Big Bump Forecast for Holiday Retail Sales

INSIDERADIO

August 25, 2015

 Good news for radio sales departments aiming to increase retail ad dollars for the crucial November-December shopping season. Retail holiday sales are forecast to grow 5.7% this year, compared to 2014, reaching $885.70 billion. That’s the biggest bump since the 6.3% rise in 2011. In a new outlook, eMarketer has nearly doubled the 3.2% holiday sales growth rate it predicted earlier this year. Why the upward revision? "Gas station sales, which make up roughly 12% of overall retail sales, dropped rather dramatically in late 2014," said eMarketer analyst Monica Peart. "Increases in real income from wages, further decreases in unemployment and an increased willingness to spend in traditional retail categories that missed out on the windfall in gas prices earlier on in the year should also drive growth." Holiday retail sales have been rising steadily for the past four years, from $786.57 billion in 2012. The percent of fourth quarter retail sales they represent has remained largely steady, forecast to account for 68.3% of Q4 retail sales this year. Retail ecommerce holiday sales have been growing at a faster double-digit clip and are on track to increase 13.9% this year. But they’re expected to make up just 9% of total retail holiday season sales in 2015. Mobile will play a part in ecommerce growth this holiday season, with eMarketer calling for a 32.2% increase in full-year 2015—more than double the 14.2% increase forecast for retail ecommerce sales as a whole. The biggest growth will come in smartphone retail mcommerce. By the end of 2016, 25% of all retail ecommerce sales in the U.S. will take place via mobile devices, according to eMarketer.

 

Looks like radio is the star performer for quick serve restaurants (QSR). Here's proof:

QSRs Super-Size Their Radio Order. Whether it’s targeting consumers taking end of summer vacations or heading back to school, quick-serve restaurants gorged themselves on radio advertising last week. McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, Taco Bell and Subway were among the top 35 highest volume radio users. Burger King, in particular, super-sized its radio order. With 25,872 spots airing on stations tracked by Media Monitors, McDonald’s was at the front of the line, ranking No. 6 among overall radio advertisers for the week of August 17-23. That’s in line with the 26,819 the Golden Arches ran the week before. McD’s had plenty of company on the airwaves. Burger King ranked 10th with 21,674 commercials after not placing in the top 100 one week earlier. Burger King recently spiced up its menu offering with the Extra Long Jalapeño Cheeseburger and Fiery Chicken Fries. Wendy’s was close behind at No. 11 with 19,950 spots. Wendy’s went heavier on CHR listeners where it ranked third overall at the format. Both McDonalds’ and Wendy’s total radio spot counts were in line with the previous week. Further down the tally are Taco Bell at No. 28 with 12,651 (close to the 13,377 it placed the previous week) and Subway at No. 33. With 11,591 play counts, Subway was down from 16,244 one week earlier. Further back at No. 55 were Jimmy John’s (6,251), Jack in the Box at No. 69 (5,480) and Dunkin Donuts at No. 87 (4,756).