Most of ads on TV are national so, local-direct has most control and net profit for station management and may help overcome downturns while also be of benefit to sustainable revenue growth: Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Commentary

Tariffs Are Coming - Is TV's Upfront Heading South?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

The stock market -- and advertising markets -- are officially in scare mode. Inflation is now tipping higher, with the expected tariffs in the driver’s seat ready to cause inflation acceleration.

Guess what that might mean for the TV advertising upfront market, which is set to start in a several weeks? (Do we need to spell it out for you?)

Putting aside daily changes from the missives of President Trump, right now automakers should be getting hit with around a 25% tariff on imports of full cars, as well as parts starting April 2.

Prices are estimated to climb around 10% to 15%, depending on whether those tariffs last for any length of time -- not counting in slight monthly adjustments or other permutations.

From all of this, one can imagine that the TV upfront ad market set to start in a few months will be an interesting and perhaps volatile affair -- especially with one of the leading TV advertising categories in dramatic flux.

Hard-pressed U.S. automakers already experienced some major challenges coming out of the pandemic -- resulting in a drop in TV advertising spend. Could that occur again as some car-makers look to pull back?

National TV ad spend was estimated to be down 5% to $1.4 billion in 2024, according to iSpot.tv.

Couple this with potential disruption from possible legal cutbacks to specific pharmaceutical advertising on TV/CTV networks and platforms. An estimated $4 billion was spent on national and local TV, according to iSpot.tv.

Currently TV Watch media-buying sources say the second-quarter scatter market -- traditionally a benchmark for how things go in the upfront market -- is particularly weak at the moment. That means somewhat flat -- if not declining -- pricing.

One bright spot is that 2026 has a heavier-than-usual schedule of live sports content: A Winter Olympics, a FIFA World Cup to build viewership for the usual high-viewer live sports programming from the NFL, the NBA and other live content.

Add in another potential record political advertising season -- for midterm U.S congressional elections -- and media sellers see some hopes of making some growth progress.

Right now? It may seem that in the near term, the steadily moving TV ad market is running out of road -- with tariffs gaining in the rear-view mirror.