Whaile frequency of an ad does get its place in top-of-mind awareness importance, when does an ad become annoying and becomes painful while reducing its effectiveness? Philip Jay LeNoble, PhD.

COMMENTARY

Will Netflix Learn Erwin Ephron's Lesson?

• by Maarten Albarda , Featured Contributor, October 14, 2022

When the Albarda household cut the cable cord, we did so being equal part excited and worried. But when we found the combination of good old “over-the-air” TV via antenna (now delivered in HD), coupled with our platforms of choice, we never looked back.

Spectrum has not given up the fight, and is bombarding my inbox and mailbox with about one “exclusive for you” offer per week. But we ain’t going back, so save yourself the trouble already, Spectrum marketing team (you have tried for a year!).

And now there's an offer for an affordable version of Netflix. The ad-supported version is priced very competitively in comparison to the likes of Hulu and Paramount+ (all ad-supported as well).

But there is one thing I would like to ask of Netflix before I commit to adding it into our TV menagerie. And I was, in part, reminded to do so because of the Spectrum beggathon to come back to cable.

I have written about this annoying element of the platform advertising universe before: ad repetition and frequency. General Motors’ Chevy brand is the biggest culprit in our area (southern North Carolina), followed closely by IHG Hotels. When we watch content via any of the ad-supported platforms, including those made available by our local news stations, almost every ad break is filled with these advertisers.

The other day we counted seven (!!!) repeats, back-to-back, of the same Chevy truck ad on local news. And chalked the same IHG ad in literally every break on Hulu.

The late, great Erwin Ephron taught us that recency, not frequency, matters -- and that, in general, reach should be preferred over frequency. It’s clear that these wise lessons have not reached the Chevy and IHG media teams. They are, in fact, accomplishing the exact opposite of what I presume was their advertising intent.

For Chevy, it’s clear they want to sell me on both the versatility of the Silverado truck, and the wide range of accessories available to personalize it. And IHG is selling me on its wide range of hotel brands under its umbrella, so that I can guest how I guest (I also don’t know what that means, but IHG’s new slogan is “Guest how you guest”).

And clearly the platforms do not care about ensuring ads remain effective, either. Or are they that using ad annoyance as a way to upsell consumers to the more expensive premium offerings without ads? That goes diametrically against ad effectiveness, so as an advertiser I would make every effort to not be used as such.

IHG and Chevy spend big money on producing big ads and then placing these ads on screens. There are hundreds of people involved in this food chain: agencies, brand managers, media managers, maybe an in-house programmatic team, insights analysts, account managers, and many more. None of these people have taken the initiative to test their media schedule against a simple metric, taught to us by Erwin Ephron: How much is too much?

So, Netflix: if the collective of agencies, advertisers and platforms can’t or won’t do it, will you? It sounds to me like a real differentiator. And you might win my loyalty by doing so.

 When I was having on the street developing long-term local direct business, I always knew that "new business" was paramount in my growth. I consistently found that would be great for not only me but for local businesses to build their brand within the community as an important step in helping them to become a major player in their marketplace as well a familiar solution to consumer needs.  Philip Jay LeNoble, PhD. 

COMMENTARY

New Biz Drives Ad Economy, Big Agencies Not So Much

• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, 8 hours ago

The term “new business” can mean different things on Madison Avenue, depending on who you talk to.

If it’s big agency rainmakers, this year isn’t turning out so great. If it’s one of the biggest agency cloud-watchers, it’s actually one of the most encouraging signs for the ad economy.

Of course, those two perspectives are looking at two different definitions of new business.

In the first case, consultant R3 released data late last week indicating that agency new business has receded dramatically for both media and creative services – in both the U.S. and worldwide – vs. the same period a year ago.

In the second case, it is the formation of new businesses worldwide -- but especially in the U.S. -- that is one of the most “under-appreciated” aspects of the economy that is sustaining ad spending growth, according to GroupM Global President of Business Intelligence Brian Wieser.

“We’ve hypothesized that one of the most important drivers of advertising through the pandemic was this mass expansion of new business formation in the early stages,” Wieser explained during this week’s edition of his team’s “This Week Next Week” podcast.

The episode, which included a guest appearance by the group’s U.K.-based business intelligence analyst Nidhi Shah, revealed stats showing that while new business formation has begun slowing down due to recent economic volatility, it’s nonetheless up vs. pre-pandemic levels, especially in the U.S.

“If I look at U.S., it’s up 45% for the nine months total this year relative to the nine months total in 2019,” Shah explained, adding: “That is remarkable.”

While data for the first half of this year is a little more “muted” for the European Union and the U.K., they are nonetheless up – 2% and 4%, respectively – vs. the first half of 2019.

Wieser noted that the fact that the U.S. has already reported third-quarter data for new business growth and that it’s still expanding despite weakening economic indicators is a particularly important sign.

That said, Wieser noted that new business formation doesn’t impact all parts of the ad economy equally.

Because new businesses tend to have smaller ad budgets that are invested almost entirely in the Big 3 digital platforms – Amazon, Facebook and Google – the growth is not likely to impact big agency holding companies for some time.

And while Wieser didn’t say this part out loud, I inferred that also means the share of U.S. and global ad spending coming from big agencies will continue to decline for the foreseeable future.

“It’s going to be a really important thing for us to keep close tabs on,” Wieser concluded.

 A Thought for local-direct advertisers to consider for their product offerings instead of just a sale. Philip Jay LeNoble PhD.

COMMENTARY

Creating Genuine Human Connections Is 'Unspoken' Secret to Marketing Success

• by Ashley Cooksley , October 13, 2022

The following was previously published in an earlier edition of Marketing Insider.

Too often, marketers undervalue the power of genuine connections, instead emphasizing straightforward ROI and stats they can cite. Sometimes brands forget that they’re dealing with—or rather, speaking to—real people living their everyday lives. People use social media for more than just keeping up with breaking news and product announcements. They also use it to watch the latest dance challenge or for recipes and travel tips.

People trust people, not corporate statements.

You could of course say, "Well, we're a brand, so we need to talk about our products and/or services." Yes, but I cannot emphasize this point enough: Your social media communications should not be about your products or services themselves, but rather about how they make people feel or how they have impacted users' lives.

Embrace your human side—talk, sound and behave like a real person. Only then can a brand hope to cultivate genuine brand love, which is of course the be-all, end-all.

Be a good listener: Scratch that. Be an active listener. Get to know your audience by listening to everything from their wants to their needs, as well as their interests, their likes and everything they don't like, too.

Listening is essential for effective social media engagement. Social isn’t a broadcast channel—it’s a way to facilitate conversations with the people you want to appeal to most.

Listening on social media takes dedication and expertise. For instance, if you want your brand to be part of conversations on TikTok, you will need a daily proactive listening plan in order to train the algorithm to start serving you relevant content. Also, you have to act fast on joining conversations—they won’t be there tomorrow!

Emotions, emotions, emotions! They’re what make us human, after all. Effective social media storytelling typically employs themes and emotions that have been popular for time immemorial because they resonate with the human experience and are universally appealing to audiences. Which is to say that our experiences and the emotions they evoke are feelings that others can understand and sympathize with, because they have had comparable experiences themselves.

Tap into cultural moments and have fun. Use cultural moments, first, to entertain and intrigue. But demonstrating your brand's personality while connecting with these moments is essential if you want your content to resonate with your audience(s). This is especially effective on TikTok, where you must spotlight the human side of your brand to be memorable. Trigger a response—excitement, joy, whatever it may be—and users will respond in kind via views and high levels of engagement.

Take the conversation offline. This last one may feel like a bit of a paradox, but in order to connect with your audiences on social media, you should also take steps to inspire offline conversations—the kind of conversations that spread via word of mouth. When something inspires us, we want to spread the word, and savvy brands will try to tap into that energy.

 

COMMENTARY

Netflix Brand with Advertising: To Be Tainted?

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, October 13, 2022

Netflix may be going in reverse -- from a “premium” network to something that may be less glitzy.

Advertising-free TV content has always meant “premium” TV programming to some. This could stem from what non-advertising premium cable TV networks have been for decades -- like HBO and Showtime.

Netflix is now moving its premium brand into the ad-supported world -- and that could mean trouble, says Jeffrey Wlodarczak, principal/senior analyst of Pivotal Research Group.  It could cheapen the brand.

Ramping up a new advertising-selling cable TV network is an understandable move -- to boost overall revenue growth to complement affiliate revenues.

What Netflix is doing goes in the opposite direction -- especially for a company that continues to lead all competitors in the streaming field.

In addition, it has partnered with Microsoft Corp. -- a technology company with an unproven reputation when it comes to video streaming, according to Wlodarczak.

We are reminded of similar cable TV networks in the past making similar transitions. Earlier on, the American Movie Classics started out in 1984 as an ad-free service, then slowly shifted to one selling advertising time.

Starting in 1998, it began selling limited advertising. Under the brand name AMC Network it grew to feature big critically acclaimed TV shows like “The Walking Dead” and its spinoffs; “Better Call Saul” and  “Breaking Bad”, and before that -- “Mad Men”.

Recently -- and somewhat more quietly -- HBO also made a shift under its streamer sister operation HBO Max, with an ad-supported option.

HBO had been the long-time purveyor of “premium” no-advertising content. The jury is still out on what -- if any -- effect TV commercials have had on HBO Max's content.

The bottom line is that consumers might view TV content in many different buckets these days -- especially when they have not only a wide range of streamers in considering purchase, but many viewing options under each streaming platform.

Someone please define the word "premium" for Netflix. While Netflix has some high-flying critically strong shows, not everything on the platform gets great critical acclaim. With regard to that, would you call that cheap?

Here’s another consideration -- at least how Netflix views its upcoming advertising option: Reports are saying Netflix is asking for a massive premium of $65 cost-per-thousand viewers (CPMs).

We'll see whether brands agree with that definition now.

 

COMMENTARY

Who Approves This Message? Political Ad Fact-Checking for The Average Voter Isn't Easy

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, October 14, 2022

Lying, misleading, and subtle threats on political TV commercials are not new. Even as new digital media attempts to eliminate much of this, expect more to come throughout these midterm elections on linear and connected TV platforms.

Also expect TV political ad revenues to hit new records -- with broadcast TV hitting $3.8 billion, cable TV $1.4 billion, and OTT $1.2 billion, according to Kantar.

Michelle Nelson, professor of advertising of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, notes something we have previously cautioned about in TV Watch: The process that voters must take to determine what information is correct involves a lot of work. “Most people probably do not have the time for this intensive search,” she says.

There are a wide range of issues surrounding problematic social-media platforms.

Social media platforms can only do so much -- short of not selling any political messaging. Or they can do the tougher task -- finding a way to totally eliminate all political messages in user postings. And then there are freedom of speech issues that come into play.

Nelson points to research that reveals more than half of American surveyed in a Pew Research Center poll believed social media platforms should not be allowed to run political ads.

While there are legal tools to fight defamation and libel issues, she reminds us that the legal process can take time long after any elections are completed.

A growing number of fact-checking news sites help voters to evaluate and understand the information they read. But again, who has the time?

When it comes to information-seeking on politicians, we are left with “brand awareness.” One can just know the names of key candidates to consider, and perhaps a few data points. But not much else.

A greater danger comes with non-candidate political advertising, political action committees (PACs) and the like. Major funded political groups will continue to hide, using vague names and words like “American,” “freedom,” “justice” and “social” in the titles of their organizations. 

Messages can also be vague, talking about elected officials looking to stop business innovation, or disrupting “your way of life.”

For their part, social-media platforms have been more circumspect about individual politicians and government officials like the former President, who was thrown off of Twitter and Facebook soon after the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

Nearer to an election, voters might consider being a journalist for one day -- in the context of honest and deep research.

Consider a political TV ad just as a starting-off point. So, when the next political TV commercial pops up, you can then just turn down the sound.

With that one flick of the remote, you can then whisper: “I approve this message.”

 

Survey: 49% Of Registered Voters Don't Have Traditional TV, 80% Stream

• by Karlene Lukovitz  @KLmarketdaily, 6 hours ago

About half (49%) of registered U.S. voters no longer have traditional linear TV subscriptions, while more than 80% of registered voters nationally and in key battleground states stream, according to a new survey from  Samba TV and HarrisX. 

In addition, on a national level, independents, the key swing voter block, are least likely to have traditional TV (42%). In key battleground states, just 39% report having it currently. 

Among those who said they definitely plan to vote in the U.S. midterm elections, 55% nationally and 56% of those in key battleground states report having traditional TV subscriptions, and 80% report that they stream. 

Nationally, millennial and Gen Z voters were found to be more than twice as likely to stream as to have traditional linear TV subscriptions, with a wider gap in battleground states. 

The research also found one in four respondents who still have traditional TV subscriptions saying that they plan to cancel them within the next six months. 

Samba TV, whose advertising division markets targeted omniscreen reach and insights from about 28 million smart TVs in the U.S. (46 million globally), is citing the results of the research as evidence that political campaigns  should shift their focus toward connected TV (CTV) in the remaining time before the midterm elections. 

“With so many elections now being determined by the slimmest of margins, campaigns need to dramatically rethink how they reach voters in the closing weeks to ensure they are not just saturating the same shrinking number of households with ads while leaving the vast majority of the electorate under-reached,” argues Samba TV co-founder and CEO Ashwin Navin. 

The survey, conducted online Aug. 29-Sept. 1 among a nationally representative sample of 2,300 U.S. adults identified by HarrisX as registered voters, has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, according to HarrisX. 

Battleground state Democrats are much more likely to stream video on their mobile phones (72% compared to 59% of Republicans). 

On the social media front, Facebook remains the most-used platform by registered voters nationally but has less of an impact in the key battleground states, according to the survey. 

Democratic voters are more likely to use TikTok: 37%, versus 27% of Republican voters. 

Among younger Gen Zs, YouTube and TikTok are the top two social media platforms used weekly. 

 

TV Advertising 'Memories' Metrics Better Than Digital Media: Comcast

• by Wayne Friedman , 3 hours ago

Using three kinds of biometric measures -- eye-tracking, "cardiac deceleration" and "sweat secretion" -- TV-centric Comcast Advertising says advertising in long-form TV programming on full-screen TV or streaming platforms yields better ad “memories” than with advertising placed on digital media platforms.

When it comes to "attention," the study says, for ads viewed in the TV environment participants watched 71% of the ad -- compared to just 30% of the digital mobile ads.

Looking at the effects of ads "repetition" results, Comcast says recall was 3.4 times better for TV versus digital mobile when it came to all ad brands, compared to 2.3 times for well-known advertising brands.

Creative recall also favored TV over digital.

When participants saw two ads in the TV environment -- versus one ad in the TV environment and one in the digital mobile environment -- TV scored better results when it came to "entertaining," "engaging," "high quality," "informational" and "liked the ad" measures.

Biometric measures here include: "Cardiac deceleration" -- a slowing of the heart rate is an indicator of cognitive function, linked to improve memory; "neurometric intensity", which comes from an emotional response by measuring sweat secretion, and "eye-tracking" technology measuring viewers' eyes tracking an ad on the screen.

The Comcast Advertising-MediaScience study of 188 participants showed viewers 30-second ads in "mobile-digital environment": YouTube (pre-roll ads before short-form videos) and Facebook (in-feed ads), and "TV environment," traditional TV and streaming.

The authors of the study say: "In the high-quality, long-form, full-screen TV environment, where visual attention and engagement are high, brands are more likely to be remembered.

 

Cable TV Network, Broadcast Reach Sinks to New Lows in Q3

• by Wayne Friedman , 3 hours ago

Broadcast and cable TV networks' viewer reach continues to plummet over the last five years, according to analysis of Nielsen data by MoffettNathanson.

Cable TV networks in particular have been hard hit. Sixteen top cable TV networks are down to an average 17.5% reach of viewers two years and up  in the third quarter of 2022.

In 2017, these networks averaged a 33% reach.

ESPN comes in at a high score of 24%, with USA, TBS, and TNT each at 20%. Syfy, CNN, and Food Network are at the low end, at 15%.

Although cable TV news channels have seen generally higher viewing vs. entertainment/reality TV channels, their reach has also declined -- with Fox News Channel at the low end of 15% (it was 24% in the third quarter 2017) and CNN at 15% (versus 29%).

Broadcast networks have also been hit with a lower reach of around 44% -- down from around 70% in 2017. ABC and Fox affiliates come in at 44%, with NBC at 47% and CBS at 43%.

At the same time, many channels have seen higher “length of tune” levels -- the average duration of time that a viewer tunes to a network.

ABC is now at 34 minutes (it was 32 minutes in 2017); Fox and NBC each at 32 minutes (both were 30 minutes before); and CBS at 30 minutes (26 minutes previously). MoffettNathanson says this means broadcast has a “smaller, more loyal base.”

Similarly many cable TV networks also have witnessed slightly higher “length of tune” among viewers.

USA Network is the highest among 16 networks, now at 33 minutes; Fox News Channel and HGTV are each at 31 minutes. At the low end regional sports networks, ESPN, and ESPN2 are at 19 minutes, 17 minutes and 13 minutes respectively.

 

AUTOMOTIVE

Automotive TV Spending Down 22% In September

• by Tanya Gazdik , October, 2022

Automakers spent an estimated 22% less in September on national TV compared to the same period a year ago, according to iSpot.tv. 

Total spending was $211.5 million, compared to $239.5 million in September 2021. 

TV ad impressions also slid, but not as much, down 10.6% year over year to 24 billion for September 2022 compared to 30.8 billion a year ago. 

The top five brands by spend for the month are Honda ($21.2 million), Chevrolet ($19.3 million), Hyundai ($18.5 million), Toyota ($17.7 million) and Nissan ($16.4 million).

The most-seen automaker ads for the month are Honda: Forever Determined (4.58%), Nissan: 60 Years In 30 Seconds (3.33%), Ram Trucks: Moments (2.70%), Lincoln: A Glimpse (2.49%) and GMC: Outside And In (2.15%).

Honda aired 22 times more national TV ads year-over-year in September, which is part of the larger spend number (both relative to its peers and its own estimated national TV ad spend a year ago).

Chevrolet, meanwhile, spent 10% less year-over-year, but made college football a larger part of its September ad buy, up from 0.55% to 2.84%. 

Hyundai was focused on NBC, which accounted for nearly 76% of its September spend due in very large part to the NFL (almost 85% of Hyundai’s NBC spend was allocated toward "Sunday Night Football" and "Football Night In America").

The top five brands by share of automaker TV ad impressions for the month were Hyundai (8.18%), Toyota (8.12%), Chevrolet (7.73%), Nissan (7.17%) and Honda (7.06%).

The biggest spend increases among top 15 brands by spend for September compared to a year ago were Honda (+153.8%), GMC (+108.3%), Acura (+69.1%), Subaru (+58.4%) and Mercedes-Benz (+41.6%).

Honda emphasized the NFL far less compared to last September – 39.9% of est. national TV ad spend in Sept. 2022 vs. 89.8% in Sept. 2021 – but the brand also spent on SportsCenter and various HGTV shows as well, which was not the case in Sept. 2021. 

GMC’s increase comes in large part due to the NFL, as it spent nearly three times more during games this September compared to a year-ago. 

Acura doubled its NFL spend year-over-year, but also focused on Bravo's "The Real Housewives of Atlanta" (No. 2 by spend for the brand after Acura did not buy national linear ads during the show last September).

The top programs for automakers by TV ad impressions share of voice for September 2022 are: NFL (11.92%), college football (11.12%), SportsCenter (1.13%), MLB (1.10%) and "Today" (0.96%).

Football’s return means automakers are relying on NFL and college games for reach once again. In September 2022, 23% of auto brand TV ad impressions are delivered by NFL and college football games, versus 17.8% in Sept. 2021. 

By emphasizing TV ad impressions during football games in September, automakers had a clear focus on the broadest reach for new messaging, said Stuart Schwartzapfel, senior vice president, media partnerships at iSpot. 

“Creatives around new 2023 vehicle inventory took center stage for many auto brands, while others leaned on broader brand messaging to attract potential customers on the promise of both present and future innovation,” Schwartzapfel tells Marketing Daily.

Share of TV ad impressions for reality programming also came in slightly higher year-over-year, at 12.10% (compared to 11.92% last year).

The top networks by share of automaker TV ad impressions in September 2022 are NBC (11.31%), FOX (6.90%), ESPN (6.25%), CBS (5.86%) and ABC (5.36%).

Sunday Night Football helps guide NBC to the top, accounting for over 47% of automaker TV ad impressions on the network (up from 38% the previous year). 

The NFL delivers nearly 41% of automaker TV ad impressions on FOX as well, while college football makes up 46.1% on ESPN. 

Tennis (and retiring superstar Serena Williams, in particular) is also a boost for ESPN, as the U.S. Open contributes 7.5% of automaker impressions on the network in September, compared to 3.1% last year.

 

COMMENTARY

Top Teen Brands: Converse, Ryan Reynolds, Hey Dude

• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer @mahoney_sarah, 5 hours ago

Teens’ favorite brands–always in flux–reflect shifts in disposable income, fashion trends and current events. While Nike remains tops in both footwear and apparel in Piper Sandler’s latest “Taking Stock With Teens” survey, Converse is surging, as is Hey Dude.

There’s also a reshuffling of Gen Z passion points, with the environment and abortion emerging as the two issues they care most about, followed by racial equality. Gun control climbs from No. 19 to No. 9.

Self-reported spending rose 3% to $2,331, compared to last year’s results, but declined 2% since the spring survey. And parents are kicking in a little more -- 61% compared to 60%.

Girls are driving the increase, spending  10% more on clothing than they did last year, and 7% more in footwear. Beauty is taking a larger share of their spending, at 28%, a 20% gain from last year.

More girls say they are wearing make-up every day, and about two-thirds use a fragrance product daily. E.L.F. continues to be the top make-up brand, with Bath & Body Works leading as the place to find fragrance. But skincare still gets the most purchase money, at $103, followed by cosmetics at $96 and haircare at $91.

Ulta remains teens’ favorite place to shop for beauty, followed by Sephora and Target.

In footwear -- one of the categories that matter most to kids in terms of style -- Nike reigns as the favorite. It commands 31% of all apparel purchases and 60% of footwear.

Converse, owned by Nike, remains in the No. 2 spot, but with significant increases in mindshare -- at the expense of Adidas and Vans. Crocs rose from No. 6 to No. 5. And Hey Dude jumps to No. 7 from No. 9.

Under Armour has fallen out of the Top 10.

In apparel, lululemon is No. 2, followed by American Eagle, H&M and Shein.

Ryan Reynolds is their favorite celebrity, followed by Adam Sandler, Taylor Swift, Kevin Hart and Zendaya.

The investment bank has been tracking teen brand favorites twice a year for 22 years. The survey looks at discretionary spending trends and brand preferences among 14,500 teens, with an average age of 15.8 years.

 

WFA: Nearly 30% Of Big Advertisers Will Cut Budgets Next Year

• by Steve McClellan  @mp_mcclellan, Today

With uncertainties growing about the future health of the economy, nearly 30% of the world’s biggest advertisers are planning to cut ad budgets in 2023, according to a new survey from the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) and Ebiquity.

About the same percentage said they planned to increase budgets while the rest of the respondents, around 40%, indicated that their budgets will remain flat next year versus 2022.

The study is based on a survey of 43 multinational companies. The sample included five of the world’s top 10 advertisers by spend, which collectively invest more than $44 billion in advertising.

Three-quarters of those polled said that budgets are under “heavy scrutiny,” with marketers required to justify investment.

The study found some differences by region. There is more evidence of a potential cut in spend in Europe Middle East and Africa compared with Asia Pacific. In EMEA, for example, a third of respondents agree there could be a significant (more than 10%) or slight decrease (0-10%) next year, compared to 30% who are planning a slight increase in spend. By contrast, in APAC just 15% envision a slight decrease while 35% plan a slight increase.

In North America a plurality of respondents—44%--indicated budgets would be flat at their companies next year. About a third envision an increase of up to 10% while 3% said their firms were planning increases greater than 10%.

About 21% of North American respondents said their companies would cut their ad budgets. Nine percent are bracing for cuts of more than 10% and 12% believe the cuts will be less than 10%.

There will also be a further shift away from traditional/offline media to digital per the study. 42% said their outlays for digital will increase, with offline media such as TV, radio, print, and outdoor likely to take a hit. Nearly half of respondents are planning to cut offline investment and a quarter are looking to make a significant cut (of more than 10%) in print spend.

Twenty-eight per cent of respondents say they will seek to boost performance, compared to 21% who are focused on increased brand spend in 2023.

Greater flexibility is also being sought meaning greater use of biddable/auction-based platforms. This approach also allows brands to hold back funds, should economic conditions dictate. Just 9% are planning to increase the proportion of budget allocated to upfront commitments, according to the survey.

The Earlier-Than-Ever Holiday Season: How brands can make sure they meet consumers’ gift-buying needs

 Should your local-direct client get in on holiday advertising earlier? Philip Jay LeNoble, PhD

MediaPost

SPONSOR CONTENT FROM TWITTER

The Earlier-Than-Ever Holiday Season: How brands can make sure they meet consumers’ gift-buying needs

As we move into October, two questions seem to be on everyone’s lips: “Didn’t the summer go by quickly?” and “Doesn’t it seem like holiday preparation starts earlier every year?”

The first is an annual lament, with no solution. The second is clearly accurate, especially this year. Consider the results of a survey of social media users conducted by Twitter this past May, which found that:

• Nearly one-third of people on Twitter said they expect to start thinking of holiday shopping ideas earlier this year than last.1
• While a quarter of people on Twitter said they expect to do their gift shopping earlier this year than last, 37% said they expect to have made most of their purchases before mid-November, while only 8% said they’ll still be shopping in mid- to late December.2

These trends have been borne out by Twitter’s own experience, which showed that holiday-related tweets in May and June of this year were 67% higher than during the same period in 2021.3 In addition, the surge of last-minute shopping-related tweets close to Christmas Eve that had been commonplace before 2020 had decreased by 22% by 2021.

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Holiday-related tweets in May and June of this year were 67% higher than during the same period in 2021.

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Why It’s Different This Year

While this may seem more like an evolution than a sea change in how shoppers—and brands—approach the holiday season, this year there are some key differences.

Chad Tully, industry director at Twitter, puts these trends into the context of how holiday-based Twitter conversations—and ads—have grown over the past decade, focused primarily on two aspects of the shopping experience: inspiration and deals. When it comes to inspiration, Twitter’s survey showed that at least a quarter of people on Twitter use the platform to find gift ideas, while 60% reported that Twitter is a critical influence in helping them decide what they’re buying for the holidays. The deals—which at least a third of people on Twitter expect to find via the platform—have always come to a peak during the two primary shopping days of the season: Black Friday and Cyber Monday.4

But this year, with inflation on consumers’ minds (and with conversations on Twitter about inflation increasing by 29% year over year this May and June5), early deals are clearly more important. Fearing further price increases, shoppers have started purchasing gifts sooner, before inflation can get the better of their budgets. That rush to purchase has been exacerbated by supply chain issues, which have put on-time gift delivery in jeopardy. “Countless brands have been challenged in that space,” Tully notes, adding that some, such as Home Depot, have even bought their own ships in order to try to circumvent delivery issues. With these potential impediments, consumers can’t risk waiting until the last minute this year, lest their gifts be out of reach, in terms of both price and availability.

The Perfect Storm

The combination of these macroeconomic factors has created something of a perfect storm.

As a result, if by May, consumers were starting to think about holiday gifts and were already on the hunt for inspiration6, now that it’s October, the shopping has begun in earnest, with consumers looking to lock in prices and make sure they’ll have gifts in hand when the holidays arrive.

That means, the Twitter data suggests, that if savvy shoppers are ready to buy in October, savvy brands need to be sharing ideas, crafting offers, and placing ads by that point as well.7 As Tully explains it, “There’s an interesting convergence of what’s happening in the retail sector. Conversations around shopping and commerce on Twitter are starting earlier than ever, thus driving brands to begin advertising with us earlier than ever.”

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Twitter data suggests that if savvy shoppers are ready to buy in October, savvy brands need to be sharing ideas, crafting offers, and placing ads by that point as well.

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That doesn’t mean, of course, that Black Friday and Cyber Monday have lost their power. In fact, well over 80% of people on Twitter responding to the survey say they are likely to shop around these key shopping events, with at least a third of people on Twitter saying they’re likely to do their Black Friday shopping in-store.8 And they’ll be shopping for a wider range of categories than will people who are not on Twitter, with high percentages looking for deals on electronics, apparel, toys, gaming, and mobile technology.9

Be Really Clear

Seeing these trends, Twitter has responded, Tully says, by “encouraging brands to be really clear and direct about what action they want and expect from the consumer, whether that’s tweeting a specific branded hashtag, driving to a site to purchase a product, or participating in a limited-time-offer product drop.” Given, too, Twitter’s focus on message brevity, Tully says “we’re being really concentrated and focused with how we’re recommending creative messages come to life for the holiday season.”

To reinforce those messages and to help facilitate Twitter’s traditional role as a source of shopping inspiration, Tully notes that over the past 10 months, Twitter has been testing a variety of shopping products “to make it easier for consumers to fulfill an order or even just to discover new features and offerings.” These include a live shopping option that provides, as Tully describes it, “live streaming content within Twitter’s brand studio,” adjacent to a “companion experience where you can purchase a product from a retailer in real time.” Another feature, called product drops, is a “native experience in-feed where a brand can showcase a product drop, highlight the time when the drop will happen, and allow a user to sign up for a push notification reminder to purchase.”

One Season Rolls into the Next

Looking at the results of its survey and the converging trends fueling responses, Twitter has not only suggested that brands begin advertising in early October for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but that they start highlighting holiday gifting ideas as well as deals and promotions no later than the beginning of October.10 As Tully explains, “The elongated period is allowing brands to actually test out various creative messages earlier in October to determine what is resonating with our users on Twitter, and then focusing investment and attention on the creative that’s been working around Black Friday and Cyber Monday.” This provides, he says “a version of an A/B test,” allowing brands “to prepare themselves for the push to the last 25 days of the holiday shopping season.”

For Twitter, says Tully, the longer holiday season, along with the need for its advertisers to craft messages that address key macroeconomic trends, provide the platform with an opportunity to focus on “the three core principles that we always talk to brands about broadly: launching something new, connecting with cultural moments, and driving people to buy.” While the first two principles, he notes “are jobs we work with brands on throughout the year, there’s more of an emphasis on the third job as we move into the holiday season.” Especially, it seems, when that holiday season starts almost as soon as the previous one ends.

 

Commentary from MediaVillage

The Future Is Elastic! Rishad Tobaccowala Publish date October 11, 2022 (ET) Channel Restoring the Soul of Business "The Future is plastics" was uttered 55 years ago in 1967's groundbreaking movie The Graduate. The "plastics" industry then boomed for decades but "plastic" also meant fake, or artificial, unnatural. The statement "The future is plastics" was also code for all things that needed to be changed. Today the word would be "elastic." Here is a simple definition of that word: Elastic, resilient, springy, flexible, supple means able to endure strain without being permanently injured. Elastic implies the property of resisting deformation by stretching. The future is elastic. People are increasingly living elastically in the way they shop, consume media and work. They are stretching definitions and flexing and twisting. Those individuals most elastic in mindset who are ready to continuously iterate and adapt are more likely to thrive in transforming and changing times. The organizations that will thrive in the future will align with peoples' new expectations and behaviors by being elastic in their structure and approach. How people shop and consume media today are increasing elastic. The customer "journey" or "funnel" is no longer recognizable. Once upon an imaginary time there was a purchase funnel with awareness, consideration, intent and purchase as its four key movements and one could map a consumer journey. In a world of fragmentation, empowered customers with super computers in their pockets and media like TikTok which collapse above the line with below the line, fuse offline and online commerce and destroy any line between search, e-commerce, video, social and mobile, businesses are dealing with millions of journeys beginning, ending and lurching all over. The neat little boxes and orchestrated behavior have dissolved into a cacophony of improvised jazz as the Gartner chart above illustrates. Elastic companies will need to be not just omni-channel across all analog and digital platforms but also across multi-verses as the future of AR and VR begin to scale. (Source for chart below: World Economic Forum and Upwork.) How people will work increasingly elastically. Within five years projections suggest that most workers will have multiple employers. Today we are living in a world of distributed and unbundled work (a process that began before COVID-19 and was just accelerated) across office, home, third places and event. In a world where software, hardware and the Cloud allow many individuals to have access to the same technologies and platforms as large firms the nature of work is in flux. The future of employee will be a flexible combination of the full-time employee, the contract employee, the fractionalized employee and the freelance employee. In addition, in most countries with declining populations (pretty much everywhere outside of Africa and for a little while India) businesses will combine advanced technology and cast a wide net for employees who are increasingly diverse, older and distributed around a multitude of locations working for a varying number of hours. The work forces will span generations, cultures, working styles and mindsets like never before. A multi-verse of talent is what companies will need to be prepared for. Their big tent will need to be elastically stretchy offering a wide menu of ways to work. Success will require the need to stretch one's mind and skill sets. The rate of change today is speeding up and unless one is constantly learning, adapting and questioning the status quo we could find ourselves like the frog in the boiling water who did not pay attention to the rising temperature till it was too late to jump before being cooked! Every modern successful organization and leader is a target for dis-intermediation if we do not stretch ourselves. Satya Nadella re-invigorated Microsoft after a decade of slumber increasing its market capitalization fivefold in five years by stretching out to incorporate open source (GitHub), social media (LinkedIn), gaming (Minecraft and now Activision Blizzard), expanding into Cloud (Azure) while torching stack ranking (which pitted employees against each other, which made no sense when connection and collaboration are key), dropped the Windows Operating Division (legacy roots that were poisoning the ability to see in new ways) and most importantly made sure that everyone in his leadership team read and learned about Growth Mindset from Carol Dweck. If we do not upgrade our mental and organizational operating systems to adapt to a high velocity and increasingly connected world we will fail to thrive. Becoming Elastic. Every individual, team and firm can become elastic. Here are five ways to stretch: Align with the future. Stop benchmarking against existing competitors and fixating just on current marketing platforms. Two years ago, many were convinced we were living in Google and Facebook world. While Google and Meta remain critical and are likely to do so for many years, we now have TikTok, Amazon and Apple that have scaled as significant marketing platforms joined by a plethora of commerce platforms like Walmart and Roundel from Target. In addition, many companies are creating their own connection platforms whether it be Marriott or McDonalds. It is no longer a two-horse race. As we enter the Third Connected Age of the Internet, today's eco-system will look simple. Re-Think every aspect of the organization with a tomorrow lens. Like never before does the future not fit in the containers of the past. The future work force will be distributed, diverse, unbundled, empowered and older. They will be highly informed with many ways of monetizing their skills and often working for multiple companies. It's no longer a question of if or when but how fast. Companies focusing on returning to the office (versus maximizing the benefits of in-person interaction while ensuring flexibility) have not truly grasped the seismic changes in the future of work where this is just one of many challenges. Accelerate speed of decision making and collaboration. Stretch one's eco-system by incentivizing teamwork, being open to external partnerships and expertise and investing in upgrading skill sets and learning. Recognize that in a world of machine learning and fragmented behavior data will be exponentially more important. Not data itself but the ability to use data to illuminate opportunities, partnerships and ROI by understanding patterns, combining math, and meaning to drive data driven storytelling and create an underlying infrastructure of intelligence and form that keeps the business focused and informed in a chaotic media, consumer and competitive environment. Combine roots and wings. Elastic means to stretch but not to be deformed. It is critical that as companies and individuals create new wings to soar into the future, they do not forget the roots that made them and will continue to make them who they are. Whether this be purpose, values, brand reputation or culture it is key to combine what's next with what has been core. Become elastic as the future becomes elastic.