Even though this report was published earlier, it still has prominence re: local-direct advertisers. Local-direct is still the money maker for linear TV stations! Share this with your local-direct clients. Philip Jay LeNoble,Ph.D.

COMMENTARY

National TV Ad Revenue Forecast To Sink 2.7% In 2024

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, June 13, 2024

Linear national TV advertising revenue from broadcast and cable TV networks will sink 2.7% to $27.5 billion this year -- despite strong Summer Olympic and political advertising spending, according to estimates by MoffettNathanson Research.

Taking out the Olympics resulted in a 7% decline to $26.3 billion.

Overall, cable TV networks will sink 9% to $14.6 billion with broadcast networks slightly higher -- up 2% to $12.9 billion.

NBC, which will see a boost from the Paris Olympics, will see 23% growth this year to $5.6 billion.

CBS, which aired the Super Bowl this year, will inch up 1% to $3.4 billion.

ABC will sink 8% to $1.8 billion and Fox, which had the Super Bowl in 2023, will decline 25% to $2.1 billion.

Looking at cable networks, Walt Disney’s cable channels will fare the best -- up 4% to $3.7 billion.

Fox's cable channels will be flat at $1.3 billion, while NBCUniversal will be down 7% to $2.4 billion.

Warner Bros Discovery will see a 9% increase to $5.2 billion, and Paramount will sink 19% to $1.5 billion.

The following year -- without the Olympics and heavy political advertising -- is forecast to see more dire results, with overall national TV down 12% (falling 8% after the Olympics).

Total broadcast networks' advertising revenues are estimated to sink 15% (7%, ex-Olympics), while cable networks will see another 9% decline (8%, ex-Olympics).

Michael Nathanson, media analyst/co-founder of MoffettNathanson Research, writes: “We continue to expect 2024 and 2025 national TV advertising to be under pressure due to secular challenges, even with easier comparisons last year, especially at cable networks.