The world has been stunned by the events of
the past few months. We have endured the fact
that Wall Street and their partners in the banking
business have been treating the economy with a
casino consciousness. Their practices fostered by
deregulation manifested by CEOs who looked to
line their own pockets instead of their shareholders
placed a burden on the consuming public by
using the resources of Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac to back illiquid mortgages. In addition to the
housing fallout, those ancillary businesses dependent
on home ownership, its care, maintenance
and repair suffer greatly. Banks afraid of making
loans to one another, let alone providing financing
to what they think is a suspicious consumer, appear
frozen but slowly thawing. However, not fast
enough to reignite the economy.
Jobs have been lost in great abundance, Detroit
is poised to see disaster should any or all of
the big three file for bankruptcy protection. The
middle class has been staying home—not shopping,
driving or flying—until they feel some relief
in energy prices. Many media companies have felt
a great pinch from losses in ad revenues yet are
somewhat relieved by the millions spent on political
advertising. Local firms fret about the current
times and what lies ahead amidst neighboring
businesses that have vanished overnight.
As people have felt a loss of balance, I reminded
myself of the works of Arthur Somers Roche,
a wonderful film writer and novelist in the 1930s
who would say of what’s going on today “that
fear mongering has replaced positive thought and
feeding anxiety which becomes a stream of dread
trickling through the mind, which if encouraged,
cuts a channel into which all other thoughts are
drained.” So many Americans are fraught with
what’s going on in their world it seems impossible
for them to think clearly and believe there are better
days ahead.
Now we have a new president whose ideals, philosophies
and coming policies will hopefully lead our country out of its
current malaise with a steady and firm hand, yet
realizing that the mountain of debt that has been
built with take time to dismantle. Whether your political party or not..President Obama needs your support....
In our media world I can remember the many
times we as a nation felt a similar financial burden.
But today it seems so much more complex,
affecting the entire global community. Our clients
are worried about keeping their businesses afloat,
which affects the lives of so many others; sending
their kids to college; continuing to pay the mortgage;
and maintaining a healthy lifestyle. So what
are we going to do to help them?
We can’t let them bury their heads in the sand
and let the world pass by because that will have
an effect on your world as well. They’ve got to
realize that now is the time to push ahead and not
get caught up in pessimistic thinking. Consistency
in media marketing must be their business model.
We know what happens when businesses stop
advertising. Current and potential customers stop
going to their business…then the business suffers
greater losses. We have learned from past recessions
that when a business continues to push their
market share, it’s always the best solution. When
the market returns, a business can double and
triple their market share against competition who
stayed on the sideline. Sure, our courage as well
as theirs will be tested, but over time our economy
will recover and we will all see better times.
So in the meantime, here is a current snapshot
of what local businesses should do according
to one retail expert, Dr. Tom DeCotiis, founder of
enterprise growth consulting firm CorVirtus and
author of the new book “Make it Glow.”
The key to business survival in a down economy
is having built up enough customer loyalty and
customer trust to weather the storm.
Here are Dr. DeCotiis’ five essential tips to
make it through a tough economy and lay the
groundwork for even more success.
1. Focus Your Employees on Creating Positive
Customer Transactions
Insist that your employees provide a great experience
every time, and teach them how to do it.
Train every employee in proper customer service
procedures and ensure they clearly understand
the importance of the customer to the company’s,
and their own, survival. In difficult times,
companies don’t get a second chance to
make a good impression on customers.
2. Ensure Your Customer Feels Valued
Customers need to valued, not just for
their money, but for who they are. Make
sure that your company is addressing
your customers’ need for a strong sense
of belonging and significance. For example,
make sure that your staff is positive
and proactive with complaints rather
than negative and reactive.
3. Set Your Customer Expectations
It’s not a matter of exceeding customer
expectations, but guaranteeing that
your customers are never disappointed.
Use your company’s unique selling point
to shape your customer’s expectations.
Saks Fifth Avenue sell their consumers
on their exclusive and elegant shopping
experience, when customers go into their
retail outlets they are not disappointed.
4. Ensure That Your Employees Understand
Your Company’s Values
People are drawn to integrity whether
it comes from another person or a company
they buy from. If your employees
understand what your company is trying
to accomplish, then they will accomplish
it. This is important to remember as owners
train managers, who train employees,
and so on. The result of this communication
chain is a lack of consistency and
alignment with the original values of the
company. Spot check different locations
of your business with “secret shoppers,”
people posing as customers who will report
to you their experiences. This will tell
you exactly how your company’s values
are being adhered to.
5. Evaluate How Cutting Costs Will
Affect Your Customer
There is a big difference between cutting
and managing costs. What you never
want to do is cut quality. A company lives
or dies by its reputation, and quality is at
least one-third of its reputation.
Remember, You Earn the Business
You Deserve Customers who love you will never
leave you, or will only do so as a last resort.
The key to surviving in a down economy
is to not lose sight of what matter’s
most--keeping customers happy. “Focus
on keeping your company worthy of your
customers’ loyalty,” says Dr. DeCotiis. “If
you do, then you will propel your business
through this downturn and create
a solid foundation from which to grow in
the future.”
Share these thoughts with your current
and potential clients as it will demonstrate
a difference between you and
just another spot schlepper. It will endear
you to them and help define you as one
to whom they can entrust their business.
Happy days will come sooner.
Our worst misfortunes never happen,
and most miseries lie in anticipation.
— Honore de Balzac
“Nothing in life is more remarkable
than the unnecessary anxiety which we
endure, and generally create ourselves.”
— Benjamin Disraeli
Friday, January 30, 2009
How to Get Out of a Slump and Reach Your Peak
A new year to rebuild has started. There are some
stumbling blocks to cross MENTALLY before settling in on
a continuum of growing revenue share, albeit much more
competitive with new media and newer venues with which to
reach the mobile consumer. The housing slump is sucking
out a large segment of the consumer’s purchasing power
as consumers use the value of their homes to borrow more
money to buy things such as furniture, floor covering, remodeling
and consumer electronics. Those who bought homes at
prices far more than they can afford will be affected, as will
consumers who bought homes with subprime mortgages.
The housing credit crunch is spreading to credit card debt,
and while the fed is trying to stimulate the economy or keep
it from reaching greater recessionary risks, speculation is
that the $150B stimulus package being offered by the Bush
administration is not enough.
If businesses panic and do not continue to maintain their
market share, local share of voice and media marketing
against the competition, for sure they will promote themselves
into their own recession. As in the past, panic breeds panic
and crisis management takes over. You must head it off by
constantly reminding your clients that history shows those
businesses who stayed the course during difficult times
doubled their market share when the economy resumed its
upward course.
But what do we do with sellers during these times who
have let themselves slip into a slump as a result of all the
negative news, or those who have found the media feeding
frenzy they once enjoyed come to a pause and they have
peaked? Let’s discuss peak performance and what is seen
when it takes pause.
I just finished a conference call with a management
group whose sales team traditionally hits the mark every
quarter, and has had strong revenue years. They said the
bloom has recently fallen off the rose. The managers and I
discussed what to do; how to get the most out of each team
member every waking moment; how to squeeze maximum
sales performance and every dime out of every budget for
which you compete and, more importantly, how to keep peak
performance in continuum before experiencing total burnout.
More turnover in the sales arena, in addition to economic
woes, manifests chaos in revenue growth; a situation managers
do not need to face.
Peak performers are often silent counselors to those who
are up and coming even during tough times like these. If those
top dogs get complacent, they may send the message, “If you
have enough pitches out there and throw enough against the
wall, money will come.” The behavior of the new hires often
reflects what they hear and see from successful peers and
they respond accordingly.
To help motivate those who have reached a peak, some
managers hire those motivational speakers during hard times
to eliminate the “dreaminess” or slacking, but the results are
expensive and short lived.
Peak performance is mostly interdependent of each sales
individual’s ability and drive. If one visualizes positive growth
in difficult economic times, their sales intensify. Hindering sales
growth may come for other factors such as an employee
whose spouse or significant other is making a good living
and the employee is coasting, has no drive, no motivation.
The results become evident.
Sure, one of the things to do with those who have fallen
off their horse is to counsel having a positive mental attitude
all the time; good time management techniques, drive, courage,
intellectual and cognitive skills, as well as the ability to
write imaginative copy for the client are excellent tools. But
the model of how to get more out of life or when everything
in life isn’t enough isn’t “Drive! Drive! Drive!” In its stead is
the reallocation of energy.
Jim Loehr, Ph.D., who wrote The Power of Full Engagement
says there’s more than toughing it out every week, month
after month. If you are going after it constantly but seemingly
getting nowhere fast, you’re suffering from “disengagement.”
Being disengaged or emotionally spent costs media companies
millions of dollars each year. A dead employee is even
more expensive.
With everything in the media business changing so rapidly,
peak pressures in media are every day of your life. It seems
with the multitasking that is expected of everyone today,
nobody seems to have time for proper exercise, nutrition
or rest. Everyone seems to have the same old excuses. No
one thinks of rest, or resting the mind and body…it’s one
slam after another. The body best regenerates energy when
appropriate rest is taken. Yet most people don’t stop until
something serious happens. In tough times, healthy nutrition,
exercise and mental rest helps rebuild stamina and the
immune system.
The media world is one where many eat in their car, have
sleepless nights, and don’t disengage from a work situation
when the body is signaling to rest. It’s always run-run-run,
pick up the kids, pick up the dry cleaning, make dinner, wash
the dishes, do the laundry, put the kids to bed, watch the 11
o’clock news, write copy for the client, then go to bed.
If you’re going to grow your company as well as yourself,
start thinking like an athlete–maybe a corporate media
athlete–who understands energy, concentrating on things
that are top priority when necessary, and letting go when
you’re done.
There are three main elements that produce
stress: Physical, weight loss and mental stress.
Riding a stationary or street bike, lifting weights,
running, jogging, or forms of aerobic exercise,
when done right, produce stress where it counts,
in the muscles and vital organs of the body. The
entire physical exercise initiative is to ‘stress’
the muscles in your body, followed by a recovery
period. I mentioned weight-loss because I have
observed media people eat–in terms of what
and when they eat–and it is greatly distressing.
Obesity stresses your heart and vital organs,
which, in addition puts stress on life and living.
When exercising, the fundamental consideration
is cardio-training. In addition, proper nutrition is
vital to stress reduction.
Mental stress causes eventual burnout. You,
a loved one or colleague, may be suffering from
burnout, not just from pushing hard during tough
economic times, but as a result of everything
seemingly coming at you at once. Here are some
early warning signs to watch for:
1. Chronic fatigue, exhaustion, a sense of being
physically run down all the time
2. Anger at coworkers, the boss, family or loved
ones who are making demands
3. Self-criticism for putting up with the demands
4. Cynicism, negativity and irritability
5. A sense of being besieged by everything
6. Exploding easily at seemingly inconsequential
things such as taking out the trash or watching
little Joshua
7. Frequent headaches and gastrointestinal
disturbances
8. Weight loss or gain
9. Sleeplessness and depression
10. Shortness of breath
11. Suspiciousness
12. Feelings of helplessness
13. Increased degree of risk taking
Stress is thought to increase the risk of heart
disease and stroke in a variety of ways, such as
raising blood pressure and affecting how the
blood flows and clots. Sometimes we are not able
to change our environment to manage stress.
Imagery is a useful skill for relaxing in these situations.
Imagery is a valuable method of stress reduction
when you combine it with physical relaxation
techniques such as the breathing exercises I
learned from Dr. Andrew Weil. [See drweilselfhealing.
com or drweil.com] Try to get Dr. Weil’s book
Breathing: The Master Key to Self Healing, or
check out Conscious Breathing by Gay Hendricks;
Bantam Books. I read it 12 years ago and it still
works exceedingly well. The principle behind the
use of imagery for stress reduction is that you can
use the vividness of your imagination to recreate
and enjoy a scenario that was relaxing and extremely
enjoyable. The more intensely you imagine
the scene, the more relaxing the experience will
be. With self-guided imagery, you substitute your
actual experience with scenes from your imagination.
Your body reacts to these imagined scenes
as if they were real, thus calming you.
Other things you can do to reduce stress and
maintain peak performance are massage therapy,
acupuncture, and taking what I call a “news fast.”
The media lately is a constant source of worry
and fear. Even though it’s “part of the business,”
watching TV, listening to radio, going on the Internet
or reading the paper, all can cause stress.
Think of how we are bombarded with “bad
news.” Whether it’s the ongoing war in Iraq, high
energy prices, the housing fallout, fears of recession,
“if it bleeds, it leads!” Now, combine that kind
of news input in your brain with the pressures of
making budget, making collections, keeping the
job, cold calling, the new job, paying bills, the
kids, arguments on the home front, getting that
overdue promotion, getting fired, having road rage
in rush-hour traffic, the divorce, the wedding, the
new baby, the new house, credit cards maxed, I’d
say you’ve got a lot going on in your mind.
How about just turning off the media for a few
days? See if just that small change in your life
can make a difference. Go shopping. When I was
stressed (and made budget for the quarter), I’d
buzz off and buy something nice for my wife, the
kids or myself. That made me feel great! Sometimes
just blowing off the day when you have reached
your peak of stress is also good for a little peace
of mind. Wearing the stress in front of the client
isn’t cool either. They see it. So, blow off for a day.
The day after will be better.
Stress and anxiety attacks don’t go away unless
your mind tells them to. Hug your spouse. You got
married for thick or thin, in sickness and in health,
for better or for worse. That’s your real support
system. Take your spouse out to dinner, have a
glass of red wine. Unload some of the stuff. Love
is a great healer. Love IS the drug!
Take the kids to the ball game, play with them,
talk to them, and involve yourself in them. Hug your
pet. Research has proven that the unconditional
love we get from our pets is great for stress reduction.
Whenever I hold my little schnauzers Tigger
and Luci Roo, all my stress goes away. Get a copy
of Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff—and It’s All Small
Stuff by Richard Carlson. He says, “Often we allow
ourselves to get all worked up about things that,
upon closer examination, aren’t really that big a
deal.”
One last idea: Laugh more. There is nothing
like a good belly laugh. It’s so healing. Happy
people generally don’t get sick. You don’t stop
laughing when you get old. You get old when you
stop laughing.
Henry Ward Beecher once said, “A person
without a good sense of humor is like a wagon
without springs…jolted by every pebble in the
road.”
Whether you’re in a slump or have reached a
peak in your career, it’s time for rebirth.
Sooo. get on it already and stop the whining….lol.
stumbling blocks to cross MENTALLY before settling in on
a continuum of growing revenue share, albeit much more
competitive with new media and newer venues with which to
reach the mobile consumer. The housing slump is sucking
out a large segment of the consumer’s purchasing power
as consumers use the value of their homes to borrow more
money to buy things such as furniture, floor covering, remodeling
and consumer electronics. Those who bought homes at
prices far more than they can afford will be affected, as will
consumers who bought homes with subprime mortgages.
The housing credit crunch is spreading to credit card debt,
and while the fed is trying to stimulate the economy or keep
it from reaching greater recessionary risks, speculation is
that the $150B stimulus package being offered by the Bush
administration is not enough.
If businesses panic and do not continue to maintain their
market share, local share of voice and media marketing
against the competition, for sure they will promote themselves
into their own recession. As in the past, panic breeds panic
and crisis management takes over. You must head it off by
constantly reminding your clients that history shows those
businesses who stayed the course during difficult times
doubled their market share when the economy resumed its
upward course.
But what do we do with sellers during these times who
have let themselves slip into a slump as a result of all the
negative news, or those who have found the media feeding
frenzy they once enjoyed come to a pause and they have
peaked? Let’s discuss peak performance and what is seen
when it takes pause.
I just finished a conference call with a management
group whose sales team traditionally hits the mark every
quarter, and has had strong revenue years. They said the
bloom has recently fallen off the rose. The managers and I
discussed what to do; how to get the most out of each team
member every waking moment; how to squeeze maximum
sales performance and every dime out of every budget for
which you compete and, more importantly, how to keep peak
performance in continuum before experiencing total burnout.
More turnover in the sales arena, in addition to economic
woes, manifests chaos in revenue growth; a situation managers
do not need to face.
Peak performers are often silent counselors to those who
are up and coming even during tough times like these. If those
top dogs get complacent, they may send the message, “If you
have enough pitches out there and throw enough against the
wall, money will come.” The behavior of the new hires often
reflects what they hear and see from successful peers and
they respond accordingly.
To help motivate those who have reached a peak, some
managers hire those motivational speakers during hard times
to eliminate the “dreaminess” or slacking, but the results are
expensive and short lived.
Peak performance is mostly interdependent of each sales
individual’s ability and drive. If one visualizes positive growth
in difficult economic times, their sales intensify. Hindering sales
growth may come for other factors such as an employee
whose spouse or significant other is making a good living
and the employee is coasting, has no drive, no motivation.
The results become evident.
Sure, one of the things to do with those who have fallen
off their horse is to counsel having a positive mental attitude
all the time; good time management techniques, drive, courage,
intellectual and cognitive skills, as well as the ability to
write imaginative copy for the client are excellent tools. But
the model of how to get more out of life or when everything
in life isn’t enough isn’t “Drive! Drive! Drive!” In its stead is
the reallocation of energy.
Jim Loehr, Ph.D., who wrote The Power of Full Engagement
says there’s more than toughing it out every week, month
after month. If you are going after it constantly but seemingly
getting nowhere fast, you’re suffering from “disengagement.”
Being disengaged or emotionally spent costs media companies
millions of dollars each year. A dead employee is even
more expensive.
With everything in the media business changing so rapidly,
peak pressures in media are every day of your life. It seems
with the multitasking that is expected of everyone today,
nobody seems to have time for proper exercise, nutrition
or rest. Everyone seems to have the same old excuses. No
one thinks of rest, or resting the mind and body…it’s one
slam after another. The body best regenerates energy when
appropriate rest is taken. Yet most people don’t stop until
something serious happens. In tough times, healthy nutrition,
exercise and mental rest helps rebuild stamina and the
immune system.
The media world is one where many eat in their car, have
sleepless nights, and don’t disengage from a work situation
when the body is signaling to rest. It’s always run-run-run,
pick up the kids, pick up the dry cleaning, make dinner, wash
the dishes, do the laundry, put the kids to bed, watch the 11
o’clock news, write copy for the client, then go to bed.
If you’re going to grow your company as well as yourself,
start thinking like an athlete–maybe a corporate media
athlete–who understands energy, concentrating on things
that are top priority when necessary, and letting go when
you’re done.
There are three main elements that produce
stress: Physical, weight loss and mental stress.
Riding a stationary or street bike, lifting weights,
running, jogging, or forms of aerobic exercise,
when done right, produce stress where it counts,
in the muscles and vital organs of the body. The
entire physical exercise initiative is to ‘stress’
the muscles in your body, followed by a recovery
period. I mentioned weight-loss because I have
observed media people eat–in terms of what
and when they eat–and it is greatly distressing.
Obesity stresses your heart and vital organs,
which, in addition puts stress on life and living.
When exercising, the fundamental consideration
is cardio-training. In addition, proper nutrition is
vital to stress reduction.
Mental stress causes eventual burnout. You,
a loved one or colleague, may be suffering from
burnout, not just from pushing hard during tough
economic times, but as a result of everything
seemingly coming at you at once. Here are some
early warning signs to watch for:
1. Chronic fatigue, exhaustion, a sense of being
physically run down all the time
2. Anger at coworkers, the boss, family or loved
ones who are making demands
3. Self-criticism for putting up with the demands
4. Cynicism, negativity and irritability
5. A sense of being besieged by everything
6. Exploding easily at seemingly inconsequential
things such as taking out the trash or watching
little Joshua
7. Frequent headaches and gastrointestinal
disturbances
8. Weight loss or gain
9. Sleeplessness and depression
10. Shortness of breath
11. Suspiciousness
12. Feelings of helplessness
13. Increased degree of risk taking
Stress is thought to increase the risk of heart
disease and stroke in a variety of ways, such as
raising blood pressure and affecting how the
blood flows and clots. Sometimes we are not able
to change our environment to manage stress.
Imagery is a useful skill for relaxing in these situations.
Imagery is a valuable method of stress reduction
when you combine it with physical relaxation
techniques such as the breathing exercises I
learned from Dr. Andrew Weil. [See drweilselfhealing.
com or drweil.com] Try to get Dr. Weil’s book
Breathing: The Master Key to Self Healing, or
check out Conscious Breathing by Gay Hendricks;
Bantam Books. I read it 12 years ago and it still
works exceedingly well. The principle behind the
use of imagery for stress reduction is that you can
use the vividness of your imagination to recreate
and enjoy a scenario that was relaxing and extremely
enjoyable. The more intensely you imagine
the scene, the more relaxing the experience will
be. With self-guided imagery, you substitute your
actual experience with scenes from your imagination.
Your body reacts to these imagined scenes
as if they were real, thus calming you.
Other things you can do to reduce stress and
maintain peak performance are massage therapy,
acupuncture, and taking what I call a “news fast.”
The media lately is a constant source of worry
and fear. Even though it’s “part of the business,”
watching TV, listening to radio, going on the Internet
or reading the paper, all can cause stress.
Think of how we are bombarded with “bad
news.” Whether it’s the ongoing war in Iraq, high
energy prices, the housing fallout, fears of recession,
“if it bleeds, it leads!” Now, combine that kind
of news input in your brain with the pressures of
making budget, making collections, keeping the
job, cold calling, the new job, paying bills, the
kids, arguments on the home front, getting that
overdue promotion, getting fired, having road rage
in rush-hour traffic, the divorce, the wedding, the
new baby, the new house, credit cards maxed, I’d
say you’ve got a lot going on in your mind.
How about just turning off the media for a few
days? See if just that small change in your life
can make a difference. Go shopping. When I was
stressed (and made budget for the quarter), I’d
buzz off and buy something nice for my wife, the
kids or myself. That made me feel great! Sometimes
just blowing off the day when you have reached
your peak of stress is also good for a little peace
of mind. Wearing the stress in front of the client
isn’t cool either. They see it. So, blow off for a day.
The day after will be better.
Stress and anxiety attacks don’t go away unless
your mind tells them to. Hug your spouse. You got
married for thick or thin, in sickness and in health,
for better or for worse. That’s your real support
system. Take your spouse out to dinner, have a
glass of red wine. Unload some of the stuff. Love
is a great healer. Love IS the drug!
Take the kids to the ball game, play with them,
talk to them, and involve yourself in them. Hug your
pet. Research has proven that the unconditional
love we get from our pets is great for stress reduction.
Whenever I hold my little schnauzers Tigger
and Luci Roo, all my stress goes away. Get a copy
of Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff—and It’s All Small
Stuff by Richard Carlson. He says, “Often we allow
ourselves to get all worked up about things that,
upon closer examination, aren’t really that big a
deal.”
One last idea: Laugh more. There is nothing
like a good belly laugh. It’s so healing. Happy
people generally don’t get sick. You don’t stop
laughing when you get old. You get old when you
stop laughing.
Henry Ward Beecher once said, “A person
without a good sense of humor is like a wagon
without springs…jolted by every pebble in the
road.”
Whether you’re in a slump or have reached a
peak in your career, it’s time for rebirth.
Sooo. get on it already and stop the whining….lol.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Predictions for 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
My Belated Predictions For 2009
By Dave Morgan
While I'm generally not a big fan of making predictions, I do think that they can be fun and can spark valuable thought and controversy. With that in mind, I belatedly offer up some of my predictions for the advertising and media industry this year. Here they are:
1) The economy will get much, much worse before it gets better. It pains me to write this, but I truly believe it.
2) While we will lose a number of ad and media companies before the year is out, the survivors will be much better positioned and structured to survive the tough economy by virtue of consolidation and restructuring.
3) At least two new digital companies will launch this year that will eventually have an impact on the market at the scale of eBay, Amazon and perhaps even Google. (Yes, even a Google -- maybe.) Tough times are great times to start revolutionary companies.
4) We will see massive consolidation among traditional media companies. This is an easy one.
5) We will see some significant legislative actions against the advertising and marketing industry. While that won't be the direct objective of the policymakers -- they will be trying to protect consumer privacy or helping people lead healthier lives -- the industry will suffer significant collateral damage from these efforts.
6) TV will prosper. Not only will better and cheaper TVs, and more video gaming, help drive more viewing, but users playing Internet content on TV, with more people staying home in the evening, will give a big, big boost to television usage.
7) Optimism will rule. Times will be tough, but a new president, continued adoption of powerful and exciting new technologies, and a willingness to push forward for new solutions will win in the end. We will emerge better and won't give up.
What do you think?
My Belated Predictions For 2009
By Dave Morgan
While I'm generally not a big fan of making predictions, I do think that they can be fun and can spark valuable thought and controversy. With that in mind, I belatedly offer up some of my predictions for the advertising and media industry this year. Here they are:
1) The economy will get much, much worse before it gets better. It pains me to write this, but I truly believe it.
2) While we will lose a number of ad and media companies before the year is out, the survivors will be much better positioned and structured to survive the tough economy by virtue of consolidation and restructuring.
3) At least two new digital companies will launch this year that will eventually have an impact on the market at the scale of eBay, Amazon and perhaps even Google. (Yes, even a Google -- maybe.) Tough times are great times to start revolutionary companies.
4) We will see massive consolidation among traditional media companies. This is an easy one.
5) We will see some significant legislative actions against the advertising and marketing industry. While that won't be the direct objective of the policymakers -- they will be trying to protect consumer privacy or helping people lead healthier lives -- the industry will suffer significant collateral damage from these efforts.
6) TV will prosper. Not only will better and cheaper TVs, and more video gaming, help drive more viewing, but users playing Internet content on TV, with more people staying home in the evening, will give a big, big boost to television usage.
7) Optimism will rule. Times will be tough, but a new president, continued adoption of powerful and exciting new technologies, and a willingness to push forward for new solutions will win in the end. We will emerge better and won't give up.
What do you think?
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