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Local TV Faces Strong Crosswinds in 2026

Oct 23, 2025| Paige Albiniak| Add comment

Unpredictable economic, regulatory and technology environments will keep broadcasters on their toes next year, says BIA’s Rick Ducey.

00:26Daily Market Update

NEW YORK — Broadcasters face confusing crosswinds as they plan for the immediate future, with macroeconomics, regulation and technology all in heavy flux, said Rick Ducey, managing director, BIA Advisory Services, at TVNewsCheck’s Local TV Strategies conference at NAB New York on Wednesday.

The immediate forecast for broadcasters is positive, with political spending expected to come in strong in 2026. Local TV, including cable, is predicted to rake in nearly $4 billion in political spend next year, or about 45% of the total amount spent on local video, while connected TV (CTV) and over-the-top (OTT) offerings will snag nearly $1 billion, or 11% of the total spend. PC/laptop video, including social media, will take in 13.5% at $1.2 billion, BIA estimates. 

Beyond the overall crosswinds, there are several factors in play that make it hard to predict how politicians, campaigns and Super PACs will spend in 2026. The Supreme Court is expected to decide on a case that could loosen regulations on political spending. Analysts are still waiting to see how Democrats are going to position and place their messaging, and redistricting could impact the competitiveness of many local races. 

As a baseline, BIA predicts that in 2025 the total local advertising marketplace will equal nearly $30 billion, with local over-the-air TV taking nearly half of that investment at $14.3 billion. Breaking that down further, local PC/laptop video will nab 16.3% of that at nearly $5 billion, mobile video will take 12.1% at $3.6 billion. CTV/OTT and local cable tie at 7.4% each or $2.2 billion. Finally, digital out-of-home sweeps up 5.1% of that money, equaling $1.5 billion. 

While political spending brings big dollars to broadcasters every other year, and local over-the-air broadcast is still the biggest platform for local advertising by far, core spending on local broadcasting continues to decline, while CTV/OTV makes inroads. In 2023, core spending on local TV hit $15.6 billion. That declined to $14.9 billion in 2024, $14.3 billion in 2025 and is predicted to fall again to $13.9 billion in 2026. Spend is moving to CTV/OTT because marketers prefer the ease of buying targeted campaigns on self-serve platforms where they can also get immediate performance metrics. 

“Campaigns layered on top add value and pizazz to campaigns so that’s where we see marketers going,” Ducey said.

Looking at the biggest spenders on local media in the past year, Ducey identified real estate, which is up 10.4% to $6.12 million; restaurants, up 7.8% to $15 million; finance/insurance, up 4% to $23 million; retail, up 3% to $25.17 million and automotive, up 1.4% to $11.9 million. 

While automotive, typically one of the largest spenders on local media, has been soft due to post-pandemic economic conditions, “it’s still one of the highest growth categories,” Ducey said.

As anyone would expect political dropped off almost completely in off-cycle 2025, declining 83%. Also down are media, healthcare and pharmaceutical, and general services. Pharmaceutical is a huge spender on local media, but the category is potentially facing regulation that could limit pharmaceutical companies’ ability to place advertising on TV. Education is up a bit, 0.3%, but education advertisers are turning to the targeted options of local CTV/OTT. 

Unsurprisingly, CTV/OTT is expected to be the fastest-growing media in 2025, increasing 29.3% from 2024. Categories such as legal services, hospitals, new car dealers, automotive manufacturers, and supermarkets and other grocery stores are all increasing buying on CTV/OTT platforms. New car dealers have upped their spend in this space by about 25%, while the other categories are all up about 30%.

Key vertical spenders on local TV in 2025 are legal services at $1.7 billion, auto manufacturers at $989 million, pharmaceuticals at $882 million, tier 2 automotive at $795.7. million and quick-service restaurants at $703 million. 

As broadcasters plan for the future, competition in the local video marketplace is getting stronger. Big video providers like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney have entered the space with ad-supported video on demand (AVOD) offerings. Consumers are moving off of subscription-based services and on to FAST and AVOD platforms as they look to save money, while short-form vertical and shoppable video are attracting a lot of local eyeballs. For their part, advertisers are seeking targeted cross-platform solutions and automated buying options. And on the technology side, artificial intelligence is coming to advertising, both in terms of generative AI helping to create commercials and machine learning helping to manage the process on the backend. 

But change can come to local broadcast, Ducey said, quoting Microsoft founder Bill Gates who said: “We tend to overestimate what we can achieve in one year and underestimate what we can change in 10.” 

 

Drink Up, Linear TV: But Go Easy on Bubbles and The Sugar Rush

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 9 hours ago

With the backdrop of Warner Bros. Discovery now in full play -- in terms of a possible sale -- think of the linear TV/streaming relationship, as it relates to WBD and other similar legacy media companies, more in relation to modern and more vintage sugary carbonated drinks.

The bottom line for linear TV, the thinking goes, is that it will still be around. But with much less marketplace scale -- with consumers still gulping down lots of quick-satisfying programming thirst-quenchers.

Here is one comparison and/or reference point for linear versus streaming, according to Peter Supino, managing director/senior media analyst at Wolfe Research.

On CNBC on Tuesday, he said to think of linear TV as Diet Coke and/or Coke. And streaming? Monster, Red Bull, or perhaps Celsius (as a CNBC host chimed in). Who is drinking Celsius? TV Watch’s 20-year old daughter, that’s who.

Digging deeper, in age-related attachments, Supino says research shows those 55 and older tend to want to keep linear TV around -- with other research showing younger consumers already abandoning cable, satellite, telco, or even virtual distributors.

All of this makes more sense now in a consolidating linear TV world -- especially where major media companies aren’t quite ready to abandon all old-school media business models.

Of those apparently standing pat on linear TV are: Paramount Skydance, Comcast and yes -- Walt Disney. All of these companies still believe linear TV will be around for some time to come -- even if at different scale levels.

The question, of course, is how low it can go before finding some comfortable financial resting place.

Maybe one should examine what radio went through in the late 1940s/early 1950s versus the budding TV technology that came roaring out the gate in those later years.

You might question why people still drink Diet Coke (which started in 1982) and what innovations can be done around that drink.

A better question is why Coca-Cola started up a similar beverage -- Coke Zero -- in 2005 (and then the brand name changed to Coke Zero Sugar).

The difference may not be all that different health-wise. The amount of caffeine is slightly lower with Coke Zero, and it uses a blend of aspartame and acesulfame potassium. Diet Coke is a more full-on aspartame beverage.

It's really about preference: Diet Coke is “lighter," while Coke Zero is closer in taste to the original Coke.
So is that how we should look at cable TV networks?

Currently analysts would argue there are major differences, with linear virtually all about live programming (or live TV distribution of programs attached to specific daily time schedule). Streaming is almost all about video-on-demand (including growing ‘live’ programming like sports).

Now, the bigger question perhaps: Which one is better for your entertainment and recreational health?

 

Is Recession Pop Really Reshaping Gen Z Spending Habits in 2025?

• by Jim Caruso , Yesterday

To some, Recession Pop is more than music. It is an economic signal. First rising during the 2008 downturn, the upbeat, glittery pop sound is resurging as Gen Z faces its own financial anxieties. But this is not just about music. Gen Z is rewriting how they spend, consume, and choose brands. For marketers, the takeaway is simple: culture is commerce.

Gen Z Spending Habits: Loud, Late-Night, and Culture-Driven

Gen Z leads consumption on cultural platforms like The Mahogany Blog, Noisey, and XXL. Their music tastes lean hip hop, rap, electronic, and pop, with 56% citing pop as a top genre.

They embrace late-night media, with 46% consuming fashion content between midnight and 6 a.m. While 99% prefer short daily bursts (0–15 minutes), they over-index for binge sessions of 1–2 hours. Comedy (95%), crime (54%), and sports (51%) dominate late-night viewing.

When it comes to spending, Gen Z skews toward frequent, high-volume purchases. In apparel, 79% spend $0–99, but 11% buy 101–250 items They also outspend peers on continuity purchases, which include everyday essentials and repeat buys.

Who These Consumers Really Are

Gen Z is a spectrum. Three clear personas emerge for marketers: 

• Socially Conscious Digital Creators: Early-career professionals who treat purchases as cultural signals. Athletic wear, sustainable sneakers, and eco-fashion reflect values as much as style. Winning them requires authenticity, sustainability, and credibility in digital-first spaces.
• Ambitious Grounded Strivers: Young professionals balancing work and family. They invest in Jordans, Nike gear, work attire, and reliable vehicles. For them, purchases support aspiration and responsibility. Brands must show reliability, affordability, and community impact to inspire their loyalty.
• Cultural Prestige Entrepreneurs: Mid-stage professionals who blend business with lifestyle branding. Tesla vehicles, luxury watches, and courtside sports experiences serve as both status symbols and content. These consumers expect brands to deliver credibility, innovation, and cultural relevance.

Why This Matters Now

Despite a cultural wave of Y2K aesthetics and Recession Pop, Gen Z is not nostalgic. They remix cultural signals to amplify their own priorities: authenticity, pragmatism, or prestige.

For marketers, the playbook is clear. Gen Z does not consume culture passively. They harness it. Some spend to signal values. Others invest in their future selves. Still others buy to project status. The brands that win will decode which signal their audience is amplifying and design products, messaging, and campaigns to match.

In downturns, culture becomes currency. Recession Pop is more than a soundtrack. It is a roadmap for how Gen Z spends. Marketers who act now, aligning with these cultural signals, will not just ride the wave. They will define

 Some managers we speak to over time have felt, everything to create new business revenue is what they're now doing. Well, that doesn't always work! And, as what we have seen when the cracks in the lack of new business begins to show or it's slowing down because you as a manager may think you're doing the best thing for the company...! IT'S TOO LATE! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Pat Alacqua

October 14, 2025

Let System 21 lead the way to new business development!

Stretching, Not Scaling: The Quiet Failure Behind Your Success

Pat Alacqua October 14, 2025

A funny thing happens when business growth takes off. Revenue climbs, new customers arrive and momentum feels unstoppable. However, behind closed doors, many leaders quietly admitting “It feels harder…not easier.”

The growth trap is when momentum masks the cracks and a company stretches instead of scales.

The paradox is confounding. Growth should create capacity, yet it often exposes cracks. Teams start firefighting. Leaders can’t stop doing everything themselves. Sales rise but profits flatten. The same energy that feels like winning begins to wear down the business.

Why? Because growth and scale are not the same thing. Growth creates fragility. Scale creates capacity.

Growth is more – more sales, more customers, more activity. It’s easy to celebrate. Still, a business may grow without the proper foundation and simply stretch itself too thin. Hustle and improvisation can carry a young company far, but what once felt like agility becomes fragility. Then good culture becomes loyalty without traction. Committed people spin in place, unsure how to move forward.

Scaling involves creating the infrastructure needed to accommodate growth without introducing chaos. It goes beyond simply hiring more employees or acquiring new tools. It requires developing management systems, execution structures, and leadership capabilities that ensure growth translates into strength rather than stress.

The Hidden Infrastructure of Scale

Companies that succeed during periods of growth don’t merely manage better; they build their operations differently. Their strength comes from what you don’t always see – the infrastructure beneath the surface that supports speed, clarity and alignment. Those systems must evolve at every new level of growth.

Here are three foundational systems that unlock scale:

1. Planning systems

Too many companies treat planning as a once-a-year offsite or a budgeting exercise. Real planning systems go further.

• They align decisions to the assumptions that shape outcomes
• They link long-term goals with weekly execution
• They create space for ongoing strategy inside the business, not just at retreats

Planning isn’t about predicting. In a scaling company, it’s testing what you believe, then identifying the pivots when needed and quickly acting at every level.

2. Execution systems

Execution is where good ideas often die. Without structure, even strong teams default to reaction. Scaling companies redesign roles around outcomes, not personalities. They define who owns what, who makes the decisions and how cross-functional work is accomplished. They build accountability into the structure, not just the culture.

These systems don’t eliminate urgency. They prevent it from becoming the default. They give teams a clear runway to execute without chaos.

3. Disciplined thinking

Effective leaders focus their thinking at the center of both planning and execution. Most growth-stage leaders are doers. However, scale requires builders. Leaders who know how to pause, filter noise from signal, and focus on what moves the business forward are true disciplined thinkers.

Disciplined thinking isn’t just a mindset. Its method involves:

• Thinking and communicating in outcomes, not activities
• Deciding based on structure, not instinct
• Leading by intention, not reaction

This is the leadership mental upgrade growth demands.

Why Most Leaders Wait Until It’s Too Late

If these systems sound like common sense, why are they so rare?

It’s because growth hides the problems – until it doesn’t. When revenue is rising, it’s easy to overlook shaky margins, role confusion or the fact that the team is sprinting on fumes.

When cracks become crises, everything gets harder. You’re overhauling infrastructure under pressure. You’re reassigning roles mid-surge. You’re solving yesterday’s problems while tomorrow’s are arriving at full speed.

That’s when stretched leaders realize you can’t scale what you haven’t built.

Where to Start

You don’t have to build everything at once. But if you’re growing fast and starting to feel the strain, there’s one decisive move you can make right now: Put the infrastructure conversation on the table.

With your leadership team, ask questions like:

• What part of our business is most at risk of breaking as we grow?
• Are we leading with assumptions or just chasing goals?
• Where are we stretched thin because we’re relying on hustle rather than structure or process?

Even that first conversation will surface the cracks and begin aligning your team around what scaling actually requires. From there, you can decide what system to build first – planning, execution or disciplined thinking – and begin building the proper infrastructure.

Many companies benefit from involving someone outside the company to help guide that process. That’s not to say that the team isn’t capable, but the pressure and challenges of growth leave little room to step back and work on the business instead of constantly being in it. The right person, in the right role, brings strategic pattern recognition from experience scaling organizations, along with the hands-on ability to help your team build the systems yourselves.

An experienced outside perspective isn’t about fixing weaknesses. It’s about creating the space to solve the right challenges before they become constraints.

The Leadership Challenge

Every successful company eventually faces the growth trap. The question is whether its leaders evolve in time.

Scaling isn’t about chasing more. It’s about leading differently. It’s about building management systems that grow stronger under pressure and leadership capacity that thrives at every level of the organization.

Growth might feel like the goal, but the ultimate objective is a business that can continue to grow without breaking.

Pat Alacqua is a seasoned business growth strategist who has built his own successful businesses and helps others achieve exponential growth. He founded the Entrepreneur to Enterprise Program to guide leaders on their journey. His new Amazon bestselling book is “Obstacles to Opportunity: Transforming Business Challenges into Triumphs. Learn more at Pat Alacqua.com/book.