Nielsen’s Fullam—Total Audio Measure Needed Now

INSIDERADIO


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2015
The chairman of the Nielsen Audio Advisory Council says it’s time for Nielsen to make a decision about issues that have held up the rollout of its digital audio measurement service. "We can’t just stand still," Greater Media Philadelphia senior VP/market manager, John Fullam, told Inside Radio in an interview. At its Audio Client Conference in early December, Nielsen expressed its own frustration that the industry had yet to agree on several reporting issues, including how listening data should be reported when the stream carries a different ad load than the broadcast, and whether the components of the total audience should be broken out separately. "It would be great if everyone was pulling in the same direction and there was 100% agreement but that’s not going to happen," Fullam told Inside Radio. Nielsen announced at the conference that it was ready to make a decision if the industry couldn’t. "We’ve told the industry we can’t let this drag on indefinitely," Rob Kass, VP, product leadership, told attendees. "We’re ready to make a decision if need be." Now the Council, made up of Nielsen-subscribing broadcasters, seems to be saying this time has arrived. "We’re as anxious and as frustrated as anyone. This has dragged on longer than we would like," Fullam said. "We’ve got to get to a decision quickly and we’ve waited a reasonable period of time. I’m hoping Nielsen does make that decision because they’ve heard from the Council as to where a majority of broadcasters stand." Read more in "On The Inside With John Fullam" on p5.

Radio Rises Amid Overall Ad-Spend Drop. Buoyed by increased spending from automotive, restaurants and telco advertisers, local radio ad revenue jumped nearly 13% in Q3 2015 in 36 markets measured by Kantar Media. In contrast, overall ad spending on U.S. media fell 3.9% in Q3 to $36.4 billion. Of the 22 types of media monitored by Kantar, 16 reported lower ad spending last quarter. The losses can be attributed to several factors, including one less week in the National Football League this fall due to calendar scheduling, depriving media outlets of NFL-related ad revenue; and a lack of political spending in Q3 2015 compared to Q3 2014, when political advertising injected additional dollars in many media categories and markets. For the radio industry, Kantar says overall radio ad spending grew 5.1% in Q3, propped by strong local radio ad sales in Kantar-monitored markets. (Kantar’s markets represent about half the U.S. population and include 32 of the top 50 markets and 36 of the top 75.) National spot radio, however, slipped 3.9% last quarter, and network radio ad revenue declined 4.8%. Hispanic radio ad expenditures were flat compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date, radio categories are pacing similarly, with local radio up 9.6%; national spot down 2.5%; network radio off 5.2% and Hispanic radio up 3.3%. TV Falls—Television led a crew of media that experienced losses in the quarter;

 

The Internet of Things By The Numbers: The Year-End View

• by Chuck Martin, Yesterday, 9:11 PM
•                            

Around the growth of The Internet of Things there are percentages and then there are the raw numbers.
While the growth percentages are huge by just about any measure, the size of the actual numbers is even more staggering.

Earlier this week, I aggregated many of the percentages around the IoT, as I wrote about here (The Internet Of Things By The Percentages: The Year-End View).

The numbers around The Internet of Things continue to rise, even from a few months back when I did a quarterly tally (The Big Numbers in The Internet of Things).
I thought it now might be useful to take a look at the year-end numbers around The Internet of Things.

While many of the percentages around growth are huge, they hardly compare to the sheer numbers, either by units or dollars.

So here’s an updated look at the numbers around The Internet of Things, with the source of each at the end:

• $400 – Average price of a smartwatch. (IDC)
• 4 Million – Number of Apple watches shipped last quarter. (IDC)
• 5 Million – Number of Fitbit devices shipped last quarter. (IDC)
• 11 Million – Number of coupons to be delivered after being triggered by beacons this year. (Juniper Research)
• 21 Million – Number of wearable devices that shipped last quarter. (IDC)
• 50 Million – Number of smart gadgets that will be sold around the world this holiday season. (OTA)
• 73 Million – Number of connected wearables that shipped this year. (Berg Insight)
• 110 Million – Number of Beacons deployed by one company in Asia. (Sensoro)
• 174 Million – The number of smart homes globally this year. (Gartner)
• 220 Million – Connected cars on the road in 2020. (BI Intelligence)
• 228 Million – Connected wearables to be shipped in 2020. (Berg Insight)
• 339 Million – Number of smart homes next year. (Gartner)
• 1.2 Billion – The number of connected objects this year. (Gartner)
• 1.4 Billion – Number of smartphones being shipped this year. (IDC)
• 1.6 Billion – Number of coupons to be delivered after being triggered by beacons in 2020. (Juniper Research)
• 5 Billion – Number of connected devices by 2020. (BI Intelligence)
• 6 Billion – Number of smartphone phone subscription globally in 2021. (Ericsson)
• 9 Billion – Number of mobile phone subscription globally in 2021. (Ericsson)
• 21 Billion – Number of connected devices globally by 2020. (Gartner)
• 28 Billion – Number of connected devices globally in 2021. (Ericsson)
• 34 Billion – Number of devices connected to the Internet by 2020. (BI Intelligence)
• $44 Billion – Revenue generated from beacon-triggered messaging in 2020. (BI Intelligence)
• $546 Billion – Amount of consumer spending for connected objects next year. (Gartner)
• $669 Billion – Internet of Things spending globally this year. (IDC)
• $1 Trillion – Consumer spending on The Internet of Things in 2020. (Gartner)
• $1.3 Trillion – Global Internet of Things spending in four years. (IDC)
• $6 Trillion – Approximate amount that will be spent on IoT solutions over the next five years. (BI Intelligence)

While not all of the forecasts perfectly match, the upward directions all do.
If anyone has doubts about the coming scope of The Internet of Things revolution,  all they have to do is look at the numbers.

Mobile Millennials: 68% Take Phone Camera Capture Over Typing

by Chuck Martin Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015 Millennials not only get mobile, they see it as their channel of choice for pretty much any transaction. Whether opening accounts, banking or making purchases, millennials increasingly lean on their smartphones. In the no-surprise department, most (86%) millennials make purchases and conduct transactions from their smartphones, based on a new study. Millennials also have specific phone behavior preferences. For example, 68% prefer to use their phone camera rather than manually typing to get information into their phone and 28% want to enroll for everything from a new credit card to a gym membership by snapping a picture of their driver’s license, according to the study. The report, which focused on mobile preferences, is based on a survey of 1,000 consumers 18-to-34 years old, conducted by Zogby Analytics for Mitek. Growing up mobile, 68% of millennials got their first exposure to mobile capture with mobile check deposit and 40% of them wish there was more mobile capture functionality in banking. Consistent with studies of other demographics, Mitek found that the majority (54%) of millennials say security trumps convenience when using a mobile device. The security focus is causing a move to the mass adoption of biometric authentication, with biometrics being used for about 50% of mobile transactions, including banking shipping and enrollment next year, according to the study. Fingerprint readers in phones are aiding in the behavioral change of consumer habits. For example, a locked iPhone can be more quickly opened by a fingerprint scan than typing in a 6-digit code. And voice recognition continues to improve to the point that it will become the norm next year, according to Mitek. Using a phone’s camera to open an account is 50% faster than the traditional method of data entry, according to the study, and mobile account opening will overtake desktop account opening by 20% in 2016. Advances in camera technology will make smartphones better than the human eye when it comes to spotting authentic identity documents. This will lead to online and mobile technology becoming as good, if not better, than humans at verifying a person’s identity, bringing fraud losses down 15% in the mobile channel next year, based on the study. The implication is that improvements in mobile technologies to verify customer identifications in mobile will enable companies to double the amount of approved customers through the mobile channel by decreasing their pending queue. The net result is forecast to be a 50% increase of real applications being approved for accounts. Biometrics may also provide a boost to mobile payments, as long as the identification becomes quick and easy during the payment process. Not just because the technology works well, but because consumer behavior may be changed in other areas, such as in banking or opening accounts. Millennial mobile behavior at least provides a window to how smartphones can be more effectively integrated into commerce.

JSA Extension Close To Becoming Law

TVNewsCheck

As part of a federal funding bill that's expected to pass soon, joint sales agreements would be grandfathered until at least 2025.

 

By Doug Halonen

TVNewsCheck, December 16, 2015 1:45 PM EST 

      

A rider that would grandfather broadcast joint sales agreements for 10 years has been included in a massive federal funding bill that is expected to get a final nod from federal lawmakers as soon as week’s end, sources said.

The provision, which has already been vetted by key House and Senate leaders, would permit JSAs in effect as of March 31, 2014, to continue rather than having to unwind by the end of 2016 as the FCC had required.

 

The JSA protection rider, which was promoted by the National Association of Broadcasters, has been included in a compromise omnibus appropriations bill that is expected to be approved by Congress by Friday.

The omnibus bill provides funding for the federal government through Sept. 30, 2016.
"NAB applauds all of the hard work that went into including a joint sales agreement grandfathering provision in the proposed omnibus appropriations bill,” said Dennis Wharton, an NAB spokesman, in a statement.

“This provision would allow TV stations to better serve our viewers in smaller markets, and ensure that constituents in those communities continue to have access to numerous free, local programming options. We look forward to continuing to work on a bipartisan basis to address this important issue."

 

The legislative fix is a particularly good news for the Nexstar Broadcasting and the Sinclair Broadcast Group. Both rely heavily of the joint sales agreements to operate multiple stations in markets.

Five Youth Trends For 2016

By Melanie Shreffler Thursday, Dec. 17, 2015

Teens continue to put their stamp on culture and push forward new ideas and attitudes that spread to both their younger and older counterparts. Having monitored their habits in 2015, there are several trends that we predict will spread and take hold in 2016. These include changing interests in entertainment, a fresh approach to education, and a revised image of social media. Tell The Real Story The last installment of “The Hunger Games” hit theaters in the last quarter of 2015, and it signals the closure of the chapter of dystopian entertainment. While Young Adult literature (and film) has focused on this genre for some time, teens are beginning to look for a new type of story—a realistic story—to thrill them in the coming year. They’ve reached a tipping point with the negativity and disillusionment that is inherent in dystopian tales led by overdramatized characters saving the world. Instead, they are looking to be inspired by stories of everyday, average people who become heroes by doing the extraordinary. Such characters feel relatable and represent an achievable ideal. Moment Of Truth Teens not only want their entertainment to be more real but also want their social media accounts to reflect their true selves. In the past, they’ve been wont to treat their profiles as aspirational depictions of their lives, showing their best side. But it’s increasingly important—for teens and brands alike—to have authentic profiles because an embellished profile will be quickly found out. In addition, they are noticing that when they create an exaggerated online image, it can be hard to live up to. Australian teenager and popular Instagrammer Essena O’Neill made headlines when she quit the platform, admitting that many of her posts were contrived, paid for by brands, and didn’t represent who she was. More teenagers are making an effort to ensure that their posts are true to who they are. And even if they aren’t quite ready to do this with their primary Instagram account, they’re being themselves and not worrying about how they look on secondary accounts, called Finstas, that they share with their closest friends. Include Every Body Teens are starting to have a better perception of body image, and this will continue to progress in the coming year. They have been fighting to get media to include more accurate portrayals of the broad range of body types that they see among their peers. The marketers that have been on the forefront of responding to this desire are also the ones that are winning with teens’ wallets. They have a lot of respect for American Eagle’s Aerie brand, which no longer retouches the photos that it uses in advertising. This is as true among girls as it is among guys. Brands that present an unrealistic standard—think Abercrombie & Fitch—no longer resonate with youth. As this movement grows, the brands that help teens peers feel confident in who they are and included regardless of how they look will be the ones to which they gravitate. Get Smart Not too long ago, teens felt a great deal of pressure to be the best in school so that they could get into the best college and, eventually, land the best job. However, today’s teens are highly aware of the student debt crisis and don’t want to end up saddled with debt before they’ve even begun their adult lives. As a result, they are less interested in the most prestigious education they can buy; rather, they are looking to get the most for their money when it comes to college (and their current education). They believe they can get a high-quality education even if they don’t attend an Ivy League school. Just as this is affecting their future expectations, it is also shifting their current approach to education. They are pragmatic about school, seeking to identify their personal skills and hone them rather than simply striving to get the highest GPA in the class. They believe that doing so will set them on the course to future success. On The Rebound While teens are generally characterized as rarely looking up from their mobile devices, in fact, they are giving rise to a resurgence of analog activities. This is a rebound from their vastly digital lives. In response, they are glorifying tactile experiences, holding them up as being cooler than their digital versions. Much like their older peers, they have taken to using coloring books, reading print magazines, and happily toting around physical novels. Digital experiences have become increasingly harried and stressful, and, in comparison, offline experiences feel calming and rejuvenating. They know that when they pick up a book, they won’t be interrupted by ads, notifications, or even messages from their friends. They’re learning to appreciate this time as an escape from the pressures that digital media presents and their engagement in analog activities will grow in 2016.

November Sees Strong U.S. Ad Revenue Gains, Digital And TV Best Performers

 

• by Wayne Friedman, 8 hours ago

Strong TV and digital advertising rocketed November’s U.S. advertising revenues 23% higher versus the same month a year ago. Standard Media Index says the entire TV category witnessed a 17% gain for the month, with national broadcast up 15% and national cable 18% higher. SMI says cable networks ESPN, HGTV, TBS, and Food Network had double-digit percentage gains.

Much of the national TV improvements came from scatter market bookings during the month: 44% more revenue for national broadcast and up 24% for national cable. Upfront spending during the month witnessed a 9% improvement for broadcast and a 16% increase for cable versus November 2014.

Even higher gains of 28% were recorded for local cable sales, while  national syndication was up 25%. Spot TV grew 11% for the month.

Digital media continued to show strong improvements -- 37% higher, as social media more than doubled its revenue with an increase of 116%. Digital video revenues also around the same hikes, boosting 92%.

Advertising on digital content sites was up 20%, and programmatic media revenues grew 41%.
Other media also showed strong increases: Out-of-home, 44%; newspapers, 22%; and radio, 24%. Magazines were only able to increase 3% in revenue.

SMI’s results come from booking systems of five of the six global media holding groups, as well as leading independents, amounting to 80% of total national U.S. agency ad spending.

3-Month TV Ratings: Cable Drops More Than Broadcast

 

• by Wayne Friedman, Yesterday, 8:09 PM   

Through nearly three months of the new TV season, broadcast and cable networks have continued to see overall single-digit percentage declines in total day viewership among key viewers. Top cable network groups have fallen slightly more than broadcast networks -- down 6% for cable versus 3% for broadcast networks, in looking at 18-49 viewers for total day live and same-day time-shifted ratings, according to MoffettNathanson Research.

CBS and NBC have fared the best -- flat versus a year ago. Fox is down 2%, with ABC losing 12% from a year ago.

CBS has gained from strong NFL ratings and from college football. NBC’s prime-time “Sunday Night Football” ratings have given the network overall stability. Fox has also maintained health from its NFL programming, its Sunday afternoon games.

ABC has suffered because of declining Saturday night college football viewership.
Better-performing cable network groups are AMC Networks and independent cable channels, both gaining 2% in total day 18-49 viewer metrics. Scripps Networks Interactive and Time Warner cable network groups are each flat in viewership versus a year ago.

On the opposite side of things: A&E Networks is down 19% so far this year; NBCUniversal is off 13%; and Fox cable networks slipped 11%.

Somewhat better-performing cable networks are Viacom and Discovery Communications, each down 4% and Disney/ABC networks off 7%. Disney has been hurt by declines at ESPN and Disney Channel.

Fox tries to break the overnight ratings habit as TV viewing changes

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles Times

December 1, 2015 6:44 AM EST   

Fox is the first broadcast network to hold back on reporting Nielsen Fast National numbers. Fox Television Group Co-chairmen Dana Walden and Gary Newman wrote in a letter released by Fox that it’s time to “change the conversation” about ratings since so much viewing occurs from DVR playback, video on demand and online streaming platforms — “none of which are included in Nielsen’s fast nationals.” “It’s a good conversation to push forward,” said Chris Ender, spokesman for CBS Corp. “The content monetization universe is changing and we all need to evolve the discussion and metrics to a place that accurately reflects the full value of a show’s audience.”

      

Ed Araquel / Fox

 

 

Stephen BattaglioContact Reporter

On Jan. 24, 2016, Fox will present the first new episode of sci-fi cult hit “The X-Files” in nearly 14 years. Premiering after the always high-rated NFC Championship Game, it’s likely to be one of the most watched TV episodes of the season.

But don’t expect Fox to celebrate on Jan. 25. Fox Television Group Co-chairmen Dana Walden and Gary Newman have decided they will no longer circulate “fast national” or “overnight” ratings, the data from Nielsen that estimate the size of the audience that watched or played back a prime-time show the night before.

There will be no more ratings press releases from Fox about the previous night’s programs, unless the network airs a live event where delayed viewing is less of a factor. Fox show producers and stars looking for the numbers will have to call someone else.
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Fox is the first broadcast network to hold back on reporting the numbers. Walden and Newman wrote in a letter released by Fox that it’s time to “change the conversation” about ratings since so much viewing occurs from DVR playback, video on demand and online streaming platforms – “none of which are included in Nielsen’s fast nationals.”

 

In the 2015-16 TV season, the rating in the advertiser-coveted audience of 18- to 49-year-olds for Fox’s regularly scheduled programming goes up 44% when three days of DVR playback is added in, the highest percentage of the major broadcast networks.
“Fox is a company that has always prided itself on being forward-thinking,” Walden and Newman wrote, “…and nothing could be more antiquated than a decades-old measurement that reflects only a portion of our audience.”

Fox’s pronouncement generated a few snickers among competitors, some of whom privately suggested they would likely not have made such a move if it had better overnight ratings to tout for its series outside of the still-potent “Empire.”

 

One rival executive said, “Feel free to call me if you need Fox’s numbers,” which will still be available to other Nielsen customers.
But one executive at another network, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said it was conceivable that his outlet could take the same stance as Fox at some point.

All of the competitors acknowledged they have discussed ways to wean the industry and the press off the habit of using overnight ratings to declare shows instant winners or losers before the additional audience can be included.

“It’s a good conversation to push forward,” said Chris Ender, spokesman for CBS Corp. “The content monetization universe is changing and we all need to evolve the discussion and metrics to a place that accurately reflects the full value of a show’s audience.”

For good reason. The networks can charge advertisers for the additional audience that watches on a delayed basis. While they don’t get paid for the viewers who fast-forward through the commercials of shows on their DVRs, the overall total of people who watch adds value to a series when it's sold to international broadcasters or streaming services such as Amazon or Netflix. CBS’ biggest new hit of the season, “Limitless,” sees its audience grow by 78% when seven days of viewing are added to its initial airing on the network.

“You can't look at the TV ratings like you looked at it even a few short years ago,” CBS Corp. Chairman and CEO Leslie Moonves recently told Wall Street analysts.”Overnight ratings mean nothing. You don't get real results for three weeks.”

Moonves’ network has been the most aggressive about getting advertisers to make deals based on viewers’ exposure to their commercials over seven days of DVR and video-on-demand playback. Fox also says that half of its ad deals are now based on the seven-day numbers.
Still, it will require patience to change one of the most ingrained habits in the TV industry. Network executives on the West Coast are known to wake up in the morning and reach for their mobile devices to check the previous night’s ratings before they shower or have their coffee.

Advertising buyers also believe the live plus same day ratings are still useful to their business.
“It still serves as a guide as to how a show is ranked on a given night or how it performed versus last season,” said Billie Gold, vice president and director of programming research for Amplifi US.
Journalists who cover the TV industry are also used to having data to dissect the day after a show premieres. Television ratings website TVByTheNumbers.com responded to Fox’s edict by stating it will continue to report the network’s fast national numbers every day. The Hollywood trade press continues to report on Fox’s data as well.

There is precedent for altering the ratings discussion in the press. During the early 1990s, ABC and NBC pushed reporters to cover how their shows performed among 18- to 49-year-olds. At the time, a show’s popularity was measured by how many households were tuned in. But ABC and NBC noted that the rating for the demographic group represented the audience Madison Avenue paid for and largely decided a show’s chances for survival.  CBS initially resisted the shift as it had the high household ratings, thanks to the strength of older-skewing hits such as “60 Minutes” and “Murder, She Wrote.” But eventually, CBS touted its competitive position among younger viewers too.
The current TV business is dependent on other sources of revenue besides advertising. But for now, Fox will be out alone among the broadcast networks that won’t quickly disseminate the ratings (cable networks FX and USA have stopped issuing them, waiting until they have figures that include three days of delayed viewing of its shows).

Will Fox be able to hold back if the data contain good news about “The X-Files” return? The truth is out there.

How to Reinforce Training So It Sticks

 

Article | Mon, 11/30/2015 - 11:35

by: Shapiro Negotiations Institute

 

Ongoing training is important for employees to stay ahead of the curve and do their jobs effectively. But what about training reinforcement? One could argue that reinforcement may be as important as the training itself. After all, even the best training won’t mean much if there’s nothing done to reinforce it. But what’s the best way to make sure that employees retain what they’ve learned?

No magic bullet
When reinforcing what employees have learned, many managers seem to be seeking a magic bullet. This is a mistake because there is no such cure-all. Effective reinforcement is all about reminding attendees of the content covered within the training and holding them accountable for its application. And, you must have buy-in from the top. If VPs and managers aren’t supporting the initiative, the long-term impact will be lacking.

When it comes to reinforcement, one size doesn’t fit all. Everyone learns differently, so providing different methods of reinforcement is key. Some learners respond better to audio, while for others, video is the best method.

For organizations that supply everyone with a phone, having a custom application with all the pertinent information preloaded is a good way to go. For organizations with staff that is always in the office, mobile wouldn’t make sense – take advantage of their constant access to a computer. For example, for some groups email campaigns aren’t a thing of the past – weekly email campaigns are still used to help reinforce training in many organizations where this medium is cultural fit.
The larger the group, the more diverseit is, so providing multiple touch points for reinforcement can be even more effective. Many times, what attracts participation is whatever’s hot – mobile platforms are currently trendy, for example. While that seems sexy, in the end, it is important to use the platform and content that will be most effective – don’t lost sight of that.

Videotaping participants is also a powerful tool in reinforcement. For example, role play can be videotaped to ensure learners are grasping new information.

What about online reinforcement?
While training in person usually works best, using online reinforcement methods can sometimes be even more effective than in-person. Brainshark is an example of an online tool that can be accessed on a computer, tablet or smart phone, and shows aggregate and individual data.
With online reinforcement, you can track how much time participants spent on something, how many videos they watched,and so on. And after months of evaluating the data collected during online interaction, organizations can see where participants have spent the most time,what tools are being used and what’s most effective. Some of this information can be used to drive future training sessions and reinforcement.

Real-world tactics that work
Here are some practical examples of ways you can hold your team accountable:

• If you tie the prep work to a CRM system, employees can’t hide whether or not they’ve completed it. But, make sure to incentivize them to use it or else they may resent it.
• Have salespeople use a checklist for every transaction over a certain dollar amount.
• Have managers attend the training first so that they buy-in, speak the same language, and can hold their teamsaccountable. They can then coach to what was presented in the training on a day-to-day basis.  
• Create reinforcement campaigns based on the mediums participants already use. For example, if your sales force uses iPads for presentations in the field, develop a solution that allows them to access the content from their devices.
• Make reinforcement consistent and frequent. These are two critical factors in making something habitual. For example, consider sending an email or text out every Wednesday morning with a tip. Just make sure everything you send is valuable.

 Try incorporating some of these methods into your training reinforcement to see if you achieve better results while also gaining insight into what areas might need more focus in your next round of training sessions.

Also for TV and Radio Sales Training....one of the best in the country today is Guld
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Forecast: TV Ad Growth To Rise Nearly 5% In 2016

 

• by Wayne Friedman, November 30, 2015, 11:11 AM

After a weak first half of the year, TV advertising continues to perk up in recent months -- and will see stronger growth in 2016 due to the Summer Olympics and presidential elections.

 

MoffettNathanson Research estimates overall TV advertising will climb 4.8% next year -- with local TV stations the big gainer, up 10% in revenue in 2016 versus a 4.5% decline in 2015. Local cable will also grow to high levels -- 7.4% versus 6.0% for 2015. Political advertising and Olympics will be major contributing factors.

The big four broadcast networks will rise 6% in 2016 after a year of mostly down periods, averaging an estimated 4% pullback for the full-year 2015.

 

National cable networks will remain consistent -- albeit with lower gains. MoffettNathanson expects those channels will see a 1.2% gain in 2016 -- up from a 1% estimated hike in 2015 and a 1% actual rise in 2014.

 

For the most recent three-month period, national TV networks performed a bit better than expected -- up 1% to $8.3 billion against an estimated 0.7% decline. Strong scatter market sales marked the difference.

 

Overall, there has been a 6.4% decline for the first nine months of 2015 for TV networks and a 2.6% overall for TV -- which includes broadcast and cable networks, local TV stations and local cable.

Among the broadcast networks, ABC led in improvement -- 5% higher during the period to $753 million. NBC (including its TV stations) was 2.8% higher at $1.19 billion, while CBS was basically flat at 0.1% to $788 million and Fox sank nearly 7% to $409 million.

 

Cable network groups were led by AMC Networks -- up a big 40% to $193 million. Scripps Networks Interactive added on 5.2% to $448 million; Discovery Communications was up 4% to $404 million; and Fox cable networks also gained 4% to $520 million. Viacom was on the other end of the spectrum -- down 7.5% to $1.0 billion.

In Internet Fraud Study, New Ways To Protect Revenue

INSIDERADIO

December 2, 2015

 

Internet fraud, malware advertising and consumption of infringed content cost U.S. companies $8.2 billion per year in lost revenue, according to "What is an Untrustworthy Supply Chain Costing the Digital Ad Industry?," a report conducted by research firm EY. "The good guys in the supply chain are missing out on revenue," Nick Terlizzi, media and entertainment advisory partner at EY, said in a webinar. The IAB and its members are seeking "to understand the cost to the U.S. ecosystem so we can collectively work on solutions," said Sherrill Mane, the IAB’s senior VP of research, analytics and measurement. Content publishers, which include radio stations, are at risk of losing $2.4 billion from consumption of infringed content, the report says, including lost ad revenue and improper sharing of subscription services. Losses from malware and invalid traffic are also hurting revenues and driving up company’s costs as they work to increase their own security. Publishers, advertisers, agencies and networks—businesses all involved in the online supply chain—need to "band together to address trust issues," Terlizzi said. Some ways to cut down on the illicit online activities that lead to losses, Terlizzi said, is to stop serving ads to sites with infringed content and for companies to improve their own digital security. The impact that fraud and piracy have on online revenue is the first phase of the IAB’s study; the second stage will involve suggestions for improving media transparency and brand safety.

Advertisers Drawn To Engaged Podcast Listeners. The second season of NPR’s hit "Serial" debuts soon—one of many reasons podcasts are in the spotlight—and more marketers are looking for ways to get on board to reach the highly-engaged audience and keep up with media trends. According to Westwood One’s "State of American Podcasting" report, 41% of advertisers surveyed have considered podcast advertising, but only 15% were currently advertising in the medium. But the ranks are growing. Pandora, the exclusive streaming partner for "Serial" and another popular NPR Podcast, "This American Life," has signed Warner Bros. and Esurance as sponsors. Thanks in part to "Serial," awareness and use of podcasts is growing, and advertisers are following suit. Several radio station groups have made significant investments recently in podcasting, including Hubbard Radio, which now owns a 30% stake in the PodcastOne network, and E.W. Scripps, which in July acquired podcast producer Midroll Media. In Q4, Midroll is running ads for Chipotle and GE, and GE has created a cobranded, sci-fi podcast with Slate’s Panoply network. "It used to be that we’d go to advertisers and step one was explaining what the heck a podcast is. That happens much less often [now]," Lex Friedman, executive VP of sales and development at Midroll, told Adweek. A recent study of Chipotle’s advertising on a Midroll podcast, "WTF With Marc Maron," showed 90% of listeners could recall the restaurant’s ad. Listener numbers are also a big selling point. In its first season, "Serial" attracted more than 100 million downloads on iTunes, averaging around 8.3 million per episode. And more than 46 million Americans download at least one podcast per month, according Edison Research, and the audience is more educated and have higher incomes.

Smartphone Use Reaches Four-Fifths Of U.S. Smartphones have more than reached critical mass as a critical accessory. Nielsen’s Connected Devices report for third-quarter 2015 reveals that four-fifths the U.S. population have the ubiquitous device (a number that’s growing), and they’re used for countless tasks. According to Nielsen Mobile Insights, smartphone ownership is up 8%, compared to the same period in 2014. "Whether it be taking pictures of gatherings around the dinner table, posting pictures and tweets to social networking sites, looking up recipes for the best ingredient for a holiday dessert or checking the score of the football game, the number of uses for smartphones are just as varied as individual family traditions," the study says. In addition, Nielsen Mobile Netview says that as of October, the most popular app categories (based on time spent per month) are search engines, portals and social networking apps, soaking up 16 hours and 2 minutes of usage. Users utilize entertainment apps for 13 hours and 27 minutes each month, and communication apps grab 4 hours and 39 minutes. Nielsen’s People Meter Panel also notes that tablet penetration has seen significant growth year-over-year: For Q3 2015, 39% report owning tablets, a massive 30% increase over 2014.

For Holiday Shoppers, No Place Like Home. The challenge. The cold. The wondrous principle of navigating long lines outside the local Best Buy to save $100 on an HDTV—they’re all Black Friday trademarks. But the Friday bargain hunt is starting to give way more to the hunt and peck on keyboards. Shoppers are increasingly seeking and clicking on great deals from the comfort of home. This year, IBM Tech30 reports that digital sales were up 21.5% on Nov. 27 compared to the Friday after Thanksgiving one year ago. Adobe puts total Black Friday online spending in the U.S. at $2.7 billion. The firm also reports that online spending on Thursday and Friday totaled a record $4.47 billion. "U.S. consumers have turned into digital shopping ninjas," Adobe analyst Tamara Gaffney told CNN. In addition, online sales rose a robust 14% on Cyber Monday, which not only set a record but was apparently so brisk that Target’s website briefly crashed while outages or slow checkouts were reported at Wal-Mart, Foot Locker and others. Adobe Digital Index predicted that by the end of Monday, Web shopping would total $3 billion. The bargains actually began earlier: Between Thanksgiving Day and Sunday, $8.03 billion was spent online, a 17% increase from 2014, Adobe says. The average shopper spent $135.25, up 4% from 2014. In addition, mobile, which includes phones and tablets, accounted for 53% of shopping visits, driving 32% of online sales. The National Retail Federation says that more than 151 million people shopped over the weekend, either in a physical store or online—a large jump from the 136 million who said they planned to shop in a survey a few weeks ago, MediaPost reports.

 

 
 


 

It's About Time, Literally: Ad Industry Eyes Temporal Planning

 

• by Joe Mandese @mp_joemandese, Yesterday, 9:47 AM

In a move that signals a potential shift in the way the ad industry thinks about its most fundamental principles of media planning -- reach and frequency -- a leading media planning software provider has created a way to calculate it based on the amount of time consumers actually spend with media. The new tool, which will be introduced by Telmar early next year, isn’t intended to replace conventional reach and frequency models that are gospel for many advertisers and agencies, but is designed to give them another way of looking at it: a temporal way.

 

The approach, which Telmar calls RFT (for reach-frequency-time), comes at a time when a number of industry stakeholders are beginning to rethink the value of the time consumers actually spend with media, and how it can be leveraged to assign more value to the media that deliver it.

 

Earlier this year, a number of premium publishers began adopting advertising models that charge advertisers based not just on “impressions” -- who and how many people are exposed to their ads -- but for how long they are. The Financial Times introduced its “cost per hour” (CPH) model to advertisers in May, offering it as a replacement for the cost-per-thousand (CPM) impressions models historically used by publishers.

 

In July, mobile video and rich media format developer Sled Mobile introduced a “cost-per-second” model enabling advertisers and agencies to “de-risk” their media budgets by paying only for the time consumers were exposed to their ads on mobile screens.

 

In November, The Economist introduced an “attention buy” format that charges advertisers based on how much attention readers pay to their digital ads.

While the ad industry has been organizing around the concept of a minimal viable exposure of time -- the Media Rating Council recommends one second for a banner ad and two seconds for a video ad to even be counted as an impression -- the shift to more explicit measures of time-based exposure has been slow to gather steam, in part, because there is little foundation in media planning theory for thinking about it that way. The original precepts of reach & frequency planning were based on static assumptions of media exposure and did not account for the amount of time individual people actually spend with them.

 

“This is a giant step forward for brands in the age of global planning,” asserts Paul Gold, vice president-strategic data operations at Telmar, who helped develop the new RFT analyzer. To illustrate the point, Gold says, “imagine if Coke found that its drinkers used their smartphones 20% less than Pepsi drinkers in a part of the world where no media planning data existed. That would have a huge impact on their ability to evaluate alternative media investments in the market.”

That’s exactly what Gold says Telmar found when it conducted a pilot study to serve as a “proof of concept” for the RFT analyzer. Not surprising, it picked a highly topical advertising category where there are clear lines of division among the time that consumer segments spend with various media: politics.

 

The study surveyed 3,299 Americans on the amount of time they spend with various media, as well as their party affiliations, and divided them into Democratic-leaning, Republican-leaning and Undecided voters based on the amount of time they spent with media.

The study looked at all the major media used by the respondents -- digital, print, radio, and TV -- but some of the most interesting analysis come from looking at RFT planning within a medium, utilizing one of the most fundamental forms of temporal media planning: the daypart.

 

On that basis, Telmar analyzed three different TV schedules of 200 gross rating points each applied to three daypart plans: daytime, prime-time and one dispersed throughout the day. The test showed markedly different reach and frequency curves for each voter segment. Daytime-only scheduled performed the worst. Prime-time schedules delivered the greatest reach among Democrats and undecideds. Dispersed schedules delivered the greatest reach among Republicans.

 

One of the more interesting -- and potentially topical -- parts of the Telmar study is that it also analyzed the consumer segments based on whether they installed and used digital ad-blocking software. On that basis, Telmar found that Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson would fare better than Bernie Sanders and Trump in terms of getting their online ads seen on user’s browsers, because those candidates had lower percentages of supporters who installed ad blockers.

 

Telmar President Corey Panno says the new RFT analyzer isn’t intended to be used as a form of media-buying “currency,” although it will be replicating the studies and offering the tool in markets where there is little or no audience data available, including Third World markets in Africa, Asia and South America.

 

But the real purpose of the analyzer is simply to give planners and ad executives another way to think about the role of consumer time spent with media plays in planning reach and frequency.

 

“We should always be challenging those original principles,” says Barry Lowenthal, president of The Media Kitchen, who hasn’t been briefed on the new Telmar product yet, but said he agreed with the idea of thinking beyond static reach and frequency. “They were the best that we had at those times, but what happens is that they sort of shift from principles and become laws. We shouldn’t forget that they’re not laws, they’re just the best way we had to do something at that time.”

 

Lowenthal said measuring time spent as a “first filter” is a “good start,” but he said the ultimate goal is to “figure out how we reach uniques.” By that, he means, unique media consumers within a medium or across media channels. One of the problems doing that, he said, is the data isn’t available for some big analogue media to do that.

 

“We spend a lot of money on TV and out-of-home and there’s not a way to do that,” he said.

“I think everyone is struggling with what have been relatively blunt evaluations tools that we been using to develop and analyze various media and the plans we put together,” adds Audrey Siegel, managing partner of sister MDC Partners agency Assembly.

 

Siegel, who also had not been briefed on the new Telmar product was a little skeptical about its potential value, adding: “What would make an actionable tool is if we could find something beyond a rating point and ge to a more meaningful understanding about what those impressions are, and how they play out with the user/listener/viewer, in terms of their actions. What we’re really trying to do is get to some kind of comprehensive measurement of all screens.”

5 Predictions For 2016: Connexity's Craig Teich Says Fraud & Viewability Concerns Persist

by Tobi Elkin @tobielkin, Yesterday, 9:00 AM 

Craig Teich is EVP of global sales at Connexity (formerly Shopzilla), which focuses on programmatic sales of first-party retail data. From that perspective, here are Teich’s predictions for 2016:
Teich: First-party data will become the foundation for more sophisticated audience modeling:

1. In 2016, marketers will increasingly partner with outside data providers that can add value by supplementing the marketer’s own online and offline customer data. Marketers will no longer be pigeonholed into simple retargeting campaigns, or even buying off-the-shelf audiences that were created without any insight into the marketer’s unique customer set. Instead, by combining assets with third-party providers, they’ll identify new, meaningful data signals that provide the basis for more sophisticated audience targeting.

Teich: Big players will get bigger, but small stars will shine, too: 
2. In the coming year, as programmatic technology matures, the largest marketing technology companies will continue to eliminate gaps in their product suites so they can offer marketers complete end-to-end solutions. In order to remain accessible, smaller, best-in-class vertical and format specialists should prioritize integrating their solutions into these larger consolidated tech platforms. Despite the dominance of larger companies, niche providers will continue to be recognized and prioritized for delivering significant incremental value.

Teich: Programmatic will help marketers take action on insights:
3. In 2016, marketers will begin to evolve to a new model of actionable insights, seamlessly integrating consumer insights into programmatic media campaigns. In years past, marketing teams struggled to translate customer insights into media programs. Learnings were passed (and diluted along the way) from client to agency to media vendor via spreadsheets and presentations. The automation and speed of programmatic will close the gaps between insights and media and help marketers better connect with the audiences they want to reach.

Teich: Fraud and viewability concerns may stick around for a while longer:
4. Publishers will be held increasingly accountable for delivering the value they promise. Fraud caused by phantom clicks and dodgy, bot-driven activity is being discussed openly by all, and significant progress will be made in the coming year to overcome this challenge.
Unfortunately, players will find new ways to game the system, meaning marketers will need to stay vigilant against fraud. Viewability concerns will also persist, as publishers still want to create as much inventory as possible, while many marketers focus on aggregate performance and overlook ads not seen by audiences. Reliance on private programmatic marketplaces built from quality publishers will grow as an easy solution to fraud and viewability concerns.

Teich: Programmatic TV is coming soon, but the supply isn’t there yet:
5. In 2016, more brands will experiment with connected & programmatic TV – but the delivery systems and supply still have a way to go. After the plumbing and inventory are in place, the same data we use to target audiences online could be used to target audiences via programmatic TV. There’ll be little difference between running a programmatic TV campaign or pre-roll on YouTube.

TV Everywhere's Day Is Here

By J. Max Robins Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015 As I slowly came out of my post-Turkey Day L-Tryptophan haze, and looked back on a day of big gatherings (around the table, and around the set and smartphones), I realized that a bunch of things have happened in the last couple of weeks that screamed one important thing: Namely, that we are in one of those critical-mass phases of the TV Everywhere universe.   In quick succession, a major broadcast network, Fox, has said, “no mas!” to the ritual of issuing overnight ratings, proclaiming what anyone with half a brain has known for years: Those numbers are meaningless. All the worthless horse-race hype of overnights sent to journos was a game Fox would no longer play. It’s now a world where the vast majority of the audience creates its own prime time, whether through DVR or one of the myriad streaming services. On the heels of that event, I read a survey from Clearleap, a research consultancy that counts HBO, Scripps and A+E Networks among its clients. That study said “streaming services penetration” — a phrase I have to admit sounds more than vaguely pornographic — is nearly on par with the 79% of people who have cable. That penetration counts the number of people using Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, et al. Let’s assume, correctly, that numbers such as these put fear into the hearts of cable honchos coast to coast, especially given that “Millennials are leading the over-the-top revolution.” According to the study, more than 70% of viewers between the ages of 18-29 use at least one streaming service, while only 64% are cable subscribers. In addition, the survey found that more than one-quarter of Millennials have never subscribed to cable. Frankly, I’m surprised that number wasn’t substantially higher. And that’s only part of the tale of why those cord-cutters and cable-nevers numbers will climb by double digits in the coming years. Case in point: After Black Friday sales were tallied, the second-biggest selling item on Amazon was the Jeff Bezos behemoth’s own Fire TV device for streaming video. The three iterations of the Fire TV were only exceeded in popularity by another Amazon device, its entry-level 7-inch Fire Tablet that had been reduced in price for Black Friday from $50 to $35. Fire TV models, ranging from $39.99-$99.99, are but some of the many low-cost devices out in the market to entice Millennials to keep saying cable-never, or to cut the cord. To the rest of us — the out-of-the-prime demo — there are better and better ways to do likewise. Watch closely and see sales soar this Christmas for inexpensive over-the-top gadgets like the second generation of Google’s $35 Chromecast; feature-laden streaming devices, such as the $199 Roku 4; the $199 Apple TV; and TiVo’s $299 Bolt. They’re all certain to be wrapped with care and placed in the light of the Menorah and underneath the Christmas tree. Clearly, Liberty Global chairman John Malone, the King of the Cable Cowboys, has been paying attention to the seismic shifts happening in the TV Everywhere landscape. Malone recently sat down for a rare interview with his biographer, MultiChannel News and Broadcasting & Cable editorial director Mark Robichaux. As savvy as anyone I know in the TV Everywhere ecosystem, Malone acknowledged that this is sea-change time in unknown waters. “Over-the-top will continue to grow and succeed and be experimented with,” Malone said. “In some cases, the services will be supplemental to some other package — and in some households, it’ll be replacement. “And the bottom line is, connectivity is here to stay, both stationary and mobile. The question really is, who can provide it in the best way?” Good question. Maybe this holiday season will provide an answer. And after all the wrapping paper is tossed, and the presents given, I believe it’ll look like streamers -- both providers and viewers -- will have gotten most everything they wanted. And cable? It could be getting a lump of coal.

How Nielsen’s new ratings will play out

Effects of increasing its household sample and adding online viewing

By Diego Vasquez

December 2, 2015

   

Ratings for broadcast shows such as ‘Madam Secretary’ could see big bumps with the addition of online viewing.

One of the major criticisms of Nielsen is that the company moves very slowly with changes. But in the coming months there are going to be a lot of changes at the ratings measurement company. It’s bumping up its sample size of households, addressing one of the longstanding complaints from media buyers and planners. Nielsen will go from 25,920 to 40,330 households, which it claims will increase the reliability of ratings by nearly a third. Also next year, digital viewership from online sources such as desktops and tablets will be added to TV ratings. And Nielsen will begin tracking DVR playback beyond seven days. Each of these changes is sure to have an impact on how media is planned and bought. Networks are expected to make an even greater push to use seven-day DVR playback commercial ratings rather than the current three-day. And there could be some surprises relating to who’s actually watching which shows. Media people are generally excited about the changes and believe they’ll lead to more accurate ratings, at a time when Nielsen is feeling heat from the proposed merger of rival ratings firms Rentrak and comScore. John Morse, Ph.D., head of the full-service media marketing research company Byron Media, talks to Media Life about how the changes will resonate in media, whether buyers will ever pay for month-long DVR playback, and what measurements he’s still waiting to see.  

Nielsen will significantly increase its sample size come January. What type of impact could this potentially have on ratings?
The impact on ratings is unclear at this time.
Theoretically, the only changes should be greater statistical reliability and consistency. However, when samples change, there have typically been some companies that experience increases and others decreases. Supposedly, the weighting of the data to match the census on key variables should minimize this.

The greater reliability means that low-rated networks and programs are more likely to be reportable and therefore monetizable. Nielsen has calculated that this will increase reliability of audience data by 31 percent.

What do you think will be the effect of adding in digital viewership?
It is clear from numerous research sources that adding in the viewing on mobile, tablets, desktops will spike the ratings significantly. In fact, I expect the overall combined ratings to break records and document that Americans are putting in more digital video screen time than ever before.

What do all these changes mean for media buyers and planners? Do you think they will impact their decision making?
Until this audience data is publicly released through Nielsen’s new aggregated syndicated service in the middle of 2016, there will not be any changes in buying and planning.
However, everyone will be peeking at whatever data is available to begin to consider the impact on overall audiences.

In first quarter 2016 anticipation will build about the added audiences. Then will come the back and forth between buyers and sellers on pricing.
Will the audiences on newly measured devices be counted the same as traditional TV audiences? They should be, but there is likely to be some pushback and discounting.

One of the things being added in is DVR playback beyond seven days. Is that of any value to media people?
The value will vary by program genre.
Sports and news are mostly watched live or live plus same-day [DVR playback]. However, movies, documentaries and the top program series will get a small lift by adding in ratings beyond seven days.
Even these genres are mostly replayed in the first three days, so the value will not be huge but will add some revenue value. The question remains will the agencies accept anything beyond C7, now that the movement is under way to accept audience viewing beyond C3, the standard for the recent past?

Is there anything you would still like to see that Nielsen is not adding? Why?
Measuring OTT, especially Netflix, needs to be a priority.
With so many people dropping traditional multichannel subscriptions in favor of inexpensive internet-based ones, the audience migration needs to be fully measured. But currently Nielsen won’t measure sources without the cooperation of a service to code the programs for measurement.
Nielsen should find a way to apply its own code and measure these options–even at the risk of upsetting some services, which don’t want their numbers to be publicly reported.

Fox recently said it’s abandoning L+SD/overnight ratings. Do you think these ratings present an accurate picture of TV viewing in light of changing watching patterns?
We know that L+SD provides an incomplete measure of total audience. However, some programmers continue to run these numbers in order to get an early heads-up on how shows are doing. Sales, on the other hand, need to add as long a timeline as the market will bear.
There may be two accounting moments for settling up on audience delivery: L+7 and L+35.

Are you satisfied with Nielsen’s timeline for these changes–is it too late, at just the right time, or are they being rushed?
The industry is divided on almost everything that Nielsen is doing, with the exception of adding new national sample without increasing prices.
One faction wants to have more time to vet and critique any new data added into the Nielsen national sample. Others are anxious to get an expanded sample and to incorporate additional audience platforms.
However, there is no client consensus about what Nielsen should do. Most companies are wary but excited by the prospect that ratings will likely be higher. In part because of the competitive situation, Nielsen is feeling a lot of pressure to move forward with enhanced measurement.
I’m looking forward to it.

What should Nielsen be keeping an eye on for the future to ensure the ratings remain reflective of viewer preferences?
Given the proliferation of viewing options–the number of digital viewing channels on the internet–Nielsen needs to continue to expand its samples and find a way to add a representative sample of set-top box ratings for households.
There will need to have editing rules to make sure the household data is reliable. There are a lot of other issues related to using STB data, including cost, and Nielsen has been working on this for years.
But compare the statistical stability of Rentrak’s 18 million homes to Nielsen’s 40 thousand. Putting the STB data into Nielsen play would be a game-changer.