Thursday, March 31, 2011

TV Station Groups Post Huge Gains

MediaDailyNews
by Wayne Friedman, Monday, March 28, 2011, 5:27 PM

For the fourth consecutive quarter in a row, major TV station groups posted eye-popping double-digit gains -- and saw rising profit margins, some nearing performance levels of the 1980s and 1990s.

New York-based media investment/adviser M.C. Alcamo & Co. says profit margins for TV stations grew by 10 points to 40% for some 15 broadcasting companies it covers in the fourth quarter of 2010. This was versus a 30% profit margin number in fourth-quarter 2009.

These results near the 50% or greater gains that virtually all TV station groups had garnered decades ago. Some, like Sinclair Broadcast Group and Meredith Corp., got to this magical mark, posting the quarter's highest profit margins of 51% for all TV companies.

For the 15 broadcasting companies it covers, M.C. Alcamo says revenues rose 27.1% to $371.8 million -- in part helped by the turnaround from major ad categories such as automotive marketers, as well as a surging political ad market.

The best performers: Fisher Communications grew 49% in revenue to $18.9 million; Gray Television added on 47.8% to $37.1 million.

Alcamo covers seven "pure play" broadcasters: Belo Corp, Entravision Communications, Fisher Communications, Gray Television, Lin Television, Nexstar Broadcasting and Sinclair Broadcast Group. Eight other multimedia companies are also followed: Gannett Company, Journal Communications, Meredith, Media General, McGraw-Hill Companies, Saga Communications, E.W. Scripps and Washington Post Co.

"The unusually strong profits will likely be utilized in three ways," says Michael Alcamo, president of M.C. Alcamo & Co. First, he says many broadcasters will continue to pay down outstanding debt. Plus, many will set aside these big cash reserves for strategic investments. Third, stations will look to upgrade station infrastructure, such as HD technology.

Consumer Prices Headed Up Come June

USA Today Retail
3.31.2011

Get to your clients who utilize your media voice and have them promote good pricing on goods and services they sell so as to help consumers see their intrinsic value based on the coming inflationary surge to begin in June according to Wal-Mart's U.S. Operations head...see below..PJL

U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday.

The world's largest retailer is working with suppliers to minimize the effect of cost increases and believes its low-cost business model will position it better than its competitors.

Still, inflation is "going to be serious," Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY's editorial board. "We're seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate."

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Along with steep increases in raw material costs, John Long, a retail strategist at Kurt Salmon, says labor costs in China and fuel costs for transportation are weighing heavily on retailers. He predicts prices will start increasing at all retailers in June.

"Every single retailer has and is paying more for the items they sell, and retailers will be passing some of these costs along," Long says. "Except for fuel costs, U.S. consumers haven't seen much in the way of inflation for almost a decade, so a broad-based increase in prices will be unprecedented in recent memory."

Consumer prices — or the consumer price index — rose 0.5% in February, the most since mid-2009, largely because of surging food and gasoline prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose a more modest 0.2%, though that still exceeded estimates.

The scenario hits Wal-Mart as it is trying to return to the low across-the-board prices it became famous for. Some prices rose as the company paid for costly store renovations.

"We're in a position to use scale to hold prices lower longer ... even in an inflationary environment," Simon says. "We will have the lowest prices in the market."

Major retailers such as Wal-Mart are the best positioned to mitigate some cost increases, Long says. Wal-Mart, for example, could have "access to any factory in any country around the globe" to mitigate the effect of inflation in the U.S., Long says.

Still, "it's certainly going to have an impact," Long says. "No retailer is going to be able to wish this new cost reality away. They're not going to be able to insulate the consumer 100%."

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Borrell Associates’ 2011 Ad Forecast Memo

2011 ONLINE AD GROWTH TO OUTPACE TOTAL AD SPEND GROWTH

Borrell Associates is forecasting a moderate increase in overall ad spending for 2011, but continued strong growth for online advertising, including mobile. Overall, advertisers will increase their spending next year by less than 5% above this year's projected level, bringing U.S. ad spending totals to $238.6 billion.

We're expecting total online ad spending to grow almost 14%, from $45.6 billion, in 2010, to $51.9 billion, in 2011. The fastest-growing segments of online advertising are the local sector, anything targeted, and everything involving social media.

By next year, local online advertising should grow by almost 18%, from $13.7 billion, in 2010, to $16.1 billion, in 2011. The big driver will be targeted display (such as banner ads) advertising, which we expect to grow almost 60% in 2011, reaching $10.9 billion for national and local combined. While national advertisers will increase their use of targeted display by nearly 50%, local advertisers will outperform even that. Use of targeted display by advertisers local to the markets where their ads run will more than double, reaching more than $2.3 billion next year.

However, the Web's initial darling –run-of-site display– continues to lose luster. Sales of run-of-site display ads will continue to decrease, dropping nearly 14% from this year's level – from $9.5 billion to $8.2 billion for both local and national. This early online format has simply been overshadowed by newer, more productive ad formats, and competition has pushed display unit prices down. Most of the spending decease will come from national advertisers. Local run-of-site ads are forecast to decrease less than 3% next year.

The national paid search ad format will experience a double-digit spending decline next year, moving down 11.3%. This drop will be caused by lower pricing and churn, but will be mitigated by a local advertiser increase of more than 10%. (In general, local online advertiser trends tend to lag those of the larger national advertisers by about two years, and that is certainly the case for paid search.) Local spending decreases in paid search are sure to follow, perhaps as soon as 2012.

Email advertising will see moderately strong growth in 2011, up 9% to $16.0 billion for national and local. Growth in this format is almost all from national advertisers; only 3% is local. White paper marketing is a major contributor to its popularity – especially among B2B advertisers.

The streaming video format is expected to continue its dramatic growth, increasing more than 60% to $5.6 billion next year. More DIY and less expensive tools put this ad format within the budgets of even small advertisers. Because of this, two out of every five streaming video ad dollars will come from local advertisers next year. Streaming audio, on the other hand, looks to remain a footnote. Though it too will enjoy double-digit ad spending increases in 2011, streaming audio has yet to pass the $1 billion ad spending level.

Unlike legacy marketing, where promotions overshadows advertising, online advertising has historically gotten far more attention from marketers than online promotions. But changes are coming. Online promotions will top $24 billion next year, up 10% from this year's totals. Much of this increase will be due to the rising use of online couponing, forecast to grow almost 14%, to $9.1 billion, in 2011. Proximity advertising is also on the rise, up 11% next year. Mobile devices that can tell users when a particular merchant is in their immediate vicinity continue to sell briskly, and advertisers are expressing interest in this form of advertising.

Mobile marketing continues to grow, fueled by ubiquitous apps, user-friendly browsers and 3G/4G speeds. As smartphone ownership now comprises 25% of all cellphone ownership, mobile ad sales will enjoy growth of more than 20 cents of every online ad dollar spent next year.

Subscribers to Borrell research will be able to download the 2011 Detailed Forecast for free. Everyone else will be able to download the 2011 Summary Forecast for free. For more information about a subscription, call Martin Nyberg at 253-678-1975 or email him at mnyberg@borrellassociates.com .

Philly Stations Innovate to Raise Revenue

TVNewsCheck The Business of Broadcasting
from Philadelphia Inquirer Television Critic

Philadelphia's TV stations scramble to cope with new financial and technological picture
By Jonathan Storm

And then there was one.

6ABC is now the only Philadelphia TV station that has its own helicopter - not the big story in the grand scheme of local television, even if the station does air a promo every five minutes.

The big story is bigger. The city's major TV stations are doing all sorts of things to boost revenue and keep up with technology: joining forces, rebooting websites, reformatting news shows, branching into new time slots, creating new shows, and, in one instance, starting a new local channel.

It's the best-of-times, the worst-of-times as local TV climbs out of the economic morass of 2009. The long-term trend is down, but revenue increased last year, even as ratings continued to drop.

Prying financials from local stations is like trying to get an American Idol contestant to sing softly, but figures from Borrell & Associates, a leading media-research firm, show advertising revenue from local TV operations reversing a years-long slide, up 2 percent in 2010, but down more than one-third since 2006.

Nielsen Co. figures show average full-day viewership among the six largest Philadelphia stations dropped 8.3 percent between 2009 and 2010 in the November "sweeps" period, when ratings in many markets are used to set advertising rates. It's hard to get a true picture from year-to-year sweeps comparisons, but over the last four years, viewer numbers have dived 17 percent.

Still, for the first time in several years, there's joy in Mudville. "The market's been very healthy for quite a while," said Patrick Paolini, vice president and general manager of Fox29. "I'm optimistic for the rest of the year.

"Within this market," said Jon Hitchcock, president and general manager of CBS3 and CW57, "I think you'll start to see more and more local programming" as stations try to build revenue.

As the general economy rebounds, local businesses are seeking to advertise themselves out of the recession. Auto dealers, a TV staple that virtually vanished from the screen at the height of the downturn, are back strong.

Not only will TV get more advertisers, executives believe, it will be able to raise rates despite lower ratings. That is because television, unlike print or digital media, has a finite inventory of ad space; there are only 24 hours in a day.

"It's basically supply-and-demand forces at work," said Bernie Shimkus, vice president of research for Harmelin Media, the Philadelphia market's biggest media buyer, in an e-mail. "Most advertisers . . . are still interested in reaching the largest audience, as quickly as possible. Despite declines in ratings, local broadcast channels still provide the best opportunity to achieve that goal."

Borrell Associates, which researches advertising data across all platforms, has found that Philadelphia stations lost $327 million, about one-third, in annual revenue from their TV operations over the last four years. Newspapers in the region sustained a drop of more than 40 percent, about $700 million.

But Borrell found regional online advertising nearly doubling in the same period, from $787 million to $1.5 billion, something that benefited all the traditional media that have started websites.

The digital revolution itself is a boon to TV, with all those ads for Xfinity, and Verizon, and Apple, but the stations are also working to get a bigger share of the online market itself. In addition to $625 million earned in TV operations in 2010, Borrell estimated, Philadelphia's stations took in nearly $45 million in online advertising.

CBS and NBC have revamped their sites, with CBS Corp. combining all its Philadelphia TV and radio entities that carry news - CBS3, CW57, WIP-AM, WPHT-AM, and KYW-AM - on one site.

"Since September [when the sites merged], total page views, unique visitations, and time on site are significantly up," Hitchcock said.

NBC changed its site this month, and it wasn't just for money. "It's cleaner, more user-friendly, easier to navigate, more aesthetically pleasing," said Chris Blackman, NBC10 News vice president.

"If anything," Blackman said, "I think our website enhances our ratings. . . . We're all about connecting with our viewers. We see the website as one other way to do that, solicit opinions, generate discussion, get story ideas."

Advertisers like TV websites, too. "Cross or multiplatform opportunities are increasing in importance," Shimkus said. "Most advertisers and agencies recognize that media fragmentation continues to grow, and that additional platforms or channels are required to reach today's consumer."

According to comScore Inc., which measures online activity, the four major TV-station websites are among the top five in the region. In February, 6ABC.com and CBSphilly.com each had an estimated 13 million page views, an important metric by which advertising is sold. NBCphiladelphia.com had 11 million views, and Myfoxphilly.com had 5 million. Philly.com, owned by Philadelphia Media Networks, publisher of The Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News, had more than the four stations combined. (Data may vary depending on the method by which page views are counted.)

In their search for advertisers, TV stations are offering more than website packages.

CBS's Talk Philly, launched in September 2009, joined NBC10's The 10 Show (which airs at 11 a.m.), and Fox29's Good Day Philadelphia, in providing sponsorship opportunities within the show that media buyers can obtain either separately or as part of a package including traditional commercials. One recent episode of Talk Philly, for instance, had physicians from the Einstein Health Care Network, which paid a promotional fee, discussing colorectal cancer.

News programs, in which stations can sell all the ad time themselves rather than splitting with syndicators or networks, are also expanding. Fox29 and CBS10 have both backed their morning news show to 4:30 a.m., and 6ABC, rather than running something syndicated when The Oprah Winfrey Show bows out in September, plans a brand new local news show at 4 p.m.

NBC10 has gone CBS3 and 6ABC one better, establishing a separate station that broadcasts 24 hours a day on Channel 10.2 (248 on Comcast, 460 on FiOS). It premiered Oct. 25 and mostly provides original local shows, including a one-hour newscast at 7 p.m.

Shimkus has a caveat for local broadcasters. Just as NBC pushed viewers to cable, in search of quality scripted programs, last year when it moved Jay Leno to 10 p.m., he said: "The continual expansion of local news into more and more time periods could have a damaging effect on stations over the long haul," as viewers seek more entertaining fare elsewhere.

Fox29 may have made the most noticeable change since TV tanked in 2009. Last year, it introduced an entirely new and somewhat controversial format for its 10 p.m. news.

The screen has more the appearance of a cable news show, with one box in the corner telling what stories are coming up, a printed crawl across the bottom, and frequent use of split screen.

The format is less static, emphasizing longer stories, which Fox29 can do with its full hour. The other stations have 35 minutes at 11 p.m.

Like cable, the newscast includes lots of opinion, as anchors Thomas Drayton and Lauren Cohn express themselves and grill their own reporters, outside commentators, and newsmakers about stories, frequently fretting that the government is operating inappropriately.

"There's an appetite for that type of coverage," said Paolini, who came to the station in fall, 2009 and said he decided something needed to be changed in light of the protracted decline in local news ratings. Since the changes, the station said, Fox29 has had modest increases in the 18- to 49-year-old demographic that advertisers crave.

Which brings us back to helicopters. In January, CBS3 joined NBC10 and Fox29 in their Local News Service co-operative, which Blackman described as a "quasi-independent" outfit, with staff and resources from all member stations that responds to their requests and also sets its own agenda.

It covers scheduled events, and, sometimes, breaking news, using one reporter instead of three, cutting costs and allowing each station to spend more time on bigger things. It also operates what used to be the CBS3 helicopter, providing aerial shots to all three stations.

"I've been thrilled with how it has been working," Blackman said. When there was a gas explosion in the Tacony section of the city Jan. 18, "LNS got the definite, actual moment that the blast occurred. That video went all over the country."

Viewers, reporters, and executives alike all know that, in good times and bad, no matter how many bells stations ring or whistles they blow, nothing beats a big blast on the TV news.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

TV Ad Spending Led The Rising Tide Last Year

MediaPost Blogs Research Briefs
by Jack Loechner, Monday, March 21, 2011, 8:15 AM

According to a recent report from Kantar Media, total advertising expenditures increased 6.5% in 2010 and finished the year at $131.1 billion. Ad spending during the fourth quarter of 2010 was up 7.0% versus last year, propelled by the long-tail of small advertisers outside the Top 1000.
Ad expenditure highlights include:
Spot TV expenditures jumped 24.2% in 2010. Spanish Language TV spending rose 10.7%, assisted by the World Cup event. Higher sell out levels helped lift Cable TV expenditures by 9.8% and healthy demand from CPG marketers and credit card companies pushed Network TV spending ahead by 5.3%.

Internet display advertising increased 9.9% compared to the prior year, the second largest growth rate among media sectors. Outdoor advertising was close behind with a gain of 9.6%.

National Spot Radio brought in 18.6% more ad dollars versus 2009 and Local Radio achieved a 4.9% increase. For each of these, higher spending was driven by the financial service, media and auto dealer categories.

Expenditures in Consumer Magazines were up 3.3% while National Newspapers rose 2.7%, primarily due to publishing expansion at the Wall Street Journal. Ad spending in Local Newspapers sank 4.6% versus a year ago despite a small uptick in the volume of space sold. Local Newspaper spending has now declined for 21 consecutive quarters.

Spending among the ten largest advertisers in 2010 reached $16,345.8 million, a 3.7% increase compared to last year. Among the Top 100 marketers, a diversified group accounting for close to one-half of all measured ad expenditures, investments climbed 8.8%:

•Procter & Gamble was the top advertiser with spending of $3,123.9 million, up 17.7% compared to a year ago
•L'Oreal posted the largest rate of increase, up 30.6% to $1,112.4 million
•Ford Motor upped its total ad budgets by 11.1% to $1,132.2 million
•General Motors reduced spending slightly, down 1.3% to $2,130.7 million
•AT&T raised expenditures by 12.1%, to $2,092.8 million
•Verizon Communications trimmed ad spending 15.2% to $1,823.2 million
•Pfizer was down 11.7% to $1,228.7 million
•Johnson & Johnson reported down 7.5% to $1,139.7 million
Expenditures for the ten largest advertising categories increased 6.5% and totaled $74,125.1 million:

•Automotive was the leading category in both dollar volume and growth rate, finishing 2010 at $13,026.0 million, up 19.8%. Category spending grew almost twice as fast as new vehicle sales (19.8% versus 11.1%)
•Telecom was the second largest category with 2010 budgets rising 4.0% to $8,751.5 million
•Expenditures for Personal Care Products were up 11.7% to $6,161.0 million Food & Candy category rose 7.1% to $6,672.3 million
•Financial Services increased 6.0% to $7,689.7 million
•Direct Response budgets fell by 5.8% to $6,143.5 million
•Pharmaceutical expenditures dropped 8.2% to $4,327.8 million, the lowest dollar amount for this category since 2003
Branded Entertainment within network prime time and late night programming identifies brand appearances and measures their duration and attributes. Given the short length of many brand appearances, duration is a more relevant metric than a count of occurrences, says the report:

•In the fourth quarter of 2010, an average hour of monitored prime time network programming contained six minutes, fifty seven seconds (6:57) of in-show Brand Appearances and 14:50 of network commercial messages. The combined total of 21:47 of marketing content represents 36% of a prime-time hour
•Unscripted reality programming had an average of 14:19 per hour of Brand Appearances as compared to just 4:50 per hour for scripted programs such as sitcoms and dramas
•Late night network talk shows had an average of 10:31 per hour. The combined load of Brand Appearances and network ad messages in these late night shows was 25:22 per hour, or 42% of total content time

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Broadcast Losing Ground, Cable Gains

MediaDailyNews
by Wayne Friedman
March 24, 2011

Broadcast ratings erosion continues to tug at the big networks -- down double-digit percentages, while cable networks are up slightly -- through roughly three-quarters of the 2010-2011 TV season.

Fox is again the leader among the big four broadcast networks in the key 18-49 audience -- making a rapid improvement from its disastrous start in the fall, when it was down double-digit percentages versus a year ago.

This data comes from Turner Research via Nielsen, looking at the broadest measure of TV viewing -- live program plus seven days of time-shifted viewing -- from September 20, 2010 through March 20, 2011.

Fox is averaging around 4.6 million adult 18-49 viewers, now down 6%; CBS is at 3.9 million, off 10%; ABC is at 3.202 also, losing 10%; and NBC is right behind ABC at 3.198, off 17%.

Fox benefited from the return of "American Idol" in the first quarter of 2011. It was, in fact, the only broadcast network to see gains among 18-49 viewers in the period versus the first quarter of a year ago -- up 3% to average 5.8 million in 18-49 viewers. A year ago, NBC aired the Vancouver Winter Olympics in February, which took viewers away from all other networks.

CBS was in second place in the first quarter of 2011, at 3.7 million, down 19% -- perhaps somewhat hurt from fewer gross rating points, given the lack of original episodes of its big-rated comedy "Two and a Half Men." ABC was behind CBS at 2.97 million, down 12% during the first quarter.

NBC lost much without the Olympics, down 35% to 2.7 million. But even taking the Olympics out of the equation, NBC was down 11%.

Overall, the picture isn't a winning one for the broadcast networks. Season-to-date, the big four networks are down 11% in 18-49 viewers (to 13.5 million) and off 16% in the first quarter 2011 (to 13.4 million).

Meanwhile, ad-supported cable is up 3% to a collective 18.5 rating among 18-49 viewers during the period. A year ago -- for the season -- ad-supported cable was down 1% at a 17.7 combined 18-49 viewer rating versus 2009 for the season.

The top-rated original cable series in the first quarter: MTV's "Jersey Shore," at 9.04 million viewers; followed by History's "Pawn Stars," at 7.62 million; History's "American Pickers," at 6.52 million; USA Network's "Royal Pains," with 5.47 million; BET's "The Game," at 5.31 million; and USA's "White Collar," with 4.88 million.

Local TV Ads Surge Back In '10

MediaDailyNews
6 hours ago
by Wayne Friedman

Confirming many reports of a strong comeback, local broadcast stations had a big 23.5% rise in 2010 advertising revenue versus the previous year.

Estimates from the TV stations' advertising group TVB, from data supplied by Kantar Media, said local broadcast TV rose to $15.6 billion. TV stations, however, are still down versus the $20 billion advertising totals of a few years ago.

National broadcast networks continue to have the greatest share of all TV ad dollars, gaining 5.7% in 2010 to $24.97 billion. Closing in on national broadcasters are national cable networks, which added 10.2% to $21.3 billion for the year.

Syndication TV slipped in 2010 -- 2.8%, to $4.1 billion -- partly reflecting lower-priced upfront deals set in 2009, in the midst of a weak ad market and a crushing economic recession.

As the economy improved, syndication did as well, recovering in the fourth quarter of 2010 -- the start of a new broadcast season -- gaining 14.7% to $1.2 billion versus the same period the year before.

The biggest improving national and local ad category was automotive advertisers -- rocketing up 53.7% to $2.6 billion. The second-biggest category, communications/telecommunications, was 14.7% higher to $1.5 billion. Restaurants were up 8.1% to $1.2 billion; political advertising had an eye-popping 598.8% gain to $763 million; and financial services grew 54.3% to $680 million.

The big single advertiser -- after political advertising -- was Chrysler Group LLC, up 66.0% to $371.3 million. AT&T improved 41.2% to $334.8 million; Ford Motor Dealers Association gained 45.2% to $324.5 million; and Toyota Motor Dealers Association was 55.2% higher to $313.2 million.