Still Counting on the Power of Television

By STUART ELLIOTT
Published: December 6, 2010

TV or not TV? On Madison Avenue next year, leading forecasters say, that is not likely to be the question.


Peter Pereira/The Standard Times of New Bedford, via Associated Press
An analyst said TV was still gaining share of the ad market, to 40.7 percent in 2010 from 37 percent in 2005. And a even more robust growth for 2011, according to the following companies reporting forecasting for 2011:

Google Inc
Interpublic Group of Companies Incorporated
Sony Corporation
Publicis Groupe SA
CBS Corp
Logitech International SA
Intel Corp
Best Buy Company Incorporated

A major reason those forecasters are predicting that the advertising industry will recover faster from the recession than they had expected — both in the United States and globally — is the continued, strong demand among marketers for commercial time on television. That is being demonstrated, they say, in most developed markets as well as in emerging markets like China.

The robustness of the ardor for television ads is startling some forecasters, who had believed that the intensifying demand for online advertising would cut into sales for TV as it has for, say, newspapers. That does not seem to be the case, even as they point to a sharp climb in spending for Internet ads as another reason the recovery will proceed — and even gain momentum — into next year.

“The success story, perhaps surprisingly, has been television,” said Steve King, chief executive at the ZenithOptimedia media division of the Publicis Groupe.

Consumers’ embrace of technologies like digital TV, HDTV and DVRs helps keep them watching, Mr. King said, which helps keep marketers buying commercial time.

Mr. King spoke on Monday during a panel at the opening of the 38th annual UBS global media and communications conference, which is being held in Midtown Manhattan through Wednesday. His remarks were echoed by the two other panelists as they offered forecasts for how 2010 would end and what 2011 might bring.

“TV will be adding about half of all growth next year,” said a second panelist, Adam Smith, futures director at GroupM, the media unit of WPP.

Later, in an interview, Mr. Smith elaborated on why he thought that would be the case. For one thing, he said, television viewership is being propelled by people who are increasingly watching certain shows to share comments with friends and family in real time on social media like Facebook and Twitter.

That is particularly stimulating live viewing of programs, he added, “which is what is monetized” by the providers of TV content like the broadcast networks and cable channels.

A case in point is the demand for commercials during Super Bowl XLV, to be broadcast by Fox on Feb. 6. All available ad time is already sold out, and it sold out earlier than is usual, despite rates that are estimated at up to $3 million for each 30-second spot.

Even marketers that had never advertised in the previous XLIV — er, 44 — Super Bowls are buying spots, among them blue-chip brands like Best Buy and Mercedes-Benz.

“Television continues to be resilient,” said another panelist, Brian Wieser, global director for forecasting at Magna Global, part of the Mediabrands division of the Interpublic Group of Companies, even as other media like mobile and the Internet are likely to grow faster.

In fact, Mr. Wieser said, he has added a category, called pay TV, to those he tracks in producing his forecasts. The new category covers television variants like cable, satellite and Internet TV delivered by phone companies.

Mr. Wieser said he foresaw no dire effects on traditional television from the growth of what is known as over-the-top TV, which is delivery of programming through the Internet by means like the new Google TV, developed by Google, Intel, Logitech and Sony.

There could be 20 million to 25 million people watching TV that way by 2020, he added. That would be a fraction of those viewers still watching TV through cable systems, satellite or even over the air.

“Despite all the other viewing options, most people still like watching TV at home on a TV set,” said Steve Sternberg, the longtime television research analyst who writes a blog, The Sternberg Report.

As for access to TV on additional screens like PCs, tablets or smartphones, it could “enable people to sample shows they may not have had time for on traditional TV,” Mr. Sternberg wrote in an e-mail, as well as give viewers a chance to watch more episodes of the shows they typically watch on traditional TV.

The health of television as an ad medium clearly delighted another speaker at the conference.

“This is more like it,” said David F. Poltrack, chief research officer at the CBS Corporation and president of its CBS Vision unit. “After two years that have not been pleasant for any of us, things are looking up.”

Television is increasingly about “the development, nurturing and harvesting of franchise programming,” Mr. Poltrack said, that viewers will want to watch on conventional TV sets, the Internet, mobile devices, video on demand, DVDs and in syndication.

Among them, he listed series like the “CSI” shows on CBS, “Grey’s Anatomy” on ABC, “The Office” on NBC and “American Idol” on Fox.

Three drama series that CBS introduced for the 2010-11 season — “Blue Bloods,” The Defenders” and “Hawaii Five-0” — are already profitable, from their network licensing fees and international sales, Mr. Poltrack said, with additional revenue like syndication in the offing.

Even better, in Mr. Poltrack’s (CBS) eye, all three series are being produced by the CBS Television Studios division of CBS.

All the forecasters on the opening panel predicted that 2010 would end with an increase in worldwide ad spending compared with last year. Their forecasts were for an increase of 4.9 percent, from Mr. King; 5.9 percent, from Mr. Smith; and 6.9 percent, from Mr. Wieser.

They all also predicted an increase in worldwide ad spending for 2011 compared with 2010. Their forecasts were for an increase of 4.6 percent, from Mr. King; 5.4 percent, from Mr. Wieser; and 5.8 percent, from Mr. Smith.

Another reason to get out and help local-direct businesses in your DMA grow their business with your help....Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Ad Spending Is on the Rise, but Growth Rate May Slow

Advertising Age
What's the Deal? Marketers Are Going Private and Public, Buying and Selling, Focusing on Core Brands

By Bradley Johnson
Published: December 20, 2010

1. Print media defined here by Ad Age as newspapers plus magazines. For this chart, Ad Age aggregated MagnaGlobal's media segments as follows: Broadcast is TV plus radio; print is newspapers plus magazines. Magna includes mobile in internet; and cinema in out of home. More info: magnaglobal.com. Source: MagnaGlobal's 2011 Advertising Forecast (December 2010).
CHICAGO (AdAge.com) -- Marketers in 2011 will boost U.S. ad spending 2.8%, down slightly from 2010's 3.2% growth rate, according to the average of three major media-agency forecasts.

Ad Age Annual 2011
Key stats and rankings from Ad Age DataCenter reports
Worldwide ad spending will grow 5.3% in the new year, below the 5.9% growth seen in 2010, according to the average of three forecasts from Interpublic Group of Cos.' MagnaGlobal, Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia and WPP's Group M.
U.S. ad growth in 2010 turned out better than predicted. A year ago, forecasters figured 2010 U.S. ad spending would be flat or down a bit.

Forecasts for 2011 suggest moderate growth in ad spending, reflecting the economy's slow recovery.

Slow ad growth is a welcome change from the recent past: 2009 U.S. ad spending tumbled 11.9% (average of three media agencies), the biggest drop since the Great Depression.

The 18-month recession officially ended in June 2009. U.S. measured-media spending turned north in first-quarter 2010, the first year-over-year quarterly gain since first-quarter 2008, according to WPP's Kantar Media.

Americans Ignore Internet Ads Far More Than TV

MediaDailyNews
by Wayne Friedman, Friday, December 3, 2010, 10:55 AM

A majority of Americans say they ignore Internet ads -- far more than television, radio and newspaper ads.

Some 63% of consumers say they tend to ignore or disregard all Internet ads. Among this group, 43% say they don't pay attention to banner ads and 20% ignore search ads. The research was produced by AdweekMedia/Harris Poll, from a recent online survey done by Harris Interactive.

Farther down the list was television ads -- only a 14% number. Radio was at 7%; newspapers ads, 6%. Overall, almost all Americans say they ignore some ads -- 91%.

Looking at the Internet space, men and women ignore ads at about the same levels -- 42% for men; 45% for women.

When it comes to age, older U.S. media consumers 55+ ignore ads on TV the most -- at 20%. This compares with 14% for those 45-54 years old, 13% for those 35-44; and 9% for those between 18 and 34 years old.

Younger Americans ignore radio ads the most -- 11% of those 18-34 -- compared to 6% of those 55 years and older. 40% of those 18-34 ignore Internet banner ads.

When it comes to education, 46% of those who have some college and those who are college graduates say they ignore banner ads, compared to just 40% of those who have a high school degree or less.

Could this be a good piece to share with clients whose $$$ are getting larger on the I-net than on TV or radio? Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Local TV Continues to Engage, Inform, Inspire

MediaPostsBlogs
by Jack Loechner, Yesterday, 10:30 AM

A recently released a study Hearst Television shows that local television news is more effective in engaging viewers' attention to advertising than other TV program genres and competitive media.
The primary objectives of the study, says Frank N. Magid Associates, is to determine the key attributes to be used for television advertising sales based on the performance of local TV news relative to other genres and other media platforms across the following categories:

Importance.Emotional attachment.Level of engagement in advertising. Advertising effectiveness
49% of viewers ranked local TV news first as "... a major part of my daily routine." Broadcast prime time dramas and sitcoms ranked second (47%) followed by:

Broadcast network prime time reality TV (42%)
Cable network prime time dramas/movies (37%)
Cable news (34%)

45% of respondents said they "pay more attention" to local TV news than most other TV genres, while cable news was cited by 39%. 81% cited local TV news as the "most important" news source among local, network broadcast and cable TV news.

The largest number of respondents cited local TV newscasts as being the most effective medium for delivering awareness of products and services advertised during the programming. Local news ranked #1, with 27% of respondents replying that ads during local TV newscasts "keep me in the know with regards to products/services." Informational talk shows, was cited second by 24%.

Local newscasts were considered a better platform to most other TV genres in terms of:
Driving purchase of products Trustworthiness and Advertising products that appeal to the viewer.

Local TV news is also relatively "DVR-proof," says the study. Only 17% of respondents cited having recorded local TV newscasts for later viewing. 57% said they never, rarely or only sometimes fast-forward through portions of recorded local TV newscasts. By contrast, 69% of respondents said they most of the time or always fast-forward through portions of cable network prime time dramas/movies.

Ads on local TV news websites were found to do a better job than advertisements on most other types of websites in terms of:

Keeping viewers in the know regarding products and services
Driving purchase of products
Trustworthiness
Advertising products that appeal to the viewer

Local direct revenue can not only help put dollars in the bank for your station but help grow client businesses in your DMA with some commercials placed within the campaign you recommend when utilizing news programming...Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Scripps Forecast: Modest 2011 TV Ad Growth, Newspapers Still Suffering

by Wayne Friedman, Yesterday, 11:20 AM

E.W. Scripps says its television stations will see modest advertising increases in the first half of 2011.

Television ad revenues will increase in the low- to mid-single-digit range -- which comes on top of a very strong fourth-quarter period -- that other TV station groups have also seen.

With about two-thirds of the fourth quarter completed, Scripps said television ad revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to be 35% to 40% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2009 -- most of this fueled by high political advertising in October.

Long-term, Scripps says advertising conditions will return to pre-recessionary budgets.

"Several key advertising categories at our television stations are returning to 2008 levels," said Rich Boehne, president and chief executive officer, in a release. "Scripps is fortunate that our financial flexibility allows us to focus during this period on improving the news product for our audiences and enhancing the marketplaces we create for our advertisers."

Next year, levels will grow despite tougher comparisons of a advertising rebound in local television advertising that started in December 2009.

Scripps' newspaper business forecast will continue to see declines. A year-over-year drop for newspaper revenue, which was down 6.8% in the third quarter, will see another moderate fall in the fourth quarter.

Revenue trends will generally continue in 2011 in the negative, but at slightly better levels than recently witnessed. Boehne said: "The trends in newspaper advertising are slightly more encouraging."

Slow Your Selling to Speed Your Customers' Buying

Business Week
Today's Tip Contributor on December 3, 2010
Kevin Davis, President, TopLine Leadership, Reno, Nev.

One of the main ingredients to successful selling is utilizing a client's needs analysis as a problem solving approach..while the proposal,which is the outcome becomes more solution based. As a result, the client appreciates the extra effort and the reward is a long-term relationship and annuity-like income for the professional salesperson. Selling the "project or package" of the month does little to develop a solution for the client. Isn't the needs of the client foremost in successful business relationships? Taking a little extra time while performing a client needs analysis while concentrating on the client' best interests is the main reason the most successful professionals in the media business make the most money. In the most successful organizations, even in the midst of a chaotic recessionary environment, gone are the days when the company dictates what they want a salesperson is to sell without discerning the real needs of the client. Yet old-school sales managers still have to make their numbers so often they are less concerned with the needs of the client....just "bring in the order is the game of the day." Short-term revenue solutions for a company, such as quarterly projects, works in the opposite direction of building lasting relationships. The project can still be included in a proposal if it fits the needs of the client' objectives. (Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D. Executive Decision Systems, Inc., Littleton, Co).

Almost anyone who is trying to sell has been taught that a faster pitch means a faster close. In fact, the reverse is true. No matter what it is you’re trying to sell, you can often speed up the customers’ buying process by slowing down your sales process.

One type of "speed mistake" is being passive while customers define their needs and then rushing straight to a solution when they are done. If you are not involved in helping customers define their needs, they are not likely to see your solution as a perfect fit. Instead, slow down your pitch. Get them to talk about the reasons they need a solution (hopefully exposing additional needs that your solution can meet in the process) and think about the consequences of inaction. Taking this slow road can shift the odds in your favor and make your customers more likely to buy, because they will see more value to making a change soon.

Here’s a second speed mistake: immediately starting to pitch your solution when prospects call. If you do so, you’ve failed to ask your prospect a vital question: What steps have you taken so far in your decision-making process? The answer is critical to helping you shape an appropriate response. Get prospects who have just started thinking about the idea to talk more about their needs and problems, so you can evaluate whether they are likely to become serious about purchasing.

With prospects who have already met with one or more of your competitors, have a good idea of what they want, and are now shopping for a good price, your hurdle is much higher, because they are basing their decision on buying criteria that one of your competitors likely helped to shape. If you can, get them to talk about their needs and see if you can find opportunities to introduce additional buying criteria (that your solution meets, naturally). If you can identify a new need late in the buying cycle, you can quickly go from laggard to leader in the customer’s eyes.

The mismatch between selling speed and buying speed is the root cause of many lost sales. Don’t make that mistake anymore. Take the time to look at the purchase through your customer’s eyes so you can do a better job of providing the right kinds of information at the right points in their buying process. Doing so will differentiate you from your competition.

A Special Time of Year

Now that Thanksgiving has passed and the hope, joy and comfort of the holiday has passed, I wonder how many stop and think of how blessed we are compared to the hundreds of thousands of our fellow countrymen who have had little or nothing to celebrate. I believe it's time to reflect on this special time of year that in our country there are thousands who may not have found these times as joyful and rewarding as we have found for ourselves. Perhaps it's time to ask ourselves, "What have we done to help those around us who may be suffering from the frustrations and angst of long unemployment, the loss of their home and sometimes even an entire family? Each day I get sick of the news which reports our feeding people and rebuilding lives in other countries which is gracious, well and good...but are we often forgetting our very own? I believe we spend more time in other countries than we do right here at home! We have so many Americans whose lives are filled with tragedy each day, I think we need to concentrate on really helping them....perhaps more so than those who belong to another country. Yes...I see the daily TV videos of wonderful organizations reaching out to provide for our fellow Americans who still suffer from hunger, little clothings and not much of a home...but I often wonder at this time of year, do we really reach inside ourselves and understand the true meaning of each of our wonderful holidays during this special time of year? As my wife Donna drives me across town to see the doctors...I see people who walk with baskets from grocery stores filled with clothes and their personal belongings knowing well they have no home and maybe no family or warm bed on which to sleep. Yes I see this many times during the year but ...I especially feel it more during these holidays. I wonder, What can each of us do that might enrich their lives...even for but a moment? We are always so engrossed with our work and our lives but it only takes a little time out of our busy day or weekend to offer a meal, a warm coat, an hour of our time to those who go to sleep each night not knowing if they will have a meal for their family or as I said, a bed on which to sleep..or perhaps a new job and, maybe a new beginning come morning.

I am truly grateful for my wonderful family who even in distance, surrounds me with their comfort and love and the knowledge that they are blessed to be able to celebrate with a little more than the simple comforts of life. I am blessed having regained my health after a year-long battle resulting from three surgeries and a nasty bout of two staph infections picked up at the hospital. I look forward to seeing each day getting better so that one day I will walk and stand without pain. I know I will have to continue to take the six antibiotics each day for many years to come....But, as long as I can give something to others...even an inspirational thought about a better tomorrow...or to be able to regain some momentum to once again rejoin the Metro Denver Volunteers, whose work enables others' lives to become enriched by the projects and non-profits they serve..and the smiles they bring to many each day...I can then say...I am more fulfilled during this special time of year. For many, Chanukkah begins tonight, December 1st, and lasts for eight wonderful days and the candles that are lit light for each day remembering us that when the Temple of the Jews was destroyed centuries ago and when they ventured inside to begin rebuilding it as they have had to do each time it was destroyed, they discovered in the darkness of ruin but one small urn or lamp with only enough oil to last for but a day...but behold!... a miracle happened and the oil burned for eight days...Hence the "Celebration of Lights" as it is called, Hanukkah. Right after Hanukkah comes the magnificent beauty of Christmas....a time to celebrate the joy of sharing and giving....the smells of sweet things in the oven..and the gorgeous lights which adorn the homes and buildings in the city. But again, I ask myself, during this holiday that is filled with thousands of people streaming malls and filling bags of plenty, are we doing enough to reach out and do something of value to bring some small thread of hope to some of those who hover beneath bridges on freezing nights or those who can not buy more than one simple meal for their family? What joy can we to bring them...during this special time of year?

I wish all who read this little blog a most wonderful holiday season and may G-d bless you and your families and homes with continued joy and abundance...especially good health...and a very Happy New Year...with employment for those in need, a health plan from which we can all benefit...and the recovery of a long and painful economy...and a special wish that those whom we elected will serve our country...by the people and for the people and that finally, our congress and senate can come together as one nation filled with liberty and justice to serve us all....and G-d Bless America!! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Change is Good! How’s Your Leadership in the Midst of It?

Lead Dhange Group
Posted on November 16, 2010 by Erin Schreyer

I spent most of last week with clients in New York City. Wow, does that city move!! There is always something going on; so much excitement to see and energy to feel!! It’s a melting pot of people, interests, food and shopping – something for everyone, if you can find it amidst the crowds and activity.

I feel like our world, in general, is in a big state of activity as well. So many political and economic changes are driving companies to make adjustments. Companies are reacting with changes in their workforce, service offerings and compensation…and employees are feeling the effects.

Don’t get me wrong, change can certainly be a good thing. Sometimes, it’s truly needed. That said, change isn’t always easy for people to digest. They tend to have an immediate and sometimes physical reaction to any announcement of change. But the best companies will always adjust…and so change will be part of the equation.

Leaders should be cognizant of the impact of change on their team and be ready to support people through the process. Because the basic human need of feeling secure and valued is innate in all of us, leaders should be prepared to help nurture these emotions as change is occurring.

I’ve started a list of things that leaders can be proactive in doing to help ensure a smooth transition for their employees. What would you add to the list?

Communicate the change effectively. This is critical to the success of any change. A clear expectation must be set with as many details as can be provided (and then followed-through on!) Leaders should be transparent…but that doesn’t mean they should disclose every single detail. It means they should be authentic and honest, while they share as much as they can at the right times.

Involve your team in change, when possible. Rosabeth Moss Kanter once said, “Change is a threat when done to me, but an opportunity when done by me.” People want to play a part on what’s happening to their future. Engage their expertise to guide the change and they will reward you by being more energized by it.

Remain consistent in your core values. While processes, procedures and services may be changing, your people need to see the stability of your core values. This will help them to remain confident in what’s happening, even if all the questions can’t be answered.

Share the vision and hope for the change. This is what I often refer to as the “power of why.” Most people are fairly purpose-driven. They want affect change and have an impact, so it’s important to share the value and benefit of the change, as well as to help each person understand their role in that bigger picture.

Be an obstacle-remover. In times of change, more than ever, a leader must provide the right tools for success and remove obstacles that are impeding progress. Leaders should encourage open communication and innovation. They should also allow for graceful failures. This is where great leadership will come through, as the true “rallying” of the team is what facilitate a smooth transition through change.

What’s been your leadership experience in the midst of change? Are you a great leader who has some additional ideas to share? Or have you been led by someone who inspired everyone through a difficult transition? Let’s all add to this list and develop a great resource we can all benefit from!!

Radio Stabilized, Newspapers Slammed In 3Q

Media Post's MediaDaily News
by Erik Sass, Friday, November 12, 2010, 6:31 PM

The results are in, and while the Newspaper Association of America and Radio Advertising Bureau are still adding the numbers, a quick glance over third-quarter results from big publishers and radio groups suggests their fortunes are diverging, following a long period of tandem decline.

In short, radio is perking up as the economy enters a slow, tentative recovery -- but newspapers are continuing to suffer losses.

Most big radio groups reported single-digit growth in revenues in the third quarter compared to last year -- modest, but noteworthy on the heels of two years of straight declines.

At Clear Channel Radio, the nation's largest radio group, total revenues increased 6% from $703.2 million to $743 million, buoyed by increases in local and national ad revenues across categories including automotive, political, financial services and health care.

CBS Radio's revenues grew 9%, although the company did not release specific revenue figures. Cumulus Media saw total revenues inch up 3.6% to $66.4 million, as Emmis radio revenues grew 4% to $51.7 million, and Entercom reported that third-quarter revenues increased 3% to $102.7 million.

Taking the average, the big radio groups enjoyed average revenue growth of 5% in the third quarter of 2010 compared to 2009.

Conversely, big newspaper publishers continued to struggle, with single-digit declines across the board -- also noteworthy, since they are compounding several years of losses. Luckily, many own substantial broadcast TV businesses, which are buoying their bottom line.

At the New York Times Co., total revenues slipped 2.7% to $554.3 million due to a 1% drop in ad revenues and a 4.8% drop in circulation. McClatchy saw total revenues decline 5.7% to $327.7 million in the third quarter, reflecting a 6.4% drop in ad revenues and a 3.8% drop in circulation.

At Gannett, publishing revenues slipped 4.8% to $969.4 million, mostly due to a 5.1% drop in advertising revenue at the division, but total revenues were flat at $1.31 billion thanks to its TV business. Almost alone among major publishers, The Washington Post enjoyed a 5% increase in newspaper revenues, to $163.4 million, due mostly to increases in general advertising and digital revenues.

The news was not much better at smaller publishers.

A.H. Belo saw total revenues slip 6.1% in the third quarter, to $119.1 million; Media General saw its publishing division revenues shrink 7.6%, offset by an 18% increase in TV revenues. E.W. Scripps' newspaper revenues fell 3.8% to $100 million, offset by a 31% increase in TV revenues, to $78.5 million.

Adding up all their growth rates, these companies saw newspaper revenues decline an average of 3.7% in the third quarter.

Must-Stay TV: Longtime Viewers Remain Network Loyal

MediaPost's Media Daily News
by Wayne Friedman, Yesterday, 12:18 PM

Will TV viewers continue to be loyal to a network brand -- even when their favorite TV shows end?

In a study, Rentrak Corp. Factfinder analysis showed that viewers of popular-ending TV shows can remain with a network. The TV research company discovered these results after surveying viewers of ABC's "Lost" and Fox's "24" -- two longtime shows that ended their series runs last season.

Rentrak created a "Lost Viewer Index" and a "24 Viewer Index," comparing loyal levels of "Lost" and "24" viewers to television viewing of the total population today.

For the first two weeks of the new fall broadcast season, it found that "Lost" and "24" viewers remained loyal to ABC and Fox on Tuesday nights between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m., when those respective shows aired.

For example, viewers of "Lost" were 73% more likely than the general TV viewing population to watch ABC's "Dancing with the Stars," which also runs on Tuesday night. Former "24" viewers were 52% more likely to watch "Lone Star," Fox's short-lived series of this season, which ran on Tuesday night.

The data also cut across other time periods and competing networks. "Lost" viewers were 93% more likely to watch ABC's "Modern Family" and 89% more likely to watch ABC's "Grey's Anatomy."

"Lost" viewers were also 25% more likely to watch NBC's "Dateline NBC," 24% more likely to watch Fox's "Raising Hope" and 20% more likely to watch "Running Wilde."

Ex-"24" watchers were 64% more likely to watch CBS crime drama "NCIS: Los Angeles," 50% more likely also watch the network's "Criminal Minds" and 39% more likely to watch CBS' "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation."

Bruce Goerlich, chief research officer of Rentrak Corp., stated: "Viewer segment targets can be defined based on any combination of series or network viewers and allow for better promotion and counter programming to maintain or attract new viewers."

TV Companies: Embrace Mobile Or Lose Revenue

MediaPost's On Media
By Diane Mermigas
Nov. 15, 2010

At a time when digital interactivity should be inspiring widespread innovation and out-of-box thinking, too many media companies continue to respond with blanket denial and complacency that will shatter their bottom line.

Tacit dismissals about pay TV cord cutting by consumers favoring cheaper, mobile on-demand streaming video have a familiar ring -- like broadcasters' early denials about the threat of cable, or content producers and distributors blowing off the economic impact of time-shifting devices, such as DVRs. Playing catch-up rather than moving proactively leaves millions on the table.

The more than half a million subscribers recently reported to have abandon pay TV subscriptions -- in response to lingering economic pressures or enticement to use less expensive over the top streaming services -- is just the beginning of a trend sure to gain momentum even in an improving economy. Consumers' newly minted frugality and mobile behaviors are not going away. Their expectations and the perceived value proposition of goods and services are being radically reshaped. Embrace those new economics -- or forfeit the opportunity to participate in new revenue creation.

Why, then, do major media executives continue to defend their status quo? The risk is in how long it takes before accelerating disconnections and other digital impact play havoc with retrans and content fees.

"There has been much ado about very little in terms of all the talk about cost-cutting," said Viacom chairman Philippe Dauman during the company's recent third-quarter earnings call. Like so many of his peers, Dauman refers to anything other than television as "incremental," as if digital interactivity isn't forcing a convergence play across all screens and platforms. He refers to tight consumer spending merely as a product of the recession.

Time Warner CEO Jeffrey Bewkes also referred to his company's domain in terms of "television" rather than as universal "video." TV Everywhere, its big digital play, denotes transporting the television viewing experience to mobile interactive devices on which video is viewed and managed differently. The popularity of the content is its ultimate protection.

"It's probably going to not lead to any cord-cutting -- not in the long run ... if you have to reach [viewers] through some other distribution than the one that we currently have, then that's how the content industry will evolve," Bewkes said.

Even Comcast, the dominant cable provider, is pursuing digital from their dug-in vantage point. Poised to become one of the largest global content producer/distributor by buying a majority managing owner of NBC Universal by early next year, Comcast should be more engaged in creating new content formats and features that begin with iPads and other mobile devices rather than simple transferring static TV and film from their set top box. Cable MSOs lack the operating connection to mobile devices enjoyed by their Telco competitors.

"There will be set top boxes for a long time, but the world is beginning to see technologies that can in some cases do away with the set top boxes," Comcast CEO Brian Roberts said during a recent earnings call. "The most exciting products we are working on allow you to have tremendous functionality right on the TV ... some customers will not want all that and will want a different model, so we are working on all."

That schism between the lowly home television and trending mobile connected devices will begin translating into balance sheet gaps sooner than media moguls think. Just imagine the response if these same media moguls demonstrated their seriousness about digital by addressing it from outside the box -- be it television or set-top box. Here is three ways to make it happen:

*Create social, commerce and content features from the mobile connected vantage point and never look back. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings took his company from the mailbox to every device streaming video in less than two years, skipping right over television to add 6 million new subscribers to its 17 million base, more than 66% of whom stream content.

*Align with major social, cloud and mobile players moving from the fringe to the center. This could include leading companies such as Facebook, Netflix and Google to small-to-medium players such as GroupOn and Zynga whose niches can be used to springboard into mobile. The holiday fight between Google and Apple into the TV space is all about using interactive out-of-home functionality to intensify the convergence cycle. Facebook's foray into casual gaming and mobile access and check-ins facilitated by apps has driven partnership with blue-chip advertisers. More than 500 million Facebook users were once devoted TV fans.

*Innovation must begin outside the norm. The only way to generate new perspective and mind-set it to tear down the silo walls, bring together professionals from every discipline of your business; empower your best thinkers to collaborate without restraints. The ultimate goal is to layer interactivity into every level of your media business to heighten engagement and revenues.

One of my favorite visual guides to turning disruptive trends into revenue generators is the roll-up-your-sleeves workbook, "Business Model Generation" by Alexander Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur. It provides visual tools and techniques that give flight to the classic "Blue Ocean Strategy" by Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne to enable a new competitive mind-set. It's a little like digital revolution unbound.

Small Business Picks Up, Preceding Fed's Easy Money

Bloomberg
By Shobhana Chandra and Anthony Feld - Nov 15, 2010 8:15 AM MT

SAP AG co-chief executive officer Bill McDermott said Germany-based SAP’s small- and medium-size enterprise business “performed quite well in the third quarter.” Photographer: Craig Ruttle
Ultimate Golf Seating in Elkhart, Indiana, has hired five workers to expand its staff to 10 as orders increase for its custom-made golf-cart seats, which start at $745.

“Demand is starting to improve,” co-owner David Vahala said. “We’re definitely making a turn this year.”

Small businesses are bouncing back as access to lending eases and consumers ramp up purchases. This would be welcome news for policy makers struggling to spur the world’s largest economy and bring down unemployment stalled near a 26-year high, because small companies account for 60 percent of job creation, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. The Fed said Nov. 3 it plans to buy another $600 billion of Treasuries, citing “disappointingly slow” progress in the recovery.

“The winds are changing in favor of small businesses,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “It is a gradual improvement, but they’re definitely more active than they were a few months ago. As these businesses re-engage, it’ll put the recovery on a more solid footing.”

The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks the small-cap segment of U.S. equity markets, has risen 19.6 percent since August 31, compared with a 14.4 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The outperformance signals investors’ rising confidence in smaller companies and those that cater to the sector, including Administaff Inc., which provides human-resource services to small and mid-size businesses.

Analysts Upgrade

The Kingwood, Texas-based company’s stock jumped 8.2 percent to $27.90 on Nov. 2 after Roth Capital analyst Jeff Martin in Newport Beach, California, upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and set a price target of $34 a share following third-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ estimates.

The shift is echoed in announcements by larger companies ranging from SAP AG, the world’s largest maker of business- management software, to Dell Inc., the world’s third-biggest personal-computer manufacturer. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, last month said it plans to hire 1,000 employees in the next year to focus on companies with sales of $3 million or less.

Small-business sentiment also is healing, according to the optimism index of the National Federation of Independent Business in Nashville, Tennessee, which jumped in October to a five-month high.

‘Serious Improvement’

“This looks to us like the start of a serious improvement,” Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd. in Valhalla, New York, said in a note to clients after the NFIB report on Nov. 9. “We have long argued that a proper recovery in the broad economy requires a sustained improvement in the small-firm sector, which employs half the workforce.”

A month earlier, Shepherdson had written that September NFIB data indicated “progress is slow and small firms remain deeply depressed.”

John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics LLC in New York also were encouraged by the NFIB’s October report, which showed rising expectations for sales, better business conditions six months from now and improvement in hiring plans.

“Perhaps, at last, the small-business sector has a pulse, albeit a faint one,” the economists wrote in a Nov. 9 note to clients. “We expect small-business conditions to improve over the coming months.”

‘Performed Quite Well’

Walldorf, Germany-based SAP’s small- and medium-size enterprise business “performed quite well in the third quarter,” Bill McDermott, co-chief executive officer, said on an Oct. 27 conference call with analysts. Dell, in Round Rock, Texas, said Aug. 19 that sales to these customers grew 25 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, after a 19 percent gain the prior three months.

One source of relief for small companies is the thaw in lending, reinforced by the Fed’s quarterly survey of senior loan officers, released Nov. 8. Fed officials have held more than 40 meetings this year to try to reverse the drop in credit, and Bernanke said in an Oct. 15 speech that regulators have “seen some positive signs.”

Citigroup Inc. which claims 2,500 of the world’s 3,000 largest corporations as clients, says it also is targeting U.S. companies with less than $20 million of annual sales, and plans to hire about 200 bankers by the end of 2011 to court them. That would bring the number of small-business bankers to about 500, or one for every two North American branches.

Portfolio Revival

The revival in stock portfolios also helps by giving consumers the wherewithal to spend, said Ultimate Golf Seating’s Vahala, who is setting his sights on southern California, Arizona, Texas and the Carolinas after his first year of selling luxury seats in retirement communities such as The Villages in Florida.

“More retired customers are saying, ‘Now I can buy this seat; it’s been on my wish list for some time,’” said Vahala, 52. He sees the possibility of adding “one or two people through the end of this year and some more next year as the sales come in.”

He and his brother, Dan, also run Vahala Foam Inc., a 20- year-old company whose products go into car seats, recreational vehicles, boats and furniture. Their business, which cut staff to 65 in 2009 from about 120 before the recession, has 80 workers now and spent about $100,000 on new equipment this year. Hiring and investment would have been higher in normal years, Vahala said.

‘Coming Back Nicely’

Business is “coming back nicely,” he said, adding that workers have resumed 40-hour weeks after reduced shifts in 2009. “I’m still a little gun-shy. I wonder what’s going to happen this winter, but I feel we’ll come through it. Next year will be better.”

A pickup at small companies “could be pretty dramatic for stocks,” said Joseph Kremer, director of mid-, small- and micro-cap value strategies in Cleveland for Fifth Third Asset Management, which oversees about $20 billion.

“A renaissance in small, private businesses would ripple through the economy,” he said. Companies that sell to U.S. customers “would suddenly be seeing more growth,” while so far in the recovery, “most of what the market’s been hanging its hat on is industrial demand, a lot of it fed by foreign sales.”

Kremer said a general-merchandise discount retailer such as Dublin, Georgia-based Fred’s Inc. may do well because some consumer spending “would be ginned up at the lower end.” Companies like Consolidated Graphics Inc., a commercial printer in Houston, also might benefit from an increase in small- business demand for products such as mailers, business cards and catalogs, he said.

Jobs Turnaround

Data on employment show the turnaround has begun. Small companies have added jobs in every month since March, including a 21,000 gain in October, according to ADP Employer Services in Roseland, New Jersey, and St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. Medium-sized businesses employing 50 to 499 people expanded by 24,000, and large companies with more than 499 workers cut staff by 2,000.

“The momentum in business activity is up again, and that probably reflects the improvement in small business as well,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “It increases the likelihood that a true, self-sustaining recovery is under way.”

More Active

The lack of an industrywide measure makes it hard to gauge progress at small, privately held companies. The Small Business Administration defines small companies as those with fewer than 500 employees. Another description, used by Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based SFN Group Inc., qualifies small customers as having annualized revenue of less than $5 million. The staffing and recruitment services provider, which changed its name from Spherion Corp. in February, said such clients are becoming more active.

“We did see some more engagement by the small accounts,” Roy Krause, chief executive officer, said Oct. 28 on SFN’s third-quarter earnings call. “That’s an issue everybody’s been talking about in the industry.”

Paychex Inc., which manages payrolls accounting for companies that employ fewer than 100 workers, said checks per client rose 1.2 percent from a year ago in the quarter ended Aug. 31, after a 1.1 percent gain in the previous quarter that broke a more than three-year-long string of declines.

“Small businesses are doing some hiring and have reduced their layoffs,” John Morphy, chief financial officer of the Rochester, New York-based company, said in a Nov. 11 interview. “Of the clients that have weathered the storm, the majority are doing well. We’re seeing stability in our sales.”

U.S. Retail Sales Post Biggest Gain in 7 Months in October

The New York Times
By CHRISTINE HAUSER
Published: November 15, 2010

Sales at the nation’s retailers and food service establishments rose in October compared with the previous month, according to government figures released on Monday, providing a glimmer of hope that consumer spending was set to improve in the fourth quarter.

The Commerce Department statistics, which also showed an improvement over October 2009, sales, were better than what economists had forecast, and were based on upward revisions in similar sales in September and August. Economists hope they indicate that consumer spending is gaining strength, although many households are still de-leveraging and dealing with uncertainties in employment.
With an expected slow recovery in the job market and therefore small gains in wages, growth in consumer spending will be “modest at best,” said Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist for MFR Inc.
The Commerce Department said retail sales in October were up 1.2 percent from September, a jump from economists’ predictions of 0.7 percent. The October sales were also 7.3 percent higher compared with October last year. The seasonally adjusted figure represents $373.1 billion in sales.
The rise in the October numbers was primarily attributed to a 14 percent gain in motor vehicles and parts sales, and in sales at gasoline stations. Still, the statistics, which were adjusted for seasonal and holiday variations, show that when those components are removed the retail sales were also better than expected, registering a 0.4 percent rise.
“With autos showing life in September and October, the consumer is doing somewhat better than we would have expected,” said Mr. Shapiro in a research note.
Clothing sales were up and building materials sales were also stronger, the Commerce Department said.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the gross domestic product but a considerable portion of that spending is related to housing, medical care and food necessities.
There were declines in sales of furniture, appliances and department store sales, suggesting that some consumers were still hesitating before buying discretionary items. The figures are advance estimates, and subject to revisions.
The lower department store and electronics sales could reflect a decline in prices as stores try to attract consumers with discounts early in the holiday season, said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a United States economist with BNP Paribas.
Dan Greenhaus, the chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak & Company, said that based on the figures, it was likely that consumption in the fourth quarter could be revised upward, or up to 2.5 percent for fourth quarter GDP. But that is still well below what would be needed for GDP to bring down the unemployment rate of 9.6 percent.
“Generally speaking the report is quite good,” Mr. Greenhaus said. “It is coincident with stable levels of spending, although levels that remain well below that which would be needed to drive significant GDP growth.”
Consumer spending and employment are two of the closely watched sectors that economists use to gauge the pace of the economic recovery. Manufacturing has also been one of the key sectors of the economy, and generally thought to be a bright spot in hiring.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve provided a snapshot of regional New York manufacturing that showed November was considerable weaker than expected, with a decline of 11.14 compared with an expected reading of 15. New orders fell by over 37 points and the numbers of employees also fell, the survey said.

He Saw Trouble Coming. Now He Sees It Going.

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: November 6, 2010


Two data points from last week seemed to indicate an upswing ahead. October’s employment figures rose more than economists had expected, and the stock market clawed its way back to levels last reached just before the calamitous events of fall 2008.

But positive indicators can and do disappoint, so I decided to consult an expert on these matters: Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics. As a reader of economic tea leaves over the last five turbulent years, Mr. Shepherdson has a darn good record. For instance, unlike the throng of economists who failed to see the housing crisis coming, Mr. Shepherdson warned his clients in fall 2005 that real estate would crash and a recession would ensue.

He was early, of course, and now acknowledges that he was not nearly emphatic enough in his warnings. But he was fundamentally right back then and has been consistently on target since. So, I am happy to report that he sees the beginnings of a turn in the economy that could translate to a rise in gross domestic product growth and an improving employment picture in the second half of 2011.

The basis for his view is a shift, albeit nascent, in commercial and industrial bank lending. The trend is real, he said, and as it gains steam, small businesses should receive more credit, for which they have been starved. And because these companies employ half of the nation’s work force, this credit expansion will translate into real employment gains.

“The depression in small businesses explains pretty much everything in the weakness of this cycle,” Mr. Shepherdson said. “I reckon in the last cycle they accounted for two-thirds of all new job creation. Not only are they big, they are better job-creation engines than big companies, which are more inclined to do their new hiring offshore.”

HERE are the data that have caught his eye. At this time last year, the total stock of commercial and industrial bank credit was $1.32 trillion; it was contracting at a blistering pace — about $7 billion a week. Indeed, between the peak of such lending in October 2008 and the trough in June of this year, total commercial and industrial bank credit fell by one-quarter.

Now, this contraction has stopped. The data have recently turned positive and should continue climbing, albeit slowly. “Getting to zero is not bullish at the moment,” Mr. Shepherdson said. “I would want to see commercial and industrial credit growing reasonably strongly to an outright positive four, five or six billion dollars a week. The story is really that the credit contraction seems to be coming to an end.”

One problem for economists and investors, he said, is that our current economic cycle does not have the typical recession-recovery characteristics or timeline. Those who thought it would be similar to recent recessions were trying to fit a square peg into a round hole; there was nothing normal or routine about the events we have just lived through.

But Mr. Shepherdson says he does find parallels in our experience and that of Sweden in the early 1990s. The expansion of bank credit before the peak was similar in both countries. Furthermore, Sweden’s boom, like ours, resulted in rocketing real estate prices and overleveraged consumers.

When the bubble burst, both countries experienced similarly awful contractions. Gross domestic product declined 5.1 percent in Sweden at the trough, compared with 4.1 percent in the United States.

Mr. Shepherdson hopes that the Swedish experience on the upside also repeats itself in the United States. After Sweden’s output bottomed out in early 1993, the country began an upswing that soon became supercharged. The initial growth was at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent, but by the second year of the rebound, G.D.P. growth was 5.3 percent, annualized.

We may not end up with a recovery that hot, Mr. Shepherdson said. But if the credit expansion he is expecting does transpire, he said, we could achieve annualized growth of between 3 percent and 4 percent in the second half of 2011. And the year after that looks even more promising, he said, because “credit conditions will be back to something like normal.”

He expects that in the meantime, we will bump along at around 2 percent in economic growth, with no double-dip recession.

As commercial and industrial credit eases up a bit, Mr. Shepherdson said, it will unleash a pent-up demand among smaller companies for capital equipment, software, vehicles and other goods.

“We have seen strong capital spending in the gross domestic product accounts, but that’s all been big companies,” he said. “The next step is for small companies to pick up their buying and start hiring people.”

This lag in small-company spending is all about the tight credit conditions in that sector. The divergence between the amount of credit extended to big and small companies, he said, shows up in the distressingly wide gap between two closely watched sentiment surveys: the reports from the Institute for Supply Management, which reflects manufacturing activity of larger enterprises, and from the National Federation of Independent Business, representing smaller companies. While the I.S.M. figure is in recovery mode, the N.F.I.B. statistic remains squarely in recession territory.

Obviously, a growth in lending to small businesses is not yet being felt across the board, Mr. Shepherdson said. But as the credit expansion trickles down to these companies, the gap will start to close and employment will begin to ramp upward.

“My overwhelming condition for things to get better in the small-business sector is credit, so the positive data are a hugely exciting development,” he said. “I don’t think we will see all these gaps close by December, but over the next 12 months I think we will see a transition out of a sluggish 2 percent economy to a real, properly growing recovery. And the second half of 2011 may be the true turning point for unemployment.”

THERE’S no denying that our long economic despond has hurt vast numbers of people nationwide. And Mr. Shepherdson cautions that good times aren’t likely to roll immediately. “I wish it would be one of those situations that fixes itself in three months, which would be a normal cyclical rebound,” he said. “But by August of next year there is a very good chance that we will be on a recovery path.”

Let’s hope he is right again. And let the countdown begin.

Under Pressure: Learning to be a "Clutch" Leader

Home / Leadership / The View from Harvard Business
By Sean Silverthorne | November 3, 2010

In the sports world, a “clutch” player performs best when the pressure is on, backs are to the wall, and all eyes turned their way. Think Michael Jordan, Joe Montana, Martina Navratilova. When it was all on the line, they not only didn’t wilt, they got better.

Is there such a thing as a clutch leader? Do you know managers or CEOs who rise above when everything is on the line? A bigger question: Can you learn to be clutch?

The latest issue of Harvard Business Review is spun around the topic of military leadership, and there is an interesting blog post on HBR.org about how military cadets learn what it takes to be clutch. New York Times business writer Paul Sullivan, author of Clutch: Why Some People Excel Under Pressure and Others Don’t recounts a talk he gave at West Point on the subject.

All clutch leaders display five traits, he said: focus, discipline, adaptability, being present, and fear and desire. Read his post for more depth on each of these.

Sullivan’s good news for the rest of us is that organizations can train their performers to respond well to pressure. Sullivan says there are three things business leaders can learn from cadets:

1.Focused on a goal. “When they graduate they will be deployed to lead a platoon, probably in Afghanistan or Iraq. They know the responsibilities and the risks. And everything they are doing is preparing them for that moment. Do you know what your primary mission is at work?”
2.Continuous improvement. “They work in an organization that is continually striving to be better. When a mistake happens, the Army tries not to let it happen a second time. Are you aligned with the right organization? Or if you’re leading that organization, are you prepared to change things that aren’t working, even if change could be hard or even a reversal of something you implemented?”
3.Practice for success. “These cadets are given the physical and mental training that will help them do their jobs at the highest level. They know you have to be able to perform a task perfectly under normal conditions before you can expect to do it in a stressful situation. Can you say the same thing? Are you able to do your job at a high level every day? If not, then you should not be surprised when you make the wrong decisions under pressure.”
Will following this advice make you the Michael Jordan of your business? Well, maybe not–some people are just hard-coded for success in tough situations. But working at focusing on the objective, adaptability to the environment and improvement of skills sure puts whatever natural abilities you have in the best position to succeed when the going gets tough.

Looking through history, who were the greatest clutch leaders? Churchill? Lincoln? Alexander the Great?

TV Is Still Hot -- Now, And Even Next February

MediaPost's TV Watch
Full Frontal Television

A media critique by Wayne Friedman, Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Who -- or what -- is driving the TV advertising market these days? TV networks, marketers -- or perhaps an individual day of the week? It's a complicated formula.

After a dismal year, automotive advertising is back with a flourish, resuming its leading category status. Financial companies and telecommunications continue to be hot, right behind the autos. And movie companies still change media plans as often as movie and media executives change their socks -- daily. All this activity helps stir the pot.

TV's scatter market continues its rocketing pace for the networks, with hefty double digit gains. Currently, TV stations are pacing 20% to 30% and more over the really pitiful 2009 recessionary season, which sank TV companies in the other direction -- 20% to 30%. down.

Looking at some key factors, Thursday night isn't what it used to be -- but what is?

Viewership on that night has drifted south. But the highest rates of viewership have been on Sunday and Monday for many years. Thursday night's claim to fame has been as a big revenue driver, with movie companies still spending on that night and pushing up prices to big premiums. In more recent years, Fox's "American Idol" has help shift dollars to earlier in the week.

TV is dead to some digital entrepreneurs. But then there's the news of the Super Bowl. It's October, and Fox has only two 30-second spots --at $3 million a piece -- left to sell in the big game that airs next February, according to recent report.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. We know it's only one big TV event; it isn't the entire industry. But on more of a regular basis, the NFL, during this current season, has been pulling the best prime-time ratings in more than a decade.

Many TV research metrics -- live-only, live plus same day viewing -- don't look so good, especially for broadcasters. But that's not the whole story. Right or wrong -- helpful for advertisers or not -- after seven days many big prime-time TV shows add 30% to 40% more viewers.

Someone thinks TV is worthwhile enough to still watch these shows a week after their initial airings. That says something.

Tick, Tick. . . Boom: Time-Management Tips for Entrepreneurs

Entrepreneur Magazine - November 2010

By Joe Robinson |

Time urgency is the enemy of good work and good health. No matter how out of control you feel, you can tame the beast

The race is on, and you and your business are losing, to a foe so ingrained in the way you work you'd never even suspect it. The culprit is the very warp-factor speed so many entrepreneurs think is essential to success--time pressure, an obsession with scarcity of time that researchers call time urgency. It spawns a chronic state of hurry-worry that locks you into a perpetual rush hour, even if there's no reason for it. Constant clock-checking, zero tolerance for waiting longer than a nanosecond, the need to do everything ASAP or it's apocalypse now--these are just some of the telltale behaviors that come with this condition and the chronic impatience it brings.

Time urgency kills attention spans, rational decision-making skills and, at its most acute, the body itself by contributing to factors that lead to heart disease. People who feel chronic time pressure are twice as likely to have high blood pressure--even those in their 30s, a Northwestern University study found. Stephen Cole of Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School linked people with an insistent sense of time urgency and impatience with a "significant" increased risk of coronary heart disease.

Research has long linked time urgency to Type-A personalities, a breed that includes many entrepreneurs. Time urgency was studied in industrial psychology as early as 1913 but came under scrutiny as a critical factor in job stress when it was identified as a component of Type-A behavior in the 1970s. Investigators discovered that time urgency heightens anxiety and sets off an escalating chain reaction of emotions--impatience to irritability to anger. In addition, when every second is focused on getting as much accomplished in as little time as possible, bad behaviors develop--getting too little exercise, eating fast food, blowing off downtime and stress buffers such as hobbies or vacations--that also eat away at physical health.

Renee Wood, president of The Comfort Co., knows the symptoms too well. "The first thing is that my left arm starts to tingle and go numb," Wood says. "I feel this heavy heartbeat, like I'm being put in a bag." It feels something like a suffocation by clock, as the time ticks down on all the things she needs to do but doesn't have time for. Others feel a churning stomach, a tightness in the chest or neck, or a sense of being about to explode from all the adrenalized energy pouring through them.

Wood has struggled with time urgency for the eight years she's been running her Geneva, Ill., online business, which designs and sells sympathy gifts. The morning before our chat, she decided to keep track of how many times the wave swept over her. The tally: 15 episodes in four hours. "I'm thinking ‘I've got to answer that e-mail, fix that problem, send that order out,' " she says. "I feel like I'm at a stoplight, and I'm revving and revving. I've got to get somewhere."

Tech tools run amok and the instant gratification they train us to expect have amped up the time crunch, flooding us with more demands than we can possibly meet and making it seem as if they all need to be done instantaneously. It's a mechanical loop easy to get caught up in: Time urgency fuels stress, the panicky signals of the stress response create rushing, and that drives mistakes and further stress. The time urgency habit creates an illusion that busyness itself is the goal, and equates busyness with productivity--but it's actually keeping you running in place, stuck on mechanical momentum.

"Looking like you're doing something or doing something fast doesn't mean that you're actually doing it properly," says Srini Pillay, an assistant clinical professor at Harvard Medical School and author of Life Unlocked: 7 Revolutionary Lessons to Overcome Fear. "Companies need to realize that it is velocity and not speed that matters. Being efficient matters. Velocity takes into consideration the direction of the work and not just frenzied, high-speed activity. Just moving fast in itself is not enough."

You need to be moving fast with the right direction," Pillay says.

Researchers at Missouri Western State University found that time urgency causes more mistakes and even makes you forget what you're supposed to be doing. Other findings, from Siegfried Streufert while a behaviorial sciences professor at Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, have shown that complex decision-making and planning "distintegrated" with high levels of time urgency. The stress caused by time urgency constricts your brain, as all stress does, to the perceived crisis and doesn't let you focus clearly on much else.

"You lose sight of what you're really trying to accomplish," says Robert Trumble, management professor and director of Virginia Labor Studies Center at Virginia Commonwealth University. "There's a rush to judgment, in which the urgent is given priority over the important. These people are doers, but do they really know what they're doing?"

The baseline of time urgency is a need to control time, but time urgency winds up controlling you. You stress over the elevator that's taking forever or e-mails that don't have to be returned immediately, or you put life and limb at risk to get to FedEx before the last shipment of the day goes out. Rushing is, in fact, an altered state very similar to drunkenness. You do things in your rushing mind you never would do in your sane mind, like go ballistic at a 10-item-or-less checkout counter when someone goes over the quota.

That's anger, and anger is a well-documented link to heart disease. Men with higher "trait anger" have a 1.7 times greater chance of developing hypertension, with a 90 percent increased risk for coronary heart disease for pre-hypertensive men, according to a 2007 study at the University of South Carolina of 2,334 men and women.

In a review of 43 studies, researchers at University College in London found that anger and hostility increased the risk of coronary heart disease in healthy people by 19 percent.

Eduard Suarez, a behavioral sciences professor at Duke University, has shown that anger and hostility lead to the production of higher levels of coronary C-reactive protein (CRP), a substance that promotes and predicts cardiovascular disease in healthy people and is associated with inflammatory processes that lead to thickening of the arteries. He found that men who rated high in hostility and depression had two to three times the amount of CRP than mild-mannered men had. Hostility is such a red flag that a study by the Boston University School of Public Health in 2002 suggested that it's a better predictor of coronary disease than high cholesterol, smoking or drinking.

Time urgency is not a state that leads to sane business decisions. You are at the mercy of the raw, panicked emotions of the caveman brain--the amygdala--home of the stress response, which hijacks the rational parts of your mind in times of perceived danger.

The paradox is, as out of control as you might feel, the ability to control time urgency is completely in your hands. Watch for tip-offs that you are on the too-fast track--eating fast, talking fast, being in a general hurry and excessively aware of time, putting words in other people's mouths and feeling chronically impatient and irritable. And when you're racing, catch yourself. Take a deep breath. Ask, is it an emergency or is it a speed trap? You don't have to be in fifth gear every second of the day.

Kimberly Chiu, a Monterey Park, Calif., entrepreneur whose company, Papeterie, produces custom letterpress stationery, learned the hard way that she couldn't run a sustainable business if she let time urgency run her. She doesn't answer e-mail in five minutes anymore, nor does she do weekend and 2 a.m. e-mails, two things that gave customers the impression she was available every second. "It's very easy to want to please the customers," notes Chiu. "But we always try to underpromise and overdeliver."

The fastest runners in the world, from sprint legend Carl Lewis to Olympic gold medalist Allyson Felix, have a habit of saying after winning races that they relaxed more than their competitors. They concentrated on their form, not the finish line of the clock, so they weren't tense or constricted, as we are when we're rushing. They didn't panic and stuck to their game plan. They focused on the content, not the clock. That's the ultimate answer to time urgency--full engagement in the moment. That's optimal performance.

Playing Favorites: Identify Your Best Customers

Entrereueur/Business on the Main
By Randy Myers | October 25, 2010

Devote yourself to keeping your best customers happy and watch your business grow.

Let's face it. We all have our favorite customers -- the ones who pay promptly, handle problems respectfully and, most important, give us repeat business. So why waste our time on any other kind?

It's impossible, of course, to avoid every problem customer -- the habitually poor planner, the late payer, the perpetual complainer -- since it can take time for their worst traits to surface. And, at the end of the day, we need their business. Still, it's important to minimize the time we waste on these difficult customers and maximize the time we spend catering to the pleasant and profitable -- the ones who drive our success and satisfaction.

The first step is to identify your best customers (if you don't already know) -- and then devote yourself to keeping them utterly delighted with your goods or services. Over time, this will help grow your business

"This is hugely important," says Wendy Rogers, who with her husband, Hal Kunnen, owns the HouseMaster home and termite inspection franchise in Phoenix, Arizona. "You've already showcased your goods and services to your best customers. In a sense, they're already sold on you. You should work doubly hard to keep them happy because it's much more difficult to get new business than it is to keep old business."

Rogers walks the talk. She and Kunnen get much of their work through referrals from real estate agents, and they make a special effort to keep those who send the most business their way happy. The couple track their referrals in an electronic database and share the results with their marketing director, who travels around the state visiting 10 to 15 real estate offices each day. When he visits a repeat "customer," he'll leave the agent some educational literature and a personal, handwritten thank-you note. Rogers and Kunnen also go to extra lengths to accommodate these valued customers, whether that means responding quickly to last-minute inspection requests or helping one of their tech-challenged homeowner clients retrieve an electronic copy of a home-inspection report.

Thanks in part to efforts like these, Rogers and Kunnen generate about 75 percent of their company's revenue through repeat referrals.

They're certainly not alone in harnessing the power of identifying and catering to their best customers. Tony Ellison, who founded the online office supply store Shoplet.com in 1994, has parlayed knowledge about his customer base into rapid growth, too. He reports that from 2001 through 2006 his company's revenues grew at a triple-digit rate. And during the current recession, revenues have continued to grow at double-digit rates.

The way Shoplet.com manages its customers offers lessons for us all. The company uses a mix of commercial and internally developed customer-relationship management software to segment customers by size, industry and profitability. It also sorts them by their shopping characteristics -- impulse buyers, for example, repeat buyers and cherry pickers who purchase only select items that have been aggressively priced. Shoplet.com uses this information to offer special incentives and promotions to its best customers, including exclusive coupon codes, a rewards program with invitation-only membership and personalized account-management services.

"We have over 2.5 million customers and have isolated 10 percent that we actively pursue," Ellison says. "This approach has allowed us to develop a model that sustains far more favorable pricing for our best customers."

The next time you find yourself wasting precious time dealing with a problem client, go ahead and resolve the issue at hand if you can. But then consider whether it might make sense to find a way out of the relationship. The time you save will be time you can spend giving your best customers the service they deserve. Over time, your short-term loss should translate into long-term gain.

CEA: Holiday CE Sales to Rise 5%

Here are some highlights delivered at CEA's Industry Forum in San Francisco:
A look at what CE products consumers plan to buy this holiday season from Dealerscope
October 19, 2010 By Jeff O'Heir

This is from me. Now is a great time to make contact with local direct businesses in the consumer electronics biz in your DMA and help them get a piece of the action. Lots of good ups! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D........

- In the top-ten wish list of gifts, adults chose a laptop, second behind peace/happiness; an iPad third; an eReader fifth, behind clothes; and a video game system ninth. Last year, a computer and video game system ranked second and third, with television coming in sixth and digital cameras in eighth, two products that didn't make it to this year's list.


This is the first year in which three CE products ranked in the top five, a sign of high consumer demand for innovative products, especially tablets. This bodes well for retailers, considering new products typically account for about 50% of CE products bought during the holidays, DuBravac said.

PS; Here is even more data to support making the call on your consumer electronics prospect/client..PJL:

Record US Holiday Spending on Gadgets: CEA
from Yahoo! News 10.19.2010

WASHINGTON (AFP) Americans will spend a record amount on consumer electronics this holiday season, devoting nearly a third of their gift budget to gadgets, the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) said Tuesday. "This holiday season, spending on consumer electronics gifts will reach historic highs, despite an overall decline in gift spending," the CEA said in its annual survey of holiday spending. "Overall, consumers will spend 750 dollars on holiday gifts, down two percent from last year," it said. "They will, however, spend more on consumer electronics gifts than ever before. "Consumers will spend 232 dollars on consumer electronics gifts

- The number of consumers who plan to spend money on holiday gifts is 73%, about the same as in 2007 and up from last year's 67%. About 75% of those consumers plan on gifting a CE product, the highest amount in the survey's history. There is also a significant increase in the amount of CE products people plan to give: 37% plan to give to a spouse, up from 27% in 2009; self-gifting hit 29%, up from 28%; and gifting to children rose to 48%, up from 43%.

"We continue to see more consumers allocate more (CE products)," DuBravac said. Steve Koenig, CEA's director of industry analysis, who joined DuBravac on the stage, added "We've seen a pretty good jump in gifting CE."


- About 85% of adults want a CE product this holiday season, up from 80% last year. In order of preference, the top-10 list of products is: iPad, eReader, iPod/iPod Touch, video game system, digital camera, big-screen TV, computer (unspecified), desktop PC.


- About 86% of teens, up from 77% last year and 84% in 2008, want a CE product as a gift. Their top ten are MP3/digital media player, iPod/iPod Touch, video game console, laptop, cell phone, iPad, tablet PC, smart phone, video games and iPhone.

The Four Capacities Every Great Leader Needs

Fast Company FC Expert Blog Oct 15, 2010
by Tony Schwartz

When I was a very young journalist, full of bravado and barely concealed insecurity, Ed Kosner, editor of Newsweek, hired me to do a job I wasn't sure I was capable of doing. Thrown into deep water, I had no choice but to swim. But I also knew he wouldn't let me drown. His confidence buoyed me.

Some years later, I was hired away by Arthur Gelb, the managing editor of The New York Times. This time, I was seduced by Gelb's contagious exuberance about being part of a noble fraternity committed to putting out the world's greatest newspaper.

Over the last dozen years, I've worked with scores of CEOs and senior executives to help them build more engaged, high performance cultures by energizing their employees. Along the way, I've landed on four key capacities that show up, to one degree or another, in the most inspiring leaders I've met.

1. Great leaders recognize strengths in us that we don't always yet fully see in ourselves.

This is precisely what Kosner did with me. He provided belief where I didn't yet have it, and I trusted his judgment more than my own. It's the Pygmalion effect: expectations become self-fulfilling.

Both positive and negative emotions feed on themselves. In the absence of Kosner's confidence, I simply wouldn't have assumed I was ready to write at that level.

Because he seemed so sure I could--he saw better than I did how my ambition and relentlessness would eventually help me prevail--I wasted little energy in corrosive worry and doubt.

Instead, I simply invested myself in getting better, day by day, step by step. Because we can achieve excellent in almost anything we practice with sufficient focus and intention, I did get better, which fed my own confidence and satisfaction, and my willingness to keep pushing myself.

2. Rather than simply trying to get more out of us, great leaders seek to understand and meet our needs, above all a compelling mission beyond our immediate self-interest, or theirs.

Great leaders understand that how they make people feel, day in and day out, has a profound influence on how they perform.

We each have a range of core needs--physical, emotional, mental and spiritual. Great leaders focus on helping their employees meet each of these needs, recognizing that it helps them to perform better and more sustainably.

Arthur Gelb helped my meet not just my emotional need to be valued, but also my spiritual need to be engaged in a mission bigger than my own success. Far too few leaders take the time to figure out what they truly stand for, beyond the bottom line, and why we should feel excited to work for them.

3. Great leaders take the time to clearly define what success looks like, and then empower and trust us to figure out the best way to achieve it.

One of our core needs is for self-expression. One of the most demoralizing and infantilizing experiences at work is to feel micromanaged.

The job of leaders is not to do the work of those they lead, but to serve as Chief Energy Officer -- to free and fuel us to bring the best of ourselves to work every day.

Part of that responsibility is defining, in the clearest possible way, what's expected of us--our concrete deliverables. This is a time-consuming and challenging process, and most leaders I've met do very little of it. When they do it effectively, the next step for leaders is to get out of the way.

That requires trusting that employees will figure out for themselves the best way to get their work done, and that even though they'll take wrong turns and make mistakes, they learn and grow stronger along the way.

4. The best of all leaders--a tiny fraction--have the capacity to embrace their own opposites, most notably vulnerability alongside strength, and confidence balanced by humility.

This capacity is uniquely powerful because all of us struggle, whether we're aware of it or not, with our self worth. We're each vulnerable to believing, at any given moment, that we're not good enough.

Great leaders don't feel the need to be right, or to be perfect, because they've learned to value themselves in spite of shortcomings they freely acknowledge. In turn, they bring this generous spirit to those they lead.

The more leaders make us feel valued, in spite of our imperfections, the less energy we will spend asserting, defending and restoring our value, and the more energy we have available to create value.

All four capacities are grounded in one overarching insight. Great leaders recognize that the best way to get the highest value is to give the highest value.

The Five W's of Marketing

Bloomberg Business Week Oct 15, 2010
When developing a marketing program, it's not enough to know who, what, when, where, and why. You need to keep them in order, says Steve McKee author.

You've heard of the Five W's: who, what, when, where, and why. They're the elements of information needed to get the full story, whether it's a journalist uncovering a scandal, a detective investigating a crime, or a customer service representative trying to resolve a complaint. There's even an old PR formula that uses the Five W's as a template for how to write a news release.
Most of the time it doesn't matter in what order the information is gathered, as long as all five W's are ultimately addressed. The customer service rep's story may begin with who was offended, while the journalist may follow a lead based on what happened. The detective may start with where a crime was committed while details of who and what (not to mention when and why) are still sketchy.

The Five W's are helpful in marketing planning as well. But unlike in other professions, the development of an effective marketing program requires that they be answered in a specific order: why, who, what, where, and when. The reasons may not be obvious, but by following this pathway you can avoid a great deal of confusion, trial and error, and blind alleys, preserving your company's precious time and resources.
Many marketers instinctively begin with questions about what and where, as in "what" their advertising should say or "where" it should appear. That's what gets them into trouble. They may have some success putting their plans together by relying on intuition and experience, but both can be misleading in a rapidly changing marketing world. These days it's easy for anyone to become confused by (or fall prey to) the latest and greatest trends and tactics.

First, Why Marketing?
Smart companies begin by asking "why"—why are we expending our limited resources in marketing? Why do we believe they're better invested here than in other aspects of our business? These questions, properly considered, force company leaders to clearly define their business and marketing objectives and confront their (often unrealized) assumptions before they get too far down the road.
In some cases they may have unrealistic expectations of their marketing efforts. In others, they may be looking to advertising to solve a non-advertising problem. In still others they may be reflexively reacting to a competitor's moves, or to any one of a number of other marketplace or internal dynamics (see "Who's to Blame When Growth Stalls?"). Beginning with the "why" can be challenging, but starting here is critical to ensuring that your subsequent efforts are on target.

The second question is "who"—who is essential to our achieving our goals? To whom should we be directing our message? Whose hearts and minds must we win in order to succeed? The answers to these questions should be derived from the business objectives identified above so that the target audience(s) for your effort are clearly related to them.
For example, a marketing plan meant to generate significant new top-line revenue would likely focus on new customer attraction. An effort that's meant to enhance margins may concentrate on improving your brand's value equation among existing customers. And a plan to enhance your company's price/earnings ratio would focus on prospective investors and industry analysts as its primary target. The better any company defines its "who"—and the more it can know about their lifestyles, behaviors, attitudes, opinions, wants, and needs—the more effectively it can address the remaining three W's.

Branding Issues
Next comes "what," as in what it is you need to offer your target audiences in order to accomplish your objectives. This, of course, encompasses a host of business decisions, from product to pricing, policy to packaging, and everything in between. But it is also where key branding issues are addressed, including positioning, differentiation, and a determination of the personality dimensions that are appropriate for both the brand and the task (see "Building a Better Brand").

To be sure, as market conditions and customer needs change, the "what" of your offering will be a continually evolving proposition. But by having a solid understanding of the "who" and "why" of your efforts, you'll be more likely to get, and keep, the "what" right.
Finally, the last two W's can be addressed as you dive into the specifics of campaign planning. The questions now revolve around where and when the best places and times are to communicate your "what" to your "who" in service of your "why." At this stage you'll be required to make many tactical decisions, but if you've effectively addressed the first three W's you'll have the context and perspective you need to make the final two work as hard as possible on your behalf.

In some ways the principles of marketing are simple, but their simplicity can be deceptive. Beneath them often lie hidden complexities that you ignore at your peril. The common way of citing the Five W's—who, what, when, where, and why—rolls off the tongue and is a great mnemonic device. But if you want to optimize your marketing efforts, think why, who, what, where, and when. The order makes all the difference.

Holiday Advertising Outlook: Pretty Solid Outlook

Media Life/Media Economy
By Diego Vasquez
Oct 14, 2010

Retail sales are expected to be up 2.3 percent

The past two holiday seasons there's been a lot of modest gifts under people's trees if retail spending numbers are any indication. Two years ago, when the recession took hold in earnest, consumers slashed their holiday spending by 3.9 percent, and last year saw spending rise just 0.4 percent above the dismal 2008 level. But this year there could finally be some holiday cheer at the local mall. A new forecast from the National Retail Federation predicts that holiday spending will be up 2.3 percent over 2009 this year. The NRF is notoriously upbeat, but media buyers seem to agree: They think retail advertising will be up in fourth quarter, too, with advertisers anticipating more traffic to their stores. Those shoppers will still be looking for deals, so expect much of the advertising to relate to sales of some sort. Greg Clausen, executive vice president and chief media officer at Doner, talks to Media Life about mobile advertising, how political will affect retail spending, and what the hot categories will be.


The NRF says holiday spending will be up 2 percent this year over last. Will that encourage advertisers to spend more?

I think it will. I think there will be an increase in ad spending this year.

There are a lot of factors going into that, but based on fourth quarter media pricing we've seen, I think spending will be up more than that 2.3 percent, just because media pricing is so strong right now. A lot of advertisers, I think, are holding back spending until political is done, making for a narrower window.


Overall, do you think retail ad spending will be up this year over last?

I think it will be. I think fourth quarter will secure that because I think spending in fourth quarter will be up a pretty solid clip.


Do you think advertisers will be more wary or less wary of advertising during the holidays this year after the bad economic news over the summer?

I think there's two ways to think about it.

Advertisers have been wary for some time now. So any positive economic news will fuel them because they want to be optimistic. And I also think that they may want to take advantage of any post-election consumer optimism as well.

I think there will be a lot of activity and movement in the [political] offices that are being contested, and I think some residual optimism will come out of that. If advertisers see that, I think they'll try to capitalize on it.


Which retail categories do you expect to be the most active in terms of ad spending during the holiday season and why?

I think consumer electronics is probably going to lead. I think you'll see a lot of spending and interest in tablets like the iPad, and I think the iPhone will also fuel spending. Also, the e-readers have come into that set. And there are some innovations going on in gaming industry, such as with the PlayStation 3, so I think that will be a particularly strong category.


How will retail spending differ this year from last year -- do you see more of it going to the web, to spot television, etc?

I think it will remain heavy on TV. I think you'll probably see an increase on the web and I think there will be more mobile this year than you've seen in the past. Spending will be up by consumers, but I do think retailers are still going to have to offer value, so that's an opportunity to offer mobile messaging of special offers, etc.

There won't be unbridled optimism, so value will be very important.


Which media categories will benefit the most from holiday retail ad spending this year?

I think web and mobile. I also think TV will still benefit because at the end of the day if you're trying to drive awareness, having the visual element of television is still pretty critical. I think they'll do quite well in the fourth-quarter period.


Do you think the NRF is right, or do you see spending being up or down more or less than 2 percent?

I think spending will be up at higher rate than what the retail increases will be.

The NRF numbers seem a touch conservative, because we're not coming off a robust season last year.


How much of an impact does teen spending have on the holiday season, and do retail advertisers try to target them in any particular place?

Certainly teens have more disposable income today than they did five, 10 or 20 years ago, but it depends on the product category.

That's where I think consumer electronics comes into play, it's not just for the gift purchaser, but also for the gift requester. For the appropriate category it's certainly something that can be influential.

Marketing, Not Advertising

Marketing, Not Advertising By Mary Collins
TVNewsCheck, October 8, 2010 6:14 AM EDT

Do you remember the metaphor that contrasts dropping a frog in a pot of boiling water as opposed to placing it in lukewarm water and then gradually bringing it to a boil? While the frog will quickly jump out of the boiling water, the story goes, it will allow itself to cook to death if the water temperature increases by just a few degrees at a time.

I heard someone cite that scenario when I was in New York last month. It’s certainly a fitting allegory to describe what Magna Global’s Brian Weiser posed as one of the possible ways technology can impact the advertising products we now offer.
With the online world’s ability to cater to “name your own price” business models, traditional media’s supply-driven business models could seem like asking new media marketers to jump into a boiling cauldron. On the other hand, if traditional media outlets fail to assess the impact of conforming to new media’s pricing metrics, they could experience irreparable harm to the market value of their broad reach and high levels of audience engagement before realizing what happened.

However, Weiser’s description of the changes we are experiencing in the marketplace can be very helpful in making us more aware of their incremental impact. This should help us keep our cool and remain focused on growing our businesses no matter how torrid and turbulent it gets around us.

That process begins with understanding the shifts that are occurring as a result of technology’s impact on media consumption. Weiser points out that these shifts include the replacement of non-ad-supported activities that once occurred offline with online ad-supported activities that can grow advertising. Examples include the shift from board games to video games, which now feature online and dynamic advertising opportunities.

In addition, lower value ad-supported behavior that occurred offline, like phone directories, may be replaced with higher value, ad-supported behavior that’s available via online and mobile search engines. These instances of higher value ad-supported behavior online may in turn be replaced with lower value ad-supported behavior online, such as the shift from reaching customers via Yahoo to using Facebook.

As we see with the Yahoo versus Facebook comparison, these new technologies fragment audiences. Weiser reminds us that this fragmentation can reduce the value of a medium to large advertisers. However, the lower media price points for fragmented media allows for the use of a medium by smaller advertisers. Fragmented audiences technology can deliver a higher value per unit of media.This, in turn, allows advertisers to achieve their objectives through smaller ad budgets. And if we’re not careful, smaller ad budgets can result in turning up the heat.

Another change that can threaten traditional advertising models is the impact of advertising systems on ad revenues. At the organization design level, Weiser observes, an advertiser’s corporate structures can pre-define marketing choices. In this scenario, reach and frequency becomes a proxy for the organization’s marketing objectives. For advertisers that use the R&F paradigm, traditional media choices represent a rational decision.

Meanwhile, there are developments that Weiser describes as “universe changes” that affect the advertising marketplace. The advertiser universe itself is not fixed. The types of businesses operating in different countries change over time, affecting who is buying media and what they want their buys to accomplish.

Twenty-five years ago, cell phones were luxury products not sold with television or radio spots. The earliest national commercial I could find for Apple aired in 1984. Think about the last time you saw an ad for a long-distance telephone carrier and compare that to the last smart phone commercial you saw or heard. These new mass market categories are critical to the growth of total advertising and they demonstrate the shifts that have occurred among advertisers over the past decade.

Another change that has occurred among mature advertisers, according to Weiser, is that they are shifting the focus of their budgets away from buying media and more toward marketing. We are also experiencing the creation of “endemic ecosystems,” which he views as a key source of growth for the media business.

We must also be aware of the operational friction that is being created by ad systems. Contrary to the build-it-and-they-will-come approach, Weiser points out that the mere presence of a medium is insufficient to enable advertising. And, a medium offering limited distribution will be considered insufficient for advertisers that require reach. Weiser also reminds us that large advertisers have many operational requirements that are competing for a finite quantity of financial resources.

Taken in total, these changes illustrate the role of technology as a catalyst for potential. Rather than becoming distracted by the disruption it creates, we can focus on where we can incorporate these areas of potential into our business models. Reach still matters, as does frequency, especially as new businesses seek to achieve the recognition and interest that are precursors to engagement and relationship marketing.
What is the media outlook for 2011? As Brian Weiser reminds us, the answer depends only in part on what the market projections may be for a particular form of advertising, such as spot or online. The station or company that turns the potential created by these technology-driven opportunities into smart, 360 marketing campaigns with a predictable ROI for its advertisers will have the best outlook for 2011.

It’s also the best way to ensure we’re not like that frog who didn’t notice how the changes in his surroundings were leading to his demise.