COMMENTARY

AVOD's Rocketing Future Growth - But With Higher Subscriber Fees Attached?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 5 hours ago

Despite the major growth of so-called advertising video-on-demand (AVOD) platforms, including those free connected TV (CTV) channels -- don't think for a minute that streaming subscription price hikes will be going away.

Far from it.

Rethink Research, an forecasting/consulting company focused on technology, estimates that by 2029 subscription revenue will make up half of revenues on those platforms. 

But it says we need to consider how those bigger streaming platforms -- those with hybrid subscription fee/limited advertising -- fit into that mix. 

Every major streaming platform -- including Amazon Prime Video, Netflix, Disney+, Max, Hulu, Paramount+ and Peacock -- not only has those new or expanding ad-option deals for consumers, but will adjust its consumer/business model in how they will need to generate future revenue.

The math, says Rethink, is obvious. By 2029, it predicts those consumers using a free CTV/streaming platform -- with advertising -- will  generate just “$8 on average”, with paid subscribers able to “generate $39.” I am guessing this data is the total average revenue per user measure (ARPU), which factors in consumer fees and advertising.

This all suggests that those fast-growing FAST channels (Free Advertising-Supported Television) might need to change their name over the next few years.

Does this mean the likes of Tubi, Pluto, Roku Channel -- among seemingly hundreds of other channels -- will begin to charging a small but alarming fee to access that content?

It sounds crazy. Still, it wasn’t that long after NBCUniversal started Peacock, with a free, no-subscription-fee/advertising option, that it abandoned the whole idea, moving to where all its product options have some subscription fees.

These advertising video-on-demand platform are projected to bring in over $546 billion in revenue over the next five years, says Rethink. 

It seems that advertisers and increasingly consumers will share as major backers of this business -- perhaps in ways we might think are unimaginable.