COMMENTARY

TV, Marketing Evolving -- So Why Do We Still Have Upfronts?

• by Maarten Albarda , Featured Contributor, March 31, 2023

The always smart and insightful Brian Wieser published an update this week on whether or not TV as we know it is dead or dying. Spoiler (from his article): It is not.

What has happened is that TV, like everything else, has evolved. I think we are witnessing the (slow) death of linear TV as we knew it. I include cable in this assessment as well. According to eMarketer, about 95 million Americans will have cut the cord in 2023. That is about one third of the total population, and an impressive statistic. That percentage goes up significantly if you look at a younger demographic in large population centers (with good internet).

According to the same eMarketer data, more households in the U.S. will NOT have a cable subscription this year, versus those that do (68.7 million households do not, while 62.8 million do). But these non-cable households are still watching TV. Or perhaps more accurately, “evolved TV” (let’s see if we can make ETV a thing!).

For advertisers, the combination of sound and vision is still the most powerful means to deliver a message. Of course the challenge is that buying eyeballs has become an incredibly fragmented “apples and oranges” process. There are bundled offerings across a combination of linear, cable, streaming, social media, etc. from just about everyone, while these bundles do not come with easily measured or easily comparable data to understand who you are reaching, and how often. Many offerings include walled gardens that make it even harder to compare. Many offer their own, unique (and not at all bad) metrics on top of standards like impressions or viewability.

Add to these factors the fact that many advertisers have eschewed annual plans and have switched to an always-on or continuous-plan strategy. The annual plan, with a beginning, middle and end throughout the calendar or fiscal year, was always an artificial marketing construct. It makes sense that budgets are set for a specific period as they are often determined by business results over an annual or fiscal year interval. But for consumers, their interest in milk, diapers or lip gloss is not magically reset at the end of the year, prepping their mind for a new campaign in the new year.

All this leads me to my (almost) annual declaration that although TV is not dead, we must end the annual ritual that is the upfront. ETV (I am sticking with it!!) content is no longer released in two seasons, as was the case in the olden days. And with campaigns less and less planned in annual determinations, the whole concept of upfronts, newfronts, mobile fronts or any other “fronts” is wholly out of touch with how marketing works in 2023.

Does it make sense for advertisers to negotiate deals with platforms? Of course it does. But these should no longer be associated with old-timey linear TV seasons. In my mind, the basis for these negotiations should be whatever the right time period is for the advertisers, and whatever the advertisers and platform wish to bundle. Volume, share and dollars will (continue) to play a role. Platforms can (continue) to bundle what the marketer really wants with some other stuff the platform wants to sell. And both must agree on metrics that will determine if what was bought delivered what both parties agreed to. Can we finally move on?