Enforcement Bureau looks at new weapons to go after pirates.

INSIDERADIO
April 20, 2015

 

New FCC Enforcement Bureau chief Travis LeBlanc is known as a tough cookie, a hard-nosed prosecutor who has brought big cases against large corporations. One area where he plans to flex his muscle is on eradicating pirate radio, believing that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. The problem with pirate radio enforcement right now, according to LeBlanc, is it has become a "wack-a-mole" scenario. Shut them down here and they pop up over there. Case in point: LeBlanc’s office last week issued a $20,000 fine against a New York pirate who, over the last three years, received several notices of unauthorized operation. Yet he kept showing up somewhere else. "I’m looking at the effectiveness of our enforcement," LeBlanc told broadcasters at the NAB Show. He said he intends to go beyond traditional enforcement means like Notices of Apparent Liability, forfeitures, citations and seizures. "Having a regime that solely relies on that will not ultimately be as effective," LeBlanc said. "I am thinking about how we can prevent pirates from getting on the air." LeBlanc believes the Bureau needs to implement the type of policy that is decisive and effective. He told broadcasters that he’s in discussions with the National Association of Broadcasters, his own bureau and the chiefs of other bureaus about policy options "that remove the incentives for pirates to go on air." He said he plans to work with broadcasters on the issue. "We want to get to a world where there are no pirates on the airwaves," LeBlanc said.

In a slow quarter, first read shows radio outperformed TV and print in local markets. The radio industry’s official report on first quarter won’t be released by the Radio Advertising Bureau for several weeks, but the just-released Standard Media Index estimates total radio revenue slipped 1% during the first three months of the year. One reason may be automotive advertising, which SMI says "remains soft" in the early going of 2015. Across all media it says auto category ad spending was down 3% compared to last year. On the flipside, business services and recruitment advertising was the fastest-growing segment, up 17%. Television and print were both weaker than radio: TV billings dropped 6% and newspapers were down 2% in first quarter. Out of home was the local market winner, although its revenues rose by a mere 1%. Overall ad market spending rose by 1% for the quarter year-over-year. Several radio managers have said revenue has been swinging between up 1% and down 1% so far this year. SMI data seems to reflect that on a wider scale. Its snapshot is based on data that captures 80% of total U.S. ad agency spending.

Traditional Television Viewing Continues To Grow

Commentary

by Steve Sternberg, Yesterday, 9:15 AM 

The headline of this article is not really accurate, but many will just see the headline, so I’m getting a lot of people to get the message I want them to get. It’s still more accurate than many of the articles and columns proclaiming the decline of television viewing that always surface right before (and during) the upfront buyng/selling season.

 

I’ve had many debates with my editor friends at both print and online outlets about their responsibility reporting dubious research claims as “fact.” 

But this is really only marginally a press problem.  As long as they have a credible source, and present the data sourced and quoted, they’re off the hook -- regarding the content of the story at least.  Working under daily deadlines, they have neither the time nor the resources to vet every claim.

They simply report what people say. I would not want the editors of MediaPost to question every research-based claim I make.  If someone has a problem with it, let them say so in the comments section, or write their own article. 

 

I do think, however, that reporters who have been covering this business for years shouldn’t pretend they know nothing about these topics.  When they do use some of these mediocre or agenda-based research studies, they should at least quote a more objective source within the same story (I, and several other research executives I know, would gladly offer our services in this regard).

Several years ago, my colleague, Sharianne Brill and I were co-chairs of the Council For Research Excellence’s Media Consumption and Engagement Committee. 

Along with some of the best research minds in the business (buyers, sellers, and advertisers) we helped develop the landmark Video Consumer Mapping Study. 

 

There were two tidbits that came out of this study that did not receive much press.  First, when asked about their media behavior, people dramatically overstate their online usage and understate their TV usage.

 

I recall after the study we asked the participants about their media behavior.  One person was asked how much time she spends on her smartphone. She thought it was at least two to three hours a day.  It was actually about 20 minutes.  And this was someone who knew we had just observed her actual media usage. People simply have no real idea about how much time per day they spend using different media devices.

 

The second point, which came as a surprise to me, was that Nielsen data for broad usage levels (total people, adults 18-49) was remarkably similar to the results of the observational data. This started to change as the demo groups got smaller, but for the broad categories it was spot on. 

 

I only bring this up because when it comes to determining whether TV viewing is shifting, I much prefer to rely on Nielsen data and its Total Audience Report than studies done by companies that benefit from people thinking TV viewing is declining, while alternate sources are growing unabated.

 

In reality, television viewing is down by 3% from last year, while video viewing on Internet, smartphone, and multimedia devices combined is up by 45%.  Misleading statistics considering their vastly different starting points. A more telling statistic is that 91% of all video viewing is still to traditional TV (and more than 90% of that is live viewing).

 

Even among the under-25 crowd, more than 80% of viewing is still to traditional television.

Another way to look at it is that viewers spend nearly 5 ½ hours per day watching television, compared to about 25 minutes per day watching video on the Internet and smartphones combined.

 

Television viewing, while not immune to the many other sources available to consumers, is still dominant and quite healthy thank you.

 

What’s the bottom line here?  When seeing headlines proclaiming or predicting the downfall of traditional television, read the entire article and note the source.

Senators Seek To Block Comcast's Merger With Time Warner

by Wendy Davis @wendyndavis, 6 hours ago

Comcast's proposed $45.2 billion takeover of Time Warner Cable would result in “higher prices, fewer choices, and poorer quality services,” a coalition of senators says in a letter to the Federal Communications Commission and Department of Justice.
The lawmakers are asking regulators to block the deal, arguing that it would leave Comcast with too much power over broadband and other forms of communication.

“With 57 percent of the broadband Internet market and 30 percent of the cable market, Comcast-TWC would have an ability to defeat competing TV and Internet companies and stifle American innovation across the industry,” states the letter, sent today and signed by Sens. Al Franken (D-Minn), Bernard Sanders (I-Vt.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).

They add that Comcast's ownership of NBCUniversal gives the company “incentives and means by which to extract higher prices from other multichannel video programming distributors and prioritize its own programming over that of competitors.”

Comcast says that the deal will result in better video and broadband for consumers. The company says its broadband connections are 25% faster than Time Warner's, and that it has twice as much video on demand as Time Warner.
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The company also says that the deal won't reduce competition, given that the two companies don't currently overlap. Comcast also says that the deal will only leave it with 30 million of the 87 million U.S. broadband subscriptions.

The lawmakers estimate that Comcast will control 57% of U.S. broadband connections is based on the FCC's new definition of broadband as Internet speeds of at least 25 Mbps. Comcast's numbers come from a report by the Leichtman Research Group, which looked at broadband subscribers in the U.S. at the end of last year, before the FCC revised the definition upward.

The letter from Capitol Hill comes just days after reports surfaced that staff at the Justice Department are leaning toward opposing the merger. Comcast reportedly is slated to meet this week with officials from the DOJ, in hopes of salvaging the merger.

One concern raised by opponents of the deal is that Comcast could use its broadband footprint to harm online video companies. Writing this week in Medium, broadband policy expert Susan Crawford says that the deal would provide Comcast with “innumerable opportunities to squeeze online companies.”

She adds: “Every element of the Comcast network provides an opportunity for control and rent-seeking... Comcast can use data caps and other pricing mechanisms to make life miserable for online businesses that aren’t willing to play along.”

Comcast currently imposes data caps in some markets, starting at 300 GB per month, with each additional 50 GB costing an extra $10.

Smith reaffirms radio’s role in NAB keynote

INSIDERADIO

4/14-16/2015
 

Gordon Smith used the occasion of his fifth anniversary as president of the National Association of Broadcasters to declare broadcast radio and television "more important today than they have ever been," despite a cavalcade of technology changes that have occurred since he first spoke at the NAB Show in 2010. "While citizens may be feeling bombarded by so much information and confused about how to distill it — confused about finding the truth — broadcasting is giving our communities coherence," Smith said during a convention-opening keynote Monday in Las Vegas. He called broadcast radio and television "the glue that keeps us together." But broadcasters need to keep reminding policymakers of broadcasting’s "immense value to their communities," Smith warned. For radio, the message includes ensuring new royalty rates "will fairly compensate artists while encouraging more radio stations to stream" and fighting back renewed efforts in Congress to enact performance royalty legislation. Smith’s message came on the same day a bill was introduced in Congress during a high-profile media event in New York, where co-sponsors were surrounded by Elvis Costello, Roseanne Cash, Cyndi Lauper and dozens of other musicians. Smith also spoke about working towards "common-sense ownership rules that reflect today’s media landscape." He talked up NextRadio, which NAB Labs played a key role in, calling it part of "radio’s exciting evolution," and pledged further support. He predicted as some digital platforms "come and go like so many endangered species — but broadcasting will always be there, when all else fails" and pointed to this year’s NAB Show as "a tangible demonstration of how broadcasters are innovating."

 

Nielsen ready to launch streaming audio measurement service. Radio’s long and winding road to total audience measurement is nearly over. After a seven-month delay, Nielsen is about to reveal its digital audience measurement service. "The official launch is coming very soon," Nielsen SVP of digital Jeff Wender said at the NAB Show yesterday. "The technology is there and we have the infrastructure in place." Along with providing a more complete picture of a station’s audience, the new product will track on demand audio, podcasting and other forms of digital audio content produced by Nielsen clients. The system employs the same MRC-accredited methodology Nielsen has been using to measure online video consumption. Clients place measurement software in the media player of their streaming app or web browser, which captures listening data at the closest point to the actual consumption. Four basic metrics will be included in the streaming audience reports: Reach (number of listeners, sessions and quarter hours); Demographics (gender and age by daypart), Duration (Time Spent Listening) and Location (metro or DMA). Several of the largest streaming backbone providers, including Triton Digital and Wide Orbit, have integrated the software into the media players used by thousands of radio stations. A number of broadcasters are receiving preview data. "We built this new software so we get the best understanding of who is consuming the content," Wender said. "We can capture all the juicy

Under the hood of Nielsen’s new digital audio measurement service. Nielsen’s new streaming audio measurement service will provide an alternative to Triton Digital’s Webcast Metrics, which has long served as the industry scorecard. Nielsen’s new product will provide more demographic data than Triton, without relying on clients to collect the data themselves. It instead will tap technology widely used in the digital display and video advertising worlds. When a user launches a stream, Nielsen measurement software is automatically activated and begins collecting the necessary info: the station’s unique identifier, the length of the listening session and timestamps. It also detects an ID number unique to each listener, a technology first developed by Apple and Google for mobile advertising. That ID or key is sent to Facebook, which has a partnership with Nielsen and stores the same keys for its own user base. Facebook then matches the audience keys against its database and reports back to Nielsen the demographics of the streaming audience in aggregate form so individual users can’t be identified. To provide checks and balances, Nielsen will incorporate proprietary data from an internal calibration panel. After a lack of industry consensus about how digital audio data should be reported in the Mediaocean and Strata buying systems used by agencies, Nielsen has now clarified how it will differentiate between the different ad models used by webcasters. For streams that simulcast the same content and ads as their on-air broadcast, Nielsen will report their digital and on air listening – both separately and combined. Audience metrics for stations doing digital ad insertion won’t be combined and will be displayed in a separate tab. "Depending on the different type of advertising system that you put in place, we’ll measure both and make that information available," Nielsen SVP of digital Jeff Wender said.

Study: Radio prevails in connected car.

 

AM/FM radio remains the primary entertainment option in the car, where roughly half of all radio listening takes place, while connected sources like internet radio are secondary. So says new data from Strategy Analytics presented at the NAB Show. Eight in ten (79%) survey respondents called broadcast radio a "must have" in their car, far and away the top entertainment product of eight measured. Interest in having a CD player is "falling off rapidly"............

 

 

.........the new report says, in favor of music consumed on iPods and smartphones. While radio still rules the road, 58% of U.S. smartphone owners report using apps while driving and there is a growing desire for connected cars that make it easier to use them on the road. Nearly four in ten (37%) consider access to smartphones apps through the vehicle’s interface a "must have" feature for their next car. More entertainment options aren’t turning listeners away from broadcast radio, the data shows. For instance, 79% of consumers who listen to CD players and 76% that listen to internet radio in the car also listen daily to AM/FM radio. "The very users who want smartphone access in the car are the biggest radio users," Lanctot said. The study also uncovered a strong appetite for local information services in the car. Seven in ten daily radio users said they are very interested in real time traffic available through their car’s infotainment system, while 65% want info.

Colorado Gets All-Pot Station. Southern Colorado Radio has launched "K-High 1580." It’s the first station whose programming is dedicated to marijuana around the clock. SCR has struck a three-year lease deal with an option to buy Pilgrim Communications’ KHIG, which had been "Fox Sports Radio 1580" prior to Monday’s switch. Most broadcasters have shied away from taking medical marijuana dispensary advertising to date, fearing their federally-licensed stations could be in jeopardy. But SCR general manager Mike Knar tells the Colorado Springs Gazette that he’s signed on six local dispensaries as advertisers and billings are growing faster than expected. "Most people don’t get a response like this on radio, let alone for an AM station," he says. KHIG’s morning drive is called "Wake and Bake" followed by "High Noon" in middays and "High Drive" in afternoon drive.
 

 

SPECIAL EDITION: EXPANDED NAB SHOW COVERAGE ABOVE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Will TV Upfront Money Start Flowing To Other Times Of The Year?

A media critique by Wayne Friedman Wednesday, April 15, 2015 Many upfront connoisseurs are already saying traditional TV upfronts will probably show a flat to decreasing dollar volume.   But don’t think for a minute those exact dollars will find their way to digital video coffers. Executives do believe traditional video dollars will  be moving -- at some point. Digital video advertising piece will come to $7.7 billion in 2015, according to eMarketer.   Supply and demand issues are still a problem with the big TV networks, especially when it comes to their ability to scale up big quantities of viewers. But looking at the NewFronts as an alternative may be folly. Instead, look for ongoing deals made through the year -- in the traditional/digital TV scatter market; calendar year TV deals; or longer branded entertainment TV/digital deals. Some call that a success.   For over a decade many have predicted the upfront selling process would go away.  Now we have TV marketers increasingly holding on to their ad  dollars to spend them not only in the traditional TV scatter markets, but with new digital TV services throughout the year. Consider future TV upfronts like a 30-year-old home roof -- one with slow drips.

TV Viewership Declines Across All Demos

 

• by Wayne Friedman, April 14, 2015, 3:44 PM

Traditional viewership for long-form video content, such as movies and television on a TV screen, has declined over the past year -- and not just with young viewers.

 

In a new survey, Accenture says there was a 13% drop worldwide and an 11% decline in the United States. Even looking at live TV viewing -- specifically at sports programming -- there have been cutbacks in usages on the traditional TV screen, 10% globally and 9% in the U.S.

 

Virtually all age brackets witnessed declines worldwide. Those 55 and older have seen a 6% cutback for movie/TV show content on the big screen and a 1% drop in sports programming. That said, younger viewers -- 14- to-17-year-olds -- have seen a steeper declines, down 33% for movies/TV shows worldwide and 26% for sports TV content.

 

Eighteen- to-34-year-old viewers have pulled back 14% for movies/TV and 12% for sports programming; those 35-to-54 gave up movies/TV by 11% and for sports, 9%.

 

Accenture says 89% of consumers watch long-form video on connected devices. But this isn’t entirely good news. More than half -- 51% -- say watching online video was a poor experience due to Internet services. Some 42% complained of too much advertising and 33% about buffering of video -- the time it takes for video to start playing. Thirty-three percent said there was a loss of sound or distortions during play.

 

New TV service entrants will not necessarily have an advantage over traditional TV players.

“New entrants, regardless of their brand, will have to prove their service quality to consumers to capture significant market share,” stated Gavin Mann, Accenture’s global broadcast industry lead. Accenture says new TV brands, like Apple, Netflix and Google, scored significantly lower than traditional broadcasters.

 

Accenture says research was conducted online in October and November 2014, with 24,000 consumers in 24 countries.

 

Dr. Philip Jay LeNoble of Executive Decision Systems Inc. of Littleton, Colorado noticed the research did indicate that while demographics moved away from traditional screens, TV was still watched on alternative connected devices albeit the there were problems with the transmission.

The outlook for spot TV: Slow growth

  Media economy

The next few years will bring minimal gains in local TV spending

By Bill Cromwell

April 7, 2015   

One bright spot: The 2016 Summer Olympics will lift spot revenues but those gains will be offset by declines elsewhere.

Over the next three years, the U.S. media economy will grow at an average rate of at least 3.6 percent per year, according to the latest forecast from ZenithOptimedia, a Publicis Groupe agency.

But one area that will see much slower growth is spot television.

Spot has only just rebounded from the depths of the recession, when spending plummeted as local and national businesses pulled back on their commitments.

ZenithOptimedia is predicting modest growth for the medium over the next three years. This year will be up 1.5 percent, next year will rise 3 percent, and in 2017 spending will be flat.
By comparison, total media economy spending is forecast to rise 3.7 percent this year, 4.1 percent next year, and 3.6 percent in 2017.

“In 2015, local television dollars will see a slight uptick, although at a less robust growth rate without political spending in the marketplace,” notes the report.

Even with the biannual gains from political and Olympics, spot suffered mightily during the recession, with $5 billion lost from 2007 to 2009. Last year was the first time since 2007 that spending topped $23.6 billion, hitting $24.4 billion.

By 2017, ZenithOptimedia predicts, it will grow to an all-time high of $25.5 billion.

The spot TV forecast

Political will be the key to most of the gains over the next three years, of course.
ZenithOptimedia says the robust growth of political action committees, third parties that spend in support of candidates or ballot initiatives, could lead to some political dollars being spent in fourth quarter of this year, in anticipation of the 2016 elections.

That will give the end of 2015 a lift.
And analysts do expect record political spending on next year’s presidential election, with spot TV accounting for the biggest chunk.

Plus, Summer Olympics in 2016 will also bring in money to spot TV.

But those gains will be offset by more modest increases for the top spot TV spending categories, such as retail and automotive.

Both have started this year slowly, with retail suffering from a funk that began last year with sales down for many of the major department and discount stores.

They’ve been pulling back on advertising across a range of media in response to that slowdown, including spot.

Auto, meanwhile, has been experimenting more and more with local search and social media, which buyers say has cut into spot budgets for some dealers.

According to Dr. Philip Jay LeNoble CEO Executive Decision Systems, Inc. of Littleton Colorado, "The only real way to visualize revenue growth and increased net profitability in local television is to employ management to concentrate in enhancing the training, development and sustaining of long-term, local-direct contract dollars." "There are little or no other options," he adds. 

U.S. TV Ad Expenditures 2010-2017 $ Millions at Current Prices
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Spot TV	20,134	20,134	22,550	23,227	24,388	24,754	25,496	25,496
Total TV	56,525	58,029	62,547	64,348	67,004	66,865	68,153	68,393
Source: ZenithOptimedia