The New TV Season: Reboots and Reality Shows Are Sinking.

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The New TV Season: Reboots and Reality Shows Are Sinking.

 Fallon Counters a Move by Colbert.

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By John Koblin

·       Nov. 25, 2018

Two months into the new television season, there’s big ratings news: The N.F.L. is back!

Then there’s … everything else.

Viewership for entertainment programming on the broadcast networks continues to fall as audiences flock to streaming services like Netflix, Hulu and Amazon. Among adults under the age of 50, the number of viewers for network shows has tumbled an additional 10 percent this season.

Leadership changes at the four major broadcast networks have added to the uncertainty. Fox, ABC and NBC have all announced new heads of entertainment since September, and CBS ousted its longtime leader, Leslie Moonves, after multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct.

As for the shows themselves, medical dramas have made a comeback, reboots and reality shows have lost some of their luster, a veteran producer has proved his mettle yet again and a new front in the late-night wars has opened between Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Fallon.

Oh, and football. Viewers still can’t get enough, which has come as a relief to network executives.

Even with the internal upheaval and the continued migration of viewers to streaming services and premium cable outlets, the networks can still point to one sign of relevance: Their collective audience, while shrinking, is still huge. With several prime-time series moving into midseason hiatus, let’s look at the highlights and lowlights so far.

Reboots Are No Longer a Sure Bet

The good news for the “Murphy Brown” revival on CBS? Its audience is stable.

That’s about it.

The reboot of the classic sitcom has largely been a ratings dud. In the 18-to-49 age bracket, “Murphy Brown” ranks 43rd among entertainment programs, drawing roughly the same number of viewers as “The Cool Kids,” a Friday night comedy on Fox about retirees.

The show, which returned Candice Bergen to a role she inhabited through much of the 1990s, faced several built-in challenges. Many of its stars had been off the air for more than a decade, and episodes from its original run, which ended in 1998, are not available online, meaning it had not been able to cultivate a new audience.

Perhaps more important, the series has failed to generate the kind of buzz it had in the days when Vice President Dan Quayle attacked it for “mocking the importance of fathers” after the title character gave birth to a boy in the 1992 season finale.

Networks have employed the reboot strategy in recent years as a way to give viewers shows that are at once new and familiar. But as the tactic has lost its novelty, it has become less of a sure thing.

“Magnum P.I.” — which returned to CBS with the stubble-faced Jay Hernandez taking over the role once played by the mustachioed Tom Selleck — is performing at about the same level as “Murphy Brown.” And “Will & Grace,” the groundbreaking sitcom that NBC brought back with much fanfare in 2017, has lost more than half its audience from a year ago.

Fox has seen solid returns from “Last Man Standing,” a comedy starring Tim Allen that was revived this season after it was canceled by ABC in May 2017. And even without Roseanne Barr, “The Conners” has done well for ABC, generating numbers that suggest it is a sustainable draw. Through five episodes, its ratings are on a par with the CBS hit “Young Sheldon,” good enough for seventh place among entertainment programs. It is also ABC’s highest-rated sitcom.

It’s Morning in Late Night

The audience for late night is smaller than that of prime time, but the battle between “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” on CBS and “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” on NBC is perhaps fiercer than ever.

Viewers made their decision on which of the two late-night leaders they preferred in the opening weeks of the Trump administration, when Mr. Colbert, whose monologues regularly skewer the president, leapfrogged the fun-and-games-minded Mr. Fallon in total audience. Mr. Colbert has since become the runaway winner, typically leading his main rival by more than a million viewers a night.

But while the CBS show was on the rise, “The Tonight Show” managed to cling to something valuable: A lead in the 18-to-49 age bracket prized by advertisers.

Mr. Colbert has lately cut that lead to a mere 1,000 viewers. In an effort to keep him from further loosening Mr. Fallon’s grip on younger viewers, NBC made a big move last month, installing Jim Bell, a former longtime executive producer of “Today” and the current maestro of the network’s Olympics coverage, as the new “Tonight Show” boss.

In handing the show to Mr. Bell, NBC seemed to mimic a strategy employed by CBS in 2016, when it placed Chris Licht, a former producer of “CBS This Morning,” in charge of “The Late Show.” Under Mr. Licht’s guidance, the show made its steady climb to late-night ratings dominance.

Mr. Bell will have his work cut out for him. Nearly all of the late-night shows have had ratings decreases, but none have dropped like “The Tonight Show.” In the two years since President Trump was elected, Mr. Fallon has lost 28 percent of his audience, according to Nielsen. More worrisome to NBC, Mr. Fallon has lost 41 percent of adults under 50 in that time.

The host’s fortunes seemed to change in September 2016, when he playfully tousled Mr. Trump’s hair during an interview segment, a moment that has come to haunt Mr. Fallon. Mr. Bell will be waiting for another moment that sets social media aflame — but in a way that brings wayward viewers back to the venerable NBC franchise.

Dick Wolf, Broadcast Savior

As young viewers flee to streaming services, network executives are running to Mr. Wolf, the 71-year-old producer.

He accounts for an entire night of programming on NBC, with his three Chicago-based dramas on Wednesdays. Another of his NBC shows, “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” continues to deliver consistent results. And Mr. Wolf has a new series showing promise on CBS, “FBI.”

Mr. Wolf’s five dramas are among the 21 highest-rated shows on network television. “FBI” is the sixth-most-viewed drama of the season, with over 12 million viewers a week, according to Nielsen’s delayed-viewing data.

His empire is likely to grow. CBS is considering expanding the “FBI” franchise, with the chances of a spinoff series looking better each week.

Harsh Reality for Reality TV

One thing that is almost totally absent among television’s top-rated series: reality programming.

Barely squeaking into the top 10 is “The Voice,” the NBC singing competition whose numbers have slid. “Dancing With the Stars” has stumbled for ABC, down more than 31 percent this year. Add in a loss of 33 percent in the audience for ABC’s “Shark Tank,” and you have a trend that is keeping producers of so-called unscripted television awake at night.

 “The importance of reality and competition shows is waning,” said Preston Beckman, a former executive at NBC and Fox. “None of these shows are the biggest shows on television anymore. And they were once the drivers.”

The biggest bomb was an ABC talk show hosted by Alec Baldwin, which seems headed toward cancellation. The network moved it from Sunday to the prime-time boneyard of Saturday night.

There will be some attempts to reverse the trend. NBC plans to air a summertime hit, “America’s Got Talent,” in January, to see if its success can be replicated. “Survivor” keeps chugging away on CBS and will be back in the spring.

CBS will also debut “The World’s Best,” a talent competition show from the reality TV masterminds Mark Burnett and Mike Darnell, immediately after the broadcast of the Super Bowl in February. Mr. Darnell, who oversaw “American Idol” at Fox, is confident that the genre has not worn out its welcome.

“You can still get a big smash hit,” Mr. Darnell said.

At this point, the results may suggest otherwise.

Need Viewers? Call a Doctor

A Fox procedural series about emergency medical workers starring Angela Bassett, “9-1-1,” was a sleeper hit when it arrived at the tail end of last season.

Co-created by Ryan Murphy, the drama lacks the critical and cultural cachet of “Pose” or any of Mr. Murphy’s limited series, like “American Crime Story,” but it has continued to deliver. The show has scored the fifth-highest ratings among network entertainment programs and is the top scripted show on Fox.

NBC has scored hits with two new shows, the thriller “Manifest” and its medical drama “New Amsterdam.” “Manifest” is in third place among all entertainment shows, but it requires viewers to track intricate twists and turns, and its numbers have started to slide in recent weeks.

“This Is Us,” also on NBC, is again the No. 1 entertainment program among adults under 50, although its ratings are down from last year. “The Big Bang Theory,” the CBS stalwart that is scheduled to end its run next year as the longest-running multicamera comedy series ever, holds the No. 2 slot.

A notable development: One of television’s sturdiest genres, the medical drama, is resonating anew. In addition to NBC’s “New Amsterdam,” ABC has two medical shows, “Grey’s Anatomy” and “The Good Doctor,” among the ratings leaders. That trend will not be lost to network executives, said Mr. Beckman.

“There’s a very quiet, subtle increase in medical dramas,” he said. “And you’ll see more of them. Everybody is getting a little bit away from the procedurals. And everything’s a trend. Imitation is the greatest form of flattery in television.”

Los Angeles Times

Fox News launches ‘Fox Nation’ as news networks try to catch the streaming wave

By Stephen Battaglio

Nov 26, 2018 | 4:10 PM

Pro wrestler Tyrus and former ESPN correspondent Britt McHenry are among the new hosts on the new Fox Nation streaming service. (Fox News)

Whenever longtime Fox News executive John Finley walks through an airport in Dallas carrying a bag emblazoned with his company’s logo, strangers who are viewers of the cable channel come up to him and say, “Thank you.”

The words are less kind when he’s in politically liberal strongholds such as New York or Beverly Hills. But Finley believes the devotion to the conservative-leaning cable news channel in red states is deep enough that fans will shell out an extra $5.99 a month for an over-the-top streaming channel with Fox programming.

The service from Fox News, called Fox Nation, debuts Tuesday. It offers commentary programs, specialty shows and documentaries that feature familiar personalities including Sean Hannity, Brian Kilmeade, Steve Doocy, Laura Ingraham and Dana Perino.

The one element of Fox News that Fox Nation won’t have is live news — at least not yet. The advertising tagline for the service is “Opinion done right,” a play for the audience tuning in to the channel for conservative viewpoints. “It’s not a news product in the traditional sense of the word,” said Finley, senior vice president of development and production for Fox News.

Fox Nation is part of a movement by the major players in the TV news business targeting the growing number of viewers gravitating to streaming video and bypassing traditional pay-TV subscriptions. NBC News — which operates cable channel MSNBC — is launching a free over-the-top ad-supported streaming service next year and is already testing programming for it on NBCNews.com. CNN is also studying concepts for a direct-to-consumer streaming service but has not announced any launch plans.

Audiences for cable news tend to be older than the streaming crowd — the median age for MSNBC’s prime-time viewers is 67, followed by 66 for Fox News and 61 for CNN, according to Nielsen data. But the channels need to get their brand names in front of the younger consumers who are growing up without the pay-TV habit. In the current 2018-19 TV season, prime-time cable and broadcast TV usage has declined year-to-year by 15% among viewers ages 18 to 34, according to Nielsen.

False Logic In Advertising

False Logic In Advertising

By Roy Williams

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November 25, 2018

(By Roy Williams) Early in my career as an ad man I encountered a business owner who was hunkered down on a bit of false logic that flummoxed me for a while.

He said, “The Small Business Association says your ad budget should be 5 percent of sales. So that means every ad I run has to generate 20 times what I spend for it. Can you guarantee me a 20x return on investment if I buy what you’re selling?”

On the face of it, that logic seemed reasonable, but I knew it was wrong.

I’d love to say I went back and won that account with dazzling salesmanship and irrefutable logic, but I didn’t. I deeply disliked that man and I didn’t want him in my life, so I never went back. I had seen that he was angry and unhappy, and it appeared he was determined to share those feelings with the world.

I’ll explain why his logic was wrong in a moment, but first I want to encourage you to overcome the notion that everyone can be sold and should be sold. I don’t believe that and never have.

The simple truth is that you have a limited amount of time each month to devote to the maintenance of relationships. When you enter into a business relationship, you’re committing time and devotion to that other party, and you have a limited supply to give. So I’ve always given myself the freedom to connect only with those people I believe are worth including in my life.

I give you the freedom to do the same.

No sales manager wants to hear that, but there it is.

If I had believed the eyes of that unhappy man could be opened, I would have asked, “What percentage of your sales opportunities each month would you attribute to repeat customers and referral customers?”

Most business owners are proud to tell you that at least two-thirds of their customers are repeat and referral customers. Many will name numbers of 75 percent or higher. For sake of our example, let’s assume they said, “65 percent.”

“What percent of your sales opportunities are due to your location and your signage? How much of your traffic is attributable to the fact that people have seen you and know where you are?”

Their answer to that question will be determined by the investment they have made in securing a high-visibility location. Conversely, an in-home service business will usually say “zero” until you remind them that their truck and van wraps are a form of location signage. Then they’ll name a fairly significant number. Let’s assume they said, “15 percent.”

When you have added those first two numbers together — 65 percent and 15 percent — you can have a new conversation. But before we continue, it’s important that you understand that this is not a sales trick.

What I’m about to share with you is genuinely and honestly the correct way to think about advertising.

“This would mean that only about 20 percent of your sales opportunities are the direct result of your advertising, first-time customers who came to you only because of your ads. Does that number sound about right?”

The honest and open-minded business owner will usually say, “Yeah, that sounds about right.” That’s when I remind them of what they’ve always known. “Repeat customers come back to see you because they had a good experience the first time. Referral customers come because someone they believe in had a good experience with you. Repeat and referral customers are the sign of a healthy business.

“Customers who come to you because of your storefront visibility are the reward you get for knowing that expensive rent and expensive signage are the cheapest advertising money can buy.

“Your great sales team and wonderful service are giving you repeat and referral customers. And your signage is doing everything that it can do.

“What I’m offering you does only three things:
“1. It brings new customers into your store for the first time, giving you the opportunity to make them into repeat customers who refer other people to you.

“2. It elevates your name and reputation in the minds of your existing customers, causing them to think of you immediately when they, or any of their friends, need what you sell.

“3. It familiarizes your name and reputation with the referral customer, so that when your customer tells them about you, they remember you and say, ‘Yeah, I’ve heard good things about that company.’
“Getting customers to come back to you is cheap and easy, provided they had a good experience the first time. The purpose of an ad budget is to give you the opportunity to deliver that all-important first experience to new customers. 

NBC To Reduce Ad Load, Lessen Reliance On Traditional Measurements

• by Wayne Friedman , Yesterday

NBCUniversal plans further commercial load cuts and less reliance on “legacy” measurement.
“Our industry faces an exciting inflection point, we must go even further,” says Linda Yaccarino, chairman of advertising and client partnerships, NBCUniversal, in an end-of-year memo sent to staffers.

In March, NBC said it would reduce its prime-time commercial ad loads by 10% across its networks and its average length of commercial breaks by 20%.

“People love our premium content and trust our family of networks. We must honor their experience as we design better ways to engage with brands. That’s why we’ll continue to reduce time and clutter and expand Prime Pods across the portfolio.”

This season, NBC started one-minute Prime Pods, which began airing in the 50 top shows on NBCU’s broadcast and cable networks this season.

Also, Yaccarino says: “We’re going to lessen our reliance on legacy measurement. Instead, we’ll continue to invest in measurement that focuses on audiences and business outcomes, including scaling CFlight across our entire portfolio.”

CFlight was introduced last season. It expands NBC’s guarantees in covering advertisers’ entire campaigns on its platforms -- beyond standard industry metrics of C3 or C7, the average minute commercial ratings plus three or seven days of time-shifted viewing.

NBCU will also concentrate on expanding efforts around more automated buying offerings. In addition, it will focus more on “safety” -- especially on digital platforms, where there is high concern over fraud.

NBC will continue to build advertiser platforms for “mass reach and targeted audiences,” part of its effort in starting ROI programs for direct-to-consumer businesses.

IAB Ad Revenue Continues Upward

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 All Research Brief reports are selected by the editor to be most relevant for our readers. For reports noted as "Spotlight" we have a revenue sharing relationship with the provider. This model helps underwrite what is otherwise free. Our first and most important principle is that Research Brief serve reader interests and needs. If you have new and noteworthy research you would like featured, find out more here. IAB Ad Revenue Continues Upward by Jack Loechner, Staff Writer The IAB internet advertising revenue report 2018, for the first six months conducted by PwC and sponsored by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, shows the IAB internet advertising revenue report, now in its 23rd year at November 2018, revenues increase 23.1% from HY 2017. Year-to-date revenues continue to show strong growth with agility, commerce, audio, Gen Z’s, and digital video highlight as this year’s growth drivers. Revenues grew 22.9% between Q1 and Q2 2018. Mobile commands 62.5% of total digital ad revenues, while Q2 2018 revenues reach $25.6b and the first 6 months reach $49.5b. The top 10 companies command 76% of the market, and Search still leads all formats at 46.1%  Video climbs to a 13.6% share of overall revenues  62.5% of all revenues are now attributed to mobile  Mobile digital video revenue grows 60.5%  Mobile digital video revenue hit $4.2b  $13.1b of digital ad revenue attributable to social  Digital audio revenues approach $1b  Hybrid shoots up to 4.6% of total ad revenues  CPM and performance stay relatively flat  The background of the PwC | IAB internet advertising revenue report says that the IAB internet advertising revenue report, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (“PwC”) on an ongoing basis, provides results released quarterly. The “IAB internet advertising revenue report” was initiated by the interactive advertising Bureau (IAB) in 1996, and utilizes data and information reported directly to PwC from companies selling advertising on the internet, as well as publicly available corporate data. The results reported are considered to be a reasonable measurement of internet/online/mobile advertising revenues because much of the data is compiled directly from information supplied by companies selling advertising online. The report includes data reflecting desktop and mobile online advertising revenues from websites, commercial online services, ad networks and exchanges, mobile devices, and email providers, as well as other companies selling online advertising. Internet advertising revenues in the United States totaled $49.5 billion for the first six months of 2018, with Q1 2018 accounting for approximately $23.9 billion and Q2 2018 accounting for approximately $25.6 billion, says the report. Revenues for the first six months of 2018 increased 23.1% over the first six months of 2017. Internet advertising revenues in the United States totaled $25.6 billion in the second quarter of 2018, an increase of 7.2% from the 2018 first quarter total of $23.9 billion, and an increase of 22.9% from the 2017 second quarter total of $20.8 billion. Advertising revenues delivered on mobile devices totaled $30.9 billion in HY 2018, a 42.0% increase from the prior half year revenues of $21.8 billion. Advertising delivered on a mobile device now makes up 62.5% of total internet advertising revenues. “Over the course of the last 23 years, this report has served as the official tracking mechanism of the size of the digital advertising industry and the trends propelling its ongoing rise. This 2018 half year report continues to drive awareness of the great influence of this industry, and specifically the great transformation that has occurred in the advertising ecosystem,” says the PwC | IAB internet advertising revenue report from David Silverman, Partner, PwC.

Now More Than Ever: Personal Presentation Tips for the Digital Age

Now More Than Ever: Personal Presentation Tips for the Digital Age

Mon, 11/26/2018 - 05:47

Author: Marc H. Kalan

Over five years ago, I shared my personal presentation tips in a three-part series published in the online edition of “The Journal of Sales and Marketing Management.” Half a decade (and more) later, as the digital revolution continues its unstoppable tsunami throughout our personal and professional lives, the individual’s abilities to effectively communicate have never been more important, more self-evident, and more under siege.

As a former vice president of marketing, as a former vice president of sales, and for the past 15-plus years, as a professor of marketing, I see the need for oral as well as written communications to be severely challenged at a time when we need more effective communications in our highly fragmented and extremely challenging climate.

Today’s future business leaders reject traditional communications vehicles and information sources, perhaps reflecting the current social and political environments (is news real or fake?). Rather, they are more likely to source, use and communicate information via social media with its new rules and new – often severe – limitations and restrictions on proper grammar and spelling (e.g. Twitter length of messaging at 280 characters , text messaging abbreviations and alliterations, “likes and dislikes” replacing real commentary, etc.) that are leading quickly to a deterioration of individual skills and abilities. For those who matured in an earlier era, it’s LOL! (And is that “Lots of Luck” or “Laugh Out Loud”? Both seem viable to me.)

Building Communication Skills In the Digital Age
Traditionally, good writers develop from good readers; read a lot and you build grammar and vocabulary skills. Good readers make good communicators and good communicators make superior sales and marketing professionals. After all, marketing and sales are both professions where strong communication skills are tantamount.

Unfortunately, today’s students prefer to watch a YouTube video, or spend time getting information from unreliable sources like Facebook, or just share pictures on Pinterest or Instagram, none of which build communications abilities. Rather, each tends to limit those abilities by substituting simple visuals (visuals are fun of course and everyone enjoys fun) for deeper, well-thought-out points of discussion and social discourse. These are the elements of true thought, and effective business communications requires clear thinking and effective expression.

In today’s competitive climate, I teach my professional business students it’s not what you know or how smart you are. There are a lot of intelligent people (really there are), and each year, our business schools graduate more and more smart and highly technically skilled competition. In today’s complex and dynamic business environment, therefore, it’s not what you know. Today, standout individuals are evident by how effectively they communicate what they know. The differentiator is effective communication, as knowledge and analytic skills are a base requirement and only a foundation. Success in business requires much more.

My earlier articles identified a wide array of key personal skills that separate the average and mundane (and who is happy being average and mundane) from the truly superior.

Skills for Success
Recently, deans from over 50 leading business schools across the country met at the Rutgers Business School of Newark and New Brunswick attending the “Innovations in Graduate Business Education” conference. This was a major coming together of those who are tasked with leading the educations of our future business leaders, responding to the issue of what future business education in the ever-expanding digital world needs to incorporate so that future business leaders in all fields, and especially in marketing and sales, have the skills to lead in this truly revolutionary digital environment, as the information revolution continues to reshape our economy and our lives.
Entrepreneurship, innovation, technology: important topics all. Interestingly, one of the first panel topics undertaken by these leaders of business education reflects future needs, rather than current characteristics of a traditional business education. The topic: digital disruptions in business education learning and the technical/digital skills that business leaders have, desire and have identified will be needed in this era of big data and analytics. It’s no coincidence that new areas of focus such as MRIA (marketing research, insights and analytics on the graduate level) and BAIT (business analytic and information technology on the undergraduate level) are rapidly growing and popular majors at the Rutgers Business School.

None the less, the importance of personal presentation abilities were clearly identified by this audience of leading business school deans as the critical soft skills often not directly discussed, and generally not taught or emphasized (just not sexy like digital marketing), but when included in the discussion are deemed critical for future business managers and leaders, and most critically, for future business success in all fields.

Superior and even just good communication skills are not generally intuitive. But they are teachable, and it’s up to today’s managerial class to challenge all future managers and business professionals to develop these personal abilities. As we have learned, it’s what you are able to share, to present, to communicate, that demonstrates the individual’s insights and depth of understanding. As a marketing and sales practitioner of long standing, and now as an instructor of same, I could not agree more.

Marc H. Kalan is an assistant professor of professional practice in the marketing department of the Rutgers Business School of Newark and New Brunswick.

Advertising Is Strong

Advertising Is Strong

November 26, 2018

That’s the word from Pivotal Research Group Senior Research Analyst Brian Wieser who’s revising his expectations for U.S. advertising in both 2018 and 2019. Wieser is now calling for 6.5% growth in 2018, up from his previous 4.8% forecast. And his new 2019 forecast is 4.0% growth, which is up from his previously predicted growth of 3.5%. Digital is strong of course, but what about radio?

Wieser says digital is driving all of the growth in advertising, but it’s not all about money shifting from traditional media. “We think this trend is aided to only a small degree by large, traditionally distributed brands shifting budget shares away from non-digital advertising. Instead, we think it is driven by ongoing shifts of spending into digital from small businesses, the growth of e-commerce, app developers, and direct-to-consumer brands (including those owned by manufacturers of traditional brands).

Through the first half of 2018, digital advertising in all of its forms grew by +23% to account for around 45% of all ad spending. Our preliminary estimate is that digital advertising grew at a slower pace in 3Q18 vs. the result recorded in the first half, with Google holding relatively steady but with Amazon, Facebook, and Oath decelerating among the largest media owners.”
Wieser says his numbers show him that radio was soft in Q3, with local down and national up. That’s in line with what we reported from radio’s public companies in the third quarter. “Local radio can remain a highly effective and heavily consumed medium for the foreseeable future, but unfortunately for its media owners, advertising budgets across all media have generally shifted towards national platforms rather than local ones. And because of that trend the historical local skew of the industry’s ad products cause radio to grow slower than it would have if the medium had evolved with a national orientation.”

Television grew around 10% including political advertising, or fell by 1% excluding political, according to Wieser. “National TV was up slightly, probably similar to 2Q18’s sub +1% growth rate. Over longer time horizons, we continue to anticipate a modest underlying rate of decline for national TV because the dominant advertisers on that medium are generally weak. Newer advertisers are not dependent enough on TV to make up the difference. Looking forward, we note that as traditional owners expand their digital advertising activities, and as digital media owners push further into “traditional” media such as ad-supported premium TV, the distinctions between these media types will become increasingly blurry, impacting the utility of forecasts for specific media types based on historical definitions of a given medium.”

Wieser says print will continue to decline by double digits

COMMENTARY

TV Stations' Competitive Pricing Just Became A Bigger Deal

• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, November 15, 2018

Getting competitive TV advertising information has always been a big deal for TV sales executives. Now, in a demanding competitive environment, it's even more pressing. But did some go too far?

The Department of Justice has struck an agreement with six TV station groups -- Sinclair Broadcast Group, Raycom Media, Tribune Media, Meredith Corp., Griffin Communications and Dreamcatcher Broadcasting (a company aligned with Tribune Media) -- to settle a DOJ lawsuit about sharing advertising information.

The lawsuit alleged companies engaged in unlawful agreements with third-party firms to illegally coordinate sales of local advertising spots, sharing non-public, competitively sensitive information with broadcast TV competitors.

The DOJ said TV stations shared “pacing” of advertising information. Typically, pacing involves how advertising revenues are trending during a certain period -- including the trending of pricing/CPM hikes (or drops), as well as total ad-revenue dollar volume.

It can give TV stations specific information into how much their competitors intend to raise -- or lower -- pricing during a particular month or quarter. From this, participating TV station groups can adjust their pricing accordingly.

So now what? Higher pricing? Lower pricing? A combination?

Media agencies and local TV advertisers might have seen higher pricing with many of their campaigns -- especially by smaller advertising/media buying companies that don’t have access or the wherewithal to deep analytic data. Is that good news?

For TV station groups, this decision might yield tougher ongoing results -- especially from core TV advertisers, where local TV station owners haven’t seen much, if any, big growth recently.

That said, there has been higher revenue from political advertisers -- candidates, super-PAC marketers and others. This is something TV stations have increasingly relied on in recent years.

Still, for many of these political advertisers, TV stations are legally required to offer marketers the lowest rate for this inventory. Big volume revenue gains make up for this — coming against some collateral damage of pushing out core advertisers' media schedules.

In addition to every-other-year big gains for political advertising, TV also relies on steady, increasing retransmission fee revenue.

Total U.S. local TV station advertising revenues have generally been stuck around the $20 billion-per-year level for some time. Digital advertising growth for TV stations hasn’t picked up the slack. Many TV stations' ad executives admit to their slow efforts.

For that reason, we can see why some TV stations increasingly may be looking at other ways to make up ground.

COMMENTARY

Spot TV Measurement Improvements Should Not Equal An Accountability Black Hole

• by Michael Solomon , Op-Ed Contributor, 7 hours ago

As most in the industry are aware, Nielsen is making updates to its panels and methodologies across all Designated Market Area (DMA) market types. It was announced in September, 2016 that the paper diary would be retired; it was officially retired in May, 2018.

Markets which had been measured via diaries were transitioned to “RPD+” measurement beginning in July 2018.  RPD+ leverages set-top box return-path data (in conjunction with strategically-placed code readers and other panel data) to provide ongoing measurement with monthly “books” like in larger DMAs.

The specific timing of the currency change and the availability of “Impact Data” (RPD+ data produced for earlier measurement periods) evolved as Nielsen received feedback from the marketplace and made refinements, based on its assessments of early impact data.

This overall change in measurement methodology has, however, been known to all media agencies and media sellers for a long time.

Any methodology change has the potential to create some level of uncertainty and instability in the marketplace. Audience shares and ratings will exhibit some shifts. Exacerbating this challenge has been the timing of the shift — particularly in relation to the timing of the issuance (and reissuance) of so-called “Impact Data,” which allows buyers and sellers to compare real measurement data for the same time period across both methodologies.  

There Has Been Time To Prepare

In an ideal world, media buyers and media sellers would have had a full year’s worth of Impact Data on RPD+ to compare against Diary. We do not pretend that data availability from Nielsen has been ideal for this transition. However:

• November, 2017 and February, 2018 impact data was released in June 2018
• July RPD+ data was released 9/4-9/6
• August RPD+ data was released 10/1-10/3
• September RPD+ data was released 10/29-10/31

This collectively should have allowed adequate time for buyers to re-rate their Q3 and Q4 buys on the new currency, providing updated audience estimates to post against. Barring this, accountability might be based on the Diary estimates, despite the fact that two differing methodologies make for an imperfect comparison.

Any pre-agreed changes in delivery threshold should have been documented between the parties – prior to schedules airing, not after the fact.

It is possible, therefore, for advertisers to hold media agencies and media sellers accountable, and they should not be asked to forego accountability, due to a marketplace currency transition. Delivery accountability is part of what they paid for, because it is built into the marketplace expectation in this media channel.

If they were not going to receive said accountability, advertisers’ purchase costs should have been adjusted downward to compensate them accordingly. (We’ve yet to hear of any such arrangement.)

Advertisers Should Still Expect Accountability

Advertisers should expect accountability during and after the transition to RPD+ measurement.  The advertiser’s media agency has purchased an audience on the client’s behalf, and that client should receive some quantification as to the degree to which it was delivered.  

If there were to be no actionability behind RPD+ data in third-quarter 2018, then why produce it and call it currency— or charge media buyers and media sellers for this improved currency? Advertisers should not have to suffer through one or more quarters with no meaningful delivery accountability.

Nielsen has provided media agencies and media sellers with guidance on appropriate and permissible use of the Diary data, Impact Data and the RPD+ currency data published beginning in July,2018.  

Essentially, Nielsen discourages comparing new audience estimates (RPD+) with data from Diary surveys, stating: “There is not a commonality between the diary and RPD+ methodologies.” However, they acknowledge “it is critical to remember that media buyers and media sellers have, in good faith, made agreements based on diary currency, Advertisers, also acting in good faith, have agreed to pay for that inventory.”

A few things seem clear:

• Advertisers should not have to submit to a free-for-all period where there is no accountability (or where it is unreasonably relaxed).
• Buyers and sellers have known about this transition for a long time.
• Buyers and sellers should have communicated and documented accountability expectations for the period following the transition long before it occurred.

Moving Forward

The good news is that the result of these changes will provide ongoing measurement with greatly increased stability in these DMAs. Sample sizes, or “In Tabs” in these DMAs, will increase from 5x to more than 100x by market. Until the marketplace begins to reap the benefits of this improvement in measurement, it is reasonable to expect media buyers and media sellers to work together in good faith during this transition period.  

However, media buyers represent advertisers, and clients should not be asked to forego reasonable accountability expectations. This would be akin to asking them to foot the entire bill for the cost of the transition to the entire ecosystem, and that is not appropriate.