
open with current Gov. Brian Kemp term limited.
“Georgia is
going to be pistol hot,” says Steve Passwaiter, president of Silver Oak
Political.
Estimates
are that as much as $750 million could be spent in Georgia alone, with AdImpact
calling it one of the three most expensive states in the country. The other two
are California — which will hold elections for governor and Senate as well as
field several ballot initiatives — and Michigan, which will also see contested
governor’s and Senate races. California is expected to see more than $1 billion
spent on local media, while Michigan gets close to that number, reports
AdImpact.
Analysts
also are watching races in North Carolina, Maine, Iowa and Wisconsin, while
primaries in red states such as Kentucky and Texas could drive early
spending.
Winter
Olympics, FIFA World Cup Seen as Opportunities
Beyond
political advertising, enthusiasm is ramping up for next year’s major sporting
events, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be played in 16 cities
across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. In the U.S., those cities are Atlanta,
Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City,
Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle. The final match will be held July 19
at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Fox is airing the games in English,
while NBC-owned Telemundo has Spanish-language rights to the event.
“I’ve never
had an event with this much activity this far out,” says Tom Fleming, SVP,
advertising, Fox Television Stations. “Fox has stations in eight of the 11
markets where there are going to be venues in the U.S. Interest in the World
Cup has been like nothing I have experienced.”
The Winter
Olympics in Milano Cortino, Italy, kicks off Feb. 6 and runs through Feb. 22,
with events being broadcast and streamed on NBC, Peacock and USA Network with
CNBC providing some coverage. Telemundo again has exclusive Spanish-language
rights.
Economic
Uncertainty Is an Ongoing Concern
Still,
ongoing economic uncertainty, created by tariffs, rising inflation and
continued high interest rates could throw off overall predictions.
This
uncertainty is hitting the U.S. automotive industry — typically TV’s top
advertiser — particularly hard. TheWall Street Journal last Thursday reported
that auto seller CarMax’s stock price plunged 25% after its quarterly earnings
took a dive, noting that it was “the latest in a series of unsettling
developments in an industry under strain from President Trump’s tariffs and
carmakers’ recalibration of expensive electrification strategies.”
Auto makers
and dealers aren’t the only industries under strain due to tariffs, with
categories such as telecommunications, technology and restaurants facing
pricing pressure as well.
Pharmaceutical
Advertising Under Threat
Another
question mark is federal and legislative action targeted at direct-to-consumer
pharmaceutical ad spending. In 2024, pharmaceutical companies spent $10.1
billion on prescription drug advertising, with $5.15 billion of that going to
TV. On Sept. 9, the White House sent memos to the Department of Health and
Human Services and the Food and Drug Administration directing them to “ensure
transparency and accuracy in direct-to-consumer prescription drug
advertisements.” Banning pharmaceutical ads has been a key issue for HHS
Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
There are
also several bills in Congress, mostly led by Independents and Democrats, that
would prohibit or limit pharmaceutical companies’ spending on advertising. On
June 12, Senators Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine) introduced
the End Prescription Drug Ads Now Act, with Senators Chris Murphy (D-Conn.),
Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) joining as
co-sponsors. If enacted, the bill would prohibit direct-to-consumer advertising
on television, radio, print media, digital platforms and social media.
That said,
alarm bells don’t seem to be ringing across the industry about the imminent end
of prescription drug advertising.
“There are a
lot of lobbying efforts against any proposal that would eliminate or ban pharma
ads,” Nielson says. “It’s hard to say in this political environment, but I
don’t put much emphasis on it.”
“We are
paying close attention to a potential pharma ban but in this climate, there are
topics du jour that sometimes get moved on from,” says Fox’s Fleming. “Pharma
is more of a network phenomenon, but it’s been a nice addition to the
portfolio. There had been a lot of advertising around weight-loss drugs, but
they’ve slowed down in local.”
Meanwhile,
professional and legal services continue to spend heavily on local television,
including on growing CTV and OTT platforms.
“The local
advertising market continues to be more robust than the national spot market,
benefiting broadcasters with its community connections,” writes S&P Global
Intelligence. “Although broadcast content, particularly live sports, remains
attractive to advertisers, there is a noticeable shift of advertising budgets
to connected TV, social media and other digital platforms, aligning with the
audience’s move from linear to streaming services.”
System 21© might
be local television’s best resource for generating new direct revenue for the
year ahead, says Dr. Philip Jay LeNoble. Today, System 21 is being taught by
Michael Guld of the Guld Resource Group who may be reached at 804-356-7006.
