Local Media Ad Revenues Forecast To Hit $142B In 2021, But Traditional TV Falters

• by Wayne Friedman , 11 hours ago

Total local-media advertising revenues are forecast to see growth of 4% this year to $142 billion.

Digital media is making double-digit-percentage advances and local TV is losing ground, according to BIA Advisory Services.

Total local digital ad spending is projected to be 15% higher this year to $64.7 billion, from $56.3 billion in 2020.

Local TV station ad fortunes are expected to see a reversal, sinking 14% this year to $16.2 billion. This follows a sky-high 2020 local TV advertising season, coming with record-breaking political ad dollars.

Last year, local TV stations — as a piece of the overall $18.8 billion ad take — witnessed a record $4.4 billion in political advertising.

Next year — as part of the regular boost every other year from political/Olympics advertising -- BIA projects that local TV will resume strong growth — seeing a 19% hike to $19.3 billion. Other estimates from AdImpact, a media research company, forecast that 2022 political advertising could hit another $4 billion or so in ad revenue for TV stations.

Although traditional TV platforms will decline this year, local TV stations’ digital efforts will make some gains — 7% more to $1.5 billion (from $1.4 billion in 2020) and then 13% higher in 2022 to $1.7 billion. In addition, BIA says local OTT advertising revenue will be 16% higher this year.

Local radio will see a 13% hike to $11.7 billion this year (from $10.4 billion in 2020) and 5% more to $12.3 billion in 2022. Radio’s owned local digital platforms will grow 4% this year to $940 million (from $900 million in 2020), rising 11% to $1.04 billion in 2022

Next year, total local media will again spike higher — 10% to $157.1 billion — due to local TV and higher expected political advertising, and 3% more to $162.1 billion in 2023.

This year, all traditional media — TV, radio, print, outdoor — will bring in $77.7 million in revenue, resulting in a 54% share against digital media’s 46% share. By 2023, digital media will climb to a top share level of 51% over traditional media.

BIA says its local digital media estimates are inclusive of all digital platforms — new, digital-first media businesses, as well as traditional media-owned digital properties.