Harris Enters Race: Is Political Ad Spend Suddenly Accelerating?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

Political donations are sharply accelerating for Kamala Harris, the new Democrat Presidential candidate, with the campaign raising an eye-popping $140 million in just a few days from small -- not billionaire -- donors. 

Could this signal a higher squeeze on available inventory in local TV markets to come -- and higher pricing? And overall, will political media and marketing make any sharp transitions as a result of this historically rare change in candidates so late in the election period?

It has been only a few days since President Biden pulled out of the race for re-election with Vice President Harris taking over. That has some political marketing executives wondering.

Kara Ullmann, head of political, issue advocacy and government advertising of Seedtag, which focuses on contextual advertising, said: “Harris' advertising campaign as the new Democratic Presidential nominee could drive up prices and reduce available inventory for political ads, especially on premium platforms with limited ad space.”

Typically, there is always some squeeze in the third- and fourth-quarter calendar periods in a Presidential or midterm election-year race as political advertisers can reserve the right to place inventory at the lowest price levels.

But could it get worse? “Non-political advertisers may face similar challenges of limited ad space and higher costs.” 

This sharply rising activity could be a benefit for streaming and connected TV platforms-- especially with Harris’ push to attract younger voters.

Ullmann: “We will see a huge increase in ad spending promoting Harris across CTV over the next few months as the DNC and her campaign work to unite and rally the party.”

The sudden spike could also force the GOP to also raise its game to get Donald Trump re-elected. All this activity follows some major GOP donors' recent efforts to bolster Trump.Recently, X owner  Elon Musk pledged to spend $45 million per month for his campaign.

While the Harris/Democrat National Committee donation will go heavily into efforts for Harris, some of that money will go to down-ballot races for Democrats candidates seeking office or looking to be re-elected.

Prior to this, eMarketer had estimated political advertising would rise 30% this year to $12.3 billion for the 2024 season, over 2020.

Another estimate from AdImpact projected broadcast TV --- mostly local and some national -- to get to $5.4 billion, with local cable TV at $1.9 billion; CTV at $1.5 billion; digital at $1.1 billion; and cable TV national networks at $310 million.

But numbers will surely change now.

The dramatic change in the Democrat Presidential candidate so late in the political season might fuel even more spending -- perhaps in less obvious digital media platforms -- especially with a Presidential race that is projected to be close and an electorate that is increasingly polarized.