Still Counting on the Power of Television

By STUART ELLIOTT
Published: December 6, 2010

TV or not TV? On Madison Avenue next year, leading forecasters say, that is not likely to be the question.


Peter Pereira/The Standard Times of New Bedford, via Associated Press
An analyst said TV was still gaining share of the ad market, to 40.7 percent in 2010 from 37 percent in 2005. And a even more robust growth for 2011, according to the following companies reporting forecasting for 2011:

Google Inc
Interpublic Group of Companies Incorporated
Sony Corporation
Publicis Groupe SA
CBS Corp
Logitech International SA
Intel Corp
Best Buy Company Incorporated

A major reason those forecasters are predicting that the advertising industry will recover faster from the recession than they had expected — both in the United States and globally — is the continued, strong demand among marketers for commercial time on television. That is being demonstrated, they say, in most developed markets as well as in emerging markets like China.

The robustness of the ardor for television ads is startling some forecasters, who had believed that the intensifying demand for online advertising would cut into sales for TV as it has for, say, newspapers. That does not seem to be the case, even as they point to a sharp climb in spending for Internet ads as another reason the recovery will proceed — and even gain momentum — into next year.

“The success story, perhaps surprisingly, has been television,” said Steve King, chief executive at the ZenithOptimedia media division of the Publicis Groupe.

Consumers’ embrace of technologies like digital TV, HDTV and DVRs helps keep them watching, Mr. King said, which helps keep marketers buying commercial time.

Mr. King spoke on Monday during a panel at the opening of the 38th annual UBS global media and communications conference, which is being held in Midtown Manhattan through Wednesday. His remarks were echoed by the two other panelists as they offered forecasts for how 2010 would end and what 2011 might bring.

“TV will be adding about half of all growth next year,” said a second panelist, Adam Smith, futures director at GroupM, the media unit of WPP.

Later, in an interview, Mr. Smith elaborated on why he thought that would be the case. For one thing, he said, television viewership is being propelled by people who are increasingly watching certain shows to share comments with friends and family in real time on social media like Facebook and Twitter.

That is particularly stimulating live viewing of programs, he added, “which is what is monetized” by the providers of TV content like the broadcast networks and cable channels.

A case in point is the demand for commercials during Super Bowl XLV, to be broadcast by Fox on Feb. 6. All available ad time is already sold out, and it sold out earlier than is usual, despite rates that are estimated at up to $3 million for each 30-second spot.

Even marketers that had never advertised in the previous XLIV — er, 44 — Super Bowls are buying spots, among them blue-chip brands like Best Buy and Mercedes-Benz.

“Television continues to be resilient,” said another panelist, Brian Wieser, global director for forecasting at Magna Global, part of the Mediabrands division of the Interpublic Group of Companies, even as other media like mobile and the Internet are likely to grow faster.

In fact, Mr. Wieser said, he has added a category, called pay TV, to those he tracks in producing his forecasts. The new category covers television variants like cable, satellite and Internet TV delivered by phone companies.

Mr. Wieser said he foresaw no dire effects on traditional television from the growth of what is known as over-the-top TV, which is delivery of programming through the Internet by means like the new Google TV, developed by Google, Intel, Logitech and Sony.

There could be 20 million to 25 million people watching TV that way by 2020, he added. That would be a fraction of those viewers still watching TV through cable systems, satellite or even over the air.

“Despite all the other viewing options, most people still like watching TV at home on a TV set,” said Steve Sternberg, the longtime television research analyst who writes a blog, The Sternberg Report.

As for access to TV on additional screens like PCs, tablets or smartphones, it could “enable people to sample shows they may not have had time for on traditional TV,” Mr. Sternberg wrote in an e-mail, as well as give viewers a chance to watch more episodes of the shows they typically watch on traditional TV.

The health of television as an ad medium clearly delighted another speaker at the conference.

“This is more like it,” said David F. Poltrack, chief research officer at the CBS Corporation and president of its CBS Vision unit. “After two years that have not been pleasant for any of us, things are looking up.”

Television is increasingly about “the development, nurturing and harvesting of franchise programming,” Mr. Poltrack said, that viewers will want to watch on conventional TV sets, the Internet, mobile devices, video on demand, DVDs and in syndication.

Among them, he listed series like the “CSI” shows on CBS, “Grey’s Anatomy” on ABC, “The Office” on NBC and “American Idol” on Fox.

Three drama series that CBS introduced for the 2010-11 season — “Blue Bloods,” The Defenders” and “Hawaii Five-0” — are already profitable, from their network licensing fees and international sales, Mr. Poltrack said, with additional revenue like syndication in the offing.

Even better, in Mr. Poltrack’s (CBS) eye, all three series are being produced by the CBS Television Studios division of CBS.

All the forecasters on the opening panel predicted that 2010 would end with an increase in worldwide ad spending compared with last year. Their forecasts were for an increase of 4.9 percent, from Mr. King; 5.9 percent, from Mr. Smith; and 6.9 percent, from Mr. Wieser.

They all also predicted an increase in worldwide ad spending for 2011 compared with 2010. Their forecasts were for an increase of 4.6 percent, from Mr. King; 5.4 percent, from Mr. Wieser; and 5.8 percent, from Mr. Smith.

Another reason to get out and help local-direct businesses in your DMA grow their business with your help....Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Ad Spending Is on the Rise, but Growth Rate May Slow

Advertising Age
What's the Deal? Marketers Are Going Private and Public, Buying and Selling, Focusing on Core Brands

By Bradley Johnson
Published: December 20, 2010

1. Print media defined here by Ad Age as newspapers plus magazines. For this chart, Ad Age aggregated MagnaGlobal's media segments as follows: Broadcast is TV plus radio; print is newspapers plus magazines. Magna includes mobile in internet; and cinema in out of home. More info: magnaglobal.com. Source: MagnaGlobal's 2011 Advertising Forecast (December 2010).
CHICAGO (AdAge.com) -- Marketers in 2011 will boost U.S. ad spending 2.8%, down slightly from 2010's 3.2% growth rate, according to the average of three major media-agency forecasts.

Ad Age Annual 2011
Key stats and rankings from Ad Age DataCenter reports
Worldwide ad spending will grow 5.3% in the new year, below the 5.9% growth seen in 2010, according to the average of three forecasts from Interpublic Group of Cos.' MagnaGlobal, Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia and WPP's Group M.
U.S. ad growth in 2010 turned out better than predicted. A year ago, forecasters figured 2010 U.S. ad spending would be flat or down a bit.

Forecasts for 2011 suggest moderate growth in ad spending, reflecting the economy's slow recovery.

Slow ad growth is a welcome change from the recent past: 2009 U.S. ad spending tumbled 11.9% (average of three media agencies), the biggest drop since the Great Depression.

The 18-month recession officially ended in June 2009. U.S. measured-media spending turned north in first-quarter 2010, the first year-over-year quarterly gain since first-quarter 2008, according to WPP's Kantar Media.

Americans Ignore Internet Ads Far More Than TV

MediaDailyNews
by Wayne Friedman, Friday, December 3, 2010, 10:55 AM

A majority of Americans say they ignore Internet ads -- far more than television, radio and newspaper ads.

Some 63% of consumers say they tend to ignore or disregard all Internet ads. Among this group, 43% say they don't pay attention to banner ads and 20% ignore search ads. The research was produced by AdweekMedia/Harris Poll, from a recent online survey done by Harris Interactive.

Farther down the list was television ads -- only a 14% number. Radio was at 7%; newspapers ads, 6%. Overall, almost all Americans say they ignore some ads -- 91%.

Looking at the Internet space, men and women ignore ads at about the same levels -- 42% for men; 45% for women.

When it comes to age, older U.S. media consumers 55+ ignore ads on TV the most -- at 20%. This compares with 14% for those 45-54 years old, 13% for those 35-44; and 9% for those between 18 and 34 years old.

Younger Americans ignore radio ads the most -- 11% of those 18-34 -- compared to 6% of those 55 years and older. 40% of those 18-34 ignore Internet banner ads.

When it comes to education, 46% of those who have some college and those who are college graduates say they ignore banner ads, compared to just 40% of those who have a high school degree or less.

Could this be a good piece to share with clients whose $$$ are getting larger on the I-net than on TV or radio? Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Local TV Continues to Engage, Inform, Inspire

MediaPostsBlogs
by Jack Loechner, Yesterday, 10:30 AM

A recently released a study Hearst Television shows that local television news is more effective in engaging viewers' attention to advertising than other TV program genres and competitive media.
The primary objectives of the study, says Frank N. Magid Associates, is to determine the key attributes to be used for television advertising sales based on the performance of local TV news relative to other genres and other media platforms across the following categories:

Importance.Emotional attachment.Level of engagement in advertising. Advertising effectiveness
49% of viewers ranked local TV news first as "... a major part of my daily routine." Broadcast prime time dramas and sitcoms ranked second (47%) followed by:

Broadcast network prime time reality TV (42%)
Cable network prime time dramas/movies (37%)
Cable news (34%)

45% of respondents said they "pay more attention" to local TV news than most other TV genres, while cable news was cited by 39%. 81% cited local TV news as the "most important" news source among local, network broadcast and cable TV news.

The largest number of respondents cited local TV newscasts as being the most effective medium for delivering awareness of products and services advertised during the programming. Local news ranked #1, with 27% of respondents replying that ads during local TV newscasts "keep me in the know with regards to products/services." Informational talk shows, was cited second by 24%.

Local newscasts were considered a better platform to most other TV genres in terms of:
Driving purchase of products Trustworthiness and Advertising products that appeal to the viewer.

Local TV news is also relatively "DVR-proof," says the study. Only 17% of respondents cited having recorded local TV newscasts for later viewing. 57% said they never, rarely or only sometimes fast-forward through portions of recorded local TV newscasts. By contrast, 69% of respondents said they most of the time or always fast-forward through portions of cable network prime time dramas/movies.

Ads on local TV news websites were found to do a better job than advertisements on most other types of websites in terms of:

Keeping viewers in the know regarding products and services
Driving purchase of products
Trustworthiness
Advertising products that appeal to the viewer

Local direct revenue can not only help put dollars in the bank for your station but help grow client businesses in your DMA with some commercials placed within the campaign you recommend when utilizing news programming...Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Scripps Forecast: Modest 2011 TV Ad Growth, Newspapers Still Suffering

by Wayne Friedman, Yesterday, 11:20 AM

E.W. Scripps says its television stations will see modest advertising increases in the first half of 2011.

Television ad revenues will increase in the low- to mid-single-digit range -- which comes on top of a very strong fourth-quarter period -- that other TV station groups have also seen.

With about two-thirds of the fourth quarter completed, Scripps said television ad revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to be 35% to 40% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2009 -- most of this fueled by high political advertising in October.

Long-term, Scripps says advertising conditions will return to pre-recessionary budgets.

"Several key advertising categories at our television stations are returning to 2008 levels," said Rich Boehne, president and chief executive officer, in a release. "Scripps is fortunate that our financial flexibility allows us to focus during this period on improving the news product for our audiences and enhancing the marketplaces we create for our advertisers."

Next year, levels will grow despite tougher comparisons of a advertising rebound in local television advertising that started in December 2009.

Scripps' newspaper business forecast will continue to see declines. A year-over-year drop for newspaper revenue, which was down 6.8% in the third quarter, will see another moderate fall in the fourth quarter.

Revenue trends will generally continue in 2011 in the negative, but at slightly better levels than recently witnessed. Boehne said: "The trends in newspaper advertising are slightly more encouraging."

Slow Your Selling to Speed Your Customers' Buying

Business Week
Today's Tip Contributor on December 3, 2010
Kevin Davis, President, TopLine Leadership, Reno, Nev.

One of the main ingredients to successful selling is utilizing a client's needs analysis as a problem solving approach..while the proposal,which is the outcome becomes more solution based. As a result, the client appreciates the extra effort and the reward is a long-term relationship and annuity-like income for the professional salesperson. Selling the "project or package" of the month does little to develop a solution for the client. Isn't the needs of the client foremost in successful business relationships? Taking a little extra time while performing a client needs analysis while concentrating on the client' best interests is the main reason the most successful professionals in the media business make the most money. In the most successful organizations, even in the midst of a chaotic recessionary environment, gone are the days when the company dictates what they want a salesperson is to sell without discerning the real needs of the client. Yet old-school sales managers still have to make their numbers so often they are less concerned with the needs of the client....just "bring in the order is the game of the day." Short-term revenue solutions for a company, such as quarterly projects, works in the opposite direction of building lasting relationships. The project can still be included in a proposal if it fits the needs of the client' objectives. (Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D. Executive Decision Systems, Inc., Littleton, Co).

Almost anyone who is trying to sell has been taught that a faster pitch means a faster close. In fact, the reverse is true. No matter what it is you’re trying to sell, you can often speed up the customers’ buying process by slowing down your sales process.

One type of "speed mistake" is being passive while customers define their needs and then rushing straight to a solution when they are done. If you are not involved in helping customers define their needs, they are not likely to see your solution as a perfect fit. Instead, slow down your pitch. Get them to talk about the reasons they need a solution (hopefully exposing additional needs that your solution can meet in the process) and think about the consequences of inaction. Taking this slow road can shift the odds in your favor and make your customers more likely to buy, because they will see more value to making a change soon.

Here’s a second speed mistake: immediately starting to pitch your solution when prospects call. If you do so, you’ve failed to ask your prospect a vital question: What steps have you taken so far in your decision-making process? The answer is critical to helping you shape an appropriate response. Get prospects who have just started thinking about the idea to talk more about their needs and problems, so you can evaluate whether they are likely to become serious about purchasing.

With prospects who have already met with one or more of your competitors, have a good idea of what they want, and are now shopping for a good price, your hurdle is much higher, because they are basing their decision on buying criteria that one of your competitors likely helped to shape. If you can, get them to talk about their needs and see if you can find opportunities to introduce additional buying criteria (that your solution meets, naturally). If you can identify a new need late in the buying cycle, you can quickly go from laggard to leader in the customer’s eyes.

The mismatch between selling speed and buying speed is the root cause of many lost sales. Don’t make that mistake anymore. Take the time to look at the purchase through your customer’s eyes so you can do a better job of providing the right kinds of information at the right points in their buying process. Doing so will differentiate you from your competition.

A Special Time of Year

Now that Thanksgiving has passed and the hope, joy and comfort of the holiday has passed, I wonder how many stop and think of how blessed we are compared to the hundreds of thousands of our fellow countrymen who have had little or nothing to celebrate. I believe it's time to reflect on this special time of year that in our country there are thousands who may not have found these times as joyful and rewarding as we have found for ourselves. Perhaps it's time to ask ourselves, "What have we done to help those around us who may be suffering from the frustrations and angst of long unemployment, the loss of their home and sometimes even an entire family? Each day I get sick of the news which reports our feeding people and rebuilding lives in other countries which is gracious, well and good...but are we often forgetting our very own? I believe we spend more time in other countries than we do right here at home! We have so many Americans whose lives are filled with tragedy each day, I think we need to concentrate on really helping them....perhaps more so than those who belong to another country. Yes...I see the daily TV videos of wonderful organizations reaching out to provide for our fellow Americans who still suffer from hunger, little clothings and not much of a home...but I often wonder at this time of year, do we really reach inside ourselves and understand the true meaning of each of our wonderful holidays during this special time of year? As my wife Donna drives me across town to see the doctors...I see people who walk with baskets from grocery stores filled with clothes and their personal belongings knowing well they have no home and maybe no family or warm bed on which to sleep. Yes I see this many times during the year but ...I especially feel it more during these holidays. I wonder, What can each of us do that might enrich their lives...even for but a moment? We are always so engrossed with our work and our lives but it only takes a little time out of our busy day or weekend to offer a meal, a warm coat, an hour of our time to those who go to sleep each night not knowing if they will have a meal for their family or as I said, a bed on which to sleep..or perhaps a new job and, maybe a new beginning come morning.

I am truly grateful for my wonderful family who even in distance, surrounds me with their comfort and love and the knowledge that they are blessed to be able to celebrate with a little more than the simple comforts of life. I am blessed having regained my health after a year-long battle resulting from three surgeries and a nasty bout of two staph infections picked up at the hospital. I look forward to seeing each day getting better so that one day I will walk and stand without pain. I know I will have to continue to take the six antibiotics each day for many years to come....But, as long as I can give something to others...even an inspirational thought about a better tomorrow...or to be able to regain some momentum to once again rejoin the Metro Denver Volunteers, whose work enables others' lives to become enriched by the projects and non-profits they serve..and the smiles they bring to many each day...I can then say...I am more fulfilled during this special time of year. For many, Chanukkah begins tonight, December 1st, and lasts for eight wonderful days and the candles that are lit light for each day remembering us that when the Temple of the Jews was destroyed centuries ago and when they ventured inside to begin rebuilding it as they have had to do each time it was destroyed, they discovered in the darkness of ruin but one small urn or lamp with only enough oil to last for but a day...but behold!... a miracle happened and the oil burned for eight days...Hence the "Celebration of Lights" as it is called, Hanukkah. Right after Hanukkah comes the magnificent beauty of Christmas....a time to celebrate the joy of sharing and giving....the smells of sweet things in the oven..and the gorgeous lights which adorn the homes and buildings in the city. But again, I ask myself, during this holiday that is filled with thousands of people streaming malls and filling bags of plenty, are we doing enough to reach out and do something of value to bring some small thread of hope to some of those who hover beneath bridges on freezing nights or those who can not buy more than one simple meal for their family? What joy can we to bring them...during this special time of year?

I wish all who read this little blog a most wonderful holiday season and may G-d bless you and your families and homes with continued joy and abundance...especially good health...and a very Happy New Year...with employment for those in need, a health plan from which we can all benefit...and the recovery of a long and painful economy...and a special wish that those whom we elected will serve our country...by the people and for the people and that finally, our congress and senate can come together as one nation filled with liberty and justice to serve us all....and G-d Bless America!! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.