COMMENTARY

Spotlight On Local TV News: Viewers Shifting to Streaming from Pay TV?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, December 14, 2022

TV stations' local newscasts are still key for drawing in local market TV viewers -- and with that, local TV station advertisers.

But what if we did not need TV stations as much in the future? Would viewers gravitate more toward streaming and digital outlets?

Couple this with cord-cutting and perhaps one day, traditional or virtual pay TV providers might not have the wherewithal to continue to pay TV stations high retransmission/distribution fees.

VUit (pronounced “view it”), which started up in 2020, believes this is a business of major growth. It is a free, ad-supported, local TV web-based streaming service offering local TV content -- primarily news content but also weather, and sports -- all with in-market, localized advertising.

It comes from Syncbak, a media-technology company focused on streaming used by broadcast stations with the backing of investors like Gray Television, a major TV station owner.

VUit has a station list of 260 TV stations -- with the recent addition of the CBS Television Stations group. Deals with TV stations put content on its platform through an advertising-revenue share basis.

Nearly all TV stations also have some sort of digital and/or streaming presence on the web -- directly from their owned sites.

All this continues to run nicely alongside cable, satellite, telco and video TV distributors airing live, linear TV networks that continue to pay TV stations billions of dollars in retransmission fees --  a sizeable revenue piece that can make up 50% to 65% or more of a TV station's overall revenue take.

It’s not just TV newscasts, of course, for pay TV providers. They run an entire TV stations’ live, linear schedules -- for example, prime time programming, the NFL, and daytime syndicated shows, as well as full local, linear TV newscasts.

VUit says it has seen major revenue growth for its business.

With news content a major piece of a TV station's advertising revenue -- as well as a major reason for retransmission fees -- what will become of local TV news distribution, say, ten years from now -- when pay TV distribution may become weaker?

A new TV business disruption could plant deeper roots.

What is Next Generation TV?

 

Unleashing the Next Generation of Broadcast Innovation

Unleashing the Next Generation of Broadcast Innovation

What is Next Generation TV?

The next generation of broadcast television technology is right around the corner. NEXTGEN TV, also known as ATSC 3.0, offers 4K ultra high-definition video quality, theater-like sound, mobile reception and innovative new features to enhance and expand your broadcast viewing experience.

NEXTGEN TV lets local TV stations better personalize their broadcasts with information and interactive features so you can get the content and features most relevant to you. For broadcasters, this means a more compelling and interactive way to tell our stories, whether it is breaking news, live sports or your favorite drama or reality show.

This broadcast technology can also enable warnings about impending storms and alerting you to other emergencies, with targeted public announcements that are interactive and mobile.

NEXTGEN TV is based on Internet Protocol (IP), just like online video services, and uses web languages for interactivity, so you can expect more innovation and new services, bringing you the best combination of online and broadcast television.

When is it coming?

Getting here took some time. Before broadcasters could unleash NEXTGEN TV, they needed the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) - the agency that regulates the public airwaves - to approve the new standard.

In late 2017, the Commission voted to allow broadcasters to use the NEXTGEN TV standard on a voluntary basis and stations began the planning process to implement Next Gen broadcasts.

At that point, many experimental NEXTGEN TV stations began operating, and now, in 2020, broadcasters are deploying NEXTGEN TV in various markets, with further deployments rolling out in 2021 and beyond.

As broadcasters move to unleash the next generation of free broadcast television service, we need the FCC to continue to provide as much flexibility as possible, to allow stations to offer the very best services for our viewers.

Will I need to buy a new TV to take advantage of NEXTGEN TV?

Not necessarily. Just as devices like Chromecast, Roku and Apple TV have emerged to bring new digital features to existing television sets, gateways and adapters will likely be available to unleash NEXTGEN TV on your existing set. But many models of new televisions already have NEXTGEN TV built in with more expected soon. So, chances are your next TV purchase could include NEXTGEN TV capability.

And remember, broadcast TV is free over-the-air, so there are no monthly fees required to access Next Gen's higher quality and basic new features, with an Internet connection providing even more service enhancements.

Prepared by Philip Jay LeNoble, M.B.A. Ph.D.

drphilipjay@gmail.com

What is Next Generation TV?

The next generation of broadcast television technology is right around the corner. NEXTGEN TV, also known as ATSC 3.0, offers 4K ultra high-definition video quality, theater-like sound, mobile reception and innovative new features to enhance and expand your broadcast viewing experience.

NEXTGEN TV lets local TV stations better personalize their broadcasts with information and interactive features so you can get the content and features most relevant to you. For broadcasters, this means a more compelling and interactive way to tell our stories, whether it is breaking news, live sports or your favorite drama or reality show.

This broadcast technology can also enable warnings about impending storms and alerting you to other emergencies, with targeted public announcements that are interactive and mobile.

NEXTGEN TV is based on Internet Protocol (IP), just like online video services, and uses web languages for interactivity, so you can expect more innovation and new services, bringing you the best combination of online and broadcast television.

When is it coming?

Getting here took some time. Before broadcasters could unleash NEXTGEN TV, they needed the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) - the agency that regulates the public airwaves - to approve the new standard.

In late 2017, the Commission voted to allow broadcasters to use the NEXTGEN TV standard on a voluntary basis and stations began the planning process to implement Next Gen broadcasts.

At that point, many experimental NEXTGEN TV stations began operating, and now, in 2020, broadcasters are deploying NEXTGEN TV in various markets, with further deployments rolling out in 2021 and beyond.

As broadcasters move to unleash the next generation of free broadcast television service, we need the FCC to continue to provide as much flexibility as possible, to allow stations to offer the very best services for our viewers.

Will I need to buy a new TV to take advantage of NEXTGEN TV?

Not necessarily. Just as devices like Chromecast, Roku and Apple TV have emerged to bring new digital features to existing television sets, gateways and adapters will likely be available to unleash NEXTGEN TV on your existing set. But many models of new televisions already have NEXTGEN TV built in with more expected soon. So, chances are your next TV purchase could include NEXTGEN TV capability.

And remember, broadcast TV is free over-the-air, so there are no monthly fees required to access Next Gen's higher quality and basic new features, with an Internet connection providing even more service enhancements.

Prepared by Philip Jay LeNoble, M.B.A. Ph.D.

drphilipjay@gmail.com

4 CTV Advertising Sure Bets for 2023

 MediaPost

SPONSOR CONTENT FROM PREMION

4 CTV Advertising Sure Bets for 2023

Author:  John Vilade, Head of Sales, Premion

Amidst signals of a recession and a general pullback of advertising spending, the state of Connected TV (CTV) advertising is healthy, resilient and the growth accelerator of media right now. While advertisers are bracing for an unpredictable 2023, they’re focused on making their ad dollars work smarter and harder and prioritizing the CTV channel, which will further propel the ad-supported streaming boom and usher in a period of even greater comfort and reliance for marketers with CTV. 

In fact, while consensus growth indicators have the ad market at only +5% annual growth rate, CTV ad spending is projected to grow nearly 3 times that rate at 14.4% in 2023, according to a new IAB 2023 Outlook Survey. Moreover, across all advertising channels, digital video, inclusive of CTV, is poised to capture the biggest share of total spend in 2023. The IAB’s forecast also finds that acquiring new customers (61%), brand equity (43%) and improving media efficiency (35%) are top goals for media investment in 2023 — all attributes that make CTV extremely compelling.

In the year ahead, marketers will be under increased budget scrutiny and thus will put a greater emphasis on performance-based media plans and measurability — with a large plurality of advertisers already embracing the data-driven capabilities of CTV for both brand awareness and trackable, outcome-based marketing goals. Dollars simply must work harder.

Here are my four predictions for CTV advertising growth and usage in 2023:

Heightened Brand Safety Focus to Drive More Ad Dollars to CTV:  The recent brand safety concerns on Twitter will continue to give advertisers pause on investing more on social media platforms — and we can expect more media investment to flow to CTV.  That said, not all CTV content is equal. To protect brand reputation and ensure that ads are running in brand-safe, fraud-free content, advertisers should look for the TAG Brand Safety and Certified Against Fraud Seals of approval to ensure they’re working with a providers that operate to a set of rigorous guiding brand safety and invalid traffic (IVT) fighting principles. This is the best safeguard for transparent accountability and brand safety protection.

Accelerated Usage of CTV Brand Lift Studies: Beyond looking at reach and frequency as primary success metrics, advertisers are tying CTV viewership to direct business results — by matching exposure to CTV ads with sales generated by a streaming TV campaign. Additionally, marketers can go deeper to understand the true impact of their CTV campaigns on viewer perceptions with brand lift studies, such as which messaging is resonating best with which audience. 

We expect more marketers to conduct CTV brand lift studies as many are already seeing positive results with ad recall, favorability, brand awareness and purchase intent. For example, advertisers can gain insights on whether their messaging is working, and they can learn about their audiences and how they perceive their brand so they can optimize their targeting or creative. For instance, a brand can learn which ad creative is driving the most impact, or they may uncover that their campaign is resonating more with Gen Zs than Millennials, or within a specific geography. Brand lift metrics aren’t used enough in CTV, but are about to get more deserved limelight in 2023.

Mainstreaming of Persona-based CTV Targeting:Advertisers are already tapping into a broader array of CTV targeting capabilities beyond just location, interests and behaviors. They’re tailoring targeting strategies aligned to precise brand goals — from driving brand awareness with demographic or contextual targeting to reaching in-market shoppers with intender targeting. 

In 2023, look for more advertisers to adopt more sophisticated persona-based targeting approaches to reach consumers whose lifestyles align well with their brands or services. For instance, advertisers can work with some CTV providers that use an audience-first targeting approach that leverages audience personas, based not only on direct interests but also adjacent interests and behaviors, such as budget-conscious shoppers, young professionals or outdoor adventurers. This gives advertisers additional relevant layers of targeting to capture potential customers missed by a narrower targeting approach.

More Ad Localization and Personalization: In the midst of a highly saturated and bifurcated “national” marketplace, local relevance will remain a top advertiser priority — and advertisers are demanding more localization to tailor their creative to different audiences in different markets in their CTV campaigns. Beyond this, the use of new dynamic creative capabilities is creating more personalization and relevancy for CTV ads.

By using dynamic creative, CTV ads can be transformed to deliver messaging unique to each individual household with localized and interactive enhancements. For instance, a hotel brand can embed a scannable QR code into a CTV ad that enables a viewer to browse their different properties, make a reservation and find directions to the nearest location. Aside from making ads more personalized, this adds more ad relevance to drive advertiser KPIs with specific localized and personalized call to actions. Window shopping with an “open door to the store” has arrived in the living room through the CTV experience, and it’s not going away. Bet on 2023 to catapult this development to an entirely new level.

Advertisers are clearly betting on the streaming future. In just a few short years, CTV has emerged as a priority and invaluable channel for advertisers to achieve their brand goals —  whether it’s brand building or reaching precise audiences with outcomes-based performance. Partnering with brand-safe, premium providers that can deliver powerful data-rich digital targeting, proven measurability and personalization are sure bets for CTV advertisers in 2023.

 

Where Marketers Plan to Spend Budgets Across Advertising, Marketing In 2023

• by Laurie Sullivan  @lauriesullivan, Yesterday

More marketers participating in a recent survey from NP Digital plan to increase rather than decrease advertising and marketing budgets in 2023. The study includes business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B).

Twenty-six percent of B2C marketers plan to increase budgets, the study found, while 51% plan to maintain their budgets and 23% plan to decrease their spend. Some 34% of B2B marketers said they would increase spend, while 45% plan to maintain budget and 21% plan to decrease spend.

About 8,032 marketers reading the NP Digital blog responded to a survey fielded by the company.

Where will they spend budgets in 2023? Marketers working with Google and Bing will increase paid-search ad budgets — at 59% and 47%, respectively — mainly because paid search provides a clear ROI compared to other marketing channels.

They also will maintain budgets — 18% for Google and 19% for Bing. The main reason is that marketers have not determined how to scale campaigns while maintaining profit margins.

Some marketers also said they will decrease budgets — 23% for Google and 34% for Bing. The main reason is that the average cost per click (CPC) for their respective industry continues to decline in cost, and fewer people are searching for the keywords they bid on, so their overall spend falls.

The data also shows that 68% plan to increase planned media budgets for search engine optimization in 2023, while 11% will maintain budgets and 21% plan to decrease budgets.

When it comes to social media, 32% of companies plan to increase their organic budget. The primary reason is focused on Apple iOS’s change in privacy restrictions, and that they are not able to spend as much as they want on paid social media.

While 26% plan to maintain paid social-media budgets because they are viewed as a tool to communicate with consumers, 42% said they would decrease the budget due to a decline in organic reach and a decline in ROI.

What will marketers do with content budgets?

• 83% will increase content-production budgets because costs associated with the media and the need to create content in multiple formats such as video.
• 8% said they would maintain the budget
• 9% will decrease budgets because artificial intelligence (AI) tools help create content more affordably

Nearly all marketers participating in the survey, at 98%, said they would invest in AI tools in 2023. The main reasons are saving money by automating content creation, reducing the amount of time spent on creating content, and ability to reduce the number of employees in the content department.

Neil Patel, NP Digital founder, highlights data around Twitter as being the most interesting information collected from the study. “I didn’t expect these results,” he wrote in a blog post.

Some 28% of companies plan to increase their Twitter ad spend. Marketers cite the top reason as an opportunity to acquire customers for less on the platform due to companies pulling out after Elon Musk bought the company.

Many of the 34% who plan to decrease ad spend on Twitter plan to do so because they do not agree with how Musk is running the platform and the changes being made.

When it comes to email marketing, 56% of companies said they would increase budgets. Some reasons include:

• Because their list size is growing so their costs for housing email addresses are rising
• Due to privacy laws, companies are spending more to ensure compliancy with personal data
• Companies are investing more in marketing automation

The data shows that very few companies plan to reduce headcount related to email marketing. Here is what they plan to do with budgets:

• 56% plan to increase budget
• 38% plan to maintain budget
• 6% plan to decrease budget

Other channels include:

• Podcast -- 78% plan to increase, 18% plan to maintain, and 4% will decrease spend
• Banner -- 34% plan to increase, 52% plan to maintain, and 14% plan to decrease ad spend
• Remarketing -- 94% plan to increase, 5% plan to maintain, and 1% plan to decrease ad spend
• Over-the-top and connected television -- 52% plan to increase, 35% plan to maintain, and 13% plan to decrease ad spend
• Influencer marketing -- 41% plan to increase, 17% plan to maintain, and 42% plan to decrease spend

 

Federal Lawmakers Seek TikTok Ban

• by Wendy Davis  @wendyndavis, Yesterday

Citing privacy and security concerns, federal lawmakers on Tuesday introduced a bill to ban social app TikTok.

The “Averting the National Threat of Internet Surveillance, Oppressive Censorship and Influence, and Algorithmic Learning by the Chinese Communist Party Act,” also called the “ANTI-SOCIAL CCP Act” -- introduced by Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) and Representatives Mike Gallagher (R-Wisconsin) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Illinois) -- aims to block transactions in the U.S. by social-media apps under the control of China, Russia and several other countries.

“This isn’t about creative videos -- this is about an app that is collecting data on tens of millions of American children and adults every day,” Rubio stated Tuesday. “We know it’s used to manipulate feeds and influence elections.”

The proposed law comes as TikTok faces increasing scrutiny over its data practices, including reports that the company has shared data about U.S. users with China.

Rubio and Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) recently urged the Federal Trade Commission to investigate TikTok over reports that employees in China accessed data about U.S. users of the service, and several state governors have banned use of the app on government-owned devices.

Federal Communications Commissioner Brendan Carr, a vocal critic of TikTok, has argued that it should not be allowed to operate in the U.S.

On Tuesday, Carr praised the new bill. “There is now widespread consensus in the U.S. that TikTok presents an unacceptable risk both to our national security and to the safety and privacy of millions of Americans,” he stated.

But digital rights advocates say a prohibition on TikTok could violate the First Amendment.

“There are people who are using TikTok every day, in order to express themselves to an existing community -- an audience that is interested in receiving that message,” Electronic Frontier Foundation deputy executive director Kurt Opsahl tells MediaPost. “A total ban would cut those people off from that means of communications.”

Opsahl adds that although TikTok presents “genuine security concerns,” there are ways to mitigate those concerns short of an outright ban.

“When you're looking at First Amendment concerns, you go through a balancing test, and a total ban is not going to be the least restrictive means of achieving even an important government purpose of protecting privacy and security for users,” he says.

Former President Donald Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to issue executive orders that would have blocked TikTok, but was rebuffed in court in two separate lawsuits -- one brought by TikTok, and another brought by users of the app. 

In those cases, federal judges ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act limits the president's ability to block “informational material” -- including photos and news feeds -- or “personal communications.” The bill proposed on Tuesday specifies that those limits wouldn't apply to a TikTok ban. 

Last year, the Biden ordered the Commerce Department to study the threats posed by some foreign countries' data collection, and to issue recommendations to protect U.S. residents from the potential harm posed by the transfer of their sensitive data -- including personally identifiable information, health and genetic information -- to foreign adversaries.

A TikTok spokesperson stated Tuesday, “It is troubling that rather than encouraging the Administration to conclude its national security review of TikTok, some members of Congress have decided to push for a politically-motivated ban that will do nothing to advance the national security of the United States.”

The spokesperson added, “We will continue to brief members of Congress on the plans that have been developed under the oversight of our country's top national security agencies -- plans that we are well underway in implementing -- to further secure our platform in the United States."

The industry-funded policy organization Chamber of Progress hasn't taken a position on the new bill, but on Tuesday called for the app to be sold to a U.S. owner.

“There’s a problem with TikTok that lawmakers can’t ignore: the Chinese government has the final say over what content U.S. users see and how their data is used,” Chamber of Progress CEO Adam Kovacevich stated. “That poses a real national security threat, especially knowing the Chinese government’s history of sharing propaganda and invading the privacy of their own citizens.”

 

As Inflation Eases, Retailers Expect Record 'Super Saturday'

• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, Yesterday

Retailers can expect record crowds this coming "Super Saturday," with the National Retail Federation predicting 158 million people will shop.

That’s a gain of about 10 million compared to last year and another indication that, whatever their concerns are about the economy, Americans are determined to celebrate the holidays more thoroughly than they have in the previous few years.

Super Saturday, because it is the last full Saturday before the Christmas holiday, sometimes eclipses Black Friday in total sales. (Saturday, Dec. 24, doesn’t count.)

The forecast comes just as the latest economic numbers land, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that inflation slowed last month, rising just 0.1%. That’s the smallest increase since last December. 

The NRF’s study with Prosper Insights & Analytics reports that the Super Saturday prediction is the highest since it began tracking shopping intentions in 2016.

Roughly 28% of those who are still shopping are planning to only buy in stores, 27% only online and 46% plan to shop both ways.

“Consumers have been shopping in record numbers this year,” says Matthew Shay, president and chief executive of the NRF, in its announcement. “With Super Saturday falling eight days before Christmas, retailers are prepared to help shoppers fulfill their last-minute purchases.”

It says the most-purchased categories include clothing, (50%), toys (34%) and gift cards (28%).

Previous surveys had predicted that gift cards would be the most popular purchase.

About 26% say they’ve also purchased books and other media, while 23% have spent money on food or candy.

Another shift is that 28% of respondents plan to give a gift of experience, whether it’s a spa service, a gym membership or event tickets, up from 23% last year. That’s the highest level since the NRF began tracking it in 2013.

About 70% of the survey, based on 7,800 respondents, say they’ll keep shopping after the holiday, roughly the same as pre-pandemic surveys.

The Consumer Price Index report means that for the last 12 months, the all-items index increased by 7.1%. Housing was the major contributor to the gain, offsetting the 1.6% decline in energy indexes. The food index climbed by 0.5%, as did the food-at-home measure.

Prices for used cars and trucks, medical care and airfares all fell.

 

COMMENTARY

Spotlight On Local TV News: Viewers Shifting to Streaming from Pay TV?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 3 hours ago

TV stations' local newscasts are still key for drawing in local market TV viewers -- and with that, local TV station advertisers.

But what if we did not need TV stations as much in the future? Would viewers gravitate more toward streaming and digital outlets?

Couple this with cord-cutting and perhaps one day, traditional or virtual pay TV providers might not have the wherewithal to continue to pay TV stations high retransmission/distribution fees.

VUit (pronounced “view it”), which started up in 2020, believes this is a business of major growth. It is a free, ad-supported, local TV web-based streaming service offering local TV content -- primarily news content but also weather, and sports -- all with in-market, localized advertising.

It comes from Syncbak, a media-technology company focused on streaming used by broadcast stations with the backing of investors like Gray Television, a major TV station owner.

VUit has a station list of 260 TV stations -- with the recent addition of the CBS Television Stations group. Deals with TV stations put content on its platform through an advertising-revenue share basis.

Nearly all TV stations also have some sort of digital and/or streaming presence on the web -- directly from their owned sites.

All this continues to run nicely alongside cable, satellite, telco and video TV distributors airing live, linear TV networks that continue to pay TV stations billions of dollars in retransmission fees --  a sizeable revenue piece that can make up 50% to 65% or more of a TV station's overall revenue take.

It’s not just TV newscasts, of course, for pay TV providers. They run an entire TV stations’ live, linear schedules -- for example, prime time programming, the NFL, and daytime syndicated shows, as well as full local, linear TV newscasts.

VUit says it has seen major revenue growth for its business.

With news content a major piece of a TV station's advertising revenue -- as well as a major reason for retransmission fees -- what will become of local TV news distribution, say, ten years from now -- when pay TV distribution may become weaker?

A new TV business disruption could plant deeper roots.

 Here's something to share with your automotive clients...from new to previously owned vehicles.           Philip Jay LeNoble, PhD

AUTOMOTIVE

Gen Z Regards Vehicle As 'Third Space'

• by Tanya Gazdik , December 7, 2022

A majority of Gen Z (75%) view their vehicle as a “third space,” according to a report from DTS, Inc., a subsidiary of Xperi.

“The Vehicle as a Third Space” discusses the increasing importance of the vehicle as a third space, as well as uncovers drivers' preferred in-cabin features and functionality.

A third space is defined as a place outside of home (first space) and work (second space), where consumers go to relax, enjoy hobbies and escape the stresses of work -- like a coffee shop, library, park or vehicle.

Based on results from a national consumer Caravan survey conducted by Big Village, the report finds that 75% of Gen Z drivers (ages 18 to 25 years), and 49% of drivers overall, are more likely to view their vehicle as a third space today, compared to pre-COVID.

“Automotive has conquered the vehicle exterior, but the next evolution is all about solving the vehicle interior, especially its role as a third space,” Jeff Jury, Xperi senior vice president and general manager, connected car, says in a release. “This demands technology that can merge safety with a vehicle cockpit that meets their entertainment, comfort, personalization and wellness needs. It is the future of the connected car industry.”

Using their vehicle as a third space is the top reason drivers say their personal vehicle is more important today (52%), followed by discomfort with public transportation or ridesharing (48%), and the vehicle’s ability to offer a place of refuge (41%) during these challenging times.

Drivers want increased safety and peace of mind (82%) design choices in their vehicle, followed by comfort (80%), and audio/radio entertainment (79%). Convenience, personalization and health features also rank highly.

A majority (69%) say advanced personalization (vehicle “knows” you and your occupants, and can adjust/personalize music choices, lighting, temperature, etc.) is important in enhancing the third space experience. One in four would like a radio in-dash experience that is more robust, immersive, visual and informative.

Almost all (91%) of Gen Z and Millennial drivers are interested in responsive mood-sensing technologies such as a sound bath or music activated by sensed state of mind, while 67% of respondents are interested in vehicle sensors that can assess health and illness — from heart rate to respiratory rate to facial changes.

And film/TV streaming, lighting, aromatherapy, and interactive video games are a top three feature of interest for at least one in four respondents.

Among those who do not think of their vehicle as a third space, nearly one in three would if it was completely self-driving.

The Caravan survey was conducted online in third quarter 2022 by Big Village and included 844 U.S. adults who currently own or lease a vehicle. 

 

COMMENTARY

TV Legacy That Remains: What Gets Cut Next and What Stays on TV Networks?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, December 6, 2022

Legacy national TV networks' distribution systems continue to see lots of cord-cutting. Who's next?

To give you an indication of how traditional pay TV business has declined in the recent third-quarter period, legacy pay TV services -- including new virtual pay TV services -- are now in just 61% of U.S. households, according to MoffettNathanson Research. 

That level has not been seen since 1993. 

Imagine if this dropped to a 40% level -- as last seen in 1987. That was a period of extreme U.S. financial instability, where the stock market had a major crash with the Dow Industrials falling 22% in one bleak October day.

Programmatic trading gone wrong was a major reason. Still, in the U.S., The Federal Reserve immediately cut interest rates.

Cable TV distribution was still in its ascendant stage. Satellite TV distribution arrived in 1994. All that meant much TV viewing was still via over-the-air TV antennas.

The big issue then was young TV consumers gravitating to a new technology: cable TV. 

Now young media consumers are searching for and finding a new way to get their entertainment. And it is not just the wide-reaching premium video streaming platforms. 

Much of this can be around social media and other digital platforms, including gaming -- a diversity of new competing media technologies. 

And that is where the likes of all-important live sports and news is headed, both major existing content drivers on broadcast and cable. 

Increasingly, it has found a home on streaming services -- NFL games on Peacock, Paramount+, Amazon; Major League Baseball on Apple TV+. For live news, we have NBC News Now, Fox Nation, ABC News Live, and CBS News Live.

Can sports and news continue to find ways to survive on legacy TV live, linear TV systems? That seems impossible now. So what remains?

Look backwards a bit for answers. When cable was growing, it started to program off-network sitcoms and dramas -- as well as growing sports and news. Analysts wondered about the survival of sports and news content on broadcast, but it is still around -- especially for sports. 

On cable networks, there is a great deal of non-scripted entertainment that supports many channels, as well as scripted entertainment shows.

If networks can hold onto some legacy live TV content this time around -- again, sports and news being a major factor -- then they have a chance to keep all this moving. No doubt to a smaller degree.

Young kids may, however, have other ideas. And the marketplace will move with them. But what if they eventually turn their back on premium streaming video as well?

 

GE Buys Out Entire Edition Of 'The New York Times'

• by Ray Schultz , Yesterday

The New York Times scored a coup on Tuesday both online and in its legacy medium, print.  

General Electric took over all of the paper’s pages, running 22 full-page color ads and five partial pages in a seven-figure campaign that also includes ads on desktop and mobile homepages, on three section webpages, in audio form on the podcast "The Daily" and in two newsletters briefings.  

It's the first time ever that all of the paper’s real estate has been taken over by a single advertiser. 

The package was designed to promote GE’s coming split into three separate companies: GE HealthCare, GE Aerospace, and GE Vernova, all publicly traded, the Boston Globe reports. 

When Times subscribers click on the home page, they receive a banner ad, stating “A new beginning is on the horizon at GE.” Readers can link through to four additional ads, each explaining one of the breakout companies. And they are invited to “Pick up a paper copy to see how focus can change your world, too.”  

According to Axios, which broke the story, the special paper will be delivered to the Times' 330,000 daily subscribers, and 5,000 copies will be placed at Grand Central Station, Penn Station, the New York Stock Exchange and other locations.  

The effort had to be carefully calibrated.  

"This isn’t an off-the-shelf product," Seb Tomich, head of advertising at The Times, told Axios ."It takes a lot of work to clear out the entire paper for one brand."

Addition: Giant Spoon, GE's media agency of record, worked with with T Brand Studio, The New York Times’ advertising creative arm, according to Axios. 

 

A mos def reason to make local-direct a prime target for 2023! Philip Jay LeNoble, Ph.D.

Q4 Scatter Pacing Down 39%

• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

The scatter television advertising market -- the near-term buying of TV media -- is revealing a dramatic national linear TV ad market slowdown in the fourth quarter so far, according to Standard Media Index.

Through October, scatter advertising has dropped 39% versus the same period a year ago. It is also down 56% from 2020.

Overall, including upfront TV buying made this past summer, SMI says there is a 8% drop in national TV advertising to around $4.5 billion compared to a year ago so far. Broadcast TV is down 4%, while cable has declined 12%, and syndication is down 19%.

Economic uncertainty in the U.S. and concerns over a possible recession have caused brand marketers to pull back spending, according to analysts.

Scatter advertising typically totals around 25% to 30% of the $40 billion national TV marketplace.

Upfront TV advertising spending bought this past summer and placed in the fourth quarter, however, has been virtually flat so far -- slipping 0.3%. Direct response advertising is down 15%.

The difference between upfront and scatter market TV placed media in the period is “unprecedented”, says SMI.

Brand advertisers with declines in October include consumer packaged goods, down 4% year-over-year; financial services (off 20%); technology (30%); and entertainment/media (10%).

SMI says the declines in technology and financial services have amounted to around $100 million in media spend each.

Categories that have seen increases in TV spend include: Pharmaceutical (9% higher); general business (11%); and travel (33%).

The slowdown in national linear TV is also 5% below the same period in 2020, the initial pre-pandemic year.

Standard Media Index captures actual invoicing data from all major holding companies and most major independents, representing 95% of national brand ad spend.

 

Commentary from MediaVillage

Don't Cut Advertising, Transform It! Bill Harvey Publish date December 07, 2022 (ET) Channel In Terms of ROI Cataclysmic changes to our way of life pelt us with new surprises daily. In this atmosphere it's understandable that marketers may feel that pulling back is the right thing to do. In the animal kingdom from which we sprang, when the turtle feels imminent attack is upon him, he pulls his head in. This could be related. Standard Media Index reports that in Q3 2022 the U.S. TV industry received $8.2 billion in advertising revenues. That's the lowest quarterly total since SMI became fully rolled out in the U.S. in 2017 -- and lower than it was in the first COVID quarters. To continue reading scroll down or view this article on MediaVillage.com Read Q3 of 2019 was $9.5 billion, the lowest pre-pandemic quarter since 2017. That's now down about -14%. At a global level, WARC projects that in 2023, ad spend will decrease in publishing (including digital versions), television (except OTT/AVOD), radio (except online), and digital's growth rate will be chopped in about half. The Standard Media Index data show that both major forms of digital video are growing at about equal rates and the two types -- longform which is the television streaming networks and apps, and shortform which is YouTube and the like -- are about equal size. However, BHC Fox results show that ROAS is more than double for longform (which most people call "premium"). The industry is generally cutting the most premium environments in favor of the lowest CPM environments, thus mostly ignoring the ROAS results in favor of the more front-of-mind CPMs (as always). This is the way people like to fool themselves into oversimplifying media optimization. Ignoring the Return On Ad Spend, which is higher in television and magazines than in nonpremium digital video and far higher than in digital display. Pennywise and pound foolish. Studies by CBS, Nielsen NCS, Innovid, TRA and others have consistently shown that it's very hard to get more than a 10%-13% reach with a digital campaign no matter how much money you spend on it. Courtesy of the Advertising Research Foundation (ARF), here's a graph presented by Dave Poltrack (CBS) and Leslie Wood (NCS) at the 2016 ARF AUDIENCExSCIENCE conference: Here's a link to even more extensive coverage of digital reach challenges by Dave and Leslie as presented in 2017 with Advertising Age media reporter Jeanine Poggi. Cutting television and radio, which are the reach media, is going to pile up all your impressions against a small chunk of your customers and prospective customers. This will then show up as reductions in brand growth and even shrinkage in sales. This graph shows what it looks like when a brand gets hooked on the idea of shifting more and more and more into low-CPM digital and out of TV and streaming. On the left are the chains that moved money out of TV into digital the most, on the right are chains that did the least of this. Over the 3.5-year period studied, brands on the left generally lost sales and never grew more than 2%, brands on the right generally grew sales by as much as 7% when digital dollars were moved back into TV. The green bars are the sales increases. We could go on at great length but let's assume our point has been made about not cutting out premium media based on naïve assumptions. What did we mean in the title about "transforming" advertising? In a world of commoditization, meaningful connections matter more than ever. Studies show that ads that compellingly dramatize the benefit of a truly superior brand are the most effective of all. However, not every brand is superior. Many top-quality brands are of equal quality. If you can't compellingly demonstrate superiority to a thoroughly cynical audience, what tactics can you use in ads that will tilt the needle on brand growth? You can dramatize what you stand for, what values you hold dear which can never be commoditized. You can show the people who stand behind the brand are good people. You can replace normal ads with brand content that has no hidden agenda to promote the brand, but which makes a statement about the good things in people, whether they be heroes or heroines or people who do the right thing. True stories about people, known or unknown, who are inspiring role models for the rest of us in one way or another. Find the good in the human race and put that message where it has the broadest reach …TV ad pods. Brought to you by the brand whose logo could appear at lower right throughout the ad. This is not mere signage. This is profound bonding, establishing trust, authenticity, genuine caring. We espouse the power of brands and their role in culture. This means brands have the power to serve as beacons of trust and optimism. Messages that uplift and encourage. When this has been done in digital its ROI and brand persuasion results are more than 7X those of average 30 second TV spots. It will have even more impact and reach in television. Today while most people are living in deep concern about their lives and the future, be part of their solution. Shore up the people's confidence in themselves and their ability to be resilient and face the challenges. This is an opportunity of a lifetime for wise marketers. It may never come again. Let's hope it doesn't. You can be part of making the future a better one. Do it now.