Local TV Political Ad Spend Is Well Below Expected Levels

• by Wayne Friedman, Yesterday, 2:41 PM

Political advertising for TV station groups continue to yield lower-than-expected results.

Advertising revenue sank 5% for the 17 largest TV station groups in October versus the same results a year ago, per Pivotal Research Group analysis of Advertising Analytics, which aggregates and tracks political ad bookings in real-time.

“The data we have reviewed indicates the year will end well below levels which most expected at the beginning of this election cycle,” says Brian Wieser, senior research analyst, Pivotal Research Group.

Many media analysts cite key reasons including lower-than-predicted political advertising spending by candidates running for president. Looking at those specific groups for October spending, ABC was up 22%, with CBS 4% higher; Fox down 21%; and NBC showing almost double gains -- 90% higher.

Among major non-network groups, Sinclair improved 19%, while Tegna was down 33%; Tribune added 2%; Meredith was off 9%; and Media General lost 34%. The 17 groups include ABC, CBS, Cox, EW Scripps, Fox, Graham Media Group, Gray, Hearst, Media General, Meredith, NBC, Nexstar, Raycom, Sinclair, Sunbeam, Tegna and Tribune.

Total year-to-date bookings are up by 12% over the same period in 2014. During that non-presidential election year, spending for local TV stations/local cable amounted to $2.3 billion. For 2012 -- the last presidential election year -- $2.6 billion was generated from political advertising, according to Magna Global.

Last month, Kantar Media/CMAG says TV stations will now get $2.8 billion for political advertising -- down $500 million from its $3.3 billion estimate made in July 2015.

Wieser says October represents well over half of political ad spending for TV stations. These spending levels are likely to reflect full fourth-quarter trends for each of these groups.