Monday, December 29, 2025

5 Truths From 2025

 

Commentary0

5 Truths From 2025

Every year we pretend the big shifts sneak up on us. They do not. They arrive slowly, argue with us for years, and then finally refuse to be ignored.

2025 was one of those years. Not because something entirely new appeared, but because several long-running arguments ended. The evidence landed, consequences became visible, and denial got harder.

These are not predictions. They are five truths that settled in during 2025, whether we were ready for them or not.

Truth 1: Attention is the real extractive industry

By 2025, it became impossible to keep pretending that social media harms are accidental. Court filings, internal documents, and youth harm litigation made the business model unmistakably clear. Platforms are not optimized for connection or creativity. They are optimized for time spent, emotional intensity, and behavioral predictability.


Once you see attention as an extractive industry, the moral fog lifts. We are no longer arguing about individual posts or parental responsibility alone. We are arguing about whether it is acceptable to build trillion-dollar businesses by systematically destabilizing focus, mood, and social trust. You cannot moderate your way out of an incentive system designed to reward harm.

Truth 2: AI did not create the crisis - it exposed it

Generative AI became the perfect villain because it arrived loudly. But 2025 made something else clear. Our information ecosystem was already brittle. AI simply removed the remaining illusions.

This was the year deception stopped feeling shocking and started feeling routine: cloned voices, fake invoices, automated scams that were just convincing enough to work. Not spectacular deepfakes, but boring fraud at scale.

AI did not break trust. It revealed how little was left to break. Trust has been eroded by years of engagement-driven amplification, algorithmic opacity, and monetized outrage.

If we focus only on AI guardrails without addressing the systems that reward speed over verification and scale over accountability, we will keep chasing the symptoms instead of the disease.

Truth 3: Schools moved faster than governments

While lawmakers debated, schools acted. In 2025, phone-free school policies went mainstream. These were not pilots, nor experiments, but the creation of actual rules to be followed.

The argument was practical, not ideological: Schools could not function as learning environments while competing with systems designed to hijack attention all day long.

The results were telling. Teachers reported calmer classrooms. Students reported relief, even when they resisted at first. Parents saw changes they had been told were unrealistic.

2025 showed that when institutions take attention seriously, outcomes change. When they don't do this, nothing else works.

Truth 4: Courts, not Congress, became the engine of accountability

For more than a decade, tech accountability lived in hearings and white papers. In 2025, it moved into courtrooms. Discovery orders forced platforms to turn over internal research. Judges asked questions regulators never had. Evidence entered the public record.

By mid-2025, Laura Marquez-Garrett and the Social Media Victims Law Center were representing more than 40% of personal injury cases in coordinated proceedings involving nearly 800 families, over 1,100 school districts, and multiple state attorneys general.

The legal strategy was precise: Convince courts that social media platforms are products subject to product liability standards, not platforms shielded by Section 230.

When a federal judge denied motions to dismiss school district public nuisance claims — ruling that mental health harms forcing resource diversion met the elements of the claim—the discovery process became unavoidable. What companies knew, when they knew it, and how they responded became legal questions, not PR exercises.

As Marquez-Garrett put it: "Money's great but the number one issue is fixing these products. These parents are pissed off and if you gave them the choice between a little bit of money and stopping these companies, there's no question."

Women leaders from the victims' rights movement played a central role here, insisting that harm be described in human terms and entered into the record as such. This mattered because courts deal in facts, timelines, and sworn testimony. They do not accept vague promises about future fixes.

While Congress stalled, judges quietly advanced accountability case by case. This is slow work. It is imperfect. But it is real. In 2025, transparency advanced not because of sweeping legislation, but because the legal system followed the evidence.

Truth 5: Gen Z stopped waiting to be protected

One of the most important shifts of 2025 did not come from Washington or Silicon Valley. It came from young people themselves.

Gen Z organized economically, not just culturally, with advertiser pressure campaigns, creator walkouts, and by funding conversations.

Groups like Reconnect, led by Sean Killingsworth, helped frame this shift clearly. This was not about banning technology or opting out of the digital world. It was about refusing to accept environments that profit from harm.

Young people made it clear they understand leverage, that systems change fastest when harm has a cost. And they are increasingly willing to apply that pressure themselves.

This reframes the narrative. Young people are not passive victims of technology. They are sophisticated critics of systems that exploit them, and builders of alternatives that reflect different values.

Where this leaves us

Taken together, these truths point to something larger: The crisis we are living through is not primarily about misinformation, AI, or bad actors. It is about architecture.

We built systems that reward speed over reflection, scale over responsibility, and amplification over accountability.

Predictably, those systems failed us. 2025 was the year it became harder to deny that reality.

The next phase is not about debunking lies faster or banning one more feature. It is about redesigning the spaces where belief is formed, attention is traded, and trust is either earned or destroyed. That work is slower than outrage and harder than innovation theater.

Truth did not disappear. We buried it under systems that could not support it.

Now the question is simple: Do we want systems that support truth, or don't we?

Too Fast for FAST TV? Buckle Your Seatbelts

 

Commentary

Too Fast for FAST TV? Buckle Your Seatbelts

Worried about the latest data showing the entire connected TV (CTV) ecosystem is seeing more maturation?

What does this mean for businesses that are seemingly defying that trend -- FAST networks? Very little, apparently.

With consumer pricing for all products continuing to rise -- as well as premium subscription-based streaming platforms seeing nonstop price hikes -- will we see more TV subscribers flocking to Tubi, Roku Channel, Pluto TV and scores of other free, ad-supported/streaming platforms?

Even if you are a legacy TV company, you don’t want to leave any missing advertising dollars on the floor in this marketplace.

FAST is almost solely dependent on the ad business. And this comes as some big media holding companies have trimmed their advertising forecasts in 2025.

From a consumer experience perspective, maturity is still a ways off. Perhaps too much advertising on FAST platforms would result in a poor user experience and could cap viewing. Analysts worry that cost per unit (CPM) pricing would then suffer some declines.

And then there is the measurement issue. Standardizing viewing metrics seems far off for brands that want to analyze comparisons for proposed media campaigns.

Until then, no worries. Why? Double-digit percentage growth in all key areas is still on track to come in 2026 and well beyond with more viewers, channel count expansion and rising ad dollars.

Mordor Intelligence estimates that the global FAST market will have compounded average growth of over 17% through the next five years, rising to $27.14 billion. This year is estimated to hit $12.26 billion.

Right now there are 1,850 active FAST channels globally, up 14% since the first quarter of this year, and over 70% higher since 2023, according to Nielsen’s Gracenote.

Viewing is much on the same trend line. Next year, hours are likely to grow 30-50% over 2025 in the U.S. in many markets, according to eMarketer.

So if FAST continues to get top speed, start placing your bets on who could be running out of gas. Soon?

This column was previously published in TV Watch on November 26, 2025.

Gatekeepers: What's Reshaping Our Industry In 2026

 

Commentary

From Media Shakeups to AI Gatekeepers: What's Reshaping Our Industry In 2026

For years we’ve talked about disruption being on the horizon, from the rise of “internet of things” to proliferation of consumer data to AI upending all aspects of marketing. But as we read the tea leaves for 2026, I believe the new year will bring seismic shifts across the media and content ecosystem. 

Specifically, I’m betting on four key shifts that will redefine the role of agencies, how brands future-proof themselves and, ultimately, what consumers will pay attention to. Here they are:

Streaming consolidation is coming, and it will reshape the media map. Let’s start with the obvious: there are too many platforms and streamers chasing too little attention. As AI accelerates the production of low-cost, throwaway content, studios and streaming investments will continue to face shrinking margins and rising competition for ad dollars. You can’t win that game with volume anymore. You win it with scale. 

Netflix acquiring Warner Bros. is just the start. In 2026, consolidation becomes unavoidable. This shift won’t just change where money flows, it will fundamentally alter how we think about planning, buying, and measuring media. Agencies who understand platform economics will thrive.


Marketing moves from influencing human behavior to influencing AI. 2026 will redefine the digital customer journey. AI browsers and ad-supported large language models (LLMs) will become the new gatekeepers of discovery, comparison, and decision-making. Consumers won’t just search for products, they’ll delegate the entire process to their AI agents. Auction dynamics, search and CX will all change. The incumbent biddable players and search giants will be forced to adapt and play ball.

Brands will need model context protocols the same way they once needed SEO strategies. If your product isn’t easily understandable, verifiable, and optimizable for an AI agent’s decision logic, you won’t even make it into the consideration set. 

Whitespace for human-led creative in an AI world.  The next era of agencies won’t be defined by project management, production scale, or the ability to deliver work fast. Those functions are already being automated. The next crop of great agencies will be the ones that monetize strategy, intellectual property, and cultural insight. They’ll scale their best thinkers with AI -- not to do more work, but to focus on deeper, more meaningful brand problems.

Human-led creative rooted in human insights, lived experience and emotional nuance that no model or AI could emulate will become a premium offering. 

The real world makes a comeback. Consumers have been slowly gravitating back toward real human interaction. We see this trend reflected in ticket sales, retail foot traffic, and community events. People are tired of scrolling. They want connection.

In 2026, experiential marketing will surge as a strategic engine for influence. Everyday people will become the new creators, driving user-generated content from authentic, unscripted moments. Brands will start measuring ROI around “people as media,” valuing the impact of thousands of imperfect but credible creators over a handful of polished influencers.

Venues, sponsorship opportunities, and brands participating IRL will be critical to winning the ground war for attention.

These shifts share a single truth: Automation has commoditized everything except human ingenuity. In 2026, the marketers that succeed won’t just adopt AI, they’ll pair it with the kind of human insights no model can replicate.

End-Of-Year Farewell to The Legends We Lost In 2025

 As we say farewell to 2025, we can also remember some of the great artists who entertained us for generations and gave us many fun nights on the screen to take us away from what each of us might have endured otherwise. We at LeNoble's Media Insights hope you have enjoyed and learned more about the crazy world of media marketing since 2008. WE wish each of you and very happy, peaceful and abundant 2026! 

Commentary

End-Of-Year Farewell to The Legends We Lost In 2025

As 2025 comes to a close, the TV Blog says good-bye to the TV greats who left us this year -- the actors, reality stars, game show hosts, sportscasters, newsmen, newswomen, producers and directors who created the great TV moments we will long remember.

The death of Malcolm-Jamal Warner, who drowned in the ocean off a Costa Rican beach last July, shocked us all.

Warner, 54, was mourned by tens of millions who watched him grow up as one of the child stars of “The Cosby Show.”

If Warner’s death was shocking, the violent deaths of Rob Reiner and his wife earlier this month were shocking and incomprehensible. 

The son of Carl Reiner, Rob Reiner made history as one of the four principal cast members on “All in the Family."


Rock legend Ozzy Osbourne was the star of an MTV reality-TV series centered on his family that set a standard for family reality shows that has rarely been equaled in the years since “The Osbournes” aired from 2002 to 2005.

Pro wrestling star Hulk Hogan had a family reality show of his own for a while, but he will always be remembered as one of the most colorful characters in the long history of TV wrestling.

Everybody knows the name of George Wendt, who was unforgettable in the role of the barfly Norm in “Cheers.”

Nor will we ever forget Loretta Swit, luminous star of “M*A*S*H” in the role of Margaret “Hot Lips” Houlihan.

Today, we say a final farewell to sitcom stars Jay North (“Dennis the Menace”), Loni Anderson (“WKRP in Cincinnati”), Danielle Spencer (“What’s Happening!!”), Polly “Kiss My Grits” Holliday (“Alice”), Lynn Hamilton (“Sanford and Son”), Pat Crowley (“Please Don’t Eat the Daisies”) and Jon Miyahara (“Superstore”).

One sitcom star deserves special recognition here -- the great Dame Patricia Routledge, 96 -- who played one of the funniest and most endearing characters in the history of TV comedy, the socially striving Hyacinth Bucket (pronounced “bouquet”) in the British sitcom “Keeping Up Appearances.”

Other funny ladies we lost this year will long be remembered by anyone who saw them perform -- Ruth Buzzi from “Rowan and Martin’s Laugh-In” and “Hee Haw’s” Lulu Roman.

This year, we lost one of the biggest stars of TV history -- Richard Chamberlain, star of “Dr. Kildare” and two smash-hit miniseries, “Shogun” and “The Thorn Birds.”

From the world of TV drama, we also remember Jean Marsh (“Upstairs, Downstairs”), Pauline Collins (“Upstairs, Downstairs”, “Bleak House”), Harris Yulin (“24,” “Ozark”), Julian McMahon (“Nip/Tuck,” “Charmed”), Gil Gerard (“Buck Rogers in the 25th Century”), Isabell Tate (“9-1-1: Nashville”) and Michelle Trachtenberg (“Buffy the Vampire Slayer,” “Gossip Girl”).

From the long-ago world of old TV, we say farewell to Joey D. Vieira (“Lassie”), Will Hutchins (“Sugarfoot”), Randy Boone (“The Virginian”), Kenneth Washington (“Adam-12,” “Hogan’s Heroes”) and the incomparable June Lockhart (“Lassie,” “Lost in Space”).

At year’s end, we say good-bye to Food Network star Anne Burrell, “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” musical director and bandleader Cleto Escobedo III, Pamela Bach (“Baywatch,” wife of co-star David Hasselhoff), Phil Robertson (“Duck Dynasty”), game-show host Wink Martindale and soap star Eileen Fulton, who starred in “As The World Turns” for 50 years.

Add to that list teen idol Bobby Sherman (“Here Come the Brides”), Rick Hurst (“The Dukes of Hazzard”), televangelist Jimmy Swaggert, Jerry Adler (“The Sopranos”), Lynne Marie Stewart (“Pee Wee’s Playhouse”) and Marilyn Howard Ellman, daughter of Curly Howard of “The Three Stooges.”

Anthony Geary (“General Hospital”) was one of the biggest stars in the history of afternoon soaps.

Composer Lalo Schifrin wrote the “Mission: Impossible” theme. PBS fitness instructor Mary Ann Wilson (“Sit and Be Fit”) was an inductee in the National Fitness Hall of Fame.

The list of the legends we lost in 2025 includes the man who brought us “Twin Peaks,” director David Lynch; commercial pitchman extraordinaire and boxing champion George Foreman; and producer/director Don Mischer, producer of Super Bowl halftime shows, Emmy and Oscar shows, televised political conventions and so much more.

From the world of TV and radio news, we remember Bill Moyers, David Gergen, CNN’s Charles Bierbauer and Peter Arnett, Oklahoma weatherman Gary England, ABC’s Jim Avila, CBS Radio newsman Mark Knoller and from public radio, Susan Stamberg and Leonard Lopate.

The TV sports world lost sportscaster and actor Bob Uecker (“Mr. Belvedere”), incomparable Olympics figure-skating analyst Dick Button, commentator Al Trautwig, ESPN’s Mike Patrick, sportscaster Bob Trumpy and boxing commentator Alex Wallau, who worked alongside Howard Cosell and eventually became president of ABC.

Above photo courtesy of Fox: Malcolm-Jamal Warner’s final TV appearance -- a guest role on the Fox series “Murder in a Small Town” that aired posthumously in October. 


Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Before 2026 starts, a breakdown of what's coming...

 


NEXT UP: THE AFFINITY ECONOMY

Before 2026 starts, a breakdown of what's coming...

Happy Monday Peaceniks. Are you ready for what’s next?

2026 starts in just two weeks. My new year’s resolution for Media is to force the community, and those who cover it, to finally stop their obsessive navel-gazing and start listening to our audiences.

In 2025, the Media industry wasted so much time, money, and energy looking backward for answers. The perfect case study for this misspent bandwidth is the irrational bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery (Disco Bros) that’s at the center of everyone’s attention as the year ends.


Rather than transforming for what’s ahead, Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix are rabidly competing to overpay for Zaslav’s dying enterprise - while destroying the value of their own companies in the process. Recently, I broke down how little logic there is behind Netflix’s WBD bid and why Nepo Kid Ellison’s escalation makes even less sense (and cents).

Media’s most powerful men are all desperately grasping for the past; for a Hollywood that no longer exists and never will again. We are watching the “best minds of our generation” battling to be the Kings of irrelevancy.


So, why does Media do this to themselves? Because Trad Media consistently ignores the data of its own demise, staring them right in the face.

Examples: Netflix’s viewership has been flat for at least two years. Paramount’s $7 billion payout for UFC can never break even. Comcast is spinning out the traditional cable networks that generate free cash flow, while simultaneously trying to buy two other, very old school Media giants - ITV and WBD - even as their core business, broadband, flatlines. Yet the easily-distracted analysts who cover the industry never ask its leaders the right (or hard) questions. They’re far too busy covering Media’s silly horse races.

The Moguls no longer run our industry. That is why they are spinning out of control. The audiences are now in complete control of their entertainment. That user-centric gravity has created the radical fragmentation that will define Media - in 2026 and forever more. This makes our business much more complicated and difficult than earlier eras and makes our old business models irrelevant.

Above, I’ve posted a full speech I gave recently for The International Emmys - where I spoke actual truth to the powers that be. I strived to offer focus for what’s happening around us right now and point us toward the horizon for where Media is going. The presentation is packed with data that represents our audiences, not our C-Suites, and shows real-world examples of the transformation the industry must embrace if its going to meet the moment that 2026 will be.

Radical transformation is possible. I promise. The case studies above prove it. However, the key to our successful evolution is to put away the childish bullshit of our past and start listening to our audiences. If we follow them, they will lead us to the future.

If you dig the video and want the slides that go with it, below my sign off, you’ll find a link for a downloadable PDF of all the slides I presented.

Happy Festivus for The Rest of Us!

Losing 2026 Before It Starts: The Real Cost of a Wait and See Marketing Budget

 

Commentary

Losing 2026 Before It Starts: The Real Cost of a Wait and See Marketing Budget

This isn’t a typical year-end budget delay.

For companies on a calendar-year fiscal, budgets are typically directionally set by October, adjusted in November, and finalized before Thanksgiving.

This year, many brands entered December with no clarity, no commitment, and no confidence in what comes next. More concerning, some are now heading into January in the same position.

Scopes are “verbally approved,” but nothing is signed. Plans exist in theory, but not in practice. Teams are told to be ready yet given no authority to move.

What’s different isn’t the economy. It’s how decisions are being made.

Marketing plans aren’t being debated, they’re being paused. Budgets aren’t being cut, they’re being held hostage to new product launches, M&A possibilities, board optics, and a growing fear of being wrong at the wrong time. The result is a new kind of paralysis. Brands technically have money, but no permission to use it.


And while leadership waits for certainty, the market keeps moving.

Decline begins long before the shelf.

Decline begins in memory. This is why mental availability, not short-term efficiency, becomes the real battleground when budgets stall. Most of any brand’s consumers are light and infrequent buyers, and they forget fast. They reach for the brand that comes to mind now because they’re seeing it.

On average, brands lose roughly 10 percent of market share in the first year without advertising, 20 percent by the second year, and close to 30 percent by the third, according to multiple Ehrenberg-Bass Institute and Journal of Advertising Research studies.

Earlier this fall, we interviewed a cross-section of adult U.S. consumers and found 78% trust advertised brands more, while 54% forget brands that stop advertising. And in a controlled test, a single ad for a mid-tier cheese brand increased purchase intent by 43%.

There is nothing conservative about underinvesting.

Right now, media inflation has cooled and competitive noise has softened in many categories. This creates a rare moment where every dollar buys atypical reach and share of voice. Move now and you can gain ground. Wait and you’ll likely reenter a louder and more expensive marketplace with a smaller brand.

Budgeting approaches that feel responsible, such as percent of sales, competitive parity, or repeating last year’s spend, systematically underestimate what growth requires. They anchor decisions to habit and benchmarks rather than evidence.

Instead, base budgets on where your brand’s true response curve sits, and what the marginal return of the next incremental dollar is. To get those answers, bypass your benchmarks or dashboards and model spend against business outcomes over time, isolating how incremental dollars perform as investment scales.


If your budget is frozen or shrinking, here is how to respond.

This is not the moment to wait for clarity. It is the moment to walk into the C-suite with a clear, defensible plan grounded in evidence, not instinct.

Protect continuity above everything else. 

Even lean, continuous advertising outperforms stop-start strategies because mental availability erodes faster than sales data reveals. Once memory decays, recovery costs rise sharply.

Frame marketing as risk mitigation, not upside. 

Advertising is not just a growth lever. It is a risk-reduction tool. Sustained investment lowers price sensitivity, protects margin, and reduces the long-term cost of rebuilding demand. Cutting marketing may improve short-term optics, but it increases downside exposure and future capital requirements.

Concentrate where it counts. 

Underfunded media does not scale down gracefully. It collapses. When weekly reach drops below a critical threshold, brands stop reaching light buyers and begin advertising to the same people more often. If reductions are unavoidable, prioritize channels, assets, and moments that deliver real weekly reach and reinforce memory, not superficial efficiency.

Bring modeling, not anecdotes. 

Finance does not need belief. They need scenarios. Show what happens if spend is cut, held, or increased. Quantify the marginal return of incremental dollars, the cost of delay, and the upside of winning.

The most effective teams go further, modeling what earning even one additional share point would mean in revenue, margin, and long-term brand value. The goal is not to defend marketing. It is to make the tradeoffs visible, the risks explicit, and the growth opportunity concrete.