More Declines Predicted for Newspapers

MediaDailyNews by Erik Sass, Yesterday, 4:08 PM All the trend lines for newspaper advertising are pointing down, and the latest forecast from eMarketer does nothing to dispel this gloomy picture. According to the research firm’s most recent report, total ad revenues for newspapers will decline from $22.5 billion in 2012 to $21.5 billion in 2013, $21 billion in 2014, $20.63 billion in 2015, and $20.4 billion in 2016, for a 9.5% drop over the next four years. The drop is due to continuing declines in print advertising, which eMarketer sees falling steadily from $19.1 billion this year to $16.4 billion in 2016 -- a 14.7% drop. Separately, newspapers’ digital ad revenues will continue to experience modest growth, but not enough to offset losses on the print side. Here, eMarketer sees total digital ad revenues edging up from $3.4 billion in 2012 to $4 billion in 2016, for a 17.6% increase in four years. The forecast is yet another piece of bad news for an industry under siege since the middle of the last decade. According to the Newspaper Association of America, total newspaper ad revenues -- including print and digital -- plunged from $49 billion in 2006 to $24 billion in 2011, for a 51.5% decline in just five years. The decline has continued unabated this year. Per the NAA, total newspaper ad revenues in the first half of 2012 came to $10.7 billion, down 6.7% from $11.5 billion in the same period of 2011. Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D., publisher of LeNoble's Media Sales Insights says stations and companies should look to targeted digital and mobile media to replace local newspapers.