"Irrevocable Shift" From TV

 

• by P.J. Bednarski @pjbtweet, 7 hours ago

Two reports today from Moffett Nathanson Research today exhaustively emphasize the radically changed media landscape — and mock the idea that “everyone is gaining share” across the board. 

According to its data, the market capitalization for media stocks has declined a collective $80 billion since 2013. Only Disney, which has added $59 billion, and Netflix, which has added $24 billion have seen their market caps, rose.

 

Here are some amazing stats from the reports:

 

--Google’s U.S. advertising revenues between 2010 and 2015 will have grown by $14.4 billion. That’s greater than the entire TV industry during that same period.

--From 2010 to 2015, CBS, Viacom and 21st Century Fox will probably not show U.S. ad spending growth

 

-- 18-49 TV viewership will continue to drop, 5.5% - 6.5% per year through 2019-20, and Moffett Nathanson says “it’s getting harder to see how CPM inflation in TV and print doesn’t continue to cool.

 

--Digital advertising will outstrip TV advertising in 2017.

--It expects national TV ad spending, including dollars spent on TV fare shown online, to decline by a percentage point a yet through 2019. The decline is 3.3% per year on broadcast, 2.5% a year on cable, lessened by the mid to high-teens increase in advertising from TV shows seen on digital platforms.

 

--Disney and Time Warner are the only companies whose digital dollars represent 10% of their cable dollars; Viacom and Scripps networks are trying, and digital represents 7%. of  their cable ad revenues. Everybody else--Fox, AMC, NBC Universal and Discovery, are just at 3% and don’t appear to have a coherent strategy.

 

--Sports is the advertising revenue driver across the board. Companies that have built sports and/or mobile structures able to show full episodes like Hulu, stand to do best. Those are Turner, Viacom and Scripps.

 

The firm called one report, “U.S. Internet Launch: Real & Spectacular,” and the other one centering on traditional electronic media, “U.S. Media: Real and Less Spectacular.”

Emphatically, Moffett Nathanson says, “the changing nature of video consumption is no longer debatable. It can be seen in the data. According to Nielsen’s monthly time-spent data, there has been a massive shift in behavior. Over this period in time (2012-2015), ‘new media’ consumption is up triple digits, time-shifted TV viewing is up double-digits and linear TV usage has bifurcated by age group. Among viewers 12-34, there have been double-digit declines in traditional TV viewing with the greatest weakness seen in consumers 18 to 24.”

 

The reports also show the rise of mobile viewing. Coupled with sports viewership, it’s easy to calculate why Verizon, possibly as early as today, will formally announce its Go90 mobile service that will eventually give customers access to full-length TV and Web-based content. Last week, it also announced a feature that will give users the ability to watch local NFL games in their entirely on their phones without charge.

 

The reports say that while Moffett Nathanson have spent years zeroing in on traditional media, rhetorically joking that it tried to “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” that the growth of digital now so evidently represents. 

“We conclude there is little doubt that both behavior and advertising have shifted irrevocably away from TV."