medialife
Close races and a Republican push drive local TV to huge gains
November 4, 2014
Political ad spending has exploded since the 2010 Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court, which lifted bans on political spending by corporations. With lots of money flowing to special interest groups and candidates, every election cycle is sparking record spending, and this year is no different. Though final numbers won’t be out for a couple more weeks, analysts say total advertising will climb past $1.2 billion, up slightly from 2010. The bulk of that has gone to local television, still the most popular form of political advertising, though digital continues to siphon off some money. Spending by special interest groups is up this year, too, and figures to continue to grow for the 2016 presidential election, where spending should start earlier than ever after Tuesday’s election finishes up. Evan Tracey, senior vice president at National Media and former president at Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, talks to Media Life about which states had the most spending, how spending compared to past years, and what to expect in 2016.
How would you characterize political ad spending during these midterms? Has it been more or less than you expected, or about what you expected?
It’s about what I expected. Midterms seem to take forever to get going then they become a very intense race to the finish line. Usually, you see shifts of ad spending between states and races as the election evolves. This was the case in 2014, where some states have seen noteworthy flows of late ad spending while others seem to be less competitive.
Additionally, it looks like there is going to be a runoff, or two, in the future. If these potential runoffs hold the balance of party control of the U.S. Senate, then we will see these runoff states’ spending move into record territory.
The biggest surprise in 2014 is just how close so many of these governor races have turned out to be.
Is spending on track to break any records? Why or why not?
I am not sure if nationally it will be an all time record or not, but it sure seems like we are on pace for record spending from the midterms.
Basically, the external political factors such as party control of the U.S. Senate, and issues such as Obamacare, taxes, and immigration, combined with geopolitical factors like ISIS, Ebola and others all drove a lot of interest and money into the midterm elections.
There will be record spending in a number of states. States such as North Carolina, Florida and Colorado will end up at $100 million or more in ad spending, and states like Iowa and Arkansas will not be far off this pace.
Which states saw the biggest spending and why?
Any state with a competitive U.S. Senate race was a winner this cycle. So states such as Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Georgia, Iowa and Kansas, just to name a few.
Other states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Georgia, Florida, Maryland and Massachusetts are all benefiting from closer than expected governor races.
How much of the deluge of political advertising came from PACs? Was that up or down from the last midterm?
Outside groups continue to play a larger role in strategy, messaging and spending in political campaigns.
Coming into this election, we heard that there was a lack of competitive races at the House of Representatives and governor levels. Did that end up having an impact on spending?
I don’t think there was ever a lack of competitive house and gubernatorial races, but the excitement and attention has certainly been focused on the U.S. Senate. There were still quite a few competitive U.S. House races, many caused by Democrats having to protect their incumbents in the “blue states” such as New York, California and Minnesota.
With governors races we saw some states turn out to be less competitive than expected–large states like California, New York and Texas under-performed, and this was a net negative for ad spending.
However, many states were more competitive than expected. These included states like Maryland, Massachusetts, Kansas and Connecticut, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.
The presidential race is still another two years away, but do you have any feeling for what spending will look like?
The 2016 race is going to be wide open, competitive and expensive. I would expect to see robust ad spending during the primaries, and I would not be at all surprised to see a well-funded candidate or two outside of Republican and Democratic Party’s in 2016 adding more fuel to this fire.
In all likelihood, it will be another ad-driven election season, and it will start early.
Was there any gain in digital political advertising? Why or why not?
Yes, digital spending will have a larger share in 2014 for our clients. This was driven by a greater use of data and targeting, as well as a desire and ability to reach more voters, on more screens at more times and in more places.
Finally, why do politicians and special interest groups continue to spend the bulk of their money on local television?
Likely voters watch a lot of local TV.
Local TV is still the biggest and best strategic communications tool available for campaigns to reach voters on a large scale.
Local TV is a big megaphone, and provides both reach and frequency to campaigns, committees and PACs.
[And] local TV helps all of the other more targeted communications break through and be more effective.
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