COMMENTARY

Political Ad Records This Season? More Coming In 2024

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

Rising midterm political advertising looks to easily outpace 2018 midterm revenue this year -- up to $9.7 billion, according to an AdImpact estimate. But it doesn't stop there.

At that level, it will also easily pass the 2020 Presidential record total of $9.0 billion. In recent history, these levels were unheard of for midterm election years. (The 2018 midterms totaled $3.96 billion).

Local TV station owners -- big beneficiaries of the every-other-year spike in political advertising -- are now licking their lips in anticipation.

But let's look further -- to the 2024 Presidential election season. All that could mean even higher results.

TV stations might have little to no room for all kinds of marketers -- from those high-priced automotive marketers to rising sports betting services, as well as regular pharmaceuticals or finance/insurance advertisers.

Imagine if Donald Trump makes another attempt to run again, with the history looking like this: Losing the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million in 2016 to Hillary Clinton, and then, in 2020, losing the popular vote by 7 million to Joe Biden. What if two years from now, he could lose by 10 million?

All this brings up advertising. Can the GOP do what it has virtually always done through the year -- raise more political ad commitments than their Democrat opponents?

Now think about "earned media." Facebook and Twitter still maintain permanent suspensions of Trump accounts due to his January 6 insurrections posts/activity. Recently, Facebook said to Politico that it won't speed up a decision on whether to reinstate his account.

That means he needs to find another way to post many more social missives. Think his Truth Social is going to be enough? What about big TV news coverage? The Fox News Channel seems to be cutting back on Trump coverage.

To overcome all of this there will need a lot of political messaging -- paid, earned media, or otherwise.

TV stations need to accommodate political advertising, per FCC requirements. The collateral damage is that high-priced automotive marketers, regular pharmaceuticals or finance/insurance advertisers and sports betting services, may get pushed aside.

No problem. Down to the wire -- in crunch time -- political big dollars seeking a needed share of voice will find happy and ever-hungry TV stations -- and TV news channels -- ready to accommodate.

THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR TV ADVERTISING DURING A RECESSION

 

SPONSOR CONTENT FROM Marketing Architects

THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR TV ADVERTISING DURING A RECESSION

If there’s a silver lining when recession storm clouds gather, it’s that certain advertising opportunities provide brands a chance to get ahead.

Advertising during an economic downturn has well-proven benefits, including staying top-of-mind for purchase decisions, rebounding quickly, and even gaining market share. And because many large-scale advertisers pull back during downturns, brands that continue to spend see their ads grow even more efficient. There’s less competition for both media and consumer attention.

So why is marketing typically the first budget cut when analysts predict trouble on the horizon? Marketing principles don’t change just because the environment does. And historical examples show advertising grows in value during downturns. When times are good, advertising is important. In times of uncertainty, it’s crucial.

---

When times are good, advertising is important. In times of uncertainty, it’s crucial.

---

So cutting spend isn’t the right move. But deciding how to allocate that spend may require a new strategy. Brands rightly prioritize performance, focusing on the most efficient marketing channels. In practice, however, this tends to mean shuffling budget away from traditional channels toward digital. It’s understandable. Digital is easily measured. Its inherent accountability is reassuring for those worried about making every dollar count. But digital on its own isn't necessarily the best use of ad dollars.

Traditional channels, especially TV advertising, are ideally suited for driving business outcomes during an economic downturn. This statement may seem counterintuitive, but here’s why it’s true:

1)     Consumers trust traditional channels.

When uncertainty is high, trust matters even more for brands. And consumers still trust traditional channels far more than digital or social. 80% of customers trust TV advertising to inform purchase decisions. That's compared to just 61% trusting paid search ads and only 25% for online display. Double the number of people say TV advertising leaves a positive impression than those that say the same of digital. When establishing relationships with customers, TV gives brands an inherent advantage.

It's no surprise, then, that traditional ad spend is on the rise for the first time in a decade. More brands are prioritizing the built-in credibility of traditional media. Plus, traditional channels can help brands stand out in competitive categories and diversify marketing mixes overly reliant on digital.

2)    Awareness is key for getting the most from your ads.

Part of the rationale behind recession advertising is that you’re more able to drive awareness because there’s less competition. But digital channels alone don’t create the same top-of-funnel awareness as TV. So when brands continue spending but don't consider awareness, they fail to make the most of that spend.

TV advertising is still the best channel for brand building. But even more importantly, TV can successfully drive awareness for your brand without sacrificing performance. TV also increases the effectiveness of other channels—its “halo effect” can dramatically boost digital performance.

3)    Efficient media rates increase the likelihood of success on TV.

Many brands avoid TV because of the high costs. But as large-scale advertisers cut back their spend and drop buys, that inventory becomes available at highly efficient rates. Based on predictions of an upcoming recession, such openings are possible in the second half of 2022, even as general media prices increase.

The challenge, however, is finding these opportunities as they arise. Brands should leverage a media partner using artificial intelligence and automation to identify, and capitalize on, newly available inventory. Because as media efficiencies increase, so does a brand’s chances of achieving success with TV advertising.

---

As media efficiencies increase, so does a brand’s chances of achieving success with TV advertising.

---

 

It may seem odd to think about a recession being the right time to launch TV, especially for brands new to the channel. But successfully launching a TV campaign can mean gaining an invaluable growth driver for your business.

Although this is an opportunity with a time limit, testing TV when there's a built-in advantage can help brands prove the value of the channel while identifying what works for them. These learnings can then drive awareness and performance on the channel long-term. Because TV is a channel capable of future-proofing your brand, whatever comes next.

 National and local transactional revenue dips are further examples of why local-direct businesses are key to revenue growth going forward. Philip Jay LeNoble, PhD.

July Posts Worst Ad Decline In Two Years, Big Categories Lead Contraction

• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, 6 hours ago

The U.S. advertising marketplace contracted 12.7% in July versus the same month a year ago, marking its first double-digit rate of decline since July 2020, according to a MediaPost analysis of data from Standard Media Index's U.S. Ad Market Tracker.

Compared with July 2020, which was the tail-end of the COVID-19 ad recession, the U.S. ad market was up 29.7%.

Smaller ad categories continue to be sustaining ad spending better than the largest ones. While the top 10 ad categories declined 14% in year-over-year ad spending in July, all other categories contracted only 11%.

According to SMI's analysis of its core data, specific categories showed mixed results for July, but overwhelmingly contracting ones.

Other than travel (+28%), apparel (+4%), and retail (+1%), the other categories were all in decline, although consumer packaged goods slid only 0.1%.

The 23% decline in entertainment and media category spending in July is noteworthy, given that it is Hollywood's big theatrical season and conventional wisdom is that its theatrical business has been rebounding. Media also is surprising, given the supposed streaming category marketing war.

Noting that July was the second consecutive month that the major categories reduced their ad spending, SMI's analysts commented:

"The number of growing sectors continued to dwindle, reaching four this month, compared to five last month, and ten in the first quarter 2022 months.

"Travel, apparel & accessories, retail and CPG category groups expanded and sat at peak levels for the month, representing an opportunity for media companies.

"Travel represented the strongest lift year-over-year, a position held every month from April 2021 onward. Travel expenditures have quadrupled vs. 2020 pandemic levels."

Broadcasting & Cable 

Linear TV Ad Spending Fell 1% in June: SMI Reports

By Jon Lafayette published 1 day ago

Broadcast gains 23%, cable off 12%

• (opens in new tab)
 
• (opens in new tab)
 

(Image credit: Chris Clor via Getty Images)

Advertising spending on national linear TV fell 1% in June to $3.138 billion, according to new figures from Standard Media Index.

Spending on cable TV dropped 12% to $1.946 billion, while broadcast increased 23% to $1.05 billion, SMI said. Syndication grew 33% to 142.2 million.

The June performance left linear TV spending for the second quarter down 1% at $9.617 billion. Cable was down 1%, broadcast was down 2% and syndication was up 6%.

For the quarter spending on sports was up a whopping 21%, mostly because the NBA Finals were played in June this year versus July last year. Entertainment programming was down 5% and news was down 7%.

Spending resulting from last years strong upfront generated a 3% increase in the quarter, while scatter was down 15%. Direct response spending was down 4%.

(Image credit: Standard Media Index)

The drop in cable spending meant that Warner Bros. Discovery’s share of the maret fell 18% in June from a year ago to 21%, still leading all media companies. The Walt Disney Co. was up 11% to 19%. Comcast was down 7% to 18%, Paramount was up 7% to 16% and Fox was up 18$ to 5%.

Top spending ad categories in June were consumer packaged goods, down 13% year over year, pharmaceuticals up 0.2%, general business, up 13%, financial services, down 22% and tech, down 7%. Entertainment and media was up 34% and autos were up 7%.  ■

 

Sinclair's Bally Sports+ Streamer To Launch In September

• by Wayne Friedman , 2 hours ago

With the coming NBA and NFL season, Sinclair Broadcast Group Bally Sports+ streaming services will launch its long-anticipated Bally Sports+ streaming service next month for $19.99 a month, across all 19 Bally Sports-brand regional sport networks on September 26.

Subscribers will have access to live, local NBA and NHL broadcasts, pre- and post-game shows, regional college football and basketball and high school sports, among other content.

In an SEC filing a year ago, Sinclair predicted Bally Sports+ could eventually attract about 4.4 million subscribers and bring around $2 billion in annual revenue.

The service will be distributed on mobile and tablet devices operating on iOS or Android, Android TV, TvOS, and BallySports.com.

This follows the June pre-launch of Bally Sports+ in five regional markets -- Bally Sports Detroit, Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Sun and Bally Sports Wisconsin.

In May, Diamond Sports Group -- the regional sports network (RSN) unit under Sinclair -- hired Michael Schneider, a senior Hulu marketing executive, to be the chief operating officer and general manager of Bally Sports+, its new direct-to-consumer (D2C) sports division.

Diamond Sports Group has been working for a few years to solve problems among traditional pay TV providers, some of whom have backed out RSN carriage-- due to weak profit margins.

This includes a number of virtual pay TV providers that dropped Bally Sports RSNs -- including Hulu + Live TV and YouTube TV.

For its second-quarter period, Sinclair's overall advertising revenues sank 25% to $366 million, primarily due to lower results from Sinclair' Diamond Sports Group. Distribution revenue was also impacted, sinking to $430 million -- less than half the total of $1.1 billion it reported a year ago.

Better news for Diamond Sports in April was Sinclair's company-wide renewal of the retransmission carriage deal for its TV stations with Charter Communications service. This included carriage of Bally Sports RSNs.

 

National TV Ad Spending Slips 1% In Q2

• by Wayne Friedman , August 9, 2022

Following recent trends of the last several years, national linear TV advertising spending continues to weaken slightly compared to previous years, as June dipped 1% to $3.1 billion, according to Standard Media Index.

The decline in June followed a 2% drop in May (which landed at around $3.2 billion). April was up 1% ($3.1 billion).

Looking more broadly at the second quarter of this year, national TV ad spend was down 1% (to about $9.4 billion). Cable TV networks slipped 1%, while broadcast networks lost 2% and U.S. syndication was 6% higher.

Cable TV came in at $6 billion for the April-June 2020 period -- maintaining its two-thirds share of all national TV linear ad spend. Seventy-five percent of all national TV ad spend in the second quarter came via upfront deals made a year ago.

In better news, national TV spend is up 13% versus April-June 2020, a period heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Still, national TV spend in the second quarter of this year is down 20% from 2019, when it was at around $11.8 billion.

In terms of overall market share, the top five network-based media owners in terms of national TV ad spend in June: Warner Bros. Discovery (21%); Walt Disney (19%); Comcast Corp. (18%); Paramount Global (16%); and Fox Corp. (5%).

The top five TV network-based media companies collectively pulled in 80% of all national TV advertising dollars in June. 

SMI captures 95% of all media agency spend -- all major holding companies and most major independents -- with data coming from raw billing records of all national media transactions. This includes television, digital, out-of-home, print, and radio.

 RADIO WORLD

Media Monitors’ Radio Spot Service Accredited by MRC

Web platform provides advertising analytics

BY ELLE KEHRES ⋅
PUBLISHED: AUGUST 10, 2022

Media Monitors has once again been accredited by the Media Rating Council (MRC) for its radio and TV spot data.

Media Monitors serves the U.S. media and advertising industries with near real-time intelligence on broadcast TV, cable, radio, print and digital. For radio, Media Monitors is the only provider of spot occurrence data in the nation. It’s web platform can be accessed for sales lead-generation and advertising analytics.

The company has been accredited by the MRC — a nonprofit industry association whose goal is to ensure that measurement services are valid, reliable and effective — since 2008 for its U.S. radio spot data, and since 2017 for its U.S. TV spot data.

Tracking millions of recurring radio and television commercials, Media Monitors claims its data is “unmatched” in terms of speed and accuracy.

“Customers can access data that is within one hour of real time,” Media Monitors said in a press release. “The data is often used by clients as a powerful tool for tracking competitive advertising.”

“The standards MRC holds are core to our company’s values and expectations,” said Media Monitors President and CEO Philippe Generali. “Being awarded MRC accreditation is an incredible accomplishment and shows our commitment as the leader in local media monitoring.”