Wednesday, June 16, 2010

SNL Kagan Forecasts Ad Recovery

by Wayne Friedman June 16, 2010

After crushing double-digit percentage declines in advertising a year ago, TV stations' ad growth will rocket up double-digit increases this year. Radio stations will also point upwards, but less than half the rate of TV.
SNL Kagan, the Charlottesville, VA-based media researcher, says TV stations will climb 14.3% in 2010 to $19.8 billion -- rising from $17.3 billion in 2009, the lowest TV ad revenue total in 15 years.
Adding in new retransmission fees, total TV station revenue is expected to grow to $20.9 billion in 2010 and $25.4 billion by 2016.
Radio will also make gains -- some 6.4% to $17.1 billion. This boost follows a drop of 17.7% to $16.0 billion in 2009. Advertising revenue from online businesses will push up total revenue for radio. SNL Kagan says radio stations will climb 15% to $552million. In six years, radio will grow to $19.8 billion.
The media company says investors have noticed the major progress in ad growth. This year, radio station stocks are up 36%, and TV stocks are 26% higher, year-to-date.
"The bounce-back in ad revenues, combined with other positive trends, such as growing digital dollars, have reassured investors," stated Robin Flynn, senior analyst with SNL Kagan

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