2025's Future of Local TV

 

Tom Buono, founder and CEO of BIA Advisory Services, shared insights into the future of local advertising at the annual TVB Forward Conference in New York. In a presentation to broadcast executives, Buono revealed shifts in ad spending patterns, key business categories investing in local television, and the prospects of mergers and acquisitions in the broadcast industry in 2025. Television And Digital Convergence.

BIA’s local television advertising forecast — which rolls up linear TV, TV digital and connected TV/Over-the-Top — projects local revenue will reach $21 billion in 2025, a 3.6% increase from 2024 when examining the industry without political advertising. CTV/OTT is the largest growing segment of local television, bolstering the industry’s digital growth.

“Our review of this year’s spending and our latest forecast for 2025 indicates a pivotal moment in local advertising, with digital media continuing its robust growth trajectory,” Buono said. “While traditional television viewing remains resilient, the surge in streaming services is reshaping the media landscape.”

BIA’s analysis reveals an evolving television landscape where traditional and digital platforms are increasingly interconnected:

• Traditional TV over-the-air (OTA) revenue continues to demonstrate stability at approximately $16.5 billion (with political) in 2024, though its overall share of wallet has declined from 11.4 percent to 9.6 percent from 2019 to 2025.
• TV Digital (i.e., owned and operated mobile apps & websites) grew steadily from 2019 to 2024. CTV experienced rapid growth during this same timeframe.​
• Legal Services is the largest category spender for local TV at $1.85 billion across TV OTA, TV Digital and CTV/OTT.

“The local broadcast television ecosystem is evolving beyond traditional metrics,” Buono said. “We’re seeing local broadcasters successfully adapt their strategies to encompass both conventional and digital delivery methods, creating more diverse revenue streams.”

One of the key categories for local television, automotive, is projected to maintain a dominant advertising position in local television with Tier 1 – Automotive Manufacturers (OEMs) spending $1.1 billion, Tier 2 – Local Automotive Dealers Associations spending $863.7 million, and Tier 3 – New Car Dealers spending $750.1 million.

Another key consideration for local television in 2025 will be the new administration. Buono anticipates the Trump Administration and its nominee for FCC chair, Brendan Carr, will foster a more business-friendly environment for mergers and acquisitions. This shift could empower broadcasters to explore strategic ventures and partnerships, bolstering their position against streaming and tech giants. Additionally, if the new administration addresses Big Tech’s market dominance, broadcasters may gain a more competitive playing field.