Upfront Blues: Broadcast, Cable TV Ad Rev Forecast To Sink 6%

MediaDailyNews

• by Wayne Friedman, 10 hours ago
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Television's upfront market will take a turn backwards this season.

A new estimate says that with most of the deal-making completed, total television upfront prime-time advertising revenue for broadcast and cable networks will sink 6% to $18.1 billion from the $19.3 billion tally in 2013, per Media Dynamics.

Broadcast upfront revenues are estimated to drop 7.7% to $8.45 billion from the $9.15 billion level in 2013. Cable TV upfront revenues look to retreat 4.7% to $9.68 billion from $10.16 billion.

While broadcast networks have seen steady declines for the last two upfront selling periods, this season will be the first decline for cable since it dropped to $6.92 billion in the 2009 upfront period (for the 2009-2010 season) from its $7.6 billion level in 2008 (the 2008-2009 period).

In 2009, the TV ad revenue declines were part of the overall U.S. economic collapse that hit all businesses during the Great Recession in 2009. In the midst of the recessionary period in 2009, total TV upfront revenues were down sharply -- off 14% -- with the cost per thousand viewers down 4%.

Some of that upfront market was also affected to a major degree by TV networks withholding much more inventory that year for sale in the following scatter markets -- in the hopes the economy would improve.

Dr Philip Jay LeNoble, of Executive Decision Systems, Inc. indicates local-direct revenue can be a boon from those stations frozen out of political due to their market size. For those markets who will reap the benefits of a large political season come fall. it will be important not to pre-empt local clients who are depending on the holiday season to make their year as they will be more difficult to to regain. While some managers say their local clients understand...they are being fooled as local direct clients may find other new media more attractive which as a result may further impact core revenue for the year and the beginning of 2015.

Nielsen Exec: Don't Expect to Be Impressed by Impact of Mobile TV Ratings

ADWEEK

It all starts tracking viewing on devices By T.L. Stanley

• July 9, 2014, 12:51 PM EDT
• Television

Photo: Getty Images

Nielsen has declared itself "open for business" in terms of tracking TV viewing on smartphones, tablets and other electronic gadgets. But don’t expect those numbers, which will be available for the first time with the new fall broadcast season, to be impressive, statistically speaking.

"It will start small and build gradually," Cheryl Idell, Nielsen’s evp of U.S. media, said at the semi-annual Television Critics Association conference kickoff in Beverly Hills. “We won’t see dramatic changes in ratings with this data added in.”

That may not be the big splash the advertising community has been hoping for.

Claire Browne, vp, director of media research at ad agency RPA in Los Angeles, describedNielsen as "behind the curve" and "playing catch-up" on measuring mobile viewing, a project that’s been in the works for years. "They have to do this to remain relevant," she said. "Consumer behavior is running so far ahead of the research."

Nielsen first announced the long-gestating service last fall, promising TV networks a better cross-platform gauge of total viewers so they can set their ad rates accordingly. Advertisers are also clamoring for the data so they can strike the best media buying deals and keep up with the on-the-go consumer who’s increasingly turning to mobile devices for entertainment. 

The mobile data will come via software meters that have been embedded into media companies’ "watch anywhere" apps, Internet browsers and mobile devices themselves, Idell said.

Those meters will identify pieces of content—an episode of Scandal or American Idol, for instance—and report back on when and how those were watched, whether through a smartphone, iPad video app or other device. Privacy encryption will reveal demographic but not personal tidbits about the viewer, who may opt out of the research.

Nielsen will add the mobile viewing data to a TV show’s overall ratings to give a more accurate picture of how many people across the U.S. watched an episode of The Walking Dead or a season of CSI. That applies only to mobile viewers, though, who watched the same version that aired on TV, the so-called linear version of the show that contained the same embedded advertising. That’s the same criteria that Nielsen uses for counting time-shifted viewing three or seven days after initial airing. (Ad-free streaming services like Netflix will not be included nor will platforms like Hulu where ads are different than on TV).

It’s a start, RPA’s Browne said, because "usage numbers are critical," but she wishes Nielsen, either alone or in collaboration with other services, would step it up. "We all want credible data, and it’ll be disappointing if this doesn’t turn out to be it," she said.

Surge In 2016 Online Political Ad Spend Seen

NETNEWSCHECK

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Total online political ad spending is projected to soar to almost a billion dollars in 2016 U.S. political races that are expected to generate more than $12 billion for all contests — almost $51 for every qualified voter — according to a report released today by Borrell Associates. Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D. of Littleton, CO says that TV and radio station management should endeavor to keep local clients happy during business spike periods and not depend on political revenue to supersede local business as it may imperil future local direct revenue streams.    

By Michael Depp

June 30, 2014 6:34 AM EDT

Total online political ad spending is projected to soar to almost a billion dollars in 2016 U.S. political races that are expected to generate more than $12 billion for all contests — almost $51 for every qualified voter — according to a report released today by Borrell Associates.
The expected dramatic growth of online ad spending — almost 500% from 2012 — is tracked and explained in Political Advertising Outlook: 2014 and Beyond.

Digital media still would account for less than 8% of all political advertising, the report says, but the way political advertising money is spent will change dramatically in 2016, affecting every level of spending – from very local to presidential runs.Kip Cassino, Borrell EVP and author of the report, says that “if you look at previous years, [political online ad spending] has jumped levels of magnitude through every cycle.
“The reason is because people are growing more used to the capabilities of online in the campaign,” Cassino says. “Until now, only a few campaigns have made any real inventive use of online in their marketing, and one of them was the Obama campaign.”
The Obama campaign’s efficacy is “beginning to rub off,” he notes.

The tenfold explosion in online since 2010 is one of three trends identified in Borrell’s report on political ad spending based on the four-year election cycle. The other two are the substantial growth of cable and the continued loss of broadcast TV’s share.

Cable and online are the only media choices projected to gain share in political ad spending this year, the report says, with two factors underpinning the cable growth:

• Price as local and state-centric campaigns try to get more for their money by using cheaper cable alternatives to broadcast, aided by the rise in cable viewership, especially during prime time
• Cable’s ability to target specific demographic population segments through its variety of programming is enormous

“This is an alarm bell ringing,” Cassino says of what the report finds with respect to broadcast TV.
Most of the digital activity at this point in the election cycle now, the report says, is expected to continue to be done by the digital marketing managers working within the campaigns, managing social media and email communications directly with the electorate.

But, drilling down into how the dollars will be spent in online advertising, the report says, “This year, political ads on social media will capture as much as half of what’s spent, according to Michael Bassik, one of the nation’s foremost experts on digital political advertising and president of global digital operations for MDC Partners in New York City.”
                                                
Cassino says advertising is now moving beyond search.
“Now we’re getting into actually targeting people by their affinities, using social and targeted display,” he said. “The other catalyst that is really driving this is the availability of mobile devices and the ability to get to votes through that device.”

Cassino sees more than half of the dollars going to mobile.
Who will be the winners?
“Facebook has been very aggressive about hiring staff that know how to talk to the politicians and use Facebook in campaign efforts,” Cassino notes. “Certainly for video, you have to look at YouTube.”
And, what should local media glean from this report?

“They had better be able to offer online and specifically mobile and video alternatives to what they’ve been offering. It’s not just going to be TV and posters anymore,” he says.

Forecast: This is the year mobile ads explode

Medialife

Spending will soar by 83 percent, to $17.73 billion

By Bill Cromwell

July 8, 2014

Call 2014 the year of mobile advertising.

It’s set to take off in a major way over the coming months, and by year’s end it will be the No. 3 form of advertising, surpassing print, radio and out of home.

That’s pretty impressive for a format that did not even exist a few years ago.

That prediction comes from eMarketer, the online advertising tracking firm, which predicts that mobile ad spending in the U.S. will shoot up by 83 percent this year, to $17.73 billion.

“By the end of this year, mobile will represent nearly 10 percent of all media ad spending, surpassing newspapers, magazines and radio for the first time to become the third-largest individual advertising venue, only trailing TV and desktops/laptops,” says the report.

Smartphones and tablets are reaching a critical mass, and the amount of time spent surfing the web on mobile devices is beginning to outpace desktop time.

This will lead to a huge shift in ad dollars over the next few years, notes the report.

Spending on mobile will soar another 50 percent next year, to $26.59 billion, compared to $32.01 billion for desktop advertising.

By 2016, mobile will be well ahead of desktop, with $37.49 billion to desktop’s $29 billion.

And by 2018, spending on mobile will be $58.33 billion, up from just $4.36 billion last year. At that point, nearly three-quarters of all digital spending will be mobile.

The spike in mobile advertising will spark a very healthy 2014 for the media economy. In fact, 2014 will see the biggest year-to-year spending jump in a decade.

EMarketer predicts ad spending will increase by 5.3 percent, the best growth since 2004, when spending bumped up 6.7 percent. It’s also the first time in a decade that spending growth has bettered 5 percent. Total spending will hit $180.12 billion.

In addition to mobile, gains will be driven by television, which is getting a boost from the Winter Olympics and political spending.

TV ad dollars will be up 3.3 percent, representing a $2.19 billion increase.

EMarketer remains fairly bullish on ad spending going forward, too. It predicts an increase of 5.1 percent next year, despite the absence of political and Olympic spending, and growth of 5.6 percent in 2016, when the next presidential election will take place, as well as the next Summer Games.

Nielsen Exec: Don't Expect to Be Impressed by Impact of Mobile TV Ratings

ADWEEK

Starts tracking viewing on devices By T.L. Stanley

• July 9, 2014, 12:51 PM EDT
• Television

Nielsen has declared itself "open for business" in terms of tracking TV viewing on smartphones, tablets and other electronic gadgets. But don’t expect those numbers, which will be available for the first time with the new fall broadcast season, to be impressive, statistically speaking.

"It will start small and build gradually," Cheryl Idell, Nielsen’s evp of U.S. media, said at the semi-annual Television Critics Association conference kickoff in Beverly Hills. “We won’t see dramatic changes in ratings with this data added in.”

That may not be the big splash the advertising community has been hoping for.

Claire Browne, vp, director of media research at ad agency RPA in Los Angeles, describedNielsen as "behind the curve" and "playing catch-up" on measuring mobile viewing, a project that’s been in the works for years. "They have to do this to remain relevant," she said. "Consumer behavior is running so far ahead of the research."

Nielsen first announced the long-gestating service last fall, promising TV networks a better cross-platform gauge of total viewers so they can set their ad rates accordingly. Advertisers are also clamoring for the data so they can strike the best media buying deals and keep up with the on-the-go consumer who’s increasingly turning to mobile devices for entertainment. 

The mobile data will come via software meters that have been embedded into media companies’ "watch anywhere" apps, Internet browsers and mobile devices themselves, Idell said.

Those meters will identify pieces of content—an episode of Scandal or American Idol, for instance—and report back on when and how those were watched, whether through a smartphone, iPad video app or other device. Privacy encryption will reveal demographic but not personal tidbits about the viewer, who may opt out of the research.

Nielsen will add the mobile viewing data to a TV show’s overall ratings to give a more accurate picture of how many people across the U.S. watched an episode of The Walking Dead or a season of CSI. That applies only to mobile viewers, though, who watched the same version that aired on TV, the so-called linear version of the show that contained the same embedded advertising. That’s the same criteria that Nielsen uses for counting time-shifted viewing three or seven days after initial airing. (Ad-free streaming services like Netflix will not be included nor will platforms like Hulu where ads are different than on TV).

It’s a start, RPA’s Browne said, because "usage numbers are critical," but she wishes Nielsen, either alone or in collaboration with other services, would step it up. "We all want credible data, and it’ll be disappointing if this doesn’t turn out to be it," she said.

High Impact Premium Ads Becoming Key To Moving Male Audiences' Decisions

By Bryan Robb Thursday, July 10, 2014

Men these days spend more time than their Dads ever did helping out at home and watching the kids, according to numerous studies. But that doesn’t mean that their interest in shiny new toys and flashy gadgets is on the wane. Quite the contrary!  Interest in typically male-dominated areas such as power tools, motor vehicles and gadgets is alive and well. And as it turns out, the way to a man’s heart starts with flashy digital ads, which have proven to be extremely impactful and effective for advertisers trying to reach this often overlooked decision-maker.  I see it every day here at work. We help marketers of aftermarket products reach male decision makers about these “want-to-have” items that make a vehicle go faster, look better or make it safer. Many of our smaller advertisers compete for attention with Fortune 100 brands on most pages where their ads run, which can make things very difficult for them. But we’re seeing that high impact, custom premium ads (i.e., large, eye-grabbing page takeovers, skins, peels, videos, IAB Rising Starts, etc.) really stand out with men, who sometimes just need a little help to envision what these products can do for them.  According to a recent study by interactive TV advertising company Brightline, men are especially receptive to interactive ads that include contests or components like simple games, or ads featuring video content. Almost half of men are willing to stay on a website longer if product videos are made available to them, for example, and 35% of young males like ads that allow them to play some sort of game. One of the major energy drink companies put us to the test. We ran targeted rich-media expandable ads alongside side skins that also featured an embedded video. Historically, this could only be done manually as one-offs. The side skins received eight times the interaction from users versus the expandable rich media ads.  As you can see, a little “wow factor” goes a long way when it comes to reaching male audiences. Now high impact, custom premium ads can even be delivered programmatically in real-time, regardless of the publisher channel, aligning perfectly with how brand marketers are already advertising within other digital channels. Using audience data and insights in real-time to effectively target ads that will engage men helps to achieve a higher level of interest in smaller advertisers’ content, putting them on par with the look and feel of what larger brands are doing without having to break the bank. While targeting men will always play second fiddle to the feeding frenzy you see with brands trying to reach moms, there is no reason why brands of all shapes and sizes that need to convert male audiences should ever fall short in offering them content that will catch their eye. By keeping close tabs on the type of high impact, custom premium ads that engage and convert male purchasers at a high rate, male-focused marketers of all sizes can keep them engaged. Thought it would be helpful to add an essay on creative as it is what helps drive traffic. Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Generational Social Media Behaviors

Research Brief

Monday June 30, 2014

by Jack Loechner, Yesterday, 10:25 AM

According to a new report from Fizziology, prepared by BaM, Handley and Jennette, marketers are still struggling with how to communicate with their audiences in social media in a way that they don’t with more traditional media. The numbers prove that each generation is represented in social media in mass. Now it’s about understanding how they use social, what their habits are and how to speak to them in a way that is meaningful, inspires action, and authentic.

The report outlines social media behaviors, tone and triggers of Millennials, Generation X and Baby Boomers, so marketers can understand how to effectively engage with target audiences. As social media matures as an element of a marketing campaign, so should the sophistication of targeting and message, says the report.

The social media behaviors of Millennials vs. GenX and Boomers: Born after 1981, most ethnically diverse generation ever; digital natives; politically and socially liberal; not very religious; educated but burdened with college debt; slow to marry and have children; optimistic about the future…

• Millennials express complaints (primarily about school, relationships and general pet peeves) almost 2x more than Gen X and 3x more than Boomers
• Millennials are also more likely to interact with celebrities and talk about dating/relationships, music and sports
• Although the youngest, Millennials are most likely to be nostalgic on social media, they religiously post photos, talk about childhood TV shows and movies they grew up watching, and often reminisce about old fashion trends
• Millennials tweet an average of 8x a day, which is slightly more than Gen X and significantly less than Boomers
• Millennials talk about music significantly more than the other generations. Hip-hop dominates their music conversation, but they also often talk about musicians that rose to prominence in the 90s and early 2000s
• Millennials don’t often share news articles from traditional media outlets, but instead share BuzzFeed lists and quiz results. In fact, 21% of all articles shared by Millennials came from Buzzfeed
• Sports-loving Millennials hashtag vote in promotions like the Face of MLB. They live-tweet during NBA games and the Chicago Bulls are popular among this group. They use the appropriate hashtags to tweet during shows like Scandal, Teen Wolf, The Walking Dead and True Detective
• Millennials were interested in blockbusters like Gravity and Captain America, but they also spoke nostalgically about movies they watched in childhood like Land Before Time and What’s Eating Gilbert Grape
• While Millennials talk a lot about celebrities, music and sports, they don’t’ name-drop brands as much as Gen X and Boomers do

The social media behaviors of GenX, born 1965-1980, shows that they are a health-conscious group more likely to talk about nutrition and fitness than Millennials and Boomers. They are 75% more likely to talk about tech news and products/apps than Millennials and Boomers, and often share inspirational, positive messages and are advocates for brands that share the same outlook.

• Gen Xers tweet an average of 6x a day, which is slightly less than Millennials and significantly less than Boomers. They are children of the Reagan Revolution and the divorce Revolution; Distrustful of institutions and government; Economically conservative and Socially Liberal  
• Gen Xers use hashtags in political conversation (#WhySheRan), as well as to keep up with unfolding news stories (#MH370). They also enjoying watching TV socially, often using TV Tag to customize their social feeds during their favorite shows, which include dramas like House of Cards, Nashville and True Detective
• Gen Xers post more photos (22% of conversation) than Millennials and Boomers – including “Food porn,” photos of beer and liquor, snapshots taken while traveling, pics at concerts/events with friends
• This group is most likely to consume and share tech news. They enjoy using apps like Untappd, a social check-in network for beer aficionados. They also use apps like Uber, Spotify and Foursquare and follow the news around Bitcoin
• This generation grew up as fans of Morrissey, The Smiths and David Bowie and they continue to listen to those artists today. They also enjoy the folk sounds of artists like Milk Carton Kids, Norah Jones, Avett Brothers and Beck. Gen X parents took their kids to see The Lego Movie and Frozen.
• This segment will engage with their favorite brands on social. They appreciate brands with positive messaging and a strong social presence. They consume and share the most media (news clips, tech reviews, op-ed pieces, long reads, etc.) via their social networks. They are followers of outlets like NPR, Slate, Mashable and AV Club.

The social media behaviors of Boomers, born 1946-1964, shows that they are 3x more likely to talk about shopping than Gen X and Millennials, and also talk about family more than the other segments. They are significantly more likely to use social media to engage in brand promotions and giveaways than Gen X and Millennials.

Boomers frequently engage in lengthy Twitter chats, united by a corresponding hashtag, and “tweetups,” or in-person meetups planned via Twitter. They tweet an average of 15x a day, more than Millennials and Gen X combined.

Born during fertility spike post-WWII, ntil birth control pill came to market. Half or more have grown conservative with age despite participating in counterculture movements in the 60s. 10,000 boomers a day will turn 65 until 2030

Boomers were active tweeters during both the Oscars and NASCAR’s Daytona 500. They followed news updates regarding Duke Energy’s coal ash spill using a hashtag and expressed political opinions with hashtags (#P2). They use hashtags to jump into conversations, as well as to engage in brand promotions and giveaways (#DisneySide, #iPadGames, #Win)

• Boomers post less photos than Millennials and Gen X, but photos still make up 16% of their conversation
• TV Baby Boomers are hooked on reality series like the Real Housewives franchise and juicy dramas like Scandal. They are also likely to be fans of NASCAR, and were highly engaged during the Daytona 500
• They have wide-ranging musical tastes, but rock is the most popular genre. They enjoy everything from The Smiths to indie rock group, Pavement. They are also fans of country musicians like George Strait and Rodney Atkins
• Baby Boomers are partial to brands like Michael’s, Kraft and Frito-Lay that have a strong social media presence, feature DIY and recipe ideas and frequently engage their fans in giveaways and contests.

Summarizing, the report says that Boomers are considerably more talkative on social media than Millennials and Gen X. They frequently engage in long conversations and Twitter chats. Meanwhile, Gen X is the quietest of the three segments. Millennial and Gen X conversation peaked, while Boomer conversation rose sharply, on March 2^nd coinciding with the 86th Academy Awards.

Popular Social Topic Comparison
	Frequency in Conversion
Segment	Millennials	GenX	Boomers
Celebrities	15%	10%	8%
Complaint	9%	5%	3%
Dating	4%	1%	2%
Drinking	5%	5%	1%
Family	1%	4%	6%
Food	6%	9%	8%
Health	2%	5%	3%
Humor	20%	18%	14%
Inspirational	2%	7%	5%
Movies	5%	4%	6%
Music	14%	8%	4%
News	7%	9%	9%
Photos	19%	22%	16%
Politics	2%	7%	8%
Promotions	0%	1%	11%
Shopping	2%	2%	6%
Sports	13%	6%	6%
Tech	8%	14%	8%
Travel	4%	5%	1%
TV	13%	10%	12%
Video	3%	4%	2%
Source: Fizziology, June 2014