   | ||
A media critique by Wayne Friedman Monday, Sept. 28, 2015
Live TV plus same-day time-shifted viewing ratings still hold value. For the first week of the new TV season, average prime-time ratings among the key 18-49 viewers have been down 8% on average, looking at preliminary Nielsen live program plus same-day time-shifting viewing among the five English-language speaking networks.
Looking at the first four days of new season: On Thursday 18-49 ratings among ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and CW were down 18% to a 9.6; Wednesday showed a 27% increase to a 10.7 (chiefly because of one show, “Empire”, which grew the night almost three-fold for Fox versus a year ago); Tuesday slipped 3% to a 8.8; and Monday was down 26% to a 9.0 rating. TV network executives will tell you the live program/same-day measure doesn’t say much. Prime-time live plus same-day ratings aren’t much of measure for TV executives who want to account for at all kind of viewing -- time-shifted, video-on-demand, digital and otherwise. But for TV advertisers -- in general, those same-day program ratings continue to carry some insight. More than a few veteran media agency executives continue to look at live program plus same day results as a proxy because they still run somewhat close to C3 ratings — just a couple of tenths of a rating point. C3 is the average commercial ratings plus three days of time shifting, still the main measure for national TV marketers in their media deals. Why is this necessary? Because C3 ratings aren’t released regularly -- by Nielsen. This isn’t good in a real-time media world. Media agencies/marketers still need to account for the usual under-delivery of ratings on a timely basis. That 8% drop in ratings points over the first four days of this season might sound roughly familiar. MoffettNathanson Research says there was a 9% decline in C3 ratings in August for the broadcast networks in prime time. In a similar vein, it says there was 9% decline in C3 among 18-49 viewers for total day viewing for the entire 2014-2015 season for the top four broadcast networks. Cable TV networks have showed similar results. Does this give TV researchers some calm, that there are some logical predictions of TV viewing to come this season? Yes... and no. |
Monday, September 28, 2015
Looking At More Broadcast Erosion -- Any Way You Measure It
Monday, September 21, 2015
Programmatic Potential Includes Ad Targeting
One way programmatic selling platforms may benefit broadcasters is by giving them a means a targeting certain audiences for advertising, says Seth Haberman of Visible World at TVB. “That kind of targeting, I believe is valuable, and will become more and more of the television ecosystem."
By Diana Marzsalek
TVNewsCheck,
Along with streamlining transactions and increasing the universe of potential buyers, programmatic or automatic selling platforms may allow broadcasters to better target audiences for advertisers, according programmatic pros.
“There are platforms that will allow people to target down to particular households,” says, Seth Haberman, co-founder-CEO of Visible World, a sell-side platform vendor. That is what advertisers, who increasingly want to reach consumer subsets, want, he says.
“That kind of targeting, I believe is valuable, and will become more and more of the television ecosystem,” he says.
Haberman’s comments were part of a larger discussion about programmatic, or automated, ad sales, and how it can benefit local TV, at last Thursday’s annual TVB Forward conference in New York.
Panelists, addressed a range of issues broadcasters are grappling with as they incorporate programmatic ad sales, including targeting, aggregating platforms to broaden reach and how programmatic meshes with traditional sales.
In the programmatic world, local TV is playing catch up with digital media.
Saying a “force of change” is underway, Baer says automated advertising “is great news for what we’re bringing to the market,” and will help stave off a decline in TV’s advertising revenue.
“We recognize the need, we know what’s happening with television, and we’re trying to provide solutions to going after the problem,” she says.
Yet there are downsides to automated ad sales, panelists say.
While automated systems make targeting specific consumers possible, the idea of conflicts with TV as a mass medium, Haberman says. “Reach is the most powerful thing,” he said.
“Television is priced by the number of houses you reach and, as everyone knows, there is exponential growth. The bigger your reach, the higher your prices,” he says.
“The whole strategy behind audience targeting is a procurement strategy. It’s not a money making strategy.”
TV stations need to sell inventory across platforms to reach more consumers, says Brandon Condon, CEO of Media Properties Holding, which owns the buy-side platform AdMore.
“You have incredibly valuable audiences that individually are just not scalable,” Condon said. “You have to aggregate them.”
Eric Mathewson, founder-CEO of WideOrbit, a traffic management platform well a sell-side programmatic platform, says automated ad selling is just one way of conducting business, and will remain so as other systems come and go.
“Its important to allow buyers to buy how they want to and sellers to sell how they want to,” he says. “We have to be flexible.”
“There are platforms that will allow people to target down to particular households,” says, Seth Haberman, co-founder-CEO of Visible World, a sell-side platform vendor. That is what advertisers, who increasingly want to reach consumer subsets, want, he says.
Haberman’s comments were part of a larger discussion about programmatic, or automated, ad sales, and how it can benefit local TV, at last Thursday’s annual TVB Forward conference in New York.
Panelists, addressed a range of issues broadcasters are grappling with as they incorporate programmatic ad sales, including targeting, aggregating platforms to broaden reach and how programmatic meshes with traditional sales.
In the programmatic world, local TV is playing catch up with digital media.
Joy Baer, president of the media buying software company STRATA, says TV sales teams are in different stages of implementing automated advertising, and ways of using it.
“There’s a bunch of experimentation going on and trying things out,” Baer says.Saying a “force of change” is underway, Baer says automated advertising “is great news for what we’re bringing to the market,” and will help stave off a decline in TV’s advertising revenue.
“We recognize the need, we know what’s happening with television, and we’re trying to provide solutions to going after the problem,” she says.
Yet there are downsides to automated ad sales, panelists say.
While automated systems make targeting specific consumers possible, the idea of conflicts with TV as a mass medium, Haberman says. “Reach is the most powerful thing,” he said.
“Television is priced by the number of houses you reach and, as everyone knows, there is exponential growth. The bigger your reach, the higher your prices,” he says.
“The whole strategy behind audience targeting is a procurement strategy. It’s not a money making strategy.”
TV stations need to sell inventory across platforms to reach more consumers, says Brandon Condon, CEO of Media Properties Holding, which owns the buy-side platform AdMore.
“You have incredibly valuable audiences that individually are just not scalable,” Condon said. “You have to aggregate them.”
Eric Mathewson, founder-CEO of WideOrbit, a traffic management platform well a sell-side programmatic platform, says automated ad selling is just one way of conducting business, and will remain so as other systems come and go.
“Its important to allow buyers to buy how they want to and sellers to sell how they want to,” he says. “We have to be flexible.”
Broadcast Nets See More Scatter Activity, But Overall Media Ad Dollars Up
- by Wayne Friedman, September 18, 2015, 10:22 AM
Broadcast TV networks in August, for the most part, continued to see TV marketers placing more effort around buying TV inventory closer to airtime -- in the scatter market -- versus with upfront buys. When it came to scatter buys placed for the month, broadcast witnessed a 16% improvement, with cable networks registering flat volume in scatter year-to-year, per Standard Media Index, which culls data from the booking systems of five of six media agencies, totaling 80% of all U.S. national advertising spending.Upfront dollars -- commitments made back in the summer 2014 -- showed 12% less volume for broadcast TV networks. Cable TV was 4% higher in business versus August 2014.
Generally, this higher scatter/lower upfront business has been a trend for broadcast, and some other networks, over the most recent months.
For August, total broadcast TV networks’ media business was down 6% on a year-to-year basis in the month, with cable TV networks up slightly by 3%.
TV was up overall in August, 3%. Spot TV gained 17%; syndication dropped 2%; and local cable picked 11%.
The best-performing networks included Hispanic broadcast networks, as well as double-digit volume gains for cable networks TNT, TBS, Food Network and AMC Networks. HGTV also scored well.
Overall advertising dollars -- for all media -- gained 11% in August versus the same month a year before. Digital media again was a big factor.
Digital media continued its strong upward trend -- gaining 21% versus the same month a year ago. Looking specifically at different digital media: social media, soared 87%; video sites, up 33%; and Internet radio, 26% higher.
Traditional out-of-home media climbed 41%; newspapers gained 11% (thanks to better back-to-school marketing business); and radio picked up 9%. Magazines sank 10%.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Radio Added To TV Ads Is a Winning NFL Mix.
INSIDERADIO
September 17, 2015
For National Football League advertisers, it could be time for a momentum-shifting substitution. Specifically, subbing in radio buys for some TV ad time can increase consumer exposure and deliver hard-to-reach consumers. Westwood One, the Cumulus Media-owned national radio syndicator for NFL games, says its NFL games deliver both huge overall audiences and more frequency than TV—from casual listeners to die-hard fans. That seemingly makes radio a perfect complement to existing TV advertising, which performs well with the heaviest consumers, but misses out on less avid fans. According to new data from Westwood One and Nielsen, the NFL on Westwood One reaches more than 21 million listeners each season, and 7.3 million men 25-54, or one in five adult men, in the 48 PPM-measured markets. And, perhaps most importantly for the radio industry pitch, listeners are more consistent across levels of fan engagement than TV viewers. For instance, time spent listening for NFL broadcasts on Westwood One was evenly distributed across five types of users (about 20% each for light, medium-light, medium, medium-heavy and heavy), compared to TV broadcasts, where the heaviest viewers represented 54% of all football TV viewing. Among the more casual audiences, radio outperforms TV, with "light" fans accounting for 15% of radio’s audience, compared to just 1% for TV, and "medium-light" fans representing 19% of radio’s listenership, compared to 5% of the TV audience. By advertising on radio, marketers have a better chance at reaching casual NFL consumers, who are still a highly marketable audience. "Time spent among Westwood One’s NFL radio audience is very consistent among the five listening groups of Americans," Westwood One’s Brandon Berman, senior VP for Sports sales and marketing, wrote in a blog post. "For NFL radio advertisers, this means an even distribution of reach and frequency."
WideOrbit Makes Programmatic Automatic. Ad management provider WideOrbit is launching
a programmatic marketplace for radio stations that use its ad trafficking software. Branded as WO
Programmatic Radio, the cloud-based platform will match advertiser demand with inventory from
the company’s WO Traffic clients to enable buyers and sellers to make automated ad transactions.
Entravision Communications is the exchange’s first radio client. Programmatic or automated ad buying is expected to account for $14.88 billion of the roughly $58.6 billion digital advertising market this year, according to eMarketer. It’s slowly making its way to traditional media including radio and TV, where buyers see it as an easier way to place media buys across a large number of
stations, reduce operational costs and use data to more carefully target their campaigns. WideOrbit says integrating the automated exchange with its ad trafficking software will make it simple for stations to review, accept and air programmatically transacted ads. Participating stations aren’t required to “carve out” inventory to participate, the company says, and can review offers alongside existing business, listen to the ad copy and decide if and when to accept offers. In a press release, Entravision COO Jeff Liberman said the exchange will allow its general managers to “compare programmatic offers with their other sold business” and will “help us guarantee that our programmatic sales channel is driving new revenue to our stations.”
In Stagnant Ad Market, Radio Makes Big Waves. Ad spending for local radio climbed 10.6% in Q2 2015, making radio one of only seven types of media—and the only traditional one—to grow ad revenue last quarter out of 22 total, according to new data from Kantar Media. The figures are based on radio stations in 36 markets tracked by Kantar Media, which represent about half of the U.S. population, and thus aren’t comparable to Radio Advertising Bureau numbers, which are culled from a larger Miller Kaplan Arase sample. Overall, total U.S. ad spending declined 3.9% in Q2 to $38 billion and by the same percent in the first half.
The sluggish results seem to be the new normal. For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. ad spend is lagging nominal GDP growth. In a statement, Jon Swallen, chief research officer at Kantar Media North America, called it "a streak that might have once seemed unimaginable but now would seem to be par for the course." But according to Kantar, radio isn’t suffering like other media platforms. Local Hispanic radio also posted growth last quarter, with ad spending climbing 4.2% for Q2 2015 and up 5.2% for the first half of the year. National spot radio inched up 1.2% in Q2, compared to a year ago, while network radio dropped 8.4%. In contrast, ad spending on TV platforms dropped 4.5% in Q2, with cable down 5.1% and network TV up slightly at 1%. To help offset the sluggish ad market, Kantar notes, both radio stations and TV networks are increasing commercial loads. Radio stations added 2% more ad time, while broadcast TV networks carried 2.8% more paid ad time and cable aired 4.6% more minutes. And two-thirds of the TV networks tracked by Kantar have increased their commercial loads compared to last year, with five up to 20 minutes per hour in primetime (including network promos).
Ad spending hit hard in second quarter
Media economy
Media Declines by 3.9 percent, with big drops for print and cable TV
This story outlines what's happening in the ad agency business with little or no reflection with what is going on in markets nationwide with respect to local-direct business. Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D. C.A.
September 17, 2015
Last year’s World Cup boosted Univision’s ad dollars in second quarter, making for tough comparisons this year.A few years ago, this would have been a clear indication that the media economy is struggling. But these days, with advertisers pulling back on traditional media in favor of cheaper, better-targeted new media, the declines are as much an indication of the changing industry as they are a weakness in the ad economy.
TV, for example, fell 4.5 percent in second quarter, while newspapers dropped 12.7 percent. But digital grew 2.4 percent.
Many advertisers are shifting money from those media to digital. Since digital also costs less, advertisers can spend less money to reach the same number of people, which leads to a decline in total ad dollars.
With those trends at play, analysts are no longer expecting major ad spending growth.
“Measured ad growth is on track to lag nominal GDP for the fifth consecutive year since emerging from the Great Recession, a streak that might have once seemed unimaginable but now would seem to be par for the course,” says Jon Swallen, chief research officer at Kantar Media North America.
Cable took a particularly hard hit in second quarter, with spending down 5.1 percent. Kantar says auto manufacturers, movies, restaurants and telecom pulled back on cable ads.
Of course, Spanish-language TV also plummeted, off 22.4 percent, but half of that was due to tough comparisons. Last year during second quarter Univision carried the hugely popular World Cup.
Print took another deep blow.
Not only were newspapers off nearly 13 percent, including a 13.9 percent drop for local papers, but magazines were off 7.7 percent.
Sunday magazines especially struggled, down 41.9 percent, partly due to the closure of USA Weekend late last year.
Kantar notes that the newspaper decline is largely due to shifting budgets from print to digital.
And digital is booming. Paid search was up 7.7 percent, and a slew of other new media not yet measured by Kantar, such as mobile, video and social media, are not even factored into those gains.
Top 10 Advertising CategoriesSecond Quarter 2015 ($ Millions) | ||
Media Type (In rank order of Q2 2015 spending)
|
Q2 2015 v 2014
|
Jan-June 2015-2014
|
TELEVISION PLATFORMS
|
-4.5%
|
-3.8%
|
· Cable TV
|
-5.1%
|
-0.8%
|
· Network TV
|
1.0%
|
-4.8%
|
· Spot TV
|
-1.8%
|
-4.4%
|
· Spanish Language TV
|
-22.4%
|
-11.3%
|
· Syndication – National
|
-3.3%
|
-4.1%
|
DIGITAL PLATFORMS
|
2.4%
|
1.3%
|
· Paid Search
|
7.7%
|
7.6%
|
· Online Display (PC Desktop Only)
|
-4.7%
|
-7.0%
|
MAGAZINE PLATFORMS
|
-7.7%
|
-8.2%
|
· Consumer Magazines
|
-5.5%
|
-6.2%
|
· B-to-B Magazines
|
-6.3%
|
-5.3%
|
· Sunday Magazines
|
-41.9%
|
-37.0%
|
· Local Magazines
|
-1.2%
|
-2.4%
|
· Spanish Language Magazines
|
-13.7%
|
-15.8%
|
NEWSPAPER PLATFORMS
|
-12.7%
|
-14.0%
|
· Local Newspapers
|
-13.9%
|
-14.9%
|
· National Newspapers
|
-4.2%
|
-8.9%
|
· Spanish Language Newspapers
|
-18.9%
|
-11.3%
|
RADIO PLATFORMS
|
5.0%
|
3.4%
|
· Local Radio
|
10.6%
|
7.9%
|
· National Spot Radio
|
1.2%
|
-1.6%
|
· Network Radio
|
-8.4%
|
-5.4%
|
· Hispanic Local Radio
|
4.2%
|
5.2%
|
OUT OF HOME PLATFORMS
|
4.0%
|
4.1%
|
· Outdoor
|
2.2%
|
2.6%
|
· Cinema
|
14.9%
|
16.1%
|
FSIs
|
-15.6%
|
-9.7%
|
TOTAL
|
-3.9%
|
-3.9%
|
Source: Kantar Media
| ||
Spot TV 2016: Total Up 13.5%, Core Up 2%
September 17, 2015
By Janet Stilson
The voracious appetites of politicos for ad time will cause TV station revenue to grow at a healthy double-digit clip in 2016, but non-political or core spending will contribute little to the windfall.
So say 14 station groups and industry analysts surveyed by TVNewsCheck’s annual Spot TV forecast.
Their consensus is that total spot, political included, in the upcoming presidential election year will grow a whopping 13.5%, while the core component creeps up just 2%.
For those rooting for spot, the best that can be said about 2016 core is that it will be better than the paltry 1% core growth now projected for this year. Without the heavy political spending, the survey says, the 2015 total will be down 7.5%.
That's worse than expected. Last year's TVNewsCheck annual forecast for 2015 had total spot sales falling 6.3%, with core rising 2.4%.
Hopes are sky high for political next year. “2012 was the largest year ever for political spend, and it looks like we’re going to be near that level for 2016,” says Leo MacCourtney, president of Katz Television Group. “How the super PACs play out, and how the candidates get funded between now and the middle of next year, will be key.”
“There’s documented evidence of groups being charged three times as much already. And we’ve already got groups offering to pay seven or eight times as much as what candidates are paying,” Wilner adds.
CMAG puts total political advertising on TV next year at $4.4 billion, $3.3 billion of which should flow to spot, $800 million to local cable and $300 million to networks. In comparison, the total kitty for TV in 2012 was $3.8 billion, with $3.2 billion going to spot and $600 million to local cable.
But there’s a larger element of uncertainty about CMAG's forecast than usual because of so many unknowns, Wilner says. For example: will Super PACs supporting Hillary Clinton grow in funding to rival Republican PACs? How many of the myriad Republican nominees will fight to the bitter end? Will there be candidates who choose to run as independents?
And digital will be a bigger factor this time around, says Brian Wieser, senior research analyst for Pivotal Research Group. “TV is still the dominant tool that most politicians will use. But there’s some wild cards in terms of how much issue money is out there and whether clever tactics will end up getting a lot of attention, and possibly money too.”
The experts give multiple reasons for core's weak performance year after year. “Local TV is suffering from the same thing that the rest of TV is suffering from — i.e., ratings that keep going down, and it seems at an accelerating rate,” says Vincent Letang, EVP and director of global forecasting for MagnaGlobal. “Depending on the target [demo], they’re down 5% to 12% compared with 12 months ago.”
Marci Ryvicker, the lead media analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, seconds Letang. "People are watching less TV than in the past, and broadcasters don’t get paid for time-shifted viewing. The change in consumer habits is changing the entire TV ecosystem. The stations are less impacted, but they are not immune.”
“Overall, I believe long-term broadcast television stations are not a growth business,” says Jack Myers, chairman of Myers Business Report. While stations are getting into the programmatic space, they’re not doing it fast enough, he says. “It’s keeping them out of the mainstream of where the business is headed."
Mark Fratrik, SVP and chief economist at BIA/Kelsey, says TV stations are not keeping up in helping advertisers target consumers. “There’s a challenge for broadcasters in not having the level of data that other media may have about their audiences. On the other hand, if you decide you want to target geographically with cable or digital, you might also think about including TV because of the broad reach of the stations.”
Part of core's difficulty is auto, the No. 1 category accounting for about 25% of stations' spot revenue.
Auto ad spending on spot has not been keeping pace with auto sales as it has in the past. The survey respondents had the category flat this year, but up 2% or 3% next year.
The auto malaise is apparently not universal. Keith Bowen, Tribune Media’s chief revenue officer, says Tribune's auto business is currently "healthy," particularly among local dealers and dealer associations.
"As for next year, we will need to wait to see what happens," he says. "Auto demand is driven by many factors including job and income growth, interest rates and the stock market."
So say 14 station groups and industry analysts surveyed by TVNewsCheck’s annual Spot TV forecast.
For those rooting for spot, the best that can be said about 2016 core is that it will be better than the paltry 1% core growth now projected for this year. Without the heavy political spending, the survey says, the 2015 total will be down 7.5%.
That's worse than expected. Last year's TVNewsCheck annual forecast for 2015 had total spot sales falling 6.3%, with core rising 2.4%.
Hopes are sky high for political next year. “2012 was the largest year ever for political spend, and it looks like we’re going to be near that level for 2016,” says Leo MacCourtney, president of Katz Television Group. “How the super PACs play out, and how the candidates get funded between now and the middle of next year, will be key.”
It’s not just the sheer number of candidates, and the fact that there is no presidential incumbent that makes the 2016 election outstanding. “Outside groups — Super PACs and others — are paying rates that are exponentially higher than what candidates are paying,” says Elizabeth Wilner, SVP of political advertising for Kantar Media's political unit CMAG.
CMAG puts total political advertising on TV next year at $4.4 billion, $3.3 billion of which should flow to spot, $800 million to local cable and $300 million to networks. In comparison, the total kitty for TV in 2012 was $3.8 billion, with $3.2 billion going to spot and $600 million to local cable.
But there’s a larger element of uncertainty about CMAG's forecast than usual because of so many unknowns, Wilner says. For example: will Super PACs supporting Hillary Clinton grow in funding to rival Republican PACs? How many of the myriad Republican nominees will fight to the bitter end? Will there be candidates who choose to run as independents?
And digital will be a bigger factor this time around, says Brian Wieser, senior research analyst for Pivotal Research Group. “TV is still the dominant tool that most politicians will use. But there’s some wild cards in terms of how much issue money is out there and whether clever tactics will end up getting a lot of attention, and possibly money too.”
The experts give multiple reasons for core's weak performance year after year. “Local TV is suffering from the same thing that the rest of TV is suffering from — i.e., ratings that keep going down, and it seems at an accelerating rate,” says Vincent Letang, EVP and director of global forecasting for MagnaGlobal. “Depending on the target [demo], they’re down 5% to 12% compared with 12 months ago.”
Marci Ryvicker, the lead media analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, seconds Letang. "People are watching less TV than in the past, and broadcasters don’t get paid for time-shifted viewing. The change in consumer habits is changing the entire TV ecosystem. The stations are less impacted, but they are not immune.”
“Overall, I believe long-term broadcast television stations are not a growth business,” says Jack Myers, chairman of Myers Business Report. While stations are getting into the programmatic space, they’re not doing it fast enough, he says. “It’s keeping them out of the mainstream of where the business is headed."
Mark Fratrik, SVP and chief economist at BIA/Kelsey, says TV stations are not keeping up in helping advertisers target consumers. “There’s a challenge for broadcasters in not having the level of data that other media may have about their audiences. On the other hand, if you decide you want to target geographically with cable or digital, you might also think about including TV because of the broad reach of the stations.”
Part of core's difficulty is auto, the No. 1 category accounting for about 25% of stations' spot revenue.
Auto ad spending on spot has not been keeping pace with auto sales as it has in the past. The survey respondents had the category flat this year, but up 2% or 3% next year.
The auto malaise is apparently not universal. Keith Bowen, Tribune Media’s chief revenue officer, says Tribune's auto business is currently "healthy," particularly among local dealers and dealer associations.
"As for next year, we will need to wait to see what happens," he says. "Auto demand is driven by many factors including job and income growth, interest rates and the stock market."
Keeping core in positive territory this year and next will be fast food/casual, furniture, telecommunications and finance, broadcasters and analysts say.
“We’ve all read about McDonalds’ challenges, but the overall category is very strong,” says Wayne Freedman, VP of sales for Raycom Media. “A stronger economy and lower gasoline prices has resulted in more money in consumers’ pockets, and they’re using that money for entertainment and eating out more. It’s not just QSR that is benefitting. So is the casual dining category, including restaurants like Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback and Longhorn.”
Within retail, “the furniture category has been strong and getting stronger all year. Continued low interest rates and the improved housing market has led to consumers restarting home improvement projects that may have been put off. We’re seeing strength in other retail categories like electronics and sporting goods, as well,” says Freedman.
Freedman noted a new report from e-Marketer that projects that holiday spending will be up 5.7% this year, the best annual gain since 2011.
Telecommunications, one of spot’s firepower categories in recent years, suffered from lower advertising commitments in 2015 — first because Time Warner Cable and Comcast were waiting for a regulatory green light. When the deal finally fell apart, money from those two companies was freed up for spot buys. But there was another lag while AT&T completed its acquisition of DirecTV in July.
“We could see increased competition in the telco/wireless business — promotions around AT&T and DirecTV and some of the things happening with Sprint and T-Mobile. There’s fierce competition within that marketplace,” says Justin Nielson, a senior research analyst for SNL Kagan.
Within the finance category, the insurance has been "crazy good,” says one TV executive. A big factor in that is the move by Aflac from network to spot advertising.
And there is also hope for improvement among the banks. “But a lot of that’s driven by expectations for the GDP, which we expect to be 2% to 3% in 2015 and 3% to 3.5% in 2016,” says Carl Salas, a VP and senior credit officer for Moody’s Investor Service.
“We’ve all read about McDonalds’ challenges, but the overall category is very strong,” says Wayne Freedman, VP of sales for Raycom Media. “A stronger economy and lower gasoline prices has resulted in more money in consumers’ pockets, and they’re using that money for entertainment and eating out more. It’s not just QSR that is benefitting. So is the casual dining category, including restaurants like Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback and Longhorn.”
Freedman noted a new report from e-Marketer that projects that holiday spending will be up 5.7% this year, the best annual gain since 2011.
Telecommunications, one of spot’s firepower categories in recent years, suffered from lower advertising commitments in 2015 — first because Time Warner Cable and Comcast were waiting for a regulatory green light. When the deal finally fell apart, money from those two companies was freed up for spot buys. But there was another lag while AT&T completed its acquisition of DirecTV in July.
“We could see increased competition in the telco/wireless business — promotions around AT&T and DirecTV and some of the things happening with Sprint and T-Mobile. There’s fierce competition within that marketplace,” says Justin Nielson, a senior research analyst for SNL Kagan.
And there is also hope for improvement among the banks. “But a lot of that’s driven by expectations for the GDP, which we expect to be 2% to 3% in 2015 and 3% to 3.5% in 2016,” says Carl Salas, a VP and senior credit officer for Moody’s Investor Service.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Global Ad Spending Shifts: Mobile Up, Newspapers Down.
INSIDERADIO
September, 15, 2015
As the advertising domain continues to endure an ongoing evolution, a just-released study from ZenithOptimedia reveals that next year, mobile advertising will overtake newspapers for the first time. “Mobile advertising remains the driving force behind the growth of the entire advertising market, contributing 83% of all new ad dollars between 2014 and 2017,” the agency says.
ZenithOptimedia’s Advertising Expenditure Forecast says that in 2016, advertising via mobile will rank as the third-largest advertising medium, with 12.4% of the global adspend, behind television and desktop Internet.
Mobile advertising will grow 38% in 2016 to $71 billion, while newspaper advertising will shrink 4%
to $68 billion, or 11.9% of the total spend. “Print adspend continues to decline across most of the
world, as it has done since 2008,” ZenithOptimedia says. “We predict newspaper adspend will shrink an average of 4.9% a year through to 2017, while magazine advertising will shrink by 3.2% a year.” Their combined share of global adspend has fallen from 39.4% in 2007 to 19.6% in 2015, with an expected drop to 16.7% by 2017. The picture isn’t a lot prettier for television.
By 2018, Internet advertising will trump TV around the world. In all, global advertising is on course to grow 4% by the end of 2015, the study says—although that forecast is down 0.2 percentage points since June, due to “broad-based deceleration across the world,” with Brazil and Russia in recession, and “China slowing down. We expect Mature Markets North America, Western Europe and Japan to contribute more to global adspend growth this year than Rising Markets, for the first time since 2006.”
Radio Still Tops For Discovering Tunes. While online streaming services may be gaining in popularity, a new study from Nielsen Music reinforces the fact that radio remains tops for discovering tunes. According to the fourth-annual Music 360 2015 report, 61% of U.S. music listeners say they discover new music from terrestrial or satellite radio. This represents a 7% increase
over last year. In all, 91% of the U.S. population listens to an average of more than 24 hours of music each week, the study says. “Whether we’re in the car, at work, working out or surfing the web, we love listening to music,” Nielsen notes.
Of the total that regularly listens to music, 75% tune in online, while 44% are now accessing music on smartphones, up 7% from last year.
Streaming music continues to grow exponentially: While Americans streamed more than 164 billion on-demand tracks across audio/video platforms in 2014, they streamed 135 billion in the first half of 2015 alone. That is a 90% increase from the same period last year. Word of mouth is also important for discovery, particularly among teens: 65% say they find new music through family and friends, well above the average of 45% among all ages that rely on word of mouth. Additionally, 12% say that live events introduce them to new music.
Inside Story: NFL Delivers Power Sweep For Radio. In a perennially competitive
media industry, radio stations are always hungry for marquee programming to attract
listeners and advertisers—the more constant and engaged the better. Thankfully, a
local NFL franchise can deliver on both sides of the proverbial ball, and it remains
wildly coveted, with its undeniable record of success. “The NFL is a giant marketing
machine for a station, from programming to promotion to sales,” says sports and media
consultant David Pearlman, of Pearlman Advisors. On average, NFL football delivers
larger audiences than any other pro sport, and its fans are passionate, committed and
hungry for information. “That sets a football broadcast apart from regular programming
on a radio station at any time,” says Bob Snyder, Nielsen’s director of sports audio. It’s
the kind of power—and opportunity—available from all 32 NFL teams. In Pittsburgh,
during the 2014-15 season, Steelers games delivered a whopping 56.4 average-
quarter-hour share among men 25-54, the highest in the league. Six teams attracted
40-plus in-game shares in that same demo. Overall, in Chicago, Bears games attracted
an average in-game cume audience of 481,300 listeners p 6+, while New York Giants
games averaged 397,200. Few events, other than breaking news or weather, can rival
those numbers. “The NFL is currency in its markets,” says Cumulus Media’s Bruce
Gilbert, SVP of sports. “People talk about the weather and how is our team. We want to
be in the middle of those conversations.”
NFL Value Goes Beyond Sunday For Radio. Thirty years after KODA, Houston
became the first FM station to air NFL games, the majority of flagship pro football
stations are now FM outlets. Many are sports talk, but some are music stations, and
they’ll break format on Sundays, treating games as tentpole events with the goal of
moving listeners to other days. CBS Radio-owned country “The Bull @100.3” KILT-FM,
Houston for instance, shares game-day broadcasts with sports talk sister “Sports Radio
610” KILT. On those days, it’s all about the X’s and O’s for KILT.
“The NFL provides FM stations with a built-in marketing tool and serves as a magnet to get ears to the station,” says Chris Oliviero, executive VP of programming for CBS Radio, which has NFL rights in nine markets “Then, it is up to the program directors to get them to stick around during the week.” Station managers say the NFL provides an invaluable promotional platform for weekday shows. “The goal is to try and recycle that audience,” says Brad Willis, program director for Cumulus-owned sports talk “104-5 The Zone” WGFX, Nashville, the Tennessee Titans’ local radio flagship. “We’re using every ID and position possible to point people back to the next day’s programming or the next appointment.”
Landing an NFL broadcast deal is no small feat. Rights fees are costly and the teams want multiplatform exposure. In many markets, competition for rights will drive up pricing to as high as millions per season. Some stations have maintained their team’s broadcast rights for decades, such as
iHeartMedia-owned “NewsRadio 850” KOA, Denver, which has broadcast Denver Broncos games for more than 40 years.
It’s a give and take—teams want exposure on multiple stations, broader marketing and promotional efforts; stations want support with access, programming and events. “It is in everyone’s interest to drain every bit of power they can get out of the partnerships,” says Cumulus Media’s Bruce Gilbert.
Philly Stations Prep For Pope’s Visit. When Pope Francis comes to Philadelphia on Sept. 26-27, he brings with him blessings and some understandable municipal headaches. And the highly anticipated visit is making news for area radio stations, some of which are arranging for logistical solutions to report on the events. The pope’s East Coast tour brings him for a stretch to Center City Philadelphia, which will be cordoned off into security zones; major roadways and bridges will be shut down, including Interstate 76 and the Benjamin Franklin Bridge. Some broadcasters find themselves inside security perimeters, including several CBS Radio outlets, and execs are scrambling to adjust travel plans and staffing. Of course, these aren’t bad problems to have, considering the import of the story. At CBS-owned news powerhouse KYW (1060), station managers started a year ago to plan coverage and operations. Major news events such as this are a bonanza for news/talk stations, says KYW station manager Steve Butler. “There are so many stories to tell and we are usually a go-to source for travel and traffic information,” he says. In July, KYW launched a dedicated HD sidechannel, dubbed
“The PopeCast,” devoted to all-things papal on 96.5 FM-HD3 and live streams online. Already, the channel has aired more than 100 stories, including news updates and lighter features, such as a story on the new Hyundai-built vehicle the Pope rides in, and a toaster that emblazons the Pope’s image onto bread.
September, 15, 2015
As the advertising domain continues to endure an ongoing evolution, a just-released study from ZenithOptimedia reveals that next year, mobile advertising will overtake newspapers for the first time. “Mobile advertising remains the driving force behind the growth of the entire advertising market, contributing 83% of all new ad dollars between 2014 and 2017,” the agency says.
ZenithOptimedia’s Advertising Expenditure Forecast says that in 2016, advertising via mobile will rank as the third-largest advertising medium, with 12.4% of the global adspend, behind television and desktop Internet.
Mobile advertising will grow 38% in 2016 to $71 billion, while newspaper advertising will shrink 4%
to $68 billion, or 11.9% of the total spend. “Print adspend continues to decline across most of the
world, as it has done since 2008,” ZenithOptimedia says. “We predict newspaper adspend will shrink an average of 4.9% a year through to 2017, while magazine advertising will shrink by 3.2% a year.” Their combined share of global adspend has fallen from 39.4% in 2007 to 19.6% in 2015, with an expected drop to 16.7% by 2017. The picture isn’t a lot prettier for television.
By 2018, Internet advertising will trump TV around the world. In all, global advertising is on course to grow 4% by the end of 2015, the study says—although that forecast is down 0.2 percentage points since June, due to “broad-based deceleration across the world,” with Brazil and Russia in recession, and “China slowing down. We expect Mature Markets North America, Western Europe and Japan to contribute more to global adspend growth this year than Rising Markets, for the first time since 2006.”
Radio Still Tops For Discovering Tunes. While online streaming services may be gaining in popularity, a new study from Nielsen Music reinforces the fact that radio remains tops for discovering tunes. According to the fourth-annual Music 360 2015 report, 61% of U.S. music listeners say they discover new music from terrestrial or satellite radio. This represents a 7% increase
over last year. In all, 91% of the U.S. population listens to an average of more than 24 hours of music each week, the study says. “Whether we’re in the car, at work, working out or surfing the web, we love listening to music,” Nielsen notes.
Of the total that regularly listens to music, 75% tune in online, while 44% are now accessing music on smartphones, up 7% from last year.
Streaming music continues to grow exponentially: While Americans streamed more than 164 billion on-demand tracks across audio/video platforms in 2014, they streamed 135 billion in the first half of 2015 alone. That is a 90% increase from the same period last year. Word of mouth is also important for discovery, particularly among teens: 65% say they find new music through family and friends, well above the average of 45% among all ages that rely on word of mouth. Additionally, 12% say that live events introduce them to new music.
Inside Story: NFL Delivers Power Sweep For Radio. In a perennially competitive
media industry, radio stations are always hungry for marquee programming to attract
listeners and advertisers—the more constant and engaged the better. Thankfully, a
local NFL franchise can deliver on both sides of the proverbial ball, and it remains
wildly coveted, with its undeniable record of success. “The NFL is a giant marketing
machine for a station, from programming to promotion to sales,” says sports and media
consultant David Pearlman, of Pearlman Advisors. On average, NFL football delivers
larger audiences than any other pro sport, and its fans are passionate, committed and
hungry for information. “That sets a football broadcast apart from regular programming
on a radio station at any time,” says Bob Snyder, Nielsen’s director of sports audio. It’s
the kind of power—and opportunity—available from all 32 NFL teams. In Pittsburgh,
during the 2014-15 season, Steelers games delivered a whopping 56.4 average-
quarter-hour share among men 25-54, the highest in the league. Six teams attracted
40-plus in-game shares in that same demo. Overall, in Chicago, Bears games attracted
an average in-game cume audience of 481,300 listeners p 6+, while New York Giants
games averaged 397,200. Few events, other than breaking news or weather, can rival
those numbers. “The NFL is currency in its markets,” says Cumulus Media’s Bruce
Gilbert, SVP of sports. “People talk about the weather and how is our team. We want to
be in the middle of those conversations.”
NFL Value Goes Beyond Sunday For Radio. Thirty years after KODA, Houston
became the first FM station to air NFL games, the majority of flagship pro football
stations are now FM outlets. Many are sports talk, but some are music stations, and
they’ll break format on Sundays, treating games as tentpole events with the goal of
moving listeners to other days. CBS Radio-owned country “The Bull @100.3” KILT-FM,
Houston for instance, shares game-day broadcasts with sports talk sister “Sports Radio
610” KILT. On those days, it’s all about the X’s and O’s for KILT.
“The NFL provides FM stations with a built-in marketing tool and serves as a magnet to get ears to the station,” says Chris Oliviero, executive VP of programming for CBS Radio, which has NFL rights in nine markets “Then, it is up to the program directors to get them to stick around during the week.” Station managers say the NFL provides an invaluable promotional platform for weekday shows. “The goal is to try and recycle that audience,” says Brad Willis, program director for Cumulus-owned sports talk “104-5 The Zone” WGFX, Nashville, the Tennessee Titans’ local radio flagship. “We’re using every ID and position possible to point people back to the next day’s programming or the next appointment.”
Landing an NFL broadcast deal is no small feat. Rights fees are costly and the teams want multiplatform exposure. In many markets, competition for rights will drive up pricing to as high as millions per season. Some stations have maintained their team’s broadcast rights for decades, such as
iHeartMedia-owned “NewsRadio 850” KOA, Denver, which has broadcast Denver Broncos games for more than 40 years.
It’s a give and take—teams want exposure on multiple stations, broader marketing and promotional efforts; stations want support with access, programming and events. “It is in everyone’s interest to drain every bit of power they can get out of the partnerships,” says Cumulus Media’s Bruce Gilbert.
Philly Stations Prep For Pope’s Visit. When Pope Francis comes to Philadelphia on Sept. 26-27, he brings with him blessings and some understandable municipal headaches. And the highly anticipated visit is making news for area radio stations, some of which are arranging for logistical solutions to report on the events. The pope’s East Coast tour brings him for a stretch to Center City Philadelphia, which will be cordoned off into security zones; major roadways and bridges will be shut down, including Interstate 76 and the Benjamin Franklin Bridge. Some broadcasters find themselves inside security perimeters, including several CBS Radio outlets, and execs are scrambling to adjust travel plans and staffing. Of course, these aren’t bad problems to have, considering the import of the story. At CBS-owned news powerhouse KYW (1060), station managers started a year ago to plan coverage and operations. Major news events such as this are a bonanza for news/talk stations, says KYW station manager Steve Butler. “There are so many stories to tell and we are usually a go-to source for travel and traffic information,” he says. In July, KYW launched a dedicated HD sidechannel, dubbed
“The PopeCast,” devoted to all-things papal on 96.5 FM-HD3 and live streams online. Already, the channel has aired more than 100 stories, including news updates and lighter features, such as a story on the new Hyundai-built vehicle the Pope rides in, and a toaster that emblazons the Pope’s image onto bread.
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