shopping

Record Traffic Masks a More Calculated Holiday Shopper

• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

 

The National Retail Federation reports that a record 202.9 million people shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year, easily topping last year’s 197 million and beating NRF’s own forecast by about 16 million. The trade group says the blowout weekend keeps spending on track for holiday sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, crossing the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

It’s not that there aren’t pressures on people, trade group execs said. It’s just that shoppers build a “moat” around December spending, even if they cut back in other areas. “Holiday spending and holiday shopping is an essential part of the budget,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said on a press call, calling the five-day stretch “a very, very solid beginning to the holiday season.”

The survey-based tally shows 129.5 million consumers shopped in stores, up 3% from last year, and 134.9 million shopped online, up 9%. Almost all weekend shoppers bought holiday-related items, spending an average of $338 — up from $316 a year ago and the highest since 2019. About two-thirds of that spending went to gifts.

Other data sets tell a similarly upbeat — if heavily promo-driven — story. Adobe Analytics says Cyber Monday generated $14.25 billion in online sales, up 7.1% year over year, with Cyber Week reaching $44.2 billion, up 7.7%. Steep discounts in electronics, toys and apparel did much of the work. Buy now/pay later usage hit a record $1.03 billion on Cyber Monday, up 4.2%, as more shoppers spread payments over time.

Mastercard SpendingPulse estimates Black Friday retail sales rose 4.1% from last year, with ecommerce up 10.4% and in-store sales up 1.7%. “Consumers are showing incredible savviness this season,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, in the announcement. “They’re navigating an uncertain environment by shopping early, leveraging promotions, and investing in wish-list items.”

The NRF's top destinations for gift shopping? Supermarkets, at 47%, followed by online at 45%.

NRF chief economist Mark Matthews said consumers are “very, very promotional, very sales-focused,” and more attuned to price comparisons than ever. For retailers, the record traffic and mid-single-digit sales gains are welcome. But with much of that strength tied to discounts and BNPL, the holiday surge looks more like a protected splurge than proof that broader consumer jitters have melted away.

 

 

Luxury Isn't Collapsing -- It's Recalibrating Downward

• by Sarah Mahoney , December 1, 2025

Luxury marketers like to boast that their customers are resilient, but the latest numbers tell a more brittle story. Bain’s newest benchmark pegs global luxury spending at €1.44 trillion — flat at best — as the consumer base contracts, active shoppers fall sharply, and profit margins sink back to levels last seen in 2009. Beneath that surface stability is a structural reset: Consumers are prioritizing experiences over goods, and brands are losing both aspirational shoppers and margin power.

The Bain–Altagamma study describes “tectonic shifts” as consumers redirect spending toward cruises, fine dining, travel adventures, safaris, and elite sports. These categories are redefining exclusivity, while anything that signals conspicuous consumption — cars, handbags, and shoes — is struggling. Even beauty, typically a bright spot, stalled and ended the year flat.

The demand problem is real. Active luxury shoppers now make up just 40% to 45% of the addressable customer base, down from roughly 60% last year. The total number of luxury consumers has fallen from 400 million in 2022 to about 340 million in 2025, and new customer acquisition slipped 5% between 2024 and 2025.

Personal luxury goods, which excludes categories like travel, automotive, and furniture, are expected to finish the year down about 2%. Apparel is likely to edge down, and both leather goods and footwear are forecast to fall 5% to 7%. Growth is limited to jewelry (up 4% to 6%) and eyewear (up 2% to 4%).

Spending patterns are also diverging by income tier. Ultra-wealthy buyers have trimmed purchases slightly, with the high-end segment (about 40% of the market) contracting by 1% to 3%, even as they spend more on cars, hospitality, fine wines and spirits, and gourmet dining. Yachts and private jets remain strong sellers. The accessible segment was flat to slightly negative, but gained share within personal luxury goods, powered by Gen Z and value-conscious shoppers.

“After the shopping spree era, experiences and emotions have become the true engine of luxury growth,” writes lead author Claudia D’Arpizio, Bain & Company senior partner in fashion and luxury. “The market remains resilient but not immune to macroeconomic complexities, navigating a fragile global balance.”

Retail behavior is shifting, too. Outlet stores are outperforming as consumers hunt for value. Online spending is stable, but physical retail footprints are shrinking sharply, with declines across monobrand stores and U.S. department stores.

Profitability is deteriorating, with margins expected to fall 15%–16%, matching the lows of 2009.

D’Arpizio calls this a crossroads, shaped by uneven regional growth paths, pricing pressure, and fragmented consumer personas. “Creativity is progressively coming back, but a broken price–value equation calls for integrity and renewed trust,” she adds. “This is luxury’s moment of truth… The winners will balance profit with purpose, creativity and conscience, turning recalibration into reinvention.”

Bain expects a modest recovery in 2026, forecasting growth of 3% to 5%. Deutsche Bank is slightly more optimistic, predicting 6% growth next year — up from its estimate of 2% for 2025 — while cautioning that the sector is unlikely to return to its prepandemic trajectory. The firm names LVMH, Burberry, and Richemont as its most preferred stocks, and lists Kering and Moncler among its least preferred.

 

shopping

Record Traffic Masks a More Calculated Holiday Shopper

• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

 

The National Retail Federation reports that a record 202.9 million people shopped between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday this year, easily topping last year’s 197 million and beating NRF’s own forecast by about 16 million. The trade group says the blowout weekend keeps spending on track for holiday sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, crossing the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

It’s not that there aren’t pressures on people, trade group execs said. It’s just that shoppers build a “moat” around December spending, even if they cut back in other areas. “Holiday spending and holiday shopping is an essential part of the budget,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said on a press call, calling the five-day stretch “a very, very solid beginning to the holiday season.”

The survey-based tally shows 129.5 million consumers shopped in stores, up 3% from last year, and 134.9 million shopped online, up 9%. Almost all weekend shoppers bought holiday-related items, spending an average of $338 — up from $316 a year ago and the highest since 2019. About two-thirds of that spending went to gifts.

Other data sets tell a similarly upbeat — if heavily promo-driven — story. Adobe Analytics says Cyber Monday generated $14.25 billion in online sales, up 7.1% year over year, with Cyber Week reaching $44.2 billion, up 7.7%. Steep discounts in electronics, toys and apparel did much of the work. Buy now/pay later usage hit a record $1.03 billion on Cyber Monday, up 4.2%, as more shoppers spread payments over time.

Mastercard SpendingPulse estimates Black Friday retail sales rose 4.1% from last year, with ecommerce up 10.4% and in-store sales up 1.7%. “Consumers are showing incredible savviness this season,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, in the announcement. “They’re navigating an uncertain environment by shopping early, leveraging promotions, and investing in wish-list items.”

The NRF's top destinations for gift shopping? Supermarkets, at 47%, followed by online at 45%.

NRF chief economist Mark Matthews said consumers are “very, very promotional, very sales-focused,” and more attuned to price comparisons than ever. For retailers, the record traffic and mid-single-digit sales gains are welcome. But with much of that strength tied to discounts and BNPL, the holiday surge looks more like a protected splurge than proof that broader consumer jitters have melted away.

 Just thought you might want to know where some of the ad dollars are going this holiday season.

and remember the importance of local-direct: Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Radio’s Festive Flippers See Early 40% Audience Gain Across US

By

 Cameron Coats

 -

December 3, 2025

0

As Thanksgiving officially kicked off the holiday season last week, it was radio that enjoyed the feast as sleigh bells brought listeners back in force. Stations from Biloxi to LA that flipped to all-Holiday formats saw huge in-car audience spikes across 15 US markets.

The measurement, which tracked more than 1.3 million connected vehicles through Xperi’s DTS AutoStage Broadcaster Portal between November 25-30, showed a 40.4% average increase in audience share for holiday music stations, with consistent gains in every market measured, demonstrating the widespread seasonal lift tied to format switches.

Portland’s KKCW posted the largest share increase at 68.4%, followed by Washington, DC’s WASH (61.7%) and Cincinnati’s WRRM (56.2%). San Francisco’s KOIT and Boston’s WMJX rounded out the top five at 55.0% and 53.6%, respectively.

Other major markets mirrored the trend. Philadelphia’s WBEB rose 46.8%, Chicago’s WLIT climbed 42.1%, and Dallas’s KDGE increased 40.3%. Even smaller markets showed measurable gains: Biloxi’s WMJY up 34.0%, Salt Lake City’s KSFI up 31.5%, and Lexington’s WMXL up 22.4%.

The AutoStage dataset captured listener movement in real time as audience share rose steadily from Thanksgiving Day through the weekend. Top-performing stations saw their share nearly double by November 30. KKCW in Portland grew from 9.3% to 15.6%, while WASH in Washington, DC, increased from 3.9% to 6.3% over the same period.

All metrics came following enhancements to the DTS AutoStage Broadcaster Portal in November, which now provides audience analytics to 250 US markets.

These results even outperform Katz Media Group’s 2024 review of 102 PPM-measured stations, which found that switching to all-holiday formats drove 34.4% growth in Average Quarter-Hour listening and 17.7% gains in cumulative audience.

The best news for advertisers? That festive boom directly translates to seasonal commerce. Critical Mass Media and iHeartMedia found that 98% of holiday music listeners say Christmas radio gets them into the holiday spirit, while 90% say it makes them more excited to shop, and 83% say it signals time to start shopping. Three-quarters are more likely to purchase from companies advertised on holiday stations.

 

Commentary

Social Media Is Organic -- Why Isn't Your Content?

• by Amber Burns , Eva Wasko , December 1, 2025

Today, consumers head to TikTok before Google, and word-of-mouth often starts with content creators. Yet most social media campaigns are cut downs and crops of existing creative campaigns.

That’s a critical missed opportunity. Social offers a platform for different, and especially meaningful, content ideas and applications -- if you’re willing to start from it.

Put social teams in upfront strategy sessions. Social teams have valuable insight into what moves your consumers to move their friends. Using them as social “extensions” once copywriters and designers have developed the big idea wastes this resource (and deprives the brand of priority intel). When you put social pros at the creative table from the start, you get core ideas that can inspire a community.

Get chronically online. Younger hires often worry they’ll be judged if they appear to be on their phones too much. Flip that script. You want everyone working on content to stay on top of the dialogue and trends happening across platforms, so they can master the nuances of each. That’s what makes the work relevant. Someone who doesn’t speak French cannot prepare anyone for a trip to Paris.

Let creators create. Good creators are brand architects, not just media channels. They understand how to build a brand, they understand their audience, and they’re masters at connecting the two.

Grouping influencer marketing and creator relations into paid media fails to recognize or unleash the organic power creators provide. If you put them at the forefront of creative, they will produce ideas and meaningful content their communities will propel. Give them the autonomy to recommend real-time adjustments, and they’ll keep the brand on board with tastes and trends as they take off.

Recognize social’s big idea power. As an industry, we’re stuck in the rut of envisioning ideas in 30-second spots and heavily designed OOH campaigns. Social yields deeper clues into how communities see and express themselves; building from them produces breakthrough content. For example, Workday’s campaign for LinkedIn leans into the overuse of the phrase “rockstar” on the platform by partnering with an actual rockstar, Billy Idol, to disrupt feeds while simultaneously promoting its services. The campaign was specific to conversations taking place on LinkedIn and how the platform is uniquely used. It wins because Workday understands the culture of that space and lets natives develop an authentic language.

Social builds on connections that spread. That starts with letting insiders take the lead.

 

Commentary

Too Fast for FAST TV? Buckle Your Seatbelts

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, November 26, 2025

Worried about the latest data showing the entire connected TV (CTV) ecosystem is seeing more maturation?

What does this mean for businesses that are seemingly defying that trend -- FAST networks? Very little, apparently.

With consumer pricing for all products continuing to rise -- as well as premium subscription-based streaming platforms seeing nonstop price hikes -- will we see more TV subscribers flocking to Tubi, Roku Channel, Pluto TV and scores of other free, ad-supported/streaming platforms?

Even if you are a legacy TV company, you don’t want to leave any missing advertising dollars on the floor in this marketplace.

FAST is almost solely dependent on the ad business. And this comes as some big media holding companies have trimmed their advertising forecasts in 2025.

From a consumer experience perspective, maturity is still a ways off. Perhaps too much advertising on FAST platforms would result in a poor user experience and could cap viewing. Analysts worry that cost per unit (CPM) pricing would then suffer some declines.

And then there is the measurement issue. Standardizing viewing metrics seems far off for brands that want to analyze comparisons for proposed media campaigns.

Until then, no worries. Why? Double-digit percentage growth in all key areas is still on track to come in 2026 and well beyond with more viewers, channel count expansion and rising ad dollars.

Mordor Intelligence estimates that the global FAST market will have compounded average growth of over 17% through the next five years, rising to $27.14 billion. This year is estimated to hit $12.26 billion.

Right now there are 1,850 active FAST channels globally, up 14% since the first quarter of this year, and over 70% higher since 2023, according to Nielsen’s Gracenote.

Viewing is much on the same trend line. Next year, hours are likely to grow 30-50% over 2025 in the U.S. in many markets, according to eMarketer.

So, if FAST continues to get top speed, start placing your bets on who could be running out of gas. Soon?

 

Commentary

TV, Movie Discovery Continue to Benefit from Social Media

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Today

Legacy TV and movie discovery continue to see many benefits from social media -- in terms of marketing and content discovery.

At the same time, social media does much to serve its own content in terms of getting popular appeal and usage.

New research from S&P Global Market Intelligence finds young media consumers are served very well. Seventy-three percent of Gen Zers say they get better recommendations for TV and movies from social media than the broader online video-services platforms -- which can include those owned by legacy media companies.

Overall, 76% of Gen Zers also say “social media services create more content that is personalized for me than TV/video services.”

As expected, older boomers and seniors have a different behavior track -- although the trend is improving. Twenty-four percent say they get better recommendations on TV and movies from social media than other services and 32% get more personalized video content from social media than anywhere else.

In terms of daily time spent on social media, activity is still rising -- especially among Gen Zers, who spent 5.1 hours per day in the third quarter this year -- up from 4.5 hours in the first quarter of 2023.

At the other end of those audience demographics are boomers and seniors at 1.5 hours a day -- at nearly the same level (1.6 hours) in the first quarter of 2023.

Looking specifically at the percentage of social-media users and their different levels of time spent on services, 31% of TikTok users can spend more than two hours a day on the service -- higher than users on Facebook, Instagram, Discord and Pinterest.

By comparison, 16% of Facebook users spend two or more hours on services, compared to 9% with Pinterest. Roughly 50% of users spend less than an hour a day on non-TikTok social media.

S&P research comes from 2,500 respondents via a survey done in the third quarter of this year. For the individual social media research, 627 respondents were surveyed for TikTok compared to 1,593 for Facebook, 196 for Discord, 1,045 for Instagram and 412 for Pinterest.

Good Day to you all....We're back

 Hope each of you have had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday and looking forward to the beautiful festive holidays ahead filled with bright colors and joyous times. 

Love to hear from you...so we know you got this message and you enjoyed all the latest TV industry updates and latest news from LeNoble's Media Sales Insights. Email to drphilipjay@gmail.com

Peace!